THE Rugby Thread (easysaid, RLF, Sando & others)

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  • Duff85
    SBR MVP
    • 06-15-10
    • 2920

    #106
    Originally posted by aussieH
    Great picks Sando


    What is going wrong with Fiji. They love their union and would. Be shattered with that performance

    Unusual sports bet don't have the Russian game up
    I thought they the lot up. Sometimes they list games their competition names - technically the Russian game was apart of some international comp with Canada, the US and someone else. I use that games in the next 24 hours view on Sportsbet to make sure i'm not missing a game.
    Comment
    • Duff85
      SBR MVP
      • 06-15-10
      • 2920

      #107
      Originally posted by Duff85
      a lot of games fall around the number, it is about trying to get as close to the best price you can get on either side.

      Even though I have backed the opposite of RLF in most games tonight, i'd also be happy to have his tickets in most cases due to the fact that he is close to the best number on the other side in each game.
      Originally posted by Duff85
      Have so far got a couple of home underdogs down, will be looking to add some more plays later.

      Going with:
      Italy+30.5 and +31.5 against New Zealand (Sportsbet) lost by the hook

      Scotland+11.5 (1.91) against South Africa (Centrebet) won by the hook
      This is what I meant about the sharpness of the line - backing whichever side you can get the best number on is going to do well long term. Trust me on this.
      Comment
      • davopnz
        SBR MVP
        • 02-12-12
        • 1736

        #108
        Comment
        • sando
          SBR MVP
          • 04-30-12
          • 3723

          #109
          After a great start with the Samoa pick and the AUS and NZ unders it was a very dissapointing finish. Those that missed the Russian game should consider themselves lucky as the pick was a lost and they were terrible anyway against an un impressive Canadian team. Also in hindsight the 2nd half bet on AUS/England match was a poor pick. I said myself in the very first post that we would keep it simple with ATS and O/U picks, and stay away from the prop bets. Luckily we've been hitting on the bigger picks so despite being 4-7 we are only down less than 2 units and I am confident we can turn things around this w/e with some smart picks.

          YTD 4-7

          -1.66 Units

          *Note - I have had the most success in wagering on Rugby on the Sevens World Series. It is by far my strongest area, followed by ITM cup and then International Rugby. Don't bet on Super Rugby as it clashes with AFL. Anyway the next Sevens tournament is on the W/E of Nov 30 and Dec 1st. Usually take the whole w/e off from all sports to focus purely on sevens, as with games being played every 20 mins all day for two days it demands your full attention (at least if you plan on making a profit). I got off to a great start in the first leg in AUS last month finishing up 12+ units after two days and picking some big dogs along the way that won at the m/l (Kenya over AUS, SA over NZ - easy money). Will be posting picks throughout the upcoming tournament and will have more info soon.
          Comment
          • TBsp75
            SBR Sharp
            • 06-01-09
            • 267

            #110
            -5.5 Ireland v Argentina
            +14.5 Italy v Australia
            even England v South Africa
            -13.5 Scotland v Tonga
            -14.5 France v Samoa
            +17.5 Wales v New Zealand

            thoughts ppl? i quite like italy+14.5 they had pretty decent defence against abs last week. -13.5 is way too much for scotland to cover, don't think they have the offense to do it. argen +5.5 looks ok but history suggest they play badly in dublin.
            Comment
            • Byrone09
              SBR High Roller
              • 11-02-12
              • 184

              #111
              I'm reading up a bit on Rugby a bit and look forward to watching a match soon. Been tailing Sando in NBA so I tried out Rugby as well. Looking forward to learning a new sport and hopefully winning money with everybody. Sando I hope you still do NBA that weekend but I'll understand if you have your priorities.
              Comment
              • sweepem
                SBR Sharp
                • 04-26-11
                • 459

                #112
                Italy +14.5 (Australia won't blow out any decent team, they'll win but not by more than 2 converted tries).
                Tonga +13.5 (they only lost by 5 points againts Italy and i don't think Italy is much worse than Scotland)

                The other games are difficult to predict.

                If Wales have any pride left they should cover the 17.5 spread, if not they'll lose by 20+ points.
                England should win at home against South Africa. Didn't see their game against Australia but South Africa looked very tired the last 20 minutes against Scotland. It was basically a powerplay by Scotland.
                Ireland-Argentina will be close, maybe wait till the spread reaches +7?
                Comment
                • TBsp75
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 06-01-09
                  • 267

                  #113
                  Originally posted by sweepem
                  Italy +14.5 (Australia won't blow out any decent team, they'll win but not by more than 2 converted tries).
                  Tonga +13.5 (they only lost by 5 points againts Italy and i don't think Italy is much worse than Scotland)

                  The other games are difficult to predict.

