Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str

a fts won easy R4 @ gp and paid $26.80..everything pretty bad (being kind) with this one relative to pedigree and trainer
BUT ...tyler had the mount


do you think that in this situation the trainer approaches the agent or the agent got word from "sources" that this is a good one .. does he do anything to confirm that this horse has ability or just trust the trainer based on the fact he reached out to him ??

[Thunderground]

Glad to know that, str.

One of the great things of horse racing is that one can really zero in on the sweet spots.

The sections of my program that I enjoy working with the most are the pace section and the toss-out section. Toss-outs will show if the race has value or not. Basically the track comes in with a 20-30 percent advantage, so we have to overcome that by getting the totality of the field down from 120 or 130 to below 100 percent.
Toss-out is not about who ends up in front, but basically means to pick off horses from the back (including speeds that are wasted), and reduce the field to contenders only.
In this regard I have a simple question about JRIB horses, for lack of a better term. A JRIB horse is a horse masquerading as a closer, that Just Runs In (the) Back. It seems to me that these horses are just not interested in horse racing (anymore). They will be longshots, but every percentage point counts. So I wonder if I can read them as automatic toss-outs, or if there are cases where they can still return to sparkling form. I know that the horse won't win, but an automatic toss-out in this case means that, as a longshot, he won't run in the money either and stay out of exotic tickets.

I guess the underlying question is why such horses are still racing. Is that on the trainer, or the owner, or for other reasons: what is going on there? It bothers me a little that I don't know why a horse is in the race.

[str]

hey str

a fts won easy R4 @ gp and paid $26.80..everything pretty bad (being kind) with this one relative to pedigree and trainer
BUT ...tyler had the mount


do you think that in this situation the trainer approaches the agent or the agent got word from "sources" that this is a good one .. does he do anything to confirm that this horse has ability or just trust the trainer based on the fact he reached out to him ??

It will depend on the relationship between the agent and the trainer. The agents job is to get along with every trainer. That's what you see in general. The agents other job is to know what is going on in general.

This could have been luck, but I doubt it. I see a couple of very nice works out of the gate that very well could have told the story . Word travels when a baby outruns other runners for other trainers. When babies work out of the gate it is always in company and typically with other barns. It's luck or not as to who comes to the gate when you do. But they do not work babies by themselves as a rule. So my guess is, word got out that way. Or, when approached by the trainer, the agent did some homework with the clockers and understood the horse had potential. Heck, Tyler could have been working another horse that this one beat in the morning. We just don't know. But what we do know is when big name riders land on non descript firsters for non descript trainers it's rarely an accident.
Some times the agent will ride it because the trainer just reached out but they can get in trouble quickly with their rider if the horse is not at all what it was touted as being. Especially unruly or roughish where the rider could possibly get hurt.
All in all. that trainer could have just reached out but if he did, the agent checked it out at some point and discussed it with the rider. One of these is usually the scenario.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

It will depend on the relationship between the agent and the trainer. The agents job is to get along with every trainer. That's what you see in general. The agents other job is to know what is going on in general.

This could have been luck, but I doubt it. I see a couple of very nice works out of the gate that very well could have told the story . Word travels when a baby outruns other runners for other trainers. When babies work out of the gate it is always in company and typically with other barns. It's luck or not as to who comes to the gate when you do. But they do not work babies by themselves as a rule. So my guess is, word got out that way. Or, when approached by the trainer, the agent did some homework with the clockers and understood the horse had potential. Heck, Tyler could have been working another horse that this one beat in the morning. We just don't know. But what we do know is when big name riders land on non descript firsters for non descript trainers it's rarely an accident.
Some times the agent will ride it because the trainer just reached out but they can get in trouble quickly with their rider if the horse is not at all what it was touted as being. Especially unruly or roughish where the rider could possibly get hurt.
All in all. that trainer could have just reached out but if he did, the agent checked it out at some point and discussed it with the rider. One of these is usually the scenario.
Hope that helps.

as you said and as we've discussed the main thing is the big time jock riding this type of horse..the mechanics and how it possibly happens is interesting and getting info from the clockers (if that's the case) certainly makes sense..the two gate works ,as you said ,were very nice..saez actually rode him ..not sure why tyler was off but that certainly is a parallel move


wish I was paying more attention as I feel besides the works the other info was bad..I'll never play based on impressive or above avg works as a front line reason


appreciate the feedback str

[str]

Glad to know that, str.

