Horse Racing questions and answers

[jw]

Not sure why I'm always hesitant to talk to'em.

I find simply standing within earshot and saying something like "God Damn (insert name of top jokey here) screws me every damn time" generally starts the old-timers off to the point that they are impossible to shut-up ...

;0)

p.s.

Normally helps if you first make sure the jockey was not only riding in the last race .. but that he didn't win it .. though that always doesn't matter with some of these old guys ... the're generally ready to talk to anyone that'll listen to them.

[str]

I find simply standing within earshot and saying something like "God Damn (insert name of top jokey here) screws me every damn time" generally starts the old-timers off to the point that they are impossible to shut-up ...

;0)

p.s.

Normally helps if you first make sure the jockey was not only riding in the last race .. but that he didn't win it .. though that always doesn't matter with some of these old guys ... the're generally ready to talk to anyone that'll listen to them.

So True!

[AbeFroman]

Hi Str,

Here's a question for you... Can you elaborate some on the claiming game? What are the tricks and how do trainers tell when to claim a horse and when the best time would be to do it, etc.? Thanks!

[robmpink]

Being a trainer roughly how many times did your jockey run so piss poor in a race he/she was a fav, that you were practically convinced he was paid off? If any, how did you handle it? Just find a new jock or rip into him?

[str]

Hi Str,

Here's a question for you... Can you elaborate some on the claiming game? What are the tricks and how do trainers tell when to claim a horse and when the best time would be to do it, etc.? Thanks!

I cannot speak to what all the trainers look for but I will tell you what some of my angles were. Back in the 80s the claiming ranks primarily consisted of the following.
5,000
6,500
8500,
11,500
14,500,
18,500
25,000
Those races were run both short and long. Remembering that I was in Md. , several things came into play. In no particular order, here they are:
I had a large stable that probably had at least one horse for most spots. Short and long would be 28 spots( short,long, boys and girls), . Because horses moved up and down the ladder this was a work in progress. Anytime I had a void I would look to fill in those areas but being patient was a key. Having 3 or 4 horses for one type of race was not good. If that scenario occurred, I would usually decide to move one down and win with them hopefully but be O.K. if I lost that horse in doing so. I used to see guys lose a horse in the 4th race and replace them before the 9th .That to me, was crazy but smaller stables feared they might lose the empty stall to someone else if not filled right away.
I , along with other trainers would go to the paddock for every race. I would look at each horse , each race and write down what I could see. Leg problems, excess weight, foot problems,odd equipment( bits), you name it, I would try and know it. I kept all of my programs for years at a time. ( Still have a pack from Bowie summer of 79 . It was my first and only leading trainer meeting and I saved all of them. Racing against Dutrow, Leatherbury, Delp, Tammaro and Alfano back then was murder!)
Anyway, after doing this for a few months, you can research any horse coming up in a claiming race by going back to your notes from the previous 10 races and finding what you see. You can also see WHEN a leg problem might have originated that will help you figure out why a horse is moving up or down the ladder. This along with watching all the horses warm up for every race, then watching the race and all the horses come back to the saddling area, you have plenty of detail to make a solid case for why you should or should not claim a horse. I am sure that many guys still do this. Go to the paddock and see who is writing down leg problems and looking at horses. It is something that most people do not realize is even going on. That is why I loved it. I tried to outwork and outsmart the other trainers. It takes a lot of time but it was indeed a form of gambling in that , I didn't have time to bet many races, I was preparing to bet by claiming a horse and risking money that way.
Now that you had a library of info you could go to work. I always perferred to claim a horse off of an outfit that I knew did not have much working capital. They had to cut corners to make ends meet. That means, shoeing the horse every 5-6 weeks instead of 4. Huge difference. Also, vet work. Lots of guys could not afford to jug a horse after a race. (An I.V. that replenished electrolytes and vitamins that were lost during racing). Every horse I claimed was immediately wormed, had there teeth floated, and jugged at least once. All of these things cost money but are completely legal. Many horses had such bad teeth that when they chewed down , the sharp teeth hurt their gum's so much that they would avoid clamping down fully. As a result, they would drop some of there food in to the straw or swallow it without breaking the oats. Therefore, not the full nutritional value needed to perform to their maximum ability. In some cases, merely fixing these simple things led to winning first time back and improving the horse drastically.
Another thing I did with a large stable, was to get a horse that I could not beat out of the way. I would claim it because the horses that I had for that spot could not beat him/her and in doing so, was able to win with the others. I could simply wait 30 days and then run the new horse back or better still , claim the horse towards the end of a meeting and send the horse out of town ( Phila. Penn.,Monmouth) , hopefully win, and if I lose the horse, great. I just got rid of a horse that I could not beat with my other horses.Usually worked out very well.
Bud Delp was a GREAT trainer. I am sure he forgot more about horses than I ever knew but... having worked for his arch enemy while learning the game, I was well aware of the pattern he had developed. The rules of claiming were different then. At the beginning of every meet , each owner had to run a horse at the new meet before being eligible to claim a horse at that meet.Bud would drop a few horses down for an easy win, the first day of every meet. Having figured this out, I would try to find out what the first carded race of a new meet was going to be( easier said than done). Having a couple of horses always available to run, I would do my best to get one in the first couple of races with my primary claiming owner. Then I would do my homework and attack Bud on opening day. I did this for about two years(4 meets per year). He got so damn mad at me , chased me down and threatened me once at Del. Park, saying he would put me out of business. Bud changed shortly thereafter but not because of me, he got Spectacular Bid .
There are many reasons to claim a horse but in most cases it comes down to thinking that you can improve it for whatever the reason. It is a very tough game but a lot of effort beforehand swings the odds in your favor to some extent.
I would suggest to follow the guys who do well claiming at the circuit you pay the most attention to. Find if they do better with boys or girls or short or long. In most cases they have a certain type of horse that they do very well with.
Hope that helps.

