dRavidC's NRL 2014

[dRavidC]

18/05/14

NRL Round 10

3* Bulldogs vs Warriors M/L LOSER

Warriors been on fire since the hiring of McFaden and firing of Elliot. As dreadful as their opponents was, the warriors looked devestating last week. Add in that fact that the warriors got pipped by 1 in a heart breaker and you have a big REVENGE angle. This is a bulldogs home game but it's played in NZ so no real edge there. Just think the warriors are on a roll and bulldogs are so hot that they're due for a loss.

the smarter play would have been the UNDER 42.5 but I still liked the warriors to snatch the win. They were outplayed for most of the game and still had a chance to win the game. That shaun johnson line break was amazing and looked like a shoe-in try and that brilliant josh morris tackle was one of best defensive plays I've seen this season. Nonetheless, the bulldogs are definitely the real deal and the warriors well I still think they will come good.

NRL 2014 Record: 20 - 15

+ 8.29 units

[lakes_8]

any thoughts on the sea eagles/knights game tonight?

[dRavidC]

19/05/14

NRL Round 10

3* Sea Eagles vs Knights UNDER 41.5

Everyone is backing the sea eagles to bury these knights. And for good reason, the knights have looked good in patches in a few games but for the majority of the time they have been an absolute dud, especially on offence. In 9 matches, they have scored the lowest points in the league with 134 points (average of 14.9 points/ game). Coach Bennett knows that, the knights know that. The only way they'll hang in this game is through their defence which hasn't been that bad. Add in the fact that the Eagles rank 2nd in fewest points allowed (16.9 points/game) and statistically speaking, it appears we have a grinder tonight. The Sea Eagles have been rolling and they're doing it without their big name players in Foran and G. Stewart with Whatmough and Evans not looking 100%. Knights get back Sims and Wason which should bolster up their defence - pretty much a full strength Knights team taking the field. The only way I see this game going over is if manly put up another 36+ point game which I think won't happen. Knights hang in there but Manly eventually pull out the W. I have this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

Trends:

Knights are 6-3 to the UNDER.

Past 6 h2h clashes have averaged 39 points with 5 of those games failing to surpass 40 points.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

19/05/14

NRL Round 10

3* Sea Eagles vs Knights UNDER 41.5

Everyone is backing the sea eagles to bury these knights. And for good reason, the knights have looked good in patches in a few games but for the majority of the time they have been an absolute dud, especially on offence. In 9 matches, they have scored the lowest points in the league with 134 points (average of 14.9 points/ game). Coach Bennett knows that, the knights know that. The only way they'll hang in this game is through their defence which hasn't been that bad. Add in the fact that the Eagles rank 2nd in fewest points allowed (16.9 points/game) and statistically speaking, it appears we have a grinder tonight. The Sea Eagles have been rolling and they're doing it without their big name players in Foran and G. Stewart with Whatmough and Evans not looking 100%. Knights get back Sims and Wason which should bolster up their defence - pretty much a full strength Knights team taking the field. The only way I see this game going over is if manly put up another 36+ point game which I think won't happen. Knights hang in there but Manly eventually pull out the W. I have this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

Trends:

Knights are 6-3 to the UNDER.

Past 6 h2h clashes have averaged 39 points with 5 of those games failing to surpass 40 points.

Where are you getting your stats from?
Here are the past 6 games:
32-0 - Brookvale
42-20 - Brookvale
6-32 - Newcastle
32-10 - Newcastle
26-12 - Brookvale
14-32 - Newcastle

So based on those results, it is 3-3 over/under this particular total.

[dRavidC]

Where are you getting your stats from?
Here are the past 6 games:
32-0 - Brookvale
42-20 - Brookvale
6-32 - Newcastle
32-10 - Newcastle
26-12 - Brookvale
14-32 - Newcastle

So based on those results, it is 3-3 over/under this particular total.

oh really? i got it from the nrl site, under previews...

[lakes_8]

19/05/14

NRL Round 10

3* Sea Eagles vs Knights UNDER 41.5

Never in doubt, great job as always!

[snufflyjoe]

nice one I tailed cheers

[Tim Gerry Mander]

oh really? i got it from the nrl site, under previews...

The NRL site is horrible - you would think they could do a better job with it.

At least it didn't affect the outcome.

