Hels' NRL Thread -- Let's Drive this Shit!!

**hels** · 03-12-10, 03:29 AM

Alright booked the Eels to win $50 at a cost of $79.50. I don't think the Eels should be favoured this high which is my reason to pick them. I think that the first 60 minutes will point toward St. George but they will tire near the end and the Eels will win in the late going. It will be a very defensive and ugly affair which also makes me want to play St. George+4.

**rob_nuts** · 03-12-10, 03:44 AM

Rain and storms in Brisbane with windy conditions made me lean to the Under.

Went over in Parra / Dragons game hopefully there is a few errors leading to easy tries
it is only 1st round.

BOL.

**hels** · 03-12-10, 03:51 AM

Originally posted by rob_nuts

Rain and storms in Brisbane with windy conditions made me lean to the Under. Went over in Parra / Dragons game hopefully there is a few errors leading to easy tries it is only 1st round. BOL.

I live in brizzy and the weather right now is a little windy but not any rain at all today. We're both on opposite sides of the OU here and of course in week 1 anything can happen. I have just seen time and time again from TAB that everytime I made the play that looks really good (such as over 36.5) it would rarely if ever hit. I used the same technique (betting against what looks good) in the NBL and absolutely destroyed it. When I started keeping track I went 13-1 and ended up 22-4 after I started playing this technique. Before this I was going with the plays that SHOULD happen and kept on losing. I haven't made an NBL play yet tonight but most likely I will take Perth-9 if I do.

**hels** · 03-12-10, 04:20 AM

Locked in the Cowgirls $100 to win $100. The Broncos have too many new faces and experience will prevail tonight with Thurston showing his magic throughout.

BOL to everyone and let's all get off to a great start!!!

**rob_nuts** · 03-12-10, 10:56 AM

Good job tonight!
Broncos and Cowboys exploded after the first 15.

I know what you mean about about the TAB's odds, and also the betting public has
so much sway over the odds, most of the public would have firmed parramatta's price
in tonight, happens nearly every week with the most popular teams.

Hope you can keep up the good form all season, I will definitely be keeping an eye on your posts!

**hels** · 03-13-10, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by rob_nuts

Good job tonight! Broncos and Cowboys exploded after the first 15. I know what you mean about about the TAB's odds, and also the betting public has so much sway over the odds, most of the public would have firmed parramatta's price in tonight, happens nearly every week with the most popular teams. Hope you can keep up the good form all season, I will definitely be keeping an eye on your posts!

Thanks Rob

I was confident with my OU plays and they both hit for a nice $180 profit.... just the plays I made on ML's weren't confident and subsequently ended up losing to end my night + $0.50... hahaha. I suppose winning 50 cents is better than losing it but just for simplicity sake I'll say I'm even on the year!! An average of 25 cents profit per game will take me 3 weeks to buy a beer!

I'm using the TAB odds again today for 2 OU plays.

Cronulla/Melbourne U37.5 $100 to win $190 -- This line is actually pretty close to where I think it should be. Both of these teams will play simple footy and run the ball hard through the middle. There will be little creativity and you won't see anything graceful. Both teams will be afraid to make mistakes so you won't see any risk taking. An 18-14 score would seem pretty legit.

Penrith/Canberra O45.5 $100 to win $190 -- 45.5 at first looks fairly intimidating and that's what TAB wants you to think. In reality, why not make the line 44.5 as the 1 pointer is rarely kicked. I think it only happens once every 8 games or something like that. Especially in the early weeks of the season you won't see that kind of play being attempted very often. My thinking is this (and I know this contradicts the other pick in this thread) if the 0.5 is on the higher side of an odd number e.g. 45.5 and not 44.5 then this is appears as a simple inflation technique TAB and other books use. 45.5 seems to be much tougher to reach then 44.5 but I can guarantee you out of the 201 games played each season maybe only 2 of them maximum will have a final score totalling 45. And how many of these 2 possible games will have the OU set at either 44.5 or 45.5.

