RealDeal AFL 2014

[therealdealau]

Like your selections, I got on Carlton earlier in the week also, justn a lot more upside if they can improve their performance, also scored 220 odd in 3 losses compared to melbs 120 odd, melbs simply cannot score atm. Adelaide should be the much better team and should cover -5.5 but Im not playing that one, will prob go for geelong halftime and fulltime, i cant remember exactly but I think last 4-5 games between these 2 at kardinya park has been 40+ to geelong, this is a much improved eagles line up but losing their in form small forward in lecras could hurt them over there although josh hill is a decent replacement if he plays. Also sydney 1-39 and collingwood minus 8.5 will play for one unit each. good luck for weekend

Thanks, hopefully this week goes better. I'm nervous about the Adelaide play but I really do not respect the Saints. Another huge out for the Eagles is Glass, I expect the Cats to be up and about for this one. Good luck mate!

[therealdealau]

Adding

1x Port Adelaide -34.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Port Adelaide 1Q -7.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Round 4

After a disaster Round 3 I will be looking at bouncing back here.

1x Collingwood -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Carlton 1Q -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton 1H -17.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
2x Carlton -37.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

1x Geelong -25.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Geelong 1H -12.5 (1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Sydney 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)

1x Adelaide 1-39 ($2.35 @ sportsbet)
3x Adelaide -5.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

1x Port Adelaide -34.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Port Adelaide 1Q -7.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

Carlton ruined a great week, they are terrible. I'll have to pick my spot with them as I think they will eventually turn it around. Collingwood are a threatening team with such a great midfield. Really impressed with Adelaide's however they were a bit too impressive cooking the 1-39.

Week 4 Results: 6-5 / +2.3 Units

AFL Record: 19-19 / +2.34 units

[aussieH]

Carlton ruined a stack of multi's for myself.

[burkestar]

whats going on with swans? can they make top 4 like last year? the 8 even?

[TEAMSPORTS]

Nice weekend except for carlton but they hurt us all i think, very true on what you say about picking your spot with them as they are bound to come good eventually and i also thought it was gonna be this last weekend, they are now under huge pressure to get a win in anyway possible and wouldnt be surprised if they did it this weekend v bulldogs but dont think i will touch their games for coupla weeks. How do you feel about freo in sydney, ive locked in a coupla units on them already just interested in your feel...

[Bic]

Carlton ruined a great week, they are terrible. I'll have to pick my spot with them as I think they will eventually turn it around.

This. There is some money to be made here... I thought it would be against the Demons and lost big. Could it be this week? The same goes for the Swans.

[therealdealau]

Carlton ruined a stack of multi's for myself.

Absolutely disgusting performance, the aim of the game now is to pick their redemption game.

[therealdealau]

whats going on with swans? can they make top 4 like last year? the 8 even?

In my opinion the Swans are suffering from a lack of confidence, pressure to perform and have come up against opponents who simply want to win more. The competition is getting harder each season, the Swans who possess an outstanding lineup are now getting matched, throw Buddy into the mix who is still trying to find his feet with his new team and you have a really rough start. Sydney have an incredible lineup with a great coach, they will find their rhythm soon.

[therealdealau]

Nice weekend except for carlton but they hurt us all i think, very true on what you say about picking your spot with them as they are bound to come good eventually and i also thought it was gonna be this last weekend, they are now under huge pressure to get a win in anyway possible and wouldnt be surprised if they did it this weekend v bulldogs but dont think i will touch their games for coupla weeks. How do you feel about freo in sydney, ive locked in a coupla units on them already just interested in your feel...

Carlton hurt me badly, would have been a huge weekend if not. I feel sick even thinking this but I think they will beat the Doggies. Fremantle looked great on the weekend, we went after the ball hard which was the difference between the Bombers and Hawks game. Last season we beat Sydney comprehensively in the finals and also snuck home a win in the earlier rounds. It's a really difficult position though because Sydney will be wanting to win, however if Fremantle can put together the same sort of intensity as they did against Essendon we should be able to win. What I'm worried about is that we aren't going to be putting these ferocious performances on when we are away from Perth. Zac Clarke is a huge in for us and pending the weather in Sydney he will be an important factor in the outcome of the game. Pending the team we put out on the field, I believe the Dockers will come away with a narrow win. I'm worried about Mundy, hopefully he is good to go. Freo 1-39/-5.5

[therealdealau]

This. There is some money to be made here... I thought it would be against the Demons and lost big. Could it be this week? The same goes for the Swans.

There are quite a few teams in a "backs against the wall" kind of position. Obviously the Blues are the biggest one of the lot, they need wins, they want wins, can they get wins? The Doggies won last weekend partly because GWS ran out of legs and intensity, GWS didn't put them to the sword. I feel if the Doggies come into the game with a lackluster first half against Carlton they will lose. Carlton SHOULD be up and about in this game, I expect Mick to bring back Waite and Garlett. If I make a play on it though it will be for a unit only.

Adeladie is another team that I think will string wins together, I had them in the top 8 before the season started and I think they have the structure and ability to be there. They should annihilate the Giants this weekend and pick up their first win at their new ground. Looking at their next games - Dogs, Demons, Pies, Carlton, Gold Coast - I strongly believe they can win 4/5 of these.

Brisbane is a team I think I'm going to stay away from until some of their injured stars come back, they are definitely in big trouble, with Rich going down two weeks ago and Hanley going down this week. Rockliff is a great player for anyone who plays Dream Team, he will absolutely dominate the stat board.

Sydney is an interesting one, I honestly don't know when they will come good but it is inevitable that they will. They are in big trouble this weekend though if they don't come into this game with a fierce ball winning attitude. Looking at the Swans run - Dockers, Melbourne, Brisbane, Hawks, Essendon. There are some very winnable games here - I will look at the Swans over Hawks as an interesting one - Buddy redemption?