[dRavidC]

19/05/14

NRL Round 10

3* Sea Eagles vs Knights UNDER 41.5 WINNER

Everyone is backing the sea eagles to bury these knights. And for good reason, the knights have looked good in patches in a few games but for the majority of the time they have been an absolute dud, especially on offence. In 9 matches, they have scored the lowest points in the league with 134 points (average of 14.9 points/ game). Coach Bennett knows that, the knights know that. The only way they'll hang in this game is through their defence which hasn't been that bad. Add in the fact that the Eagles rank 2nd in fewest points allowed (16.9 points/game) and statistically speaking, it appears we have a grinder tonight. The Sea Eagles have been rolling and they're doing it without their big name players in Foran and G. Stewart with Whatmough and Evans not looking 100%. Knights get back Sims and Wason which should bolster up their defence - pretty much a full strength Knights team taking the field. The only way I see this game going over is if manly put up another 36+ point game which I think won't happen. Knights hang in there but Manly eventually pull out the W. I have this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

Trends:

Knights are 6-3 to the UNDER.

Past 6 h2h clashes have averaged 39 points with 5 of those games failing to surpass 40 points.

never in doubt. and just as I thought Knights really gave it to the manly sea eagles. and boy oh boy were the conversions terrible... 5 tries in the 2nd half all unconverted. but that just helped our play even more. good to get an easy winner after that warriors demoraliser.

@ lakers_8, snufflyjoe thanks guys

@ TGM yeah didn't realise the NRL site was that bad. but didn't base my plays on that stat anyway. That was more the icing on the cake and the last thing i looked at tbh. I based in on the stats and numbers I ran for each team this seaon and personal read on the game.

NRL 2014 Record: 21 - 15

+ 10.99 units

[dRavidC]

23/05/14

NRL Round 11

2* Bulldogs vs Roosters UNDER 38.5

Bulldogs missing their 2 halves due to origin and both teams are decimated due to injuries. I think we'll see a low scorer tonight. Both teams have been two of the best defensive teams in the comp. Dogs missing Hotkinson and Reynolds will find it hard to score points tonight. Roosters just conceded 50+ points against the Cowboys and the coach and the team will be more defensively focussed tonight. Whatever the outcome, I see a grinding low scoring match.

[dRavidC]

23/05/14

NRL Round 11

2* Bulldogs vs Roosters UNDER 38.5 LOSER

Bulldogs missing their 2 halves due to origin and both teams are decimated due to injuries. I think we'll see a low scorer tonight. Both teams have been two of the best defensive teams in the comp. Dogs missing Hotkinson and Reynolds will find it hard to score points tonight. Roosters just conceded 50+ points against the Cowboys and the coach and the team will be more defensively focussed tonight. Whatever the outcome, I see a grinding low scoring match.

roosters running over the bulldogs late to kill our under

NRL 2014 Record: 21 - 16

+ 8.99 units

[dRavidC]

24/05/14

NRL Round 11

2.5* Titans vs Warriors OVER 40.5

[Rustyglobes]

Good luck on your play today dRavidC...

I have the Titans vs Warriors over as the last leg in a multi to hit, was just wondering what your thinking was behind the 2.5 unit bet on the over?

Titans and Warriors both had low scoring games last week and Titans haven't really been impressive on the offensive end this season, whilst Warriors are capable of putting a big score on the board at any given moment.

Appreciate any insight you might have mate

[dRavidC]

Good luck on your play today dRavidC...

I have the Titans vs Warriors over as the last leg in a multi to hit, was just wondering what your thinking was behind the 2.5 unit bet on the over?

Titans and Warriors both had low scoring games last week and Titans haven't really been impressive on the offensive end this season, whilst Warriors are capable of putting a big score on the board at any given moment.

Appreciate any insight you might have mate

just see this game as one of those breakout games for at least one of these sides. I feel that the warriors play their best when they play their expansive footy as we saw against the raiders and the titans defence is nowhere near that of the dogs and add in the fact that they're without myles and bird and you have to think the warriors will get heaps of points tonight. And the warriors defence has been so good these past few weeks and with Kelly back for the titans you can just see his creativity and playmaking getting them points. Never feel strong backing warriors at a spread of more than a try away from home so the OVER stood out to be more. 2.5 units is all to do with a measure of my money management.