One of the great things of horse racing is that one can really zero in on the sweet spots.

The sections of my program that I enjoy working with the most are the pace section and the toss-out section. Toss-outs will show if the race has value or not. Basically the track comes in with a 20-30 percent advantage, so we have to overcome that by getting the totality of the field down from 120 or 130 to below 100 percent.
Toss-out is not about who ends up in front, but basically means to pick off horses from the back (including speeds that are wasted), and reduce the field to contenders only.
In this regard I have a simple question about JRIB horses, for lack of a better term. A JRIB horse is a horse masquerading as a closer, that Just Runs In (the) Back. It seems to me that these horses are just not interested in horse racing (anymore). They will be longshots, but every percentage point counts. So I wonder if I can read them as automatic toss-outs, or if there are cases where they can still return to sparkling form. I know that the horse won't win, but an automatic toss-out in this case means that, as a longshot, he won't run in the money either and stay out of exotic tickets.

I guess the underlying question is why such horses are still racing. Is that on the trainer, or the owner, or for other reasons: what is going on there? It bothers me a little that I don't know why a horse is in the race.

A. Sometimes the horse just has no interest. But they are bred to compete. I was taught early on that "winning races is a matter of placement". John Tammaro Sr. said that to a few of us in a tack room when we were all grooms or exercise boys in my very early years. And like just about everything else he said, he was so right.
In other words, run them where they can win, and they will. Now it's not that simple with closers because pace is out of their control but that's about it.
Trainers that have no problem running horses that are constantly longshots and never get class relief are to blame. Maybe it's the owner but it's not the horse more often than not. You have to make sure that pace did not compromise previous efforts but outside of that, for a horse to constantly run poorly and not get class relief cannot be the horses fault.
I have previously talked about lesser name riders that have an abnormal amount of 3rds as compared to wins. These jock are trying really hard, and probably riding well, to get mounts that are longshots to finish in the money. Every track has them. You just need to identify them. Toss that rider in underneath and it should help.

I cannot answer why they are still racing but I was also told early on and it is very true that there is a spot for every horse to win somewhere. I had the luxury of having Charles Town and Penn. Nat. close enough by that I could run otherwise slow horses and could win. And most of them did. Every now and then the horse had just given up mentally but not very often. And after a win, they quickly became confident and wanted to win again in most cases. But the down side of that was they would often aggravate an old problem by trying and competing. I don't mean break down but more like become muscle sore or have an old joint problem flair and need daily whirlpools or whatever to help them. That's the price they and we pay when you try to compete instead of going through the motions.
Getting slow horses to improve was my bread and butter in the claiming game. That's what I was taught. If you dug out my old winners you would see a bunch of 7 year olds that had lifetime earning years. The object was to make them happy and let them compete. The horse in my avatar Kindest Cut was a slow , never hit the board, run at a different track almost every race horse with bad riders and a bad trainer. I claimed him for 6k or 8k I think. I had to drop him to 5k beaten to get him running and stretched him out from 6F to 1 1/16th or 1 1/8th so he would be on or near the lead. That turned him around and he won 8 in a row. The horse did everything. All I did was get him healthy and happy. I never worked him, he hated that. I jogged him the wrong way around the track two miles most days. We found that he loved that!
Had another horse that couldn't hit the board that an owner gave me named Dancing Bullet. He was unhappy. We found what he liked, which was DC 101 the Greaseman, if you've ever heard of him, and hung a radio turned way up on his stall door. We found that by pure luck as the groom was a young stoner but was a hard worker. (It was the 70's). The horse loved it. He bobbed his head all morning to rock music. He would not touch hay before we did that. Afterwards, he would listen and eat a rack of hay every morning. I trained him lightly, didn't work him much and he jumped up and won. I will say that he got a rail trip on a crazy rail day but he won and that turned him into a different horse. The key was to not raise them way up after a win but allow them to run against a similar bunch and improve mentally which winning does. I think I lost him after several wins but he turned it around big time. Something we did or maybe all of it combined just flipped a switch and he was no longer that plodder who just stayed in the back.
So, it can happen, but it's not as easy as I made it sound. It doesn't always work, but often enough it does. You just have to give them a chance. And that means, as a trainer, you are there to win, not be happy with an occasional 3rd. Most of that falls on the trainer but sometimes it can be the owner, especially with homebreds.
Hope that makes sense.

