How are you going in Fantasy AFL, mate? You're not doing the Virtual Sports version (Real Dream Team), are you?
I'm seventh overall
I'm seventh overall
-
Comment -
Week 6 Results
2x St Kilda ML/Freo ML/Gold Coast ML ($2.20 @ sportsbet)
1x St Kilda 1-39 ($2.15 @ sportsbet)
1x Adelaide -6.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2x Collingwood -8.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1.5x Collingwood HT/FT ($2.20 @ sportsbet)
1x GWS +32.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1.5x Carlton ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)
1.5x Port +5.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
DT Round 6
1.5x Nathan Fyfe Over 99.5 ($1.87 @ sportsbet)
1x Tom Rockliff Over 115.5 ($1.87 @ sportsbet)
1x Patrick Dangerfield Over 97.5 ($1.87 @ sportsbet)
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Week 6 AFL Plays 4-5 // +0.14 Units
Week 6 DT: 2-1 // +1.175 Units
Week 6 OVERALL: 6-6 // +1.315 Units
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
AFL Plays Record: 32-25 // +12.76 units
DT Record: 7-1 // +5.635
OVERALL RECORD: 39-26 // +18.395 units
Comment -
Week 6 Review
I'm going to start posting a review after an update of my record each Monday, the main purpose of this is to allow myself some time to reflect on the week, I usually do my best thinking when I am writing it out and it's always great to go back and reread some stuff I've written to see if I have been learning and improving. I would also love it if people commented on my thoughts whether it is to agree or disagree as discussion with other peoples opinions and thought process usually sparks greater knowledge.
Not the way I envisioned the week going, some late plays is the reason I'm in the green. I'm upset at myself with the approach to that ML parlay, it was foolish. There is no way that St Kilda should be a massive favorite over any team in the AFL, especially playing in New Zealand. It was a perfect let down spot for the Saints after they had a huge win over the Bombers. Another note about that game that was worrying was Rockliff was extremely underdone and didn't impact the game greatly even though the Lions got a win, I would automatically assume if Brisbane are to win a game that Rocky would be at 100 DT points minimum.
I won't touch on the Freo match too much but I am proud that I didn't put too much of my heart into that game, I was always worried about the game our lack of forward options and form of Mayne was concerning. North Melbourne are slowly breaking out of their mental shell and showing some signs of an elite club, they had moments like this last season - if they can put everything together and get some consistency they will be a menacing side. Harvey got the better of Crowley in the rematch, that went a long way. Fyfe DT score over was a great spot, without Barlow the main workload is shared between him and Mundy.
Collingwood was a tough one, I thought my HT/FT at quarter time was completely cooked but then with a minute to go with scores level I was on edge and frustrated as it should have hit, early misses in the first quarter cost me but at least Collingwood turned on the gas and pumped out an impressive win. I doubted Collingwood preseason, I thought they would scrape the 8 but they are showing great signs.
Adelaide were looking cooked early just like Collingwood but the Dogs took the foot of the pedal and allowed the Crows to play some fierce attacking footy. I think Adelaide has the makeup of a top 8 side, with Tex one the verge of return they could present a tough task for anyone. At $2.50 to make the 8 I think there is some value, they have a very soft schedule. Dangerfield backed up last weeks performance with a modest 103 DT score, I was confident he would break 100 this game. He had a great stat line and all that was missing was a couple goals which would have propelled him well above 100.
Carlton were extremely lucky, it was a do or die moment for them and they pulled through in impressive fashion. I don't have too many comments on this game.
Port, what a win. They are an extremely impressive side - they are exciting and have a great side of role players and stars. Wingard, what an animal. My only disappointment is that I didn't hit the ML and the game a little harder. I had this circled from the beginning of the week but it is a long season and I will take the win.
A brief recap, I was disappointed in my analysis of the Saints game as well as my pathetic juiced ML parlay, I will look to do another again if I can see value. Hopefully people cashed in this tumultuous round.Comment -
Wow that is impressive, I have a Real Dream Team as well - I am doing terribly in both my team is very vanilla and I'm always a week/two weeks late on the 'cash cows' or rising players. This week hurt me - Reiwoldlt, Buddy, Fasolo all with terrible scores. What were your trades this week mate and who was your captain - any tips or knowledge from you would be appreciated hahaComment -
Thanks mate.
