THE Rugby Thread (easysaid, RLF, Sando & others)

benandjerry · 12-14-12, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by RLF

Connacht +15.5
Bordeaux +7.5

Rolling with you for a little tonight (worse Bordeaux number), GL!

Curious for you experienced rugby union cappers, just how key are numbers in rugby union? Think I read someone on here say the key numbers werent so "key" after doing some research, think that only included test matches though. I know I've read NRL studies which show there are some quite important numbers there as far as final score goes.

RLF · 12-14-12, 12:11 PM

+7 is pretty important because in most competitions you get a bonus point if you lose by less than 7. So say a team is down by 10 and with a couple of minutes to go they are in a try scoring position and get a penalty they will take a shot at goal to get within 7 rather than the try.

+3 / -2.5 usually when two teams are close and unlikely to be many tries and will be decided by penalties.

benandjerry · 12-14-12, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by RLF

+7 is pretty important because in most competitions you get a bonus point if you lose by less than 7. So say a team is down by 10 and with a couple of minutes to go they are in a try scoring position and get a penalty they will take a shot at goal to get within 7 rather than the try.

+3 / -2.5 usually when two teams are close and unlikely to be many tries and will be decided by penalties.

Thanks, I understand that reasoning and thought those 2 numbers would be the most important, just wasnt sure completely how it translated into final winning margins with conversions be relatively hard a fair amount of the time. Would also guess 5 & 6 point winning margins are pretty common in that bonus point scenario. Do you have any data on just how common these margins are over a larger sample size?

That was a massive cooler in Heineken cup...

RLF · 12-15-12, 04:26 AM

I don't have any data but my rule is generally determining what type of team I'm betting on/against. Teams are usually known as ones that will kick penalty goals and others that will score tries. If they're kicking penalty goals 3, 6, 9 etc. are important but if they're try scorers then 2, 4, 5, 7 etc. are important.

Yeah Biarritz scored in the 79th minute last night.. Just needed one goal from Connacht.

benandjerry · 12-15-12, 10:19 AM

Thanks, makes perfect sense. I'm still a bit curious on the numbers percentage wise, I may have to do some research on that if I can find some good historical databases with results.

And the fact that they successfully converted both tries in those horrid conditions... bad beat at its worst (even had +16).

Playing anything on tonight matches?

RLF · 12-16-12, 09:06 AM

Saracens -5

thorny · 12-21-12, 08:56 AM

any thoughts on the matches Saturday morning?

benandjerry · 12-21-12, 01:14 PM

Great call on Saracens last weekend, didnt watch most of the match but they seem to have made a nice late recovery.

anyone rolling with anything for tonights Pro 12?

RLF · 12-28-12, 10:15 PM

If anyone is interested in 2013 I'll be posting all my rugby bets on twitter under @rugby_bets

grim259 · 12-28-12, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by RLF

If anyone is interested in 2013 I'll be posting all my rugby bets on twitter under @rugby_bets

This is just what I was hoping for from one of you guys. Can you let me know when it is up and running? I can't seem to find it right now.

RLF · 12-28-12, 11:17 PM

it's up now http://twitter.com/rugby_bets

I'll start posting in 2013

grim259 · 12-28-12, 11:29 PM

First follower for you.

benandjerry · 12-29-12, 06:14 AM

Awesome, will make it easier for sure! Hope you all had a great Christmas, and Happy New Year in advance!

Rolling with anything for this afternoons matches in aviva and pro 12?

RLF · 12-29-12, 09:47 AM

Exeter 1-12
Wasps -3

RLF · 12-29-12, 10:38 AM

Glasgow +2
Ulster +15.5
Connacht +15

TBsp75 · 12-29-12, 04:56 PM

great picks RFL

RLF · 12-30-12, 04:58 AM

Northampton +7

RLF · 12-30-12, 05:33 AM

Bayonne +17.5
Grenoble 1-12
Biarritz -5
Stade Francais +12.5
Toulon vs Perpignan >42.5

msharris1428 · 12-31-12, 10:15 AM

Any pick for today's game? I'm leaning towards taking Newport +8.5 at 5dimes. Seems to be a good number considering Ospreys road form isn't great, they are missing some experienced players, and Newport is getting a key player back. Thoughts?

oBaMa_MaNiA · 01-10-13, 05:05 AM

challenge cup matches anyone?

grim259 · 01-11-13, 11:02 AM

RLF wondering if there were any single game picks? I use bovada and cannot take your multi bet. They only tease basketball and football.

sando · 01-12-13, 03:20 AM

RLF any Heineken cup action today mate?

