Hels' NRL Thread -- Let's Drive this Shit!!

[Wade Dwayne]

which online books give you over unders Hels?

[kingsr]

I use centrebet.com.au and sportsbet.com.au

[aunty jack]

if you have the time, it pays to scout around. i've found that some centrebet totals seem to be slightly sharper than the tab.

eg. centrebet had the titans/warriors total at 43.5 while i think it was 45.5 on the tab. tonight, centrebet's total was 43... while tab was pegged at 42.5.

hels, i've never used this icon before... but your score prediction of 26-22 certainly deserves a hats off.

cheers.

[hels]

The game didn't quite go as I thought it would but the result was what I was looking for and obviously happy for that. Do you often post your plays aunty jack??? I would love to hear from you pregame as it sounds you have some good picks and I'm happy that we were both able to win tonight!!!

That's a sweet play you got kingfish!!! I would have been all over that as well if I had the option. I can't believe how spastic this week has been. 20-4 half-time lead ends up in a 26-22 loss. I'm sure it's not the largest half-time comeback but it will be one of the largest this season I reckon.

What is everything thinking for next week right now? Teams like NQ and Bullies I think will come out from the get-go and have much better performances.

[hels]

which online books give you over unders Hels?

I unfortunately don't have an online book for OU and have to go to the Australian TAB in person to make the play.

[hels]

if you have the time, it pays to scout around. i've found that some centrebet totals seem to be slightly sharper than the tab.

eg. centrebet had the titans/warriors total at 43.5 while i think it was 45.5 on the tab. tonight, centrebet's total was 43... while tab was pegged at 42.5.

hels, i've never used this icon before... but your score prediction of 26-22 certainly deserves a hats off.

cheers.

We all get lucky sometimes I guess Do you use Centrebet yourself???

I'll look into opening an account as it will be nice to play half-time lines as well as OU's from home

[nzwarrior]

Good stuff hels nice way to start to the season

[hels]

Great first week with the Over Under and hopefully I can start making some good spread and ML picks as well. The week 2 lines are out and I was suprised to see the Bulldogs open at 2.5 dogs on most places. Betfair already has them at 2.7 and other online sites like centrebet are at 2.65. I thought the line would be going the other way as StG didn't win decisively and was holding on at the end for their lives. Differ that with the Bulldogs who were supposedly out of the match at half-time and if Ennis could have kicked the ball better than my grandma they would have at least tied and should have won. Missing 4 conversions is unacceptable and if he misses the first attempt in week 2 he shouldn't be kicking ever again. He knows he'll have the pressure on him and hopefully being a pro he will show that he won't ever kick so poorly in any other game.

The total isn't official anywhere yet but at Betfair is set at 36.5 (nobody has put a play on it yet so there's no odds) which of course is really low. This is based on St. George's 30 point total and the Bulldogs 36 point total in week 1. TAB hasn't released their OU but they do have a try being scored in the first 8 minutes at 2.15 and after 8 at 1.65.

What this is telling me so far is that it should be a low scoring close contest. Maybe the Bulldogs+12.5 at 1.40 will be a great play. They have the opportunity to win this and I really think they will! So why not take the huge security blanket, up the ante and walk away feeling like an expert?

What is everyone else thinking about this game? I know week 1 was all over the place and hopefully week 2 isn't as spastic. I haven't really considered the OU yet on anything as I'm waiting for TAB to come out with their lines.

I hope we all have winning weeks this week!!!

[hels]

Starting week 2:

ML: 0-4 -$465
PS: 1-2 -$111
OU: 7-0 +$670 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date +$94

For tonight I have nothing locked in yet but it seems as if everyone is on the Dragons. I am thinking the Bulldogs are going to play the way they played their last 20 minutes last week and completely stun everyone. I also like the U36.5 in this game but there is some concern about TAB dropping the Over to 1.85 and Under at 1.95 I was hoping the numbers would both stay at 1.90 and then there would be no question the Under would hit. If the line continues to drop for the Over then they aren't trying to do anything tricky.

The Titans/Souths will be a high scoring game to say the least.

