dRavidC's NRL 2014

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

NRL Round 2

2.5* Titans 13+ Margin vs Tigers

Dragons put up 40+ against this Tigers team. 32 degress up there in the coast and a confident and firing Titans team - this has a thrashing written all over it.

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

NRL Round 2

2.5* Titans 13+ Margin vs Tigers LOSER

Dragons put up 40+ against this Tigers team. 32 degress up there in the coast and a confident and firing Titans team - this has a thrashing written all over it.

COOKED

NRL 2014 Record: 4 - 6

- 3.63 units

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

adding

NRL Round 2

3* Titans -5.5 2nd half vs Tigers

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

adding

NRL Round 2

3* Titans -5.5 2nd half vs Tigers LOSER

NRL 2014 Record: 4 - 7

- 6.63 units

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

NRL Round 2

3* Knights vs Raiders M/L

[dRavidC]

16/3/14

NRL Round 2

3* Knights vs Raiders M/L WINNER

shot myself in the foot twice with titans tigers but that raiders play has slightly made up for it.

NRL 2014 Record: 5 - 7

- 2.43 units

[dRavidC]

17/3/14

NRL Round 2

2* Bulldogs vs Sharks +12

[dRavidC]

dang it thought carney was in, oh well dud play costing me 2 units

[dRavidC]

17/3/14

NRL Round 2

2* Bulldogs vs Sharks +12 LOSER

NRL 2014 Record: 5 - 8

- 4.43 units

[justkyle88]

Missed this play. Was going to take all the handicaps possible.
oh well.
keep an eye on Ryan, carney, fifita and gallen being out of the sharks squad.

[dRavidC]

21/03/14


NRL Round 3

3* Tigers vs Rabbitohs UNDER 46.5

Tigers are 2-0 to the OVER and the Rabbitohs are 2-0 to the UNDER. I think this game will be played in the rabbitohs pace and style and that' DEFENCE. Bear in mind that both tigers games have been on hot afternoons so defence is a bit tougher due to players' proneness to fatigue. The game is today is in the night and so fatigue will be a bit less of an issue. But I just don't see the Tigers scoring enough on this rabbitohs defence for this game to go over. I have this game capped at 42 so with 4 extra points I'll take it.

[Mase of Base]

Ended up being easy well done.

I had the over I can't believe some of those tries that got scratched the new TMO is a waste of time the refs might as well call it as they barely ever change it. Prime example was that Pat Richards no try near the end, that strip clearly went back and it wasn't even close but they didn't look at it and went with the ref. Another being the Tigers try in the first half where it clearly hit the guys arm and went forward but they gave it anyway as the ref had said try.

I've noticed plenty more already this season and I just don't get it.

[dRavidC]

21/03/14


NRL Round 3

3* Tigers vs Rabbitohs UNDER 46.5 LOSER

Tigers are 2-0 to the OVER and the Rabbitohs are 2-0 to the UNDER. I think this game will be played in the rabbitohs pace and style and that' DEFENCE. Bear in mind that both tigers games have been on hot afternoons so defence is a bit tougher due to players' proneness to fatigue. The game is today is in the night and so fatigue will be a bit less of an issue. But I just don't see the Tigers scoring enough on this rabbitohs defence for this game to go over. I have this game capped at 42 so with 4 extra points I'll take it.

did not see that coming but we'll take that. but definitely did think 46.5 was a bit too inflated especially for a night game.

NRL 2014 Record: 6 - 8

- 1.58 units

[dRavidC]

Ended up being easy well done.

I had the over I can't believe some of those tries that got scratched the new TMO is a waste of time the refs might as well call it as they barely ever change it. Prime example was that Pat Richards no try near the end, that strip clearly went back and it wasn't even close but they didn't look at it and went with the ref. Another being the Tigers try in the first half where it clearly hit the guys arm and went forward but they gave it anyway as the ref had said try.

I've noticed plenty more already this season and I just don't get it.

unlucky mate.

[Mase of Base]

unlucky mate.

Ha cheers needed a place to vent I took it out on you thread sorry! Broncs just went over so it's not a horrible night.

Need to get my own thread started but the surfs been too good lately so I don't get in till the games are at half time! Can't be bothered doing write ups after that, I'll get there soon.