[str]

Being a trainer roughly how many times did your jockey run so piss poor in a race he/she was a fav, that you were practically convinced he was paid off? If any, how did you handle it? Just find a new jock or rip into him?

I never thought that they were paid off. I had a closer relationship with most of them at my home tracks but shipping in from afar and not knowing the rider, I guess it might have crossed my mind a couple of times. I don't think there was any part of the game that got to me more than when a jockey made a stupid mistake. I always understood that mistakes would be a part of the game. Of course. But to me there were mistakes and there were stupid mistakes. I don't think that most riders realize that a stupid mistake can undue weeks or months of work. I must admit that I did not handle that very well. Again, because I had a larger stable, the jock was probably with me in the morning a fair amount of time. We would be able to discuss a lot of different things and it did not happen very often. Also, when I started out I was quite young compared to most other trainers. The older riders that rode for me( Leroy Moyers, Herb Hinojosa,Phil Grove,) just to name a few were very professional and rarely made what I would classify a stupid mistake. I did seem to gravitate towards younger riders at times , I suppose because I too was young . Guys like Bryan Fann , Vince Braccialle and Larry Saumell who were veterans but more my age were so good that it rarely happened as well. And before Chris McCarron left for California the things he could get a horse to do were off the charts. He was in another world! We grew up at Bowie at the same time. Good friend, best rider I ever rode.
There was a jock named Tommy Kupfer who started riding for John Tammaro in the late 70s. He was dubbed the next Steve Cauthen while crushing the other jocks at the Meadowlands one fall. When he came to Md. I rode him all the time. From time to time he would make a stupid mistake but when you get the 5 lbs. off I guess it's the price one must sometimes pay. He was a tremendous talent and a gifted jockey but injury and personal problems cut that short.
Several of my life long friends and I still get together a couple times a year for the Derby or B.C. races . About every other time we reminisce one of them brings up the time that they were there and I stood up and threw my chair out of my box seat and it slid down the walkway when a jockey left the fence at the 3/16 pole on probably the strongest rail bias I had ever witnessed in my life. A horse came up the rail and beat me a neck and I just went off. I met that unnamed little !#%$@*&*and chewed on him from the track all the way back to the jocks room. I can laugh now but I was livid. By the way , I threw it when he did it, not at the finish line. Also, had jocks stand up before the finish line or at the wrong wire. My mentor warned me too repeat the instructions over and over in the paddock because the jocks had to remember them for 10 minutes before the race.
He also said that "we have never had a 4 foot President".
Not really fair but pretty funny.
Thanks for the Question Rob, that was fun to remember.