                  If Wales have any pride left they should cover the 17.5 spread, if not they'll lose by 20+ points.
                  England should win at home against South Africa. Didn't see their game against Australia but South Africa looked very tired the last 20 minutes against Scotland. It was basically a powerplay by Scotland.
                  Ireland-Argentina will be close, maybe wait till the spread reaches +7?
                  i think wales can cover. they got couple of injured players back and after 2 home loses they gonna play their hearts out against the abs. SA has serious problem on their kicking game(or their fly-half). this match could go either way, eng is the fav. here tho. goin for under if totals came out higher than 45.
                  Comment
                  • sando
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-30-12
                    • 3723

                    #114
                    ...
                    Comment
                    • davopnz
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-12-12
                      • 1736

                      #115
                      any thoughts on the canada vs maori abs game tomorrow -22.5? i wasnt impressed by the maoris last week, they looked really poor against a bunch of non pros although i gather canada are in no form atm
                      Comment
                      • easysaid
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 05-18-12
                        • 690

                        #116
                        Originally posted by davopnz
                        any thoughts on the canada vs maori abs game tomorrow -22.5? i wasnt impressed by the maoris last week, they looked really poor against a bunch of non pros although i gather canada are in no form atm
                        Would definitely take the -22.5 here, canada are terrible and like you said the maori ab's cant surely play any worse than last week.

                        The play of the season has to be italy + the points, no way aussie are in shape to blow-out anyside and the italians will look to go the full 80 this time after going toe-to-toe with the world champs for half a game. biiiiiiiiiiiiiig play here!
                        Comment
                        • RLF
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-23-10
                          • 760

                          #117
                          Canada will cover that 20, the Maoris struggled at times against the Championship XV. Canada are much better than them and beat Russia 35-3. Will need to see if they're getting any more players back.
                          Comment
                          • davopnz
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-12-12
                            • 1736

                            #118
                            no kleeburger/dth van de merwe worries me for canada, i loved canada at the wc but this looks like a very average side.

                            VERY hard to back the maoris though

                            do love italy
                            Comment
                            • RLF
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-23-10
                              • 760

                              #119
                              They haven't played all year, got Jebb Sinclair back who helped them a lot.

                              Australia will win by 20 or more. Very determined to beat the inconsistency behind them and pile on the points. Best Australia XV all year.
                              Comment
                              • davopnz
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-12-12
                                • 1736

                                #120
                                best australia xv all year? someone forgot about when the wallabies had genia, horwill, pocock etc at the start of the year.

                                i can't take a team that has cummins, tapuai and sheehan in the starting line up seriously.
                                Comment
                                • Tim Gerry Mander
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-14-12
                                  • 869

                                  #121
                                  add Ioane and Cooper to the mix..... three-quarters of the Wallaby starters are on the sidelines.
                                  Comment
                                  • RLF
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-23-10
                                    • 760

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by davopnz
                                    best australia xv all year? someone forgot about when the wallabies had genia, horwill, pocock etc at the start of the year.

                                    i can't take a team that has cummins, tapuai and sheehan in the starting line up seriously.
                                    Horwill has been out all year, has not played. Sure Genia is better than Sheehan but Hooper is better than Pocock. It's the best pack. Tapuai is a very good player at 12.
                                    Comment
                                    • sando
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-30-12
                                      • 3723

                                      #123
                                      Thanks again everyone for sharing player updates, opinions and most importantly picks. Just working on my picks for this w/e at the moment.

                                      South Africa @ England

                                      Under 35.5 (-110, $1.90 Bet365) 1.5x
                                      *Bet365 is the only book offering an O/U at the moment

                                      South Africa m/l (evens, $2.00 Sportingbet) 1x

                                      *This total seems low, however I actually expect it to come down further. Both teams are tired, SA in particular who are playing their last match of the season, whereas the poms are more lacking match fitness than anything else as their season is just starting off. Both teams have been lacking creativity in attack and also rain is set to fall at Twickenham.

                                      England has not beaten the Bok's since 2006, also SA's big pack and gameplan usually more suited to a wet weather grinding, territory based game.

