dRavidC's AFL 2011

[dRavidC]

AFL 26/3

Game: Brisbane vs Fremantle

Bet: Over 179.5 WON (very very very close)

First week of the AFL so it's hard to find value with the lines. Weather is good and both these sides have good forwards in their side, and we could get a bit of a shootout here. I've capped the game total at around 190-200. Remember this is the first week of the AFL so either bet small or don't bet at all. Wait till we see how every team performs at least for a week or two until we can bet on the side with some kind of confidence.

2011 AFL Season Record: 1 - 0 (100%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 1/4

Game: St Kilda vs Richmond

Bet: Over 171.5 WON (with 8 minutes to go in the game!)

2011 AFL Season Record: 2 - 0 (100%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 2/4

Gonna continue to bet the over until it faults me .

Game: Gold Coast vs Carlton

Bet: Over 177.5 WON (won with a full 30 minute quarter to go. easiest win ever!)

Game: Fremantle vs Geelong

Bet: Over 190.5 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 3 - 1 (75%)

[Alt75]

The over on the Blues v Suns game is 10 points off a win in the 3rd quarter. Freo v Geelong is on track to go over 200 too.

Well called if you get both.

[dRavidC]

The over on the Blues v Suns game is 10 points off a win in the 3rd quarter. Freo v Geelong is on track to go over 200 too.

Well called if you get both.

Thanks Alt75, haha the gold coast carlton total was just way too easy.

The one thing that scares me about these easy wins is that the bookies are gonna inflate the game totals so that it starts to become unplayable.

[Alt75]

I thought with the good defense the Suns showed in pre-season and the storms forecast for Brisbane, that never bloody came... the under would have been the right call. Oh well win some lose some

[dRavidC]

damn it a dud 3rd quarter scoring-wise (24 points!!!!). 62 required from the 4th quarter... Looks like my first lost of the season )=.

[ipod]

^^^ probley wont be the last

[dRavidC]

^^^ probley wont be the last

thanks ipod. i feel a lot better about the loss now...

i still can't believe two sides can only muster 24 points in 30 minutes of footy in perfect conditions! pathetic. but i can't complain after riding the over for 3 straight games . well onto 2morro's games.

[Alt75]

Bad luck on the Freo Geelong over, at least you got 1 right tonight.

[dRavidC]

AFL 3/4


Game: Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane

Bet: Over 180.5 LOSS

Game: Sydney vs Essendon

Bet: Over 179.5 WON

Added:

Game: Hawthorn vs Melbourne

Bet: Over 180.5 WON

last bet to wrap up the day. betting my winnings (minus stake amount) from the syd vs essendon game ($90).

2011 AFL Season Record: 5 - 2 (71.43%)

[Alt75]

Bulldogs v Lions need 41 points in last 5-7 mins. Don't count on Lions scoring much this year, especially without Brown for 8 weeks.

[dRavidC]

Bulldogs v Lions need 41 points in last 5-7 mins. Don't count on Lions scoring much this year, especially without Brown for 8 weeks.

yeah damn i didn't know brown was out till after i betted. but it's alright i didn't put in a lot. the moment i found out brown wasn't playing i knew the bet was doomed.

[dRavidC]

AFL 8/4


Game: Collingwood vs Carlton

Bet: Over 190.5 LOSS

190.5 looks like a really high total but I think there is some value in it. Both these teams are probably two of the best offensive teams in the comp. Collingwood are averaging 149 points in their first two games and Carlton are avaeraging 137.5 points a game. I see two ways in which the game total will go over:
1. Collingwood blows Carlton out with a "130 - 80" type scoreline.
2. Goal-for-goal match in which the game is decided in the last 5 minutes. A "112 - 100" type scoreline.

Even if you're not betting on this game, I'd advise you watch this if you're an AFL fan as these are the two hottest teams playing against each other! Expecting a goal-fest!!