[mattd83]

I've had luck a few times recently, watching for horses whose M/L odds were middle of the pack or rather long. I bet those horses when the odds drop considerably, when there is no apparent reason (ie track announcer picks them). Example - last time I was there, one horse's m/l was 16-1, but rapidly dropped to 3-1. I bet 3 times my normal bet, and it paid off.

I guess my philosophy is that when this happens, someone with a lot of money must know something really good about this horse...

These opportunities don't come up on every race, but when they do, they seem to pay off.

Am I on to something? Or just dumb and really lucky???

Thanks

[str]

I've had luck a few times recently, watching for horses whose M/L odds were middle of the pack or rather long. I bet those horses when the odds drop considerably, when there is no apparent reason (ie track announcer picks them). Example - last time I was there, one horse's m/l was 16-1, but rapidly dropped to 3-1. I bet 3 times my normal bet, and it paid off.

I guess my philosophy is that when this happens, someone with a lot of money must know something really good about this horse...

These opportunities don't come up on every race, but when they do, they seem to pay off.

Am I on to something? Or just dumb and really lucky???

Thanks

Yes. You are on to something more often than not. If the guy setting the morning line is decent at his job, then you are following what some players call " smart money". It does work sometimes but I would be careful betting 2 or 3 times your normal amount. If these horses that show money are off a layoff and there is no other solid info to back up a reason to play the horse, sure, someone knows something. Same would apply if the horse ran poorly last time out with no apparent reason. A lot depends on the pool size though. If it is very small , a 100.00 bet might bump the odds so be careful.But in most cases if you are seeing this with 4 minutes or less before post time, it certainly is a decent option. You can also check the exacta prices to verify even betting patterns. If they are inconsistent, that usually means that the majority of play is from maybe just a few people. Also , if you like a horse already and see this going on with another horse, maybe box those two for a couple of bucks. Again, the payout might be actually higher because he is more like a 10-1 shot in the exactas but is a 3-1 shot on the board with late movement.
Proceed with caution but it sounds good too me.

[mattd83]

Yes. You are on to something more often than not. If the guy setting the morning line is decent at his job, then you are following what some players call " smart money". It does work sometimes but I would be careful betting 2 or 3 times your normal amount. If these horses that show money are off a layoff and there is no other solid info to back up a reason to play the horse, sure, someone knows something. Same would apply if the horse ran poorly last time out with no apparent reason. A lot depends on the pool size though. If it is very small , a 100.00 bet might bump the odds so be careful.But in most cases if you are seeing this with 4 minutes or less before post time, it certainly is a decent option. You can also check the exacta prices to verify even betting patterns. If they are inconsistent, that usually means that the majority of play is from maybe just a few people. Also , if you like a horse already and see this going on with another horse, maybe box those two for a couple of bucks. Again, the payout might be actually higher because he is more like a 10-1 shot in the exactas but is a 3-1 shot on the board with late movement.
Proceed with caution but it sounds good too me.

Thanks for your feedback. This stuff interests the hell outta me.

[foryourhandicap]

Try and pay attention to which race track you are betting. That method holds a lot of water at certain tracks, and means nothing at others.

[mattd83]

Try and pay attention to which race track you are betting. That method holds a lot of water at certain tracks, and means nothing at others.

I've only played this strategy at Lone Star. The few times I've played it, it worked like a charm.


Another question for you guys, along the same lines----
How often do owners/trainers make sizable bets on their horses? I would think that if the owner or trainer is confident enough to put a stack of his hard-earned cash on their horse, perhaps thats a good indicator that they fully expect to win.

If you think this does apply, how would you go about figuring out who has their money on which horse?



quick story - I first started keeping up with horses when Big Brown ran the Kentucky Derby. I read an article on ESPN that the owner or trainer (can't remember which) put like 50-75k dollars on him to win. I thought to myself, "man, thats a pretty strong statement." So, I went straight to my sportsbook and placed $100 on Big Brown to win....and I won.

[str]

I've only played this strategy at Lone Star. The few times I've played it, it worked like a charm.


Another question for you guys, along the same lines----
How often do owners/trainers make sizable bets on their horses? I would think that if the owner or trainer is confident enough to put a stack of his hard-earned cash on their horse, perhaps thats a good indicator that they fully expect to win.

