2010 AFL season thread

[nocode1]

Got freo -1

Thanks for ruining a great weekend Bulldogs

[hedgejob]

Thank you Freo, my biggest bet of the weekend

[b3diddy]

Bulldog -8.5 (1.91) 2x
Crows ML (1.94) 2x
Pies/Dogs U195.5 (1.90) 1x

0-3 (down 5.4units) for the day

Still a good round 1 though. Up 13.6units

Great work to everyone who backed Freo!!

Looking forward to next week!! Im thinking i will try a PYOL mutli

[hedgejob]

Yeah Dogs ruined a perfect AFL weekend, still great work all round guys (BTW I'm a Crows supporter ).

[TwoWays]

Got Adelaide SU, but not liking it.

Guess I'll just be a spectator today and root for Duke to win. I'll get'em this coming week.

Ya'll need to tell me no if I make another square play, ok?

[alias69]

i took +3.5 freo 2nd half. 5u winner

thank u crows for killing my multis. couldnt even cover +39.5

[TwoWays]

Thank you Freo, my biggest bet of the weekend

I wanted to be a part of this toast, too.

[hedgejob]

I was pounding the table all weekend about Dockers being my fav bet, made a few posts about it. Don't worry though, more toasting to come next weekend.

[nocode1]

0-3 (down 5.4units) for the day

Still a good round 1 though. Up 13.6units

Great work to everyone who backed Freo!!

Looking forward to next week!! Im thinking i will try a PYOL mutli

Nice weekend for ya diddy....lets get those PYOL for round 2

[nocode1]

I was pounding the table all weekend about Dockers being my fav bet, made a few posts about it. Don't worry though, more toasting to come next weekend.

Yeah sucks when you dont pull the trigger on a bet you really like.....oh well get em next week

[kingfish28]

Sportingbet.com.au
Sportsbet.com.au
Pinnacle Sports
Luxbet.com
betfair.com
Centrebet.com.au (only book I know of that offers total betting)

tab.com.au also offers total betting

[kingfish28]

Hey guys just got a chance to get on now been on the poker tables, thank god the poker got me a fair profit. Lost the big PYOL multi but that's how it goes ended up cashing in on several diff bets in the freo game as I got really confident closer to game time, freo -10, freo tribet over 15.5 and freo over 39 that was a last minute bet. Got done on the over but not a bad weekend overall

[nocode1]

Nice one Kingfish good to hear you had a good weekend

[hels]

Hey guys just got a chance to get on now been on the poker tables, thank god the poker got me a fair profit. Lost the big PYOL multi but that's how it goes ended up cashing in on several diff bets in the freo game as I got really confident closer to game time, freo -10, freo tribet over 15.5 and freo over 39 that was a last minute bet. Got done on the over but not a bad weekend overall

Didn't know you played poker as well. I'm guessing you play live and not online right? Back in Canada I was a regular and did very very well but the casinos in Canada only play limit hold'em, not no limit. Then coming over to the oz I've only seen no limit and on the GC I would go to Conrad Jupiter's quite often and I did a little better than break even over the long run (100s of hours). Living in Brisbane now and can't stand the max buy-in of only $200 for $2.50/5.00 What city are you in kingfish and what type of limits/buyins are offered? I miss the $50/$100 games on tuesday nights back at the Brantford Casino and always a $20/$40 around the clock.

[kingfish28]

Didn't know you played poker as well. I'm guessing you play live and not online right? Back in Canada I was a regular and did very very well but the casinos in Canada only play limit hold'em, not no limit. Then coming over to the oz I've only seen no limit and on the GC I would go to Conrad Jupiter's quite often and I did a little better than break
even over the long run (100s of hours). Living in Brisbane now and can't stand the max buy-in of only $200 for $2.50/5.00 What city are you in kingfish and what type of limits/buyins are
offered? I miss the $50/$100 games on tuesday nights back at the Brantford Casino and always a $20/$40 around the clock.

I'm in Melbourne hels, I play at crown on the 2/5 & 5/10 tables. 2/5 is good coz u can jump on with a max buyin of $500 and easily have people with stacks of 3-4k in front of them, early dbl up and ur in for a long night. 5/10 can get out of hand very quickly if ur not switched on. Last night was a local game, $50 buy in each 6 players just couple cuzs and friends winner takes all. Had 3 games last nite won 2 which was a nice collect after the digs hurt me but got a lovely few collects back on freo.