[peterw111]

Hels

With you. Bulldogs own Dragons tonight

[hels]

Bulldogs/Saints U36.5 $100 to win $210

Bulldogs 1-12 $42 to win $135 (42 is all that could be matched at betfair)

[kingfish28]

Bulldogs/Saints U36.5 $100 to win $210

Bulldogs 1-12 $42 to win $135 (42 is all that could be matched at betfair)

Hey hels yeah nice pick up with centrebet. You wouldnt believe if I told you but another stuff up today. In the ncaa game Wash/Marq they had the first half total bet still up with 9mins to go in the first half. It was o/u 65.5 and was on 50 with 9 to go> Its happening alot lately guys so keep your eyes out. They stuff up om game totals all the time, they have offered o/u 150 on some NBA games lately and after we get on they decline and refund before the game starts but if the game starts all bets must be paid. have a look but ssshhhhhh

Im on a close one tonight either way possible so took a small play for either team to win under 6.5pts @ $3
Gl all

[hels]

Hey hels yeah nice pick up with centrebet. You wouldnt believe if I told you but another stuff up today. In the ncaa game Wash/Marq they had the first half total bet still up with 9mins to go in the first half. It was o/u 65.5 and was on 50 with 9 to go> Its happening alot lately guys so keep your eyes out. They stuff up om game totals all the time, they have offered o/u 150 on some NBA games lately and after we get on they decline and refund before the game starts but if the game starts all bets must be paid. have a look but ssshhhhhh Im on a close one tonight either way possible so took a small play for either team to win under 6.5pts @ $3 Gl all

That is awesome getting a bet like that at those odds!!! It's free money to say the least and the only reason I haven't opened an account with them is they don't have poli to deposit. I'll have to reopen my neteller account I guess.

Well I was happy with my play to start but a quick 10-0 lead for the saints isn't what I was expecting. I'm almost thinking of hedging right now (won't do it, but still want too in a way)

[kingfish28]

That is awesome getting a bet like that at those odds!!! It's free money to say the least and the only reason I haven't opened an account with them is they don't have poli to deposit. I'll have to reopen my neteller account I guess.

Well I was happy with my play to start but a quick 10-0 lead for
the saints isn't what I was I'm almost thinking of hedging right now (won't do it, but still want too in a way)

looks like the dragons are a bit pissed off after going straight out of the finals last year seems there hungry. Bulldogs have a habit of coming back so maybe wait and see, still a whole weekend ahead of us. As for the bet if only that would happen all the time hey betting still going deep into the 1h it's a dream come true. Doubt that will happen again after they had to payout today.

[hels]

Titans/Souths O40.5 $100 to win $171

[kingfish28]

Titans/Souths O40.5 $100 to win $171

Good luck hels hope they score like crazy for ya

[hels]

I agree with ya about the Bullies bringing it in the 2nd half. They seemed so poor in the first 15 and then they dominated the last 25 -- not putting any points on the board though. I think they'll continue to dominate possession in the 2nd and I wouldn't be suprised if they score a couple tries if not make a game out of it.

Are you on the GC/Souths match kingfish???

[hels]

late money came in on the Under in the Titans/Souths game but I'm not overly concerned.

[kingfish28]

I agree with ya about the Bullies bringing it in the 2nd half. They seemed so poor in the first 15 and then they dominated the last 25 -- not putting any points on the board though. I think they'll continue to dominate possession in the 2nd and I wouldn't be suprised if they score a couple tries if not make a game out of it.

Are you on the GC/Souths
match kingfish???

Yeah got the sths 1-12 in that one

[kingfish28]

Here come the bullies by the looks of it.

[hels]

okay, you will very rarely see me bitch about calls. But the so called 4th try for the Saints..... how could the video ref call it good? First there was interference that could have gone one way or the other. Then saying he got the ball down with control.... whoa, hold up, control meaning it hits his other hand and rolls off his other hand before hitting the ground???? It didn't even hit his other hand with control... anyways, game isn't over yet but still that's an ugly call.

Rant Over/

[hels]

Here come the bullies by the looks of it.

I thought so too! The Dragons Defense is damn good this year and it will definitely be autobet the Unders these first few weeks. Of course if some number like 44.5 comes up for them it will be Over but anything 40.5 or less will definitely be an Under bet.