With this thinking the books want you to automatically be afraid of playing the over and start finding reasons that the Under COULD happen. Trying to find reasons why something COULD happen is telling you from the very start that you shouldn't even think about it.

We'll see if this theory of mine pans out more often than not. Last night the 36.5 Par/Stg ended with a total of 30 points. Theory Holds. The 37.5 line says the game should go Over. However, because it is already so low I believe the 36.5 and the 37.5 differential have little meaning. Something I just thought of and it could be complete conspiracy theory bs but TAB knows people are easily influenced by past circumstances. So a 36.5 going Under the night before, would influence people to play the Under when they see a 36.5 the next day. People do see these things and think they are geniuses in making the correlation. Tonight the 37.5 will go Under. If the line was 36.5 it would go Over.

This thinking would mean the 42.5 line last night going over would lean towards the Bulldogs/Knights game set at 42.5 going Under. I didn't play this game but my lean is Under with/without this reasoning anyway.

I've talked alot here and only trying to give some thought and produce some quality discussion amongst everyone. Any idea can be a good idea and I want all of us to destroy the NRL books this year!!!

**hels** · 03-13-10, 01:24 AM

Bulldogs ML $186 to win $50

I love these type of bets just as bankroll boosters. No Gidley means the Knights will be helpless. Doubt they even score 10 points. I could have just played them at -12 but easy money is easy money at the ML.

**Psylence** · 03-13-10, 02:57 AM

BOL in the totals, looks like bulldogs game is going to be a big upset

**AzNDooM** · 03-13-10, 03:01 AM

i have to disagree w/ u on this O/U. IM on the opposite ends, but i will be keeping an eye on your thread as your O/U record is 2-0 and thats no laughing joke. Best of luck, my Canterbury Bet is looking sour at the moment, 4-20 with 20 mins to play, this looks to be all over. Sigh...

**hels** · 03-13-10, 03:08 AM

I hope it isn't over yet AzN... bullies seem to be pouring it on right now but it may be too litle too late. Not converting the 2nd try was pretty demoralizing as well.

**hels** · 03-13-10, 03:20 AM

2 more games tonight and I almost want to play both underdogs just cuz that's how it seems to be going. However that would just be mindless stupid betting on my part.

Storm-5.5 $100 to win $201

**hels** · 03-13-10, 03:20 AM

bullies score again and once again can't convert.... 4 tries with 0 conversions... 20-16 with 2 minutes to go

**hels** · 03-13-10, 03:26 AM

And as we all know Canterbury couldn't finish tonight and not being able to convert points after was their downfall. A loss is a loss however it happens tho.

ML: 0-3
OU: 2-0 OU Leans 1-0
Year to Date -$186

**hels** · 03-13-10, 03:28 AM

Decided to take Penrith-8 $100 to win $204

This line is too high and based on what I know with the bookies when it's too high it should hit.

**alias69** · 03-13-10, 07:06 AM

well done mate, 2nd half was abit scary but they rallied late.

**AzNDooM** · 03-13-10, 04:19 PM

Nice call on 2nd half, any more thoughts on todays games?

**hels** · 03-13-10, 07:53 PM

Morning gentlemen, 2nd half was definitely a bit tight and I'm just happy at the final outcome. 3 out of 4 for the evening games last night isn't too bad and brings my current record to

ML: 0-3 -$365
PS: 1-1 +$4
OU: 4-0 +$360 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date -$1

I'm hoping that how the OU is going isn't just complete utter luck and maybe I'm no to something. Even if I could go 5-3 each week that will definitely be profitable in the long run and I think it's a very achievable goal. Obviously I probably won't be playing all 8 games each week but if I did I would be very happy hitting 62.5%. I should have known that early in the season playing favourite ML's is not the most profitable method. I'll stick to spreads for the time being. It's funny cuz the only spread or ML I've gotten this season has merely been because of the 'this line is too high' and that was that. The other 4 games I've looked at and have been completely blindsided and taken for a ride. Although I think the Cowboys and Bulldogs both got off to extremely slow starts and got into game mode too late. Next week they will both be favs by a large margin and they should hit.