[Thunderground]

lol. The rock music anecdote is classic. Thanks for the insight. It put me right there, at the scene. Food for thought, and I will let it sink in. Figuring out what a horse likes nowadays falls under 'animal communication'. (I have fun with that at a recreational level. One winter I had some bread for some seagulls, who were sitting on a railing. I threw a first piece and a couple jumped down on the ground, but then the thought arrived: 'why don't you toss up in the air?' By now I knew that this was not my thought so I did. Sure enough I soon had a whole cloud of seagulls flying around my head. They did not drop a single piece of bread. And I got a closeup view of how did they did it. They were super quick and agile in the air and maneuverable with their heads. I felt like they were giving me this gift of being in their world. I went back some time later, expecting to do it again. But this time they did not send me the thought. Same kind of birds, same bread. Every piece fell to the ground. I reflected on it later, and realized it was their decision to extend the trust; not mine.).

This thread contains so many golden stories. It would be real sad to lose them if this forum would ever go down. There is enough here for a book, with some editing. Cheers to Kindest Cut!

[JBEX]

hey str


your favorite childhood slugger (well might not be #1 lol) going today in fairgrounds R5

think it's very odd they are cutting him back to a sprint off the way he's ran..trainer's tearing it up ..what do you think ?

[JBEX]

hey str


your favorite childhood slugger (well might not be #1 lol) going today in fairgrounds R5

think it's very odd they are cutting him back to a sprint off the way he's ran..trainer's tearing it up ..what do you think ?

not a bad effort first time in a short sprint and it was off the turf.. 5.5f a lot to ask if all your prior attempts were going long

[JBEX]

another thing I just noticed is he's a minnesota homebred .. hardly any from there bred that well and he never made a start at canterbury

[str]

hey str


your favorite childhood slugger (well might not be #1 lol) going today in fairgrounds R5

think it's very odd they are cutting him back to a sprint off the way he's ran..trainer's tearing it up ..what do you think ?

Sorry I missed this one. Better late than never I guess.

The horse ran a nice race for that short a distance. Looks to be a useful horse . I saw he was all washed out 2 back. Wonder if that was the case this time?

[str]

not a bad effort first time in a short sprint and it was off the turf.. 5.5f a lot to ask if all your prior attempts were going long

Agreed. Finished full of run.

And yeah, A Minn. Bred. Don't see those too often. Guess that's why the slugger reference for a former twin.

[JBEX]

Agreed. Finished full of run.

And yeah, A Minn. Bred. Don't see those too often. Guess that's why the slugger reference for a former twin.

I should've put that together with the name and bred in minn but honestly I didn't..fitting he has ky bloodlines..an extra half furlong might have made the difference

[Thunderground]

str, for a pace picture, would you consider a horse that runs in a rating speed position, but never wins and tends to fall back from there, as a rating speed or as a stalker? The horse can still put some pressure on the front runner(s), but not much direct pressure (imo).

[Thunderground]

str, for a pace picture, would you consider a horse that runs in a rating speed position, but never wins and tends to fall back from there, as a rating speed or as a stalker? The horse doesn't challenge for the lead, but is not far back enough to be a stalker either. I'm just trying to determine the label for the horse, for the overall pace picture of a race.

These horses probably have no value until a class drop, but this is about their influence on the pace. I suppose the situation is similar to my earlier question. Horses that run in a position, but are not strong enough to strike from that position. My inclination is to rank them as stalkers, even if they are somewhat more forwardly placed.