Last week I traded out Titchell (Tom Mitchell) for Zorko, and Xavier Ellis for Nick Robertson. My captain was Gazza.
Getting the timing right is important. The only real worries I've had this year are McEvoy (who got injured and missed two rounds). I traded him for Grundy, who has been an absolute hack. I was smart/fortunate enough to realise this early on, and Grundy was traded after round five for Trent West. West has been solid with a 68 and 109. If he can maintain an average above 85, I'll be happy with that. It's only early days, but I have a feeling he might be able to average that, now that he's the #1 ruckman.
I have been quite lucky with a few decisions to leave Ellis on my bench when he got injured and scored two, and this week I had Sam Lloyd on my bench, who was subbed up and scored terribly. I also don't have Fasolo, so I dodged a bullet there.
With $250k in my account, this week I'm going to be trading a cash cow for a premium, which will further strengthen my side.Comment -
Awesome insight, I too captained Gazza.
I also had Grundy but opted for Jacobs. West has been superb that is a great pick up.
You are running very nicely mate, very impressive.
My "Real Dream Team" lineup needs some work, I scored 1997 with Franklin/Reiwoldt being my main letdowns...
How many premium mids should you have right now? I shipped Tyson last week, Dunstan looks to be the next one...I'm thinking of downgrading Dunstan to Roberston or another cash cow...any ideas?Comment -
I had the exact same issue with saints, in the sloppy/humid conditions im not sure why i got sucked into the saints. Brisbane train in similar conditions most weeks and seemed so much cleaner then st.kilda.
I have heard many people say Carlton were 'lucky' to win and although the eagles did hit the post twice in the last 2 minutes, i think a lot of people are quick to forget we hit the post twice earlier in the game and also simpson had his kicked touched right on the line by cox in the last quarter also. The result had more to do with the eagles choking then it had to do with Carlton being 'lucky' from my point of viewComment -
Each week is a learning curve.
I think the main thing the Eagles fans or Carlton haters are referring to with the 'lucky' comment would be the tackle on Masten inside the 50, if it was called it was certainly a chance for the Eagles to put it out of reach. However Carlton were better in those fleeting minutes and played some incredibly fast and attacking footy.Comment -
Week 7
3x Crows -39.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Crows 1H -18.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Crows 1Q -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)Comment -
There's no right or wrong answer with how many premiums you should have in your midfield right now. Some people opt for an even balance of about 4-5 premiums per position (plus 1 or 2 premium rucks). Others tend to adopt more of a mid-priced strategy. This year is the first time I have decided to get in more than a couple of mid-priced players. In the past, I've only had two or three at the absolute max, but this year I started with Suckling, Dale Thomas, Higgins and Caddy. Of those, only Suckling and Higgins remain.
So to expand on your question, you could only enter with a couple of midfield premiums and still be successful, but this would mean you would have to have confidence in your premiums in other positions, and extremely confident on your rookies and mid priced players in your midfield. Ideally, it's all about getting all your players to play early on, to gain maximum points from your starting 22, as well as cash from your cash cows. The sooner you are able to generate cash, the easier you will find it to quickly upgrade your squad so you can have 22 premiums. This takes time, and you may not have 22 premiums until the last few rounds.
My starting midfield was Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Cotchin, Murphy, Thomas, Polec, Dunstann, Ellis, Crouch.
I was pretty lucky to nail my midfield. None have been poor selections. Thomas is no longer there - he hasn't been poor, but I just found it a good opportunity to sideways trade him for Mcrae, who was and still is scoring better than Thomas. That trade, although sideways, still generated me about $60,000 IIRC. So it was a mini downgrade in price, but upgrade in scoring. Obviously Ellis got injured in round five, but as mentioned, I dodged that bullet by having him on the bench, and he still served his purpose of making over $100,000, so I'm not complaining too much there.
A lot of coaches invested in Shiels who was quite solid (I had him in SC), but he got injured so that's another bullet I dodged in Dream Team.
Tyson is another one I avoided. I was regretting not putting him in to start off with, but as I anticipated, he crashed back down to Earth so I'm thankful for that, because I didn't think he was worth spending an extra $100,000 on (compared to the likes of Crouch and Dunstann). He has still been solid, but I agree with your decision to start thinking about shipping him. He's a 70-80 point scorer at most (at the start of the year I was thinking 65-70, but I have to give him more credit now).
