THE Rugby Thread (easysaid, RLF, Sando & others)

**sando** · 11-15-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by RLF

I'm going with Wales 1-12 tonight

Wales win by 7 and we're both cheering...

**aussieH** · 11-16-12, 03:45 PM

Samoa looking good at 50 minute mark

**sando** · 11-16-12, 04:25 PM

Boom!

Samoa 26-19 Wales

The Samoans don't just cover the +11.5, they smashed the m/l as well.

YTD 2-3 +0.04 Units

Stay tuned. More Rugby plays to come today...

**sweepem** · 11-16-12, 04:25 PM

lol Samoa wins in Wales.

**mrkipling** · 11-16-12, 04:26 PM

Looking forward to your other plays!

**TBsp75** · 11-16-12, 04:35 PM

good win by samoa. they really improved over the yrs.

goin for abs over 39.5 and sa over 24.5. abs should score 40 points no problem with their backs all having lightening speed and can't see italy stoppin abs forward pack goin forward. the new 5 sec ruck rule definitely giving abs more advantage. sa had a really bad 1st half last week but played well in the 2nd. they lost to scot last time they met so should be looking for revenge and correcting last week's mistakes. sa score over 25 points 7/10 last 10 encounters against scot.

**davopnz** · 11-16-12, 06:15 PM

i thought the wales game was on sunday...fml

**Crowing Capers** · 11-16-12, 06:30 PM

BOOOOOOMMMM

never in doubt

**Duff85** · 11-16-12, 08:14 PM

Have so far got a couple of home underdogs down, will be looking to add some more plays later.

Going with:
Italy+30.5 and +31.5 against New Zealand (Sportsbet) the 31.5 was on the pyol and was because i'm battling pissy limits there. Ave price: $1.88

Scotland+11.5 (1.91) against South Africa (Centrebet)

**RLF** · 11-17-12, 01:05 AM

Damn got too greedy with the 1-12 should've stuck to the line.

On these tonight: Japan -3, Maori -19.5, NZ -28.5, Aus +7.5 & mL, SA -9.5, Russia +20.5, Argentina +10.5

Good luck everyone.

**sando** · 11-17-12, 03:35 AM

International Test Matches

New Zealand v Italy (Stadio Flaminio Rome)

Under 56.5 ($1.90, -110 Sportingbet) 1x

AB's may or may not cover the 28.5 points but Italy (like Argentina) is a much improved team these days and I think this line is a tad too large. Can imagine a 40-12 type score line.

Australia v England (Twickenham Stadium England)

Under 43.5 ($1.90, -110 Sportingbet) 1x
Highest scoring half - 2nd half ($1.70, -142 Sportingbet) 1x

Massive upgrade in the forwards for the Wallabies with the dissapointing Sekope Kepu dropped for Ben Alexander and also Sitaleki Timani return to the squad boosting Australia's pack significantly. I expect a forward dominated bruising encounter in a low scoring affair with the lack of significant playmakers in both backlines. This game should open up a bit in the second half as the forwards tire and errors set in.

Argentina v France (Stade de France Paris)

Argentina +9.5 ($1.91, -110 Sportingbet) 1x
Argentina m/l ($4.20, +320 Sportingbet) 0.5x

Un-fortunately other than some light reading I haven't been able to get seriously stuck into the Rugby the last few days as have been flat out with work and my NBA picks, so we have managed to miss the crucial 10.5 line, which is why I still like this play, but now for no more than 1 unit. Most Rugby heads will probably agree that Les Blues are the most un-predictable side in World Rugby, always have been, it's a French thing haha. If the Frencg team that showed up against the Wallabies last w/e puts in an appearance then the Pumas could be in trouble, however if any other French team shows up, not only can Argentina cover the 9.5 (such a frustrating line if you understand the way a Union game plays out on the score cards), but they can win the game and do so in style. This team is the rising force in world rugby. They are big and passionate, they are surprisingly disciplined at the break down and around the rucks, their set piece play is smooth and usually well executed

Canada v Russia (Parc Eirias - Wales)

Russia +20.5 ($1.91, -110 Sportingbet) 1x

**Duff85** · 11-17-12, 03:43 AM

Staying on the opposite side of RLF, although looking at the numbers it would be nice if we combine for a few middles (both seem to be getting good numbers):

England-6.5

**sando** · 11-17-12, 03:52 AM

Duff and RLF, boys thanks heaps for sharing your plays with everyone.

**Byrone09** · 11-17-12, 05:09 AM

Sorry I don't know much about rugby. Just tailing Sando. Where is this Russia v. Canada game? I don't see it listed under test matches...