If you think this does apply, how would you go about figuring out who has their money on which horse?



quick story - I first started keeping up with horses when Big Brown ran the Kentucky Derby. I read an article on ESPN that the owner or trainer (can't remember which) put like 50-75k dollars on him to win. I thought to myself, "man, thats a pretty strong statement." So, I went straight to my sportsbook and placed $100 on Big Brown to win....and I won.

I would not pay any attention to owners and trainers betting large amounts of money. If a trainer was a 20.00 bettor and bet 400.00 then yes but how in the world would you know that. I have seen trainers that loved there horse at 10-1 or more bet nothing or 20.00 to win and I have known trainers that bet large on darn near every horse they run. Also seen trainers that swear that they will win every time they get in to a race. Unless things have changed drastically in the last ten years most are not real sharp in the betting arena. I will tell you this. The trainers that are paying attention to the smallest of details do not have time to bet seriously to the point where they are figuring out proper investment strategies. They might be great at setting up a race for a jockey and great at managing a horse up to a race but truly have very little idea of how to play in to a race from a smart gambling strategy. I am sure that plenty of people will not believe me on this one but too the best of my ability , this is how I feel , what I witnessed and how it is. Trainers have been taught how to train . Not many have been taught how to bet.
Owners are for the most part out of the loop as far as betting is concerned. At least mine were. Some owners always bet on all there horses . Some do not. I would totally avoid that angle.
This makes the previous post of mine about " smart money" sound like , " If most trainers do not know and if most owners do not know , then how smart is the money?" Well, some trainers or owners do know, but not many. Some jock agents sometimes know that there rider got hit in the face with a small stone flying back at them in the track sand last time and there jock was lucky not to fall off, or the horse busted his head in the gate last race just before the start and ran the race with his bell rung , or several local pro gamblers know that the horse is coming out of a key race and 1/2 the previous field has already won and this one probably will also, or the clockers know that this horse worked against a stakes horse and got beat a neck last week, it went unpublished and the horse is in for a tag and probably can't lose if he runs back to the workout or the blinker strap did not hold and they spun around and blinded the horse for 1/2 the race last time and he should have won then and is in easier tonight . These are all things that can and have happened in a race and I could go on and on.
As far as Ricky is concerned (trainer of Big Brown) , it would be nothing for him to have 20k on anything at anytime.A horse, a game, hell, rain or snow. Anything. That is who he has been since he was 12 and I cannot imagine that changing .Glad you cashed your ticket but that angle is not one that I would recommend either.

[AbeFroman]

Being in the business I am, I talk to a lot of trainers and owners from a neutral perspective, and a perfect example is today. One half of a partnership will be betting a sizable amount on their horse in an upcoming stakes race, while the other is less confident and won't be making a wager. The man making the bet told me he thinks his horse is going to win no matter what odds it goes off at, and while this may be true, it's more blind loyalty than anything else.

But to sort of put this all together, I sat behind a trainer I spoke with a few weeks back when a horse went through his workout and he said there is no way he can't win his next race. The next race comes around and I see said trainer at the track, and follow him to the machine. Sure enough, a guy that rarely bets his ponies puts 300 on his horse to win, and it does by 5 lengths.

So I guess the moral of the story is, while it happens every now and then, as STR said, it certainly isn't reliable, and if you want to definitely follow it, you better get to know some people and start talking around.

Finally, I have found this to be reliant. If you ever can figure out a jockey's family, follow them to the window and see what they do. I've done this a few time, and nine times out of ten it will give you a horse to leave off your exata ticket or win ticket. For whatever reason, these folks bet sizable amounts of money (which if you're familiar with my home track of Penn you know can move the odds quickly) on their cousin/brother/dad/husband/son's horse, only to have it finish no where in contention. Nice way to find some overlays.

[Dark Horse]

I've only played this strategy at Lone Star. The few times I've played it, it worked like a charm.

Happens the other way around too. I had a horse today at Woodbine. ML was 10-1. Took me plenty of time to cap that race, and that was my pick. All the way down to 2-1... Felt like such a waste of time. (horse won).