**hels** · 03-13-10, 08:45 PM

To today's matchups, the OU is set at 45.5 for both. I believe one of the games will be Under and the other game Over. The question is is which ones will go each way.

My thinking is this. The GC/NZ game is supposed to be a blowout, one of those 32-10 type of scores. However, as we all know so far this week most games haven't been going to plan. To be honest, I'm actually pretty clueless about it

I've got nothing as of right now and need to think everything thru again. BOL today everyone and I'll be posting in here again soon!!

**hels** · 03-13-10, 09:10 PM

The OU for both games seems too high. Usually that means the games should go over but I'm not so sure today.

I also think that GC-10 is wayyyy to high which means take GC-10 but a team who was lackluster preseason against NZ who was 2-0-1 preseason. Of course the preseason is 'meaningless' once you get to the reg season, but the Titans lost 22-4 to the Cowboys then the Warriors beat the Cowboys 28-6. Go figure.

**hels** · 03-13-10, 09:53 PM

Got my plays for the day in

GC/NZ U45.5 $200 to win $330

Syd/Syd O45.5 $100 to win $190
Rabbitohs/Rabbitohs (Half/Full) $100 to win $210

**hels** · 03-13-10, 10:00 PM

-10 is too high and late line movement I made a snap decision

Titans-10 $115 to win $215

**aunty jack** · 03-13-10, 10:14 PM

this 1pm kick-off nearly caught me off guard.

teams tend to struggle in the late summer/early autumn heat in qld. so on the spur of the moment, i took the under option. the titans often play tough and tight at home, too.

good luck this afternoon. i'm grabbing the radio and hitting some yard work.

**hels** · 03-13-10, 10:41 PM

GL to you to aunty jack. The titans D is struggling early on and unless they can tighten it up the game could have a very high score.

I was just coming in to post that never again will I play at OU and either ML/Spread in the same again again. One of my plays for the GC game is already down the drain. I figure if I have a strong feeling towards both I will begin to play the parlay option from TAB and not play them separately.

**hels** · 03-14-10, 04:01 AM

Hmmmm, I've been nailing the OU's but everything else is a complete loss for me. This has been a crazy weekend so far and who's going to win and by how much are all over the place. I said last post that I wouldn't be playing more then one wager per game and I am going to be sticking to this.

ML: 0-4 -$465
PS: 1-2 -$111
OU: 6-0 +$580 OU Leans 1-0

Year to Date +$4

**alias69** · 03-14-10, 05:11 AM

Well done mate, it's only first round, so expect the unexpected.

**nzwarrior** · 03-14-10, 07:33 PM

Good start to the season mate, we dont have over/unders for the NRL here at the NZ TAB so I've been playing the moneyline and the spreads as parlays. I took a beating this week my Friday parlay got killed by the dragons (crusaders 1-12, eels 1-12, and broncos 1-12, $100 to win $2800) also did a moneyline one on the same teams $500 to win $2000 but st George killed that one too. Bulldogs killed my saturday parlay and rabbits killed my Sunday. That’s week 1 for you, I shouldn’t really of played anything I normally take one or two weeks to watch how teams are playing etc but I jumped in early this year.
Ah well 25 more weeks to recoup.

Nice work on your totals mate

**hels** · 03-15-10, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by alias69

Well done mate, it's only first round, so expect the unexpected.