The good thing about the midfield position are the rookies that are capable of averaging 80. Crouch, Dunstann and Polec appear to be quite handy, so if you can find a few of those, there's obviously less of a need to top up with midfield premiums.
Hope this helps
Comment -
I won't quote the post because it's long.
Awesome insight man, as it is my first year doing this properly I think I'm just experimenting and trying to learn as much as I can - I'm really worried and confused about the byes coming up.
I have a lot of players out in round 8.
How do you feel about Suckling, his breakeven is high now I might move him for a more prominent/slight upgrade.Comment -
There's no harm in doing that, but personally I will be waiting and making him one of my final upgrades. He is good for an average of about 75, which is solid for a defender you plan to keep for a while.Comment -
Adding
1x Carlton +25.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Marc Murphy Over 94.5 Fantasy Points ($2.15 @ luxbet)
Comment -
Was on the under tonight and that last qtr screwed me. It rained goals in the last 3 minutes.
What was worse went to hedge at 3 qtr time and missed by 5 seconds to get on. Shocking law to not be able to bet live on the web.Comment -
Adding
1x GWS +45.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)Comment -
Real worrying start by the Crows.Comment -
Don't even look like scoringComment -
Done your dough.Comment -
<br>
<br>Thanks for that insight pal.Comment -
<u><strong>Adding<br><br><br></strong></u>
2.5x Gold Coast +24.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
0.5x Gold Coast ML ($3.70 @ sportsbet)
1x B. Harvey > B. Cunnington DT score ($1.80 @ sportsbet)
1x D. Swallow > J. Omera DT score ($1.88 @ sportsbet)Comment -
Ablett you little beauty!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
3x Freo 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
0.5x A. Sandilands Ross Glen Medal ($10.00 @ sportsbet)Comment -
Nice one.Comment -
Week 7 Results
3x Crows -39.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Crows 1H -18.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Crows 1Q -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton +25.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x GWS +45.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2.5x Gold Coast +24.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
0.5x Gold Coast ML ($3.70 @ sportsbet)
3x Freo 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
0.5x A. Sandilands Ross Glen Medal ($10.00 @ sportsbet)
DT Week 7
1x Marc Murphy Over 94.5 Fantasy Points ($2.15 @ luxbet)
1x B. Harvey > B. Cunnington DT score ($1.80 @ sportsbet)
1x D. Swallow > J. Omera DT score ($1.88 @ sportsbet)
4-8 // -1.63 Units
Week 7 AFL Plays 4-5 // +1.37 Units
Week 7 DT: 0-3 // -3.0 Units
Week 7 OVERALL: 4-8 // -1.63 Units
AFL Plays Record: 36-30 // +14.13 units
DT Record: 7-4 // +2.635
OVERALL RECORD: 43-34 // +16.765 unitsComment -
What a crazy week, really disappointing with my thoughts on the Adelaide game, I took my largest wager on a single game for that Crows match. I thought they would completely overrun the Demons but I was gravely mistaken, Adelaide just couldn't score, props to Melbourne and any Melbourne backers they played great.
Everything else for my week went perfectly, I must admit my unit size was a bit out of wack but I felt very strongly about Gold Coast and Fremantle. The other disappointing side to my week was my poor DT plays, Harvey/Swallow were both leading the DT race going into the fourth however big quarters from Cunnington and Omera sealed my fate. Overall I am quite lucky to be only down a unit and a half for the week. My wager style is very aggressive, once I have a significant bankroll I like to attack on plays that I feel confident with.
Hopefully everyone on the board had a better week than myself, I am looking forward to this next round of footy.Comment -
So crows weren't the only ones to cost me big time this weekComment -
Keep it up mate! Great results for the year, especially when still posting plenty of plays in difficult weeks. There will be some big results when variance dies down again!Comment -
Week 8
1x Sydney +15.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Hawks 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)
1x Fremantle 1-39 ($2.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Fremantle +9.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Western Bulldogs -16.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
2x West Coast -46.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)Comment -
hey mate like your take on the Sydney/Hawks game with the sorta middle - will be following on that, also jumped on west coast when -50 earlier in the week - think they will smassh em - dockers game will be interesting, should be low scoring and close i'd think, lot of motivation for dockers... GLComment -
Thanks mate, I think Sydney will play great footy tonight and it will be a tough fought game. West Coast will be up and about for this game, LeCras/Wellingham/Ellis strengthens their side - they have such a potent forward line they should produce goals this week not points.Comment