[mattd83]

Happens the other way around too. I had a horse today at Woodbine. ML was 10-1. Took me plenty of time to cap that race, and that was my pick. All the way down to 2-1... Felt like such a waste of time. (horse won).

Thats my point.... I look for horses with m/l of 10-1 to 30-1. When those odds go down suspiciously too much, that's when I bet. 2-1 isn't great, but you could use that horse in an exacta?

[Mike_79]

I've had luck a few times recently, watching for horses whose M/L odds were middle of the pack or rather long. I bet those horses when the odds drop considerably, when there is no apparent reason (ie track announcer picks them). Example - last time I was there, one horse's m/l was 16-1, but rapidly dropped to 3-1. I bet 3 times my normal bet, and it paid off.

I guess my philosophy is that when this happens, someone with a lot of money must know something really good about this horse...

These opportunities don't come up on every race, but when they do, they seem to pay off.

Am I on to something? Or just dumb and really lucky???

Thanks

If something like this interests you, try and follow Gulfstream Park in South Florida when they return. I believe their next meet runs from early December to early April. The early money there is eerily smart. This isn't something I normally follow, but I always at least take a glance at the early money there. It's unreal how many times it's right.

To the original thread starter, absolutely great thread man and thanks for taking the time. I love every aspect of the game.

[Dark Horse]

Very interesting info about that claiming business, str.

How important do you feel the jockey is? As important as the pitcher in baseball? Just to be sure, since I don't ride horses, is the jockey responsible for a clean trip, without bumping and with uninterrupted momentum, or can the horse pick those narrow open lanes as well? Reason I ask is the last Kentucky Derby, where Velazquez was threading the needle much in the same way as the famous Borel win on the same track with Street Sense a few years back. Borel stuck to the rail, but the threading the needle part was very similar. If that is mostly the jockey, could he (at times) be more important than the horse...? Or does the importance of finding those narrow alleys increase with larger fields, making the rider less of a factor in smaller races? (Would be great if the racebook had an 'action' or 'listed jockey' option as in baseball).

[str]

Being in the business I am, I talk to a lot of trainers and owners from a neutral perspective, and a perfect example is today. One half of a partnership will be betting a sizable amount on their horse in an upcoming stakes race, while the other is less confident and won't be making a wager. The man making the bet told me he thinks his horse is going to win no matter what odds it goes off at, and while this may be true, it's more blind loyalty than anything else.

But to sort of put this all together, I sat behind a trainer I spoke with a few weeks back when a horse went through his workout and he said there is no way he can't win his next race. The next race comes around and I see said trainer at the track, and follow him to the machine. Sure enough, a guy that rarely bets his ponies puts 300 on his horse to win, and it does by 5 lengths.

So I guess the moral of the story is, while it happens every now and then, as STR said, it certainly isn't reliable, and if you want to definitely follow it, you better get to know some people and start talking around.

Finally, I have found this to be reliant. If you ever can figure out a jockey's family, follow them to the window and see what they do. I've done this a few time, and nine times out of ten it will give you a horse to leave off your exata ticket or win ticket. For whatever reason, these folks bet sizable amounts of money (which if you're familiar with my home track of Penn you know can move the odds quickly) on their cousin/brother/dad/husband/son's horse, only to have it finish no where in contention. Nice way to find some overlays.

HAHAHA You are so right about jockeys families betting. They , for the most part , are terrible. As for the syndicate of owners betting, your experience is very typical of the vast mindset.
Good ole Penn. Nat. Man, I hated that drive home late at night after running a horse. Even when I won.

[str]

Thats my point.... I look for horses with m/l of 10-1 to 30-1. When those odds go down suspiciously too much, that's when I bet. 2-1 isn't great, but you could use that horse in an exacta?

The payoff should be greater than a typical 2-1 shot would normally pay . Like , the exacta would typically be about 30.00 but it is paying 48.00. Something like that. You are simply getting a better value. If the odds come down very late, this scenario might present itself. But... don't over bet the race. Stay within the amounts you would normally play.

[str]

If something like this interests you, try and follow Gulfstream Park in South Florida when they return. I believe their next meet runs from early December to early April. The early money there is eerily smart. This isn't something I normally follow, but I always at least take a glance at the early money there. It's unreal how many times it's right.