I agree completely with you, it's another thing I gotta remember and try to work with for the future

Originally posted by nzwarrior

Good start to the season mate, we dont have over/unders for the NRL here at the NZ TAB so I've been playing the moneyline and the spreads as parlays. I took a beating this week my Friday parlay got killed by the dragons (crusaders 1-12, eels 1-12, and broncos 1-12, $100 to win $2800) also did a moneyline one on the same teams $500 to win $2000 but st George killed that one too. Bulldogs killed my saturday parlay and rabbits killed my Sunday. That’s week 1 for you, I shouldn’t really of played anything I normally take one or two weeks to watch how teams are playing etc but I jumped in early this year. Ah well 25 more weeks to recoup. Nice work on your totals mate

I know what you mean by getting killed in the parlays with just one team. It's the most frustrating thing I think. Did you play your 1-12 crusaders/eels/broncos individually or only in the parlay? I'm pretty surprised that NZ TAB doesn't offer OU at all. You would think that if it's something people will play that they will make greater income by offering it.

What does everyone think about tonight's game? 42.5 for the total and Wests are only slightly favoured. It looks like another that could go either way and have a 20 point winner.... I'm almost thinking this will be only a small play for me.

**hels** · 03-15-10, 12:26 AM

I"m going to keep track of all the O/U lines and final totals in this thread as well. Hopefully we'll find some trends!!

Week 1 O/U TOTAL OUTCOME

Par/Stg 36.5 30 U
Bri/NQ 42.5 54 O
Bul/New 42.5 36 U
Pen/Can 45.5 50 O
Cro/Mel 37.5 24 U
GC/NZ 45.5 42 U
Sou/Syd 45.5 46 O

edit. is there any way i can make a chart with this so that the numbers don't all bunch up?

**nzwarrior** · 03-15-10, 12:37 AM

Played the 1-12s just in the parlay, im a sucker for stuff like that, I see the big return and just get greedy coz yeah if I had put 100 on each 1-12 I would of made a positive return.

Yeah not sure why they dont offer it for NRL, they offer it for super 14 and american sports etc.

Tonight I'm leaning manly, mostley because I think their big forward pack will dominate and they should be able to feed off that. Im not sure though monday night's usually a tricky one, especially first one of the season. Depends which tigers team turns up, they can beat any team on their day but then if benji and farah dont fire it will be a long night for them...

**hels** · 03-15-10, 01:39 AM

I made my one play for this game and I am extremely confident with it!!!

Tigers/Sea Eagles O42.5 $100 to win $190

Everything points towards the first Friday night game of the year being fought out try for try in an exciting high tempo matchup. The NRL will want a large score and lots of excitement tonight. A hard fought defensive battle isn't going to make all the casual sports fans watch next week. They want emotions involved and action aplenty. I can see a 26-22 score or something like that. I just don't feel a 16/14 match will create the enthusiasm to jumpstart the rest of the year. The refs will call lots of defensive penalties inside the 20 giving maximal opportunity to score.

If you're someone who loves getting their money in there I would say a try is scored before 8 minutes of the first half. It only pays 2.00 but there's a reason why it's so low. I think maybe only one or two other games this week had a try in the first (don't quote me on that just going from memory).

BOL to all!!!

**aunty jack** · 03-15-10, 02:11 AM

i'll join you on the overs option tonight. hopefully, both teams will throw the ball around, and i'm very keen to see lote tuqiri back in action.

as expected, the early rounds can be hard to pick. there was guaranteed to be at least one kick in the nuts for the punters - and the knights delivered that on saturday.

i've done o-k on the game totals. hit with the under on the storm/sharks (easy)... the titans/warriors (only just)... and the over on the bunnies/chooks (even closer).

ya gotta give the oddsmakers credit though. they're usually pretty spot on in this regard.

good luck tonight. cheers.

**Domestic** · 03-15-10, 03:57 AM

Some handy points before half time making that over look very good. Hope they keep it up for you.

**kingfish28** · 03-15-10, 04:04 AM

Hows this boys. Looking for some half time action jumped on centrebet which is where I do most of my betting and couldnt believe my eyes they offered 2h line west tigers +14@$5.00 I nearly fell over. Thought it was just a mistake so tried a unit and bang it went on, tried again and was fixed. Lets hope they dont get smashed

**kingfish28** · 03-15-10, 05:02 AM

thanks centrebet