[therealdealau]

Week 5

1x Richmond -23.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1H -11.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1Q -5.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

2x Adelaide -33.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Adelaide 1H -15.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

Dream Team Week 5

1x T. Rockliff Over 115.5 ($1.87 @ sportsbet)

[TEAMSPORTS]

Thanks for detailed replies always appreciated, I noticed sportsbet have an early market on Fremantle v North, betting nearly 2 weeks early is pretty risky but freo giving 15.5 at home is pretty tempting could only see this going out to at least 20.5 but prob more like 24.5 unless something extraordinary happens on the weekend. get 1 unit in early maybe? any thoughts

[therealdealau]

Thanks for detailed replies always appreciated, I noticed sportsbet have an early market on Fremantle v North, betting nearly 2 weeks early is pretty risky but freo giving 15.5 at home is pretty tempting could only see this going out to at least 20.5 but prob more like 24.5 unless something extraordinary happens on the weekend. get 1 unit in early maybe? any thoughts

My pleasure. Whilst I find that line to be tempting I think betting this early is unwise unless you REALLY like the value and find it to be profitable. 1 Unit obviously is a smart choice, I wouldn't put anymore on it. As I live in Perth, I've witnessed some 'Melbournesqe" type weather this last month, from the horrible rain that drowned the Suns game to the blistering sun that cooked the Bombers. Obviously if it was heavy rain the line would be worried about.

I actually prefer the $1.88 on the Saints at home against Brisbane or the Crows at $2 against the Doggies.

[therealdealau]

Adding

1x T. Rockliff Over 115.5 ($1.87 @ sportsbet)

Making this a total of 2x on this play.

1.5x Port Adelaide ML ($2.00 @ centrebet)

[therealdealau]

For anyone wanting to get on the Rockliff DT score check out bet365 they released it lower, I was silly not to check.

[MiddleMan]

Yeah, Saints against Brisbane at $1.88 for next week looks good.

(Notice how I neither want to agree nor disagree with you on your opinion of Adelaide over the Dogs)

[therealdealau]

Got the sweep tonight, so lucky with the Rockcliff DT...got it by a point

[Coopertrooper]

No idea how you covered all 3 lines with the way that game went, nice!

[johno35]

Good stuff mate, funny Rockliff got 113 in SC

[therealdealau]

No idea how you covered all 3 lines with the way that game went, nice!

Me either but I'll take it - thanks mate.

[therealdealau]

Good stuff mate, funny Rockliff got 113 in SC

I know, I don't think you get a -3 in Dream Team for a turnover - he got called for holding the ball and I think thats the difference - bloody hilarious.

[therealdealau]

Adding

1x North Melbourne ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

1x Jack Macrae Over 101.5 DT Points ($1.87 @ sportsbet)

[MiddleMan]

Well done last night, mate.

Just a heads up, apparently Tom is offering $3 on North after 6pm tonight.

[therealdealau]

Well done last night, mate.

Just a heads up, apparently Tom is offering $3 on North after 6pm tonight.

Cheers mate.

Woah really? Thats awesome I'll have to check that out although I told myself I only wanted to go 1 unit on North.

Do you follow DT? Do you think Macrae can get over 101 DT ?

[MiddleMan]

Cheers mate.

Woah really? Thats awesome I'll have to check that out although I told myself I only wanted to go 1 unit on North.

Do you follow DT? Do you think Macrae can get over 101 DT ?

I love Dream Team. Ranked 225th overall currently. I'm a part of the EliteDreamTeamers.

If I had to pick either way, I'd say he will, but not with that much confidence. I hope so, for your sake and for mine. He's in my Dream Team, plus I got on him at $26 to poll the most votes for the Bulldogs, so the higher he scores in DT, hopefully that means the more he will be noticed by the umpires.

[aussieH]

That is awesome record in dream team.

I think the pies win against the roos. They play the mcg well the pies and their form has been a bit underrated

[therealdealau]

I love Dream Team. Ranked 225th overall currently. I'm a part of the EliteDreamTeamers.

If I had to pick either way, I'd say he will, but not with that much confidence. I hope so, for your sake and for mine. He's in my Dream Team, plus I got on him at $26 to poll the most votes for the Bulldogs, so the higher he scores in DT, hopefully that means the more he will be noticed by the umpires.

Impressive, could you screenshot me your team? I'm doing DT for my first year however I have studied the points for the last three years for wagering.

That is a great play at $26 mate

[therealdealau]

That is awesome record in dream team.

I think the pies win against the roos. They play the mcg well the pies and their form has been a bit underrated

Personally I am leaning towards North simply because I think they are more rounded than the Pies.

[MiddleMan]

Impressive, could you screenshot me your team? I'm doing DT for my first year however I have studied the points for the last three years for wagering.

That is a great play at $26 mate

Sure, mate.

[therealdealau]

Adding

1x Nathan Jones > Dion Prestia DT score ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

[aussieH]

Jones tagged last week and did a good job so he may sacrifice his Game and try and take out ablett

[MiddleMan]

Jones has taken his game to another level this year. He is getting better with age. I think he's too important to Melbourne to use him as a pure tagger. "Run with player" is probably fair. Last week he played a typical Kane Cornes like role from back in the day. I.E. A loose tag who wins the ball.

[therealdealau]

Jones played a tagging role but it wasn't your typical "Crowley" tag, it was more of a strategy to free up Jones in dangerous places around the ground. Jones managed 93 DT points in that game, this will be close but I like the value.

[therealdealau]

Really impressed with your DT Middle mate, I'll screen shot mine in when I can just a little busy. Will you be trying to get Swan in the team next week?