I'm happy that I got my larger play with the Under tonight but I'm starting to doubt myself and my other picks. I actually do have a play on the Titans ML but didn't post it pregame as I'm just doubting myself and don't want to give info that isn't going to help anyone.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Souths come back and pull it out. As long as it goes Over that's my main play and what I'm shooting for. BOL kingfish, let's hope for a 24-18 favouring the Rabbitohs

[kingfish28]

I thought so too! The Dragons Defense is damn good this year and it will definitely be autobet the Unders these first few weeks. Of course if some number like 44.5 comes up for them it will be Over but anything 40.5 or less will definitely be an Under bet.

I'm happy that I got my larger play with the Under tonight but I'm starting to doubt myself and my other picks. I actually do have a play on the Titans ML but didn't post it pregame as I'm
just doubting myself and don't want to give info that isn't going to help anyone.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Souths come back and pull it out. As long as it goes Over that's my main play and what I'm
shooting for. BOL kingfish, let's hope for a 24-18 favouring the Rabbitohs

yeah I'll take that finish. I originally took a large bet on centrebet where u can pick your own lines. It's an awesome bet and I really cleaned up on the afl last year with it. Took titans +12.5 in my big bet then last min had a doubt and had a small parlay dragons into rabbits 1-12 great result for both my bets and yours if it can get up. Go rabbits. GL HELS

[hels]

ML: 0-5 -$507
PS: 1-2 -$111
OU: 8-1 +$680 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date +62

I think the Warriors win this outright tonight but I don't know by how much. The OU isn't very appealing at the moment as it's 40.5 at Betfair, 36.5 at TAB and probably everywhere else in between. I'm also thinking that the right play may be either team winning by less then 6.5

[kingfish28]

ML: 0-5 -$507
PS: 1-2 -$111
OU: 8-1 +$680 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date
I think the Warriors win this outright tonight but I don't know by how much.
The OU isn't very appealing at the moment as it's 40.5 at Betfair, 36.5 at TAB and probably everywhere else in between. I'm also thinking that
the right play may be either team winning by less then 6.5

liking warriors tonight Hels. Played well last week albeit 1h but even then didn't get opened up. Sharks over in nz I can't take. Warriors for me and I'm on the under.

[hels]

What line did you get for the Under??? I can get 1.78 U40.5 which is looking really good as TAB is showing 2.00 U36.5

I may just play the NZ ML and feel safe with it.

[alias69]

whats going on, the odds for the sharks has just dropped to +4.5. is there some outs for warriors.

[hels]

Warriors ML $100 to win $153

[hels]

whats going on, the odds for the sharks has just dropped to +4.5. is there some outs for warriors.

I haven't seen this drop.... what book is it?? And I haven't heard anything but I'll look to see if someone's out or something changed.

[hels]

Welcome to Mt. Smart for today's game between the Cronulla Sharks and the New Zealand Warriors. Some late changes for the Warriors, with Brett Seymour out with a broken thumb, replaced by Joel Moon and Cronulla are named 1-17.

[alias69]

cbet luxbet got it at +4.5 tab @ +5.5. like an hour ago it was hovering +5.5/+6. i think i stick with under 38 and wait till HT

[kingfish28]

What line did you get for the Under??? I can get 1.78 U40.5 which is looking really good as TAB is showing 2.00 U36.5

I may just play the NZ ML and feel safe with it.

Got 35.5 @ $2 which I'm a little concerned about, 40 I would of been really confident but on anyway

[hels]

I think I'll be making some HT plays as well. If there was an OU first half line of 18.5 I definitely think it would be under that. Neither team shows much offensively and with fresh defense there shouldn't be many line breaks. I'm still thinking about taking the U40.5 right now but it's at 1.72 and would like to get it around 1.80

[alias69]

gud luk guys whateva u choose. im also likin under 46.5 in sharks v highlanders S14. bol

[kingfish28]

I think I'll be making some HT plays as well. If there was an OU first half line of 18.5 I definitely think it would be under that. Neither team shows much offensively and with fresh defense there shouldn't be many line breaks. I'm still thinking about taking the U40.5 right now but it's at 1.72 and would like to get it around 1.80

I think 40 is generous and shouldn't go over that