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 06:18 AM

i really don't see how italy is much improved....they could hardly beat tonga.

**Duff85** · 11-17-12, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

i really don't see how italy is much improved....they could hardly beat tonga.

Not about if they improved or not. Not about if NZ is looking past them etc... all superficial. With the sharpness of the market in International Rugby Union - ie a lot of games fall around the number, it is about trying to get as close to the best price you can get on either side.

Even though I have backed the opposite of RLF in most games tonight, i'd also be happy to have his tickets in most cases due to the fact that he is close to the best number on the other side in each game.

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 06:30 AM

the abs put up 50 against scotland and scotland are a better team than italy + this abs squad looks more brutal than the one against scotland, i just think thats one of those picks where its a ticking time bomb.

hey i might be wrong but i just don't believe italy are improved

**Duff85** · 11-17-12, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

the abs put up 50 against scotland and scotland are a better team than italy + this abs squad looks more brutal than the one against scotland, i just think thats one of those picks where its a ticking time bomb.

hey i might be wrong but i just don't believe italy are improved

I may be wrong too - but i'm going to trust the collective minds of the market, over one man's opinion.

There is a reason the line moved out of the 30s into the high 20s. Do I know that reason? Nope. Do I care? Nope.

This game isn't about "picking winners". Its about getting a great price and letting the cards fall where they will.

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 06:38 AM

good luck mate but i see lines drop all the time, doesn't mean jack. i saw the lakers total drop from 203 to 201 today.

anyway i think maori abs -20.5 is a gift, they're playing heartland players! thats the division below itm cup incanse you didn't know.

we're talking players here that have been or are borderline all blacks/super 15 players against non professional rugby players!

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 06:46 AM

forgive me its english heartland players....which could be even worse

**benandjerry** · 11-17-12, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by RLF

Damn got too greedy with the 1-12 should've stuck to the line.

On these tonight: Japan -3, Maori -19.5, NZ -28.5, Aus +7.5 & mL, SA -9.5, Russia +20.5, Argentina +10.5

Good luck everyone.

Important try and conversion for Japan just before half after trailing early on, hopefully they can keep it up through 2nd half.

Originally posted by Byrone09

Sorry I don't know much about rugby. Just tailing Sando. Where is this Russia v. Canada game? I don't see it listed under test matches...

I havent seen this posted at many books.

**hawley** · 11-17-12, 07:03 AM

I will be disappointed if this Maori team does not destroy the Championship XV

**hawley** · 11-17-12, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by hawley

I will be disappointed if this Maori team does not destroy the Championship XV

Have the Maoris even trained together? They look terrible

**brumbies** · 11-17-12, 07:27 AM

You can get -15.5 maori live betting now.

**hawley** · 11-17-12, 07:40 AM

Maori first half team total covers. I can relax now.

I think they should blow them away late in the second half. When the half gaps start opening they will run up a score.

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 07:51 AM

-15.5 would have been nice!

i like -34.5 alt line @ 5 bucks...the maoris are not a good team but the champ xv is unprofessional and it shows, maoris can score tries at will when they get the ball in oppositions territory + the champ xv is only going to tire out

**hawley** · 11-17-12, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

-15.5 would have been nice!

i like -34.5 alt line @ 5 bucks...the maoris are not a good team but the champ xv is unprofessional and it shows, maoris can score tries at will when they get the ball in oppositions territory + the champ xv is only going to tire out

edit: dirty backdoor

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

-15.5 would have been nice!

i like -34.5 alt line @ 5 bucks...the maoris are not a good team but the champ xv is unprofessional and it shows, maoris can score tries at will when they get the ball in oppositions territory + the champ xv is only going to tire out

talk about buried

**usfunca** · 11-17-12, 10:57 AM

Nice win on the ABs/Italy under!

**davopnz** · 11-17-12, 11:03 AM

great call on the under! took the abs a bit too long to show up but i got my handicap cover...would have made a killing if the over hit but still made a nice wee profit.

**ThaBigG** · 11-17-12, 11:21 AM

Wallabies +7 is looking like gold right now

**sweepem** · 11-17-12, 11:37 AM

So NZ,South Africa and Australia all cover the spread. The squares will be happy.

Australia is an enigma to me.

You never know what you get.

**benandjerry** · 11-17-12, 11:51 AM

Anyone seeing that russia game anywhere but sportingbet?

**RLF** · 11-17-12, 11:59 AM

Only seen it there mate. Let's go clean sweep.

**aussieH** · 11-17-12, 03:21 PM

Great picks Sando

What is going wrong with Fiji. They love their union and would. Be shattered with that performance

Unusual sports bet don't have the Russian game up