To the original thread starter, absolutely great thread man and thanks for taking the time. I love every aspect of the game.

Gulfstream is a great place to try this. Horses come from all over the place too run against one another in the winter time. It is often difficult to compare one too another in terms of ability. Most trainers only ship live horses there. Getting stalls there is tough and you will , in most cases only send horses that you know can compete immediately, down there.
This is a very solid angle for Gulfstream Mike.

[str]

Very interesting info about that claiming business, str.

How important do you feel the jockey is? As important as the pitcher in baseball? Just to be sure, since I don't ride horses, is the jockey responsible for a clean trip, without bumping and with uninterrupted momentum, or can the horse pick those narrow open lanes as well? Reason I ask is the last Kentucky Derby, where Velazquez was threading the needle much in the same way as the famous Borel win on the same track with Street Sense a few years back. Borel stuck to the rail, but the threading the needle part was very similar. If that is mostly the jockey, could he (at times) be more important than the horse...? Or does the importance of finding those narrow alleys increase with larger fields, making the rider less of a factor in smaller races? (Would be great if the racebook had an 'action' or 'listed jockey' option as in baseball).

While I do not think the jockey as important as a pitcher in baseball, they are important. The jockey is solely responsible for a clean trip. They are the ones that will make the split second decisions during the race.
First off, the horse has to be willing to go in tight openings during the race. If you lined up 30 claimers for instance, probably 25 would, if asked by the rider. 2 might love doing it to the degree that they see an opening and accelerate towards the hole, and 3 will not have anything to do with going inside or splitting other horses. A trainer must know the horse and relay that info to the jock in the paddock before the race, if not earlier. I used to set the race up for the jock and go over it with him/her at least twice. Something like: Ride away, probably mid pack, speed on both sides, relax, settle and get comfortable, go when needed, inside or out. This gives the rider a chance to feel the race and the way it should shape up.Tells the jock that the horse will do whatever is needed. If the horse is quirky about the stick or loafs when they make the lead, they need to know that stuff.
The jocks that ride the derby are by far the best of the best. Because they all have complete control of there horses, they feel comfortable riding tight to one another. They trust the other guy. Riders at smaller tracks are not nearly as good and as a result they do not ride races within an inch of one another all the time.They do not have the degree of control that better riders do.
For instance, watch a race at Pimlico this week BEFORE the top riders get there. You will see horses turn for home and a sizable gap between them at least when they switch leads( lead legs) at the 3 /16s pole. As a great rider, if you stayed on the fence all the time, you would very rarely be blocked from coming through either up the rail or in the 2 path. Then watch the Belmont races and see the riders that get stuck down inside turning for home. Sometimes they don't ever get out or have to wait a 1/16 of a mile to get a hole, thus losing all there momentum.
Top notch jocks can not ride to there abilities if they feel that the riders around them are not in control at all times. For the most part, the only times lesser riders are very tight in the race, is when one of them is struggling with control of there mount.
Borel is famous for staying on the fence. That works quite often but if he rode at Belmont or Saratoga year round his strategy would have too change.
The larger the field, the tougher it is to navigate the race. Threading your way through the derby field is a solid indication that whoever did it, is a great rider.
I feel for the most part that if the quality of jockey is reasonably fair throughout the colony at each track,, the horse has to have the ability to win in most cases, in order to do so. The jockey certainly can help or hurt that, but you need the horse. If however, you take one of the best riders around and put them up against mediocre talent , he/she will completely dominate.
Like Pujols playing in AA ball. Probably bat about .500.
Good question. I hope that helped.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks so much, str. Very insightful.

Explains why these top riders make racing much more exciting to watch. Edge of your seat stuff. Back to a regular race from there seems like a totally different world.

I have to chew on this for a while. In top races, from what I've seen, it pays to look into the horse/jockey relationship. Maybe less so in more average racing.

[robmpink]

Thats my point.... I look for horses with m/l of 10-1 to 30-1. When those odds go down suspiciously too much, that's when I bet. 2-1 isn't great, but you could use that horse in an exacta?

Matt, I'm happy you had success w/ it. Take it from me, it won't work like a charm often over time.