2011 AFL Season Record: 5 - 3 (62.55%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 10/4

Game: Melbourne vs Brisbane

Bet: Melbourne -16.5 1st half LOSS

Game: Geelong vs Port Adelaide WON

Bet: Under 190.5

2011 AFL Season Record: 6 - 4 (60.00%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 15/4

Game: Richmond vs Collingwood

Bet: collingwood >39.5 WON

2011 AFL Season Record: 7 - 4 (63.64%)

[Pherst]

I reckon Collingwood will have that covered by quarter time...

[ipod]

collingwood are the bet of the year easy money and fine weather in melbourn i hear the pies will sign victory song at halftime

[Gee]

yes, easy bet. i took 43.5 - we all playing it too safe...

edit: sorry.

[dRavidC]

last night was easy money i wish i took more points than just >39. oh well a win is a win

[dRavidC]

AFL 16/4

Game: Hawthorn vs West Coast

Bet: Over 178.5 LOSS


Game: Carlton vs Essendon

Bet: Over 200.5 LOSS

Wow this is the highest total posted by the bookies in the 2011 AFL season. And they've done so for good reason. These are probably two of the hottest playing and scoring teams behind Collingwood. The side is probably a 50/50 call. Both teams are Victoria-based so I doubt home/away plays too much of a factor here especially since both clubs have such a large fan base all around Australia. Carlton have been able to beat the living daylights out of the bad teams but they have yet to beat a premiership contender. Essendon have been playing so well accounting for Western Bulldogs at home and St Kilda on the road but faltered badly against Sydney in Sydney. The odds are split even for good reason. Under perfect footy conditions, I think both teams will put up a high scoring affair which should be decided in the last few minutes of the game. Expecting the total to sail over 200 here.

2011 AFL Season Record: 7 - 6 (53.85%)

[therealdealau]

good luck with your plays

i'm on carlton heads up!

[dRavidC]

good luck with your plays

i'm on carlton heads up!

good luck mate! if i had to pick a side i'd also be going carlton.

[beeps220]

BOL

I went big on Bombers and the over

[sportscash]

Yeah go Bombers good luck with the over but its not a good start

[dRavidC]

yeah not a great start at all, hoping goals start piling on in the 2nd quarter... very scrappy game. and who wudda thought carlton would be scoreless in the 30 minutes of afl footy.

[jhol3990]

and essendon at -2 knees in the first quarter - bad luck that one

[dRavidC]

notes:

hawthorne vs west coast: hawthorne are slow starters so if they get their act together in the 2nd half we could see a goal fest like we did when they played against melbourne. Need 113 in the 2nd half.

carlton vs essendon: there were good signs in the 2nd quarter with both teams upping the tempo and scoring some goals (esp. Carlton). Still require 128 in the 2nd half and with Essendon 2 men down, I think fatigue hits them and Carlton put on a goal fest. I see this game as having more chance of hitting than the previous one. In other words, both bets look cooked.

[dRavidC]

omg 3 draws!!!!!!!!!!!! It's rare to even have 1 draw in an entire season and we've got 3 in 4 rounds!!!!

match-fixing anyone?

[dRavidC]

AFL 21/4

Game: Brisbane vs St Kilda

Bet: Over 173.5 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 7 - 7 (50.00%)

[Gee]

Nice Dravid. Over has started well for us.

Scary first 5-10 mins where I nearly bought out. Lucky I didn't pull the trigger.

[Gee]

lol. looks i mushed your bet, sorry.

took them 5 mins ago (about 5 mins to go) for u/80.5 1H. Lets have a big 2nd half now.

now i just need bris +21.5

[dRavidC]

yeah an awfully weird afl game...

60 scored in the 1st qtr 16 scored in the next. hopefully we'll have two high scoring quarters in the 2nd half.

[dRavidC]

AFL 23/4

Game: Port Adelaide vs Gold Coast

Bet: Gold Coast + 31.5 1st half WON

Just can't back Gold Coast with the points for the full game until they give me reason to. But I think they can take a lead in this one or least keep the game within 31.5 points. Cause really if they're down by 40-50+ points at half time, they're gonna end up losing by 80-90 points.

2011 AFL Season Record: 8 - 7 (53.33%)

[Pherst]

GC were paying $12 h2h for the win today. I thought about it but because it was in SA I left it alone...