[Rustyglobes]

Thanks again i agree with your logic.

Good luck once again with the play

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Guys,

I'm on the over too - got it at 38.5
Just note that Kelly is out for the Titans.
Team looks like this:

3 William Zillman (c)
2 Kalifa Faifai Loa
1 David Mead
20 Brad Tighe
5 Anthony Don
21 Maurice Blair
6 Beau Henry
8 Luke Bailey
9 Beau Falloon
10 Luke Douglas
16 Ben Ridge
12 David Taylor
13 Paul Carter

Interchange
11 Mark Minichiello
14 Matthew White
15 Mark Ioane
17 Matt Srama

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Dammit these missed conversions

[Mase of Base]

What a half that was, bit of a slow burner at the start but came alive.

Flicked it back to the rugby after the Warriors try in the corner thinking that would be that and see GC got a bonus one at the end.

Big Dave with the first half hatty good to see the big fella up for a game.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

How fking slack lol. Had a feeling those conversions were gonna fk us

[Mase of Base]

Townsend is the biggest waste of space in the NRL, missed cons and that missed try was horrific.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Haven't had a bad beat like this in a while in league hahaha

[Rustyglobes]

that was a terrible beat, can't believe neither team couldn't score a converted try in the last 30 minutes of play. Beaten by the hook always sucks

[HeisenBet]

No worse feeling when you have the right side but wrong result, it stinks.

[dRavidC]

24/05/14

NRL Round 11

2.5* Titans vs Warriors OVER 40.5 LOSER

one of the worst beats we've had this season. with over 20 minutes to go, game goes scoreless so we miss by the hook. 30 points scored in the 1st half, 10 in the 2nd... just gotta accept it and move on.

NRL 2014 Record: 21 - 17

+ 6.49 units

[dRavidC]

25/05/14

NRL Round 11

2* Raiders -6 vs Cowboys

[dRavidC]

25/05/14

NRL Round 11

2* Raiders -6 vs Cowboys WINNER

solid win

NRL 2014 Record: 22 - 17

+ 8.31 units

[dRavidC]

09/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Raiders vs Broncos UNDER 40.5

Back after a bit of a layoff. Broncos record is terrible in Canberra and it will be a very very cold night (9 degrees) in Canberra. Both teams essentially at full strength. Raiders attacking option only really through Milford. Broncos win games through their defence which is 4th in the league. Raiders are ranked last in defence but in past couple of weeks adn especially in Canberra have been a bit better. I feel the cold weather in Canberra and Brisbane's poor canberra record gives this game a low scoring feel about it. My model has this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

[the tross]

Goodluck rav . Took broncos -4 on form for 1 unit. NFL fans would be laughing at what we think is cold!.

[dRavidC]

09/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Raiders vs Broncos UNDER 40.5 WINNER

Back after a bit of a layoff. Broncos record is terrible in Canberra and it will be a very very cold night (9 degrees) in Canberra. Both teams essentially at full strength. Raiders attacking option only really through Milford. Broncos win games through their defence which is 4th in the league. Raiders are ranked last in defence but in past couple of weeks adn especially in Canberra have been a bit better. I feel the cold weather in Canberra and Brisbane's poor canberra record gives this game a low scoring feel about it. My model has this game capped in the mid-high 30's.

easy winner, never in doubt. it was the raiders attacking deficiency that was the corporate for cashing this play for us.

NRL 2014 Record: 23 - 17

+ 11.31 units

[dRavidC]

14/06/14

NRL Round 13

2* Panthers vs Dragons OVER 40

[dRavidC]

14/06/14

NRL Round 13

2* Panthers vs Dragons OVER 40 LOSER

NRL 2014 Record: 23 - 18

+ 9.31 units

[dRavidC]

14/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Roosters vs Knights +14.5

[dRavidC]

14/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Roosters vs Knights +14.5 LOSER

cruel loss, knights led 12-6 in HT, only to get outscored 23-0 in 2nd half...

NRL 2014 Record: 23 - 19

+ 6.31 units

[dRavidC]

15/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Bulldogs vs Eels UNDER 40.5

[dRavidC]

15/06/14

NRL Round 13

3* Bulldogs vs Eels UNDER 40.5 WINNER

easy winner thanks largely to eels kickers being off target

NRL 2014 Record: 24 - 19

+ 9.01 units