[dRavidC]

22/03/14

NRL Round 3

2* Panthers vs Bulldogs +3.5

Would of been nice to bank the dogs when they were at 4.5 but anyway have a feeling that win last week was what the dogs needed to snap these doggies players out of their sleep. I have to admit though, the panthers have looked the better of the two sides thrashing knights then almost beating Melbourne in Melbourne. Bulldogs were disappointing against the Broncos at home then put on a smackdown against a reserve grade sharks team. Dogs have the advantage in the forwards but the panthers i think have a advantage in backline. The halves pairing of both sides are quite even but I slightly give the edge to the Dogs with Reynolds the x-factor and Hotkinson the solid consistency. I think Des Hasler's coaching dominance over Ivan Cleary will continue, and I actually see the Dogs winning this one but to be safe will be taking the 3.5 points.

[dRavidC]

22/03/14

NRL Round 3

2* Panthers vs Bulldogs +3.5 WINNER

Would of been nice to bank the dogs when they were at 4.5 but anyway have a feeling that win last week was what the dogs needed to snap these doggies players out of their sleep. I have to admit though, the panthers have looked the better of the two sides thrashing knights then almost beating Melbourne in Melbourne. Bulldogs were disappointing against the Broncos at home then put on a smackdown against a reserve grade sharks team. Dogs have the advantage in the forwards but the panthers i think have a advantage in backline. The halves pairing of both sides are quite even but I slightly give the edge to the Dogs with Reynolds the x-factor and Hotkinson the solid consistency. I think Des Hasler's coaching dominance over Ivan Cleary will continue, and I actually see the Dogs winning this one but to be safe will be taking the 3.5 points.

wow bulldogs had it but panthers score in the last minute to steal the win. i really thought the bulldogs deserved to win that one. panthers dominated early but bulldogs were in control for most of that entire 2nd half. But most importantly, a nice win to put us into the positives for the season.

NRL 2014 Record: 7 - 8

+ 0.24 units

[snufflyjoe]

Really like North queensland here. I went with NQ - 5.5 @1.64

[dRavidC]

Really like North queensland here. I went with NQ - 5.5 @1.64

favourites at the line are almost unplayable in the nrl atm

[dRavidC]

22/03/14

NRL Round 3

2* Storm vs Knights - OVER 40.5

Looking at the h2h records and most teams this season, the UNDER looks like the play right? I get the feeling that Bellamy's had a word to his team about their slumping offence last week and think they respond tonight. Knights know they only way they can really win this is through a low scorer. But if storm score (which I think they will), Knights will have to respond with their points. I can't see this Knights team containing the full strength storm attack. Newcastle are missing two guns in Boyd and Mullen but they still have Gidley and Roberts to get us some points to get this OVER. This total opened up at 42.5 but has dropped down 2 points and I think we have some value to play with here. I have this game capped in the mid 40's and so playing this for 2 units.

[SportsMushroom]

looking good

[hedgejob]

So obvious this gm was going over. So many unders this round and public pounded the under all day thinking this would be easy money.

[dRavidC]

22/03/14

NRL Round 3

2* Storm vs Knights - OVER 40.5 WINNER

Looking at the h2h records and most teams this season, the UNDER looks like the play right? I get the feeling that Bellamy's had a word to his team about their slumping offence last week and think they respond tonight. Knights know they only way they can really win this is through a low scorer. But if storm score (which I think they will), Knights will have to respond with their points. I can't see this Knights team containing the full strength storm attack. Newcastle are missing two guns in Boyd and Mullen but they still have Gidley and Roberts to get us some points to get this OVER. This total opened up at 42.5 but has dropped down 2 points and I think we have some value to play with here. I have this game capped in the mid 40's and so playing this for 2 units.

after a rough start to the season, we are making some positive progress with quite a solid play. this one never looked in doubt. bet was sealed with nearly 20 minutes left in the game. It looked like a close game and it was indeed an entertaining game but where Melbourne were in firm control the moment they took the lead. anyway, be back at it next week.

couple of things i've learnt from these early rounds:
- be very careful with betting large favourites
- defence looks to be of real emphasis so far in these early rounds - a lot more UNDER games than OVERS
- dogs seem much easier to play than favourites
- the gap between the top and bottom teams seems to be narrowing

NRL 2014 Record: 8 - 8

+ 2.24 units

[KiwiPunt]

Good to see someone with a 50% hit rate, these first few rounds have been a tough ask. Early look at this weekends games show no real huge favourite (think Souths at 1.35 was the shortest) so another tough week ahead.