Tim Gerry Mander · 01-12-13, 05:35 AM

From his twitter account:

Grenoble -3 @ 1.90 (1.5x)
Cavalieri +22.5 @ 1.90 (1x)
Bucharest +7 @ 1.90 (1x)
Zebre +11.5 @ 1.90 (2x)

Tim Gerry Mander · 01-12-13, 06:05 AM

Play added:

Saracens +1.5 @ 1.90 (2x)

Two more plays:

U Monye (Harlequins) to score a try @ 2.37 (0.75x)
Cardiff +23 @ 1.90 (1x)

sando · 01-12-13, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

From his twitter account:

Grenoble -3 @ 1.90 (1.5x)
Cavalieri +22.5 @ 1.90 (1x)
Bucharest +7 @ 1.90 (1x)
Zebre +11.5 @ 1.90 (2x)

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Play added:

Saracens +1.5 @ 1.90 (2x)

Two more plays:

U Monye (Harlequins) to score a try @ 2.37 (0.75x)
Cardiff +23 @ 1.90 (1x)

Thanks mate...

davopnz · 01-12-13, 02:03 PM

super 15 is within sight, can't wait to start making some money again

davopnz · 01-13-13, 03:53 AM

crusaders have a brutal start to the season...2nd round bye(first round really, only 2 games first round)..then to eden park, then to westpac...then back to home to face the bulls...one easy game against the kings...then off to play the stormers in SA then the sharks in SA...then stop back via perth...then back home against the highlanders...

TBsp75 · 01-27-13, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by davopnz

crusaders have a brutal start to the season...2nd round bye(first round really, only 2 games first round)..then to eden park, then to westpac...then back to home to face the bulls...one easy game against the kings...then off to play the stormers in SA then the sharks in SA...then stop back via perth...then back home against the highlanders...

and they lost guildford but as a saders fan, i really dun mind a new wing. guildford has strength, speed and great amount of workload but he just doesn't fit in to the team. catching and passing skill not up to the level yet as well.

early lines.
rebel -8.5 vs force
brumbies -3.5 vs reds
thoughts ppl? i really like reds + depends on their line up. any1 know status to genia? cooper fit enough to box so should be good to go.

sando · 01-30-13, 09:47 PM

Wellington Rugby Sevens tomorrow. Will be posting my plays throughout the two days and if RLF is around then I'm sure he will post some plays too.

davopnz · 01-30-13, 11:34 PM

If Cecil Afrika is playing i'm all over SA +2

sando · 01-31-13, 01:10 PM

Rugby Sevens Wellington

Round 1.

Just going to start off small until I get a good look at the teams in play.

Kenya +5.5 (v. France) 0.5x ($1.90 Bet 365)
Argentina -7 (v.Tonga) 1.5x ($1.87 Luxbet)
South Africa +5.5 (v. Samoa) 0.5x ($1.90 Bet 365)
Portugal +10.5 (v. Australia) 0.5x ($1.90 Bet 365)
Spain +1.5 (v. USA) 0.5x ($1.90 Bet 365)

davopnz · 01-31-13, 06:20 PM

SA are without their big trio of Brown, du Preez and Afrika. Lolu Lui back for Samoa as well so leaning the opposite way on that one now. Portugal are missing 3 players as well

one of the tougher opening cards

davopnz · 01-31-13, 07:27 PM

Woohoo Kenya

TBsp75 · 01-31-13, 07:40 PM

2 for 2 so far. great start

davopnz · 01-31-13, 07:41 PM

Not sure what way to go on the next game, I'll never forgive Samoa for that stint against Canada but SA are pretty depleted