[crazykind]

great info in this thread, tyvm

[sports28]

I agree CK

[JakeLc]

Looking at just under 45K races
horses that had a M/L of 10/1-30/1

when they went off at 1/9-7/5 they won at a rate of 41% for an ROI of $.88/$1.00
when they went off at 1.50-3.40 they won at a rate of 23% for an ROI of $.83/$1.00

there are factors I didn't filter out that would affect results such as races taken off the grass etc.

[mattd83]

Looking at just under 45K races
horses that had a M/L of 10/1-30/1

when they went off at 1/9-7/5 they won at a rate of 41% for an ROI of $.88/$1.00
when they went off at 1.50-3.40 they won at a rate of 23% for an ROI of $.83/$1.00

there are factors I didn't filter out that would affect results such as races taken off the grass etc.

Cool. What did you use to figure that out??

Wonder what the rate was to finish in the money? Not just win...


Very interesting stuff

[JakeLc]

using same criteria but filtering out races taken off the grass

1/9-7/5 38%w 56 %w+p 73%wps ROI .84 .91 .97
1.5-3.4 23% w 41% w+p 57% wps ROI .83 .87 .92

[Dark Horse]

str, how many type of standard instructions would a trainer give a jockey, based on the type of horse? Is it more than just the front runners, middle of the pack, and hang in the back stuff? As a trainer, how many type of horses did you classify in terms of the way they ran a race?

[rkelly110]

Love the stories str, straight from the horses mouth.

Penn is my home track also. I could go there and win money at ease, until they upped
the win amounts and brought in better quality horses. I can't win there anymore.

I use E-betUSA and wager other tracks. I've been liking Harness racing for easier wins.
In my 30 yrs at horse racing, I've learned my lesson at wagering. I will look at all tracks
with a few mtp, pick a top 3 fav with a good jockey and tier my bets for WPS on one horse.

If I win, I'm done. If I lose, I'm done. Lost too much money chasing. I was on an 80%
win rate for a while, until the derby's come up, then I lose a big chunk.

I like the horses compared to sports betting. To quote the game show, Minute to win it,
that's all it takes, instead of 3 hrs chewing on your finger nails.

[str]

str, how many type of standard instructions would a trainer give a jockey, based on the type of horse? Is it more than just the front runners, middle of the pack, and hang in the back stuff? As a trainer, how many type of horses did you classify in terms of the way they ran a race?

The simple answer is 3. But let me explain for a handicappers sake .
Keeping in mind that you normally have anywhere from :30 sec. to 2-3 minutes to say what you want to say,and I ALWAYS tried to say it twice, I would try to give an overview while talking about speed, position and closers.
Lets start from the back so I can focus on speed last. That is where players seem to struggle the most , I think.
If your horse is a closer , you let the jock know how MUCH speed seems to be in the race. You talk about pace and if your horse will go inside, split horses or prefers outside. I remind them not to lose to much ground if it's 2 turns, or more at Timonium or C.T..I would always remind the younger guys to switch sticks or start left handed( I talked about this in another thread so I have copied it . This is what I mean .
[Lastly,the jocks that hit there horses dozens of times are for the most part doing nothing to help the horse along.The stick is best used as the element of surprise.The better riders will hit a horse once or twice right handed and switch and repeat left handed.I would have no use for the jock that hit a horse 20 times with the same hand. It's like if I am behind you and I hit you on the left side of your shoulder , you are startled . Then too the right side and you are startled again. But if I hit the left side of your shoulder 20 times in a row, does hit 7-20 really do anything? At some point you create a mind set of a horse to resent it and possibly sulk from it creating a negative effect.
I used to have my riders use the stick backwards so to speak on first rides after I had claimed them. Because most all riders start with the stick in there right hand, I would have them start with it in the left hand ,then go right, as long as they had room to use it and the traffic he was dealing with warranted it .Just trying to have an edge. A dear friend of mine who left Md. after starting his riding career there and moved to Calif. that you know well I am sure, taught me that "the stick is best used as an element of surprise and anything more than that is a waste of time". I might not have figured that one out on my own . Boy was he right!]