[dRavidC]

29/03/14

NRL Round 4

2* Warriors -6 vs Tigers

[dRavidC]

29/03/14

NRL Round 4

2* Warriors -6 vs Tigers WINNER

looked bleaked when tigers took 12-0 but then warrirs scored 3 tries in the final 10 minutes of the half then pounded another 5 tries in the 2nd half. if the warriors play like this every week, watch out! another solid play.

NRL 2014 Record: 9 - 8

+ 4.06 units

[dRavidC]

04/04/14

NRL Round 5

2* Roosters vs Bulldogs +6.5

SBW returns for roosters after a scoreless game last week. I have a feeling they're be really fired up for this one. But on the other side of the ledger is a near full strength bulldogs side (missing Kasiano & Pritchard). Even still, since the 2nd half of that Panthers game, the Bulldogs have looked really good. I think the Roosters win but I think it'll be really close.

TRENDS: Roosters are 1-3 against the spread as a favourite.

2* Brisbane vs Parramatta OVER 44.5

Think this game will be an absolute try gest. Brisbane will get their points and Parra will get theres. Think Brisbane win it, don't know if they're necessarily blowout the eels but like I said I do see both teams scoring enough to get this game over the posted total.

TRENDS: Broncos are 2-2 O/U while Eels are 3-1 O/U.

[dRavidC]

04/04/14

NRL Round 5

2* Roosters vs Bulldogs +6.5 WINNER

SBW returns for roosters after a scoreless game last week. I have a feeling they're be really fired up for this one. But on the other side of the ledger is a near full strength bulldogs side (missing Kasiano & Pritchard). Even still, since the 2nd half of that Panthers game, the Bulldogs have looked really good. I think the Roosters win but I think it'll be really close.

TRENDS: Roosters are 1-3 against the spread as a favourite.

2* Brisbane vs Parramatta OVER 44.5 LOSER

Think this game will be an absolute try gest. Brisbane will get their points and Parra will get theres. Think Brisbane win it, don't know if they're necessarily blowout the eels but like I said I do see both teams scoring enough to get this game over the posted total.

TRENDS: Broncos are 2-2 O/U while Eels are 3-1 O/U.

Bulldogs play was never in doubt. Broncos & Parra misses by 1.5 points, thanks to a 16 point 1st half.

NRL 2014 Record: 10 - 9

+ 3.88 units

[dRavidC]

06/04/14

NRL Round 5

2* Storm vs Titans +11.5

Can't ignore this strong trend, Storm are a miserable 0-3 ATS as favs and Titans are 3-0 ATS as dogs. Yes the storm have been winning games but it hasn't been convincing and now they play a red hot Titans outfit. They had one off day with that loss against Tigers but other than that have been really on the ball this season. I think the storm win it but titans definitely to keep it within the number.

[dRavidC]

06/04/14

NRL Round 5

2* Storm vs Titans +11.5 WINNER

Can't ignore this strong trend, Storm are a miserable 0-3 ATS as favs and Titans are 3-0 ATS as dogs. Yes the storm have been winning games but it hasn't been convincing and now they play a red hot Titans outfit. They had one off day with that loss against Tigers but other than that have been really on the ball this season. I think the storm win it but titans definitely to keep it within the number.

easy winner, never in doubt.

NRL 2014 Record: 11 - 9

+ 5.70 units

[dRavidC]

11/04/14

NRL Round 6

both plays fraught with danger especially since dogs are lighting up so far and both plays for against betting trends. but at pickems essentially I can't pick the dog if I don't think they'll win it. but my gut says the favs prevail.

2* Panthers vs Rabbitohs -2.5

2* Titans vs Broncos -2

[HeisenBet]

I fancy the Broncos, lean to Souths and really like the over in their game.

[BigNik]

Jumped all over the Sportsbet special this week. Souths and Broncos multi paying $5

[HeisenBet]

The over is toast, can't believe how many dropped balls there are because of the rain, poor skills.

[HeisenBet]

Ben Barba is not looking like a good signing at this point. How easy was it to take the ball away from him? in his own in goal FFS. Weak.