[hels]

I'm in Melbourne hels, I play at crown on the 2/5 & 5/10 tables. 2/5 is good coz u can jump on with a max buyin of $500 and easily have people with stacks of 3-4k in front of them, early dbl up and ur in for a long night. 5/10 can get out of hand very quickly if ur not switched on. Last night was a local game, $50 buy in each 6 players just couple cuzs and friends winner takes all. Had 3 games last nite won 2 which was a nice collect after the digs hurt me but got a lovely few collects back on freo.

Had freo and the under so that game made me weekend finish off quite nicely
Conrad Jups was similar to the Crown in that the 2/5 would have some good size stacks upon sitting down. Got to know all the regulars and basically would wait for the unfamiliar faces wanting to give it a go and watch them put the free cash on the table. I've been to the crown once and I know there's lots and lots and lots of fish giving their money away there. Patience + tight-aggressive play = consistent
earnings

[hels]

jesus, i just looked at the week 2's opening odds and some pretty lopsided favs:

Collingwood 1.05
Melbourne 8.50

St. Kilda 1.12
North Melbourne 5.75

I didn't think this type of fav was possible in week 2 of the season. And I don't care who they're playing, the Magpies don't deserve to be 1.05 favs versus anyone. Whatever the spread comes out hit it early for Melbourne as it will drop closer to even by gametime and you will get hedge value. Might only make a couple bucks off of it, but hey it's better than losing a couple bucks right? I would suspect with 1.05 ML the Spread will be -54.5 or something and probably about -51.5 by gametime

[Domestic]

jesus, i just looked at the week 2's opening odds and some pretty lopsided favs: Collingwood 1.05 Melbourne 8.50 St. Kilda 1.12 North Melbourne 5.75 I didn't think this type of fav was possible in week 2 of the season. And I don't care who they're playing, the Magpies don't deserve to be 1.05 favs versus anyone. Whatever the spread comes out hit it early for Melbourne as it will drop closer to even by gametime and you will get hedge value. Might only make a couple bucks off of it, but hey it's better than losing a couple bucks right? I would suspect with 1.05 ML the Spread will be -54.5 or something and probably about -51.5 by gametime

Only 48.5 at the moment at Centrebet.

[kingfish28]

Hels I wouldn't be touching anything until melb bring out there line up. If they don't get any players back they will get a hiding. Coll while I don't think there a genuine threat to the flag are a professional outfit with a coach like malthouse. If u r on centrebet take around -34 when it comes out and they will cover easy and be
around $1.60 very easy
money. Same with the dogs, can't wait woohoo cash time

[nocode1]

Hi guys just had a quick look at Round 2 on centrebet, they only have the head to head, +24.5,+39.5 and tri bet up.
This is what i like at this early stage.

1.34 CARLTON (Handicap +39.5)
1.28 PORT ADELAIDE (Handicap +39.5)
1.32 FREMANTLE (Handicap +39.5)
1.16 COLLINGWOOD | Over 15.5 Points
1.16 WESTERN BULLDOGS | Over 15.5 Points
1.17 ADELAIDE (Handicap +24.5)
1.31 ST KILDA | Over 15.5 Points
Legs : 7
4.66

I think Carlton will serve it up to Brisbane who only have a 5 day break, dont know why Brisbane are that short(not complaining haha).
Also i reckon Freo will give Essendon more than a run for their money, again no idea why the bombers are that short.
Same goes for Port adelaide, what have west coast done to be short against port hmmmm.
I still might give the + teams a few more points once PYOL comes out, only a few though
The other 3 speak for themselves

Thoughts please

[hels]

I haven't made any plays yet but am unhappy with Melbourne at +48.5. I was hoping/expecting around 54.5 but oh well, it is how it is. Once the lineup is out there'll definitely be some value to make a play. +48.5 this early in the season is still alot of points and it all depends on which side shows up in the 4th quarter. Collingwood being at home would make me suspect they would play the full 80 and outscore Melb at least 3 or 4 goals in the 4th...