That's about it. You hope the pace shows up so you can make a run. If a bias exists I tell them to stay wherever it is but used to be a struggle because a lot of jocks had no clue what I was talking about. I have to think that now that most people are aware of it, the jocks at least understand it some what.
If you are a position horse, I would identify the potential speed and others that want to do the same as you. I ALWAYS talked about trying to get a position with my right eye clear. (much more on that in a minute.) Then, go through the inside, split, outside stuff and remind them of the stick option.

If the horse was a speed horse then really no need to discuss closers very much. If that was the case , I would spend time identifying the other potential speed. I would say speed on both sides or , 2 speeds outside of you and give them #s or jocks names, or looks like you have the box. The box is a term that describes the controlling speed outside. If you are running in a one turn race, this is where you want to be in most cases.
Why ? Because if you are a speed horse what you prefer the least is other speed horses slightly in front of you early on or directly in your right eye. Most inside speed will quit prematurely if that is the case. I always wanted my horses to get to that right eye of the inside horse by the 3/8s pole( green pole in the far turn on a one mile track).
When a gambler is looking at a race and trying to lay out the speed, if there are 3 speeds , no bias, and all are fairly equal, and one turn, in most cases the middle horse will be the least best betting option, followed by the inside horse. The outside horse should be the most relaxed of the three and therefore have the most left in the tank when they turn for home. He/she has been the most comfortable to that point. In 2 turn races, that is not always the case. The loss of ground is difficult to overcome. If the run to the turn is fairly short the inside horse is probably going to find the lead by 3/4 of a length or more by saving the ground. In 2 turn races, with no speed bias, and 3 or more equal speeds, finding a closer is usually the way to go. That was supposed to happen in the derby but for whatever reason they went 48 and change . That took any chance of Dialed In winning away. He ran the last 1/2 mile in .47 . That would win a ton of races with a quicker first 1/2 but some people feel that he did not run well at all. That is not the case.
So what I am saying is, if you have a one turn race and 3 speeds, watch what happens when the inside horses right eyes get pressured. Not the outside horses nose at the inside riders boot but eye to eye. This is where WATCHING REPLAYS is SO IMPORTANT.That's why READING CHARTS is SO IMPORTANT. When you can see trips both good and bad take place at your home track, having that info will allow you to determine if the speed you are considering playing today, had the best of it or the worst of it last time.
A great play is when a speed has been in between or inside for there last 3 races and quit and controls things either solo or outside today. That is heaven as long as you know that indeed the horse has won if things are favorable. Some horses just quit but more often than not, with a solid trip, they will stay longer than the average handicapper thinks they will .
Now go find that scenario. They are out there. Be patient, and they will fall right in to your lap, usually at a decent price.
Hope that helps.

[Dark Horse]

Many thanks. That will take me a while to digest.

[AbeFroman]

A fantastic write up STR, thanks!

Lets talk about something other than the ponies for a second. How rough is the backside, is it as bad as portrayed? Also, how common is it to see blocking, that is when a trainer has two horses in the race he instructs the jockey to have one horse block so the other horse has a clearer trip.

[str]

Many thanks. That will take me a while to digest.

A quick follow up to that. Just as you will find speed that is coming from tough trips to an easier one, you can also identify the horses that won last time with the box and will not have that luxury this time. Because they won , they are most likely one of the favs. and many times they will lose when that tougher trip gets the best of them. Some will call this a " bounce". It is anything but that. It is simply what the horse was comfortable with vs. what it was uncomfortable with.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Love the stories str, straight from the horses mouth.

Penn is my home track also. I could go there and win money at ease, until they upped
the win amounts and brought in better quality horses. I can't win there anymore.

I use E-betUSA and wager other tracks. I've been liking Harness racing for easier wins.
In my 30 yrs at horse racing, I've learned my lesson at wagering. I will look at all tracks
with a few mtp, pick a top 3 fav with a good jockey and tier my bets for WPS on one horse.

If I win, I'm done. If I lose, I'm done. Lost too much money chasing. I was on an 80%
win rate for a while, until the derby's come up, then I lose a big chunk.

I like the horses compared to sports betting. To quote the game show, Minute to win it,
that's all it takes, instead of 3 hrs chewing on your finger nails.

Can't speak for harness but I do understand about better quality horses. Just do not let yourself think you CAN'T win at Penn. Sure you can. You might need to make some adjustments but you can do it.
I know that track well. Let me know if you ever have a question about it.