                                      Australia @ Italy

                                      Italy +14.5 (-110, $1.91 Sportingbet) 2.5x

                                      *Have to agree with easysaid & sweepem here. Italy looks like great value at home with 2 converted try's start + change against a Wallabies line up missing so many of their guns. Italians very competitive for 1 half against worlds best side last w/e. My biggest play of the w/e. (on my mobile atm but will add a proper write-up to support play).
                                      Comment
                                      • davopnz
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-12-12
                                        • 1736

                                        #124
                                        I recommend Italy +7.5 first half personally, i remember italy held aus to 6 all @ the WC before getting blown out in the second half like the all blacks did to them last week
                                        Comment
                                        • TBsp75
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 06-01-09
                                          • 267

                                          #125
                                          you guys like wales +17.5? bit of rain according to forecast. carter ruled out
                                          Comment
                                          • Duff85
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-15-10
                                            • 2920

                                            #126
                                            Yeah I like Wales - took +19.5 (1.82).

                                            As much as I hate to do it, i'm going to take Scotland-13 with the Queensland TAB. Pretty sick to expect Scotland and their shitty style of Rugby to cover any amount, but the line is moving for them, so we'll see what happens.

                                            My other play for the moment is on one of my absolute favoruite teams in International Rugby (other than the Wannabes and Japan). Taking Los Pumas (Argentina) with the 6 point start at Sportingbet.

                                            If your going to do an international rugby parlay of 3 teams or more this weekend don't forget that both Centrebet and I believe Sportingbet are doing a promo where they will boost your odds with a freeplay up to 50% I think.
                                            Comment
                                            • Duff85
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-15-10
                                              • 2920

                                              #127
                                              Oh and despite the Aussies winning last week - i'm going to continue fading them. Italy+14.5 (Sportingbet) 1.91. You can get a $1.92 at Sportsbet but I have to re-up there at the moment.
                                              Comment
                                              • davopnz
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-12-12
                                                • 1736

                                                #128
                                                wales will close the roof if its raining
                                                Comment
                                                • TBsp75
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 06-01-09
                                                  • 267

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by davopnz
                                                  wales will close the roof if its raining
                                                  oh shit their stadium have a roof? i didn't know that. thx for notify.
                                                  but still... i think wales will put 120% into this game after 2 lost at home. so it either will be a close game or blow out line breaks for abs coz wales tried too hard. cruden is good but nt DC like. my fav. bet still gonna be italy+
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TBsp75
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 06-01-09
                                                    • 267

                                                    #130
                                                    ireland v argen under 49.5 looks really good as well. both defensive team with good history of under games (3/12)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Duff85
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-15-10
                                                      • 2920

                                                      #131
                                                      Who do we like between the Boks and England? I'm taking the Boks $1.91 (Sportingbet)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • davopnz
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-12-12
                                                        • 1736

                                                        #132
                                                        tough call, both teams look like crap.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • davopnz
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-12-12
                                                          • 1736

                                                          #133
                                                          i really like georgia +2.5 against fiji.

                                                          georgias forward pack can match 1st tier teams, its their backs that suck but tana umaga is coaching them right now. fiji are a terrible team, georgia will dominate them up front
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TBsp75
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 06-01-09
                                                            • 267

                                                            #134
                                                            boks rely alot on their kicking games, kicking for goal and kick&chase.
                                                            that's why they suckd since steyn having kicking issues. (buried me twice already this nov.)
                                                            eng will play hard after the lost to aus and SA june series. (2 close lost and a draw should've been won)
                                                            slight fav. to the boks coz its wet and they hav solid forward pack.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Duff85
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-15-10
                                                              • 2920

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by TBsp75
                                                              ireland v argen under 49.5 looks really good as well. both defensive team with good history of under games (3/12)
                                                              Where did you get 49.5? Best I could do is 42.5.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • TBsp75
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 06-01-09
                                                                • 267

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Duff85
                                                                Where did you get 49.5? Best I could do is 42.5.
                                                                TAB. only ppl livin in nz can get it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RLF
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-23-10
                                                                  • 760

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Going with Ireland -4.5, Australia -13.5, England +0.5, Scotland -13.5 and Wales +18.5

                                                                  Wasps to beat Leicester as well. Good luck everyone.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Duff85
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-15-10
                                                                    • 2920

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by TBsp75
                                                                    TAB. only ppl livin in nz can get it.
                                                                    Holy shit - just had a look and TAB.co.nz is offering that. Hope you completely abused them on that one.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RLF
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-23-10
                                                                      • 760

                                                                      #139
                                                                      That's way too high, will be around 23-13 I reckon. The last 8 games all went under 49.5... I'd hammer that total if you can.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • davopnz
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-12-12
                                                                        • 1736

                                                                        #140
                                                                        wow i just saw that tab do have that total....crazy, pity my tab acc is locked
                                                                        Comment
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