[kingfish28]

I haven't made any plays yet but am unhappy with Melbourne at +48.5. I was hoping/expecting around 54.5 but oh well, it is how it is. Once the lineup is out there'll definitely be some value to make a play. +48.5 this early in the season is still alot of points and it all depends on which side shows up in the 4th quarter. Collingwood being at home would make me suspect they would play the full 80 and outscore Melb at least 3 or 4 goals in the 4th...

yeah it is alot of points but what melb showed last week there going to get a hiding. With a full list I might take the start with how bad they are and injuries coll to run right away from melb. 10 goals+

[Domestic]

I think Mick Malthouse is the kind of guy that would want his team to continue going hard in the fourth quarter and not let up like Hawthorn did, think I will stay away from this game unless I see some value in the total.

[hels]

I think Mick Malthouse is the kind of guy that would want his team to continue going hard in the fourth quarter and not let up like Hawthorn did, think I will stay away from this game unless I see some value in the total.

The total will actually be a really tough call to get a good read on in this matchup. It's the typical good vs. bad expected to be a 48 point victory. If Collingwood is going to play the whole game and not kick the ball in circles the final 10 minutes over might be the pick.

[kingfish28]

The total will actually be a really tough call to get a good read on in this matchup. It's the typical good vs. bad expected to be a 48 point victory. If Collingwood is going to play the whole game and not kick the ball in circles the final 10 minutes over might be the pick.

with the line being around 50 u would basically have to workout what coll is going to score in order to workout if the total is any value. Coll should score around 120-130 but can see melb scoring 80 more like 60. Hopefully total is in the 190's then I'll be on the under

[camel]

Once again, there's some juicy lines out there.

Pies at -44.5, but i hate betting with the pies. Not touching it as i still don't trust them.

The ones that stick out for me right now are:

Sydney (away @ +12.5)
Fremantle (away @ +15.5)
Port (away @ +13.5) - Eagles to miss LeCras who should be out with a hammy injury.

Another one to add will be Lions (home @ -18.5). I still question Carlton's foward line and with Judd still out of the line up, i expect the Lions to belt the Blues by at least 6+ goals.

[Domestic]

Once again, there's some juicy lines out there. Pies at -44.5, but i hate betting with the pies. Not touching it as i still don't trust them. The ones that stick out for me right now are: Sydney (away @ +12.5) Fremantle (away @ +15.5) Port (away @ +13.5)

I like the Swans away too.

[camel]

After looking at them more and more, there's a chance i'll go for a straight win as well. All 3 teams are hovering around the $2.50 mark for the win.

[TwoWays]

Who do we like in this game: Carlton vs. Brisbane ?

[kingfish28]

Who do we like in this game: Carlton vs. Brisbane ?

Bris should win at hm but by how much well that's a hard one. Bris were cramping up really bad last week all over the ground and with a 5 day backup could be a little worrying. I'd say bris by 2-3 goals

[Domestic]

After looking at them more and more, there's a chance i'll go for a straight win as well. All 3 teams are hovering around the $2.50 mark for the win.

Yeah, do you know how many players Adelaide are getting back form injury this week? I can't see Adelaide improving enough to comfortably beat Sydney in a week's time and the Swans were pretty sharp against the saints on Saturday.

[camel]

Yeah, do you know how many players Adelaide are getting back form injury this week? I can't see Adelaide improving enough to comfortably beat Sydney in a week's time and the Swans were pretty sharp against the saints on Saturday.

From what i've been reading, Burton and Knights should be training this week although i'm not sure if they'll be playing. Stevens also picked up a knock to the head against the Dockers on Sunday.

[Domestic]

Ok, cool, thanks.

[camel]

Just on the Crows/Swans game, one thing i did pick up after watching the Swans is that they love to have Malceski and Kennelly filling the gaps on their half back line. They run the ball out pretty good and if the crows midfield can't hit their forward targets, then i'd say the ball will be coming out very quickly.

Swans just need to learn from the Crows previous game is that forward pressure will kill the Crows backline. If they can do that, they'll win big.

[kingsr]

Once again, there's some juicy lines out there.

Pies at -44.5, but i hate betting with the pies. Not touching it as i still don't trust them.

The ones that stick out for me right now are:

Sydney (away @ +12.5)
Fremantle (away @ +15.5)
Port (away @ +13.5) - Eagles to miss LeCras who should be out with a hammy injury.

Another one to add will be Lions (home @ -18.5). I still question Carlton's foward line and with Judd still out of the line up, i expect the Lions to belt the Blues by at least 6+ goals.

I like all those bets on the ML BOL