[str]

str, for a pace picture, would you consider a horse that runs in a rating speed position, but never wins and tends to fall back from there, as a rating speed or as a stalker? The horse can still put some pressure on the front runner(s), but not much direct pressure (imo).

str, for a pace picture, would you consider a horse that runs in a rating speed position, but never wins and tends to fall back from there, as a rating speed or as a stalker? The horse doesn't challenge for the lead, but is not far back enough to be a stalker either. I'm just trying to determine the label for the horse, for the overall pace picture of a race.

These horses probably have no value until a class drop, but this is about their influence on the pace. I suppose the situation is similar to my earlier question. Horses that run in a position, but are not strong enough to strike from that position. My inclination is to rank them as stalkers, even if they are somewhat more forwardly placed.

Sounds to me as though calling the horse a stalker would fit a horse that can stalk and make up ground. I think that because the horse never makes up any ground, he must be called a speed type. Also, somewhere along the way, you would assume the horse should draw a race lacking any real speed and then be THE speed.
Also sounds like a waste of a lot of time and effort to constantly run a horse like that wherever they do. Horse needs to stretch out if it's a sprinter or cut back if it's a router. I mean. jeez, do something to try and win, right?
Just my opinion but you are supposed to play to win, aren't you?

[Thunderground]

Maybe I need to read the forms a little more. Got it down to where I only cared about running type, tied to form-of-day.

I figured that stretching out, cutting back, and dropping down are already build into the odds. Aside from form of day, the odds are going to be accurate, so others have already handicapped expected competitiveness in the race for me. So I attach the odds to the running style, and also assign a pace figure (linked to running style; e.g. a breather-number for speeds, a stretch run numbers for all but especially for closers). A speed with a bad stretch run figure is usually out. The lowest number in each layer (speeds, stalkers, closers) is usually tossed out. In this way I reduce the field to contenders.

Thinking it over in this way, am I missing something crucial by letting the totality of handicappers determine competitiveness for me? For this line of questioning I only want to know how the horse affects and is affected by the pace. And boiling it down further, for that I only need to know where in the field he runs (very annoying when wrong, but that's another story). I don't want to be lazy, but the less time I spend reading a racing form, the better.


What is the key info that you take from a racing form?

[JBEX]

hey str


was thinking of playing a well bred bill mott runner 2nd off the layoff (maybe more importantly 3rd career start) in R3 at aqu today. changed my mind when I saw how horrendous he is over a fairly large sample with 1st time blinkers..started thinking that maybe this isn't by chance and with the types of horses he gets needing blinkers is a bad sign .. any opinion on this ?

[str]

hey str


was thinking of playing a well bred bill mott runner 2nd off the layoff (maybe more importantly 3rd career start) in R3 at aqu today. changed my mind when I saw how horrendous he is over a fairly large sample with 1st time blinkers..started thinking that maybe this isn't by chance and with the types of horses he gets needing blinkers is a bad sign .. any opinion on this ?

This ones time sensitive so I will do this one first.
My guess is it is his go to move when a horse has not run well. Sometimes blinkers are needed but overall not as much with classically bred horses vs. cheapies. So maybe his numbers are down because a certain % of those that get blks. first time, can't win with a head start up there. So that would make sense.
If you wanted to play the horse you could lean on the 18% 1st Lasix instead of the blks. on %. Lol. I know, I'm just being a wise ass today.

I looked first and thought you would be asking about Michelle's horse. That one caught my eye in trying to beat the big favorite.
Let's see what happens but can't blame you for bailing with that low % of Mott's with blks. But like I said, let's hope the high % with Lasix doesn't overrule the case.

[JBEX]

This ones time sensitive so I will do this one first.
My guess is it is his go to move when a horse has not run well. Sometimes blinkers are needed but overall not as much with classically bred horses vs. cheapies. So maybe his numbers are down because a certain % of those that get blks. first time, can't win with a head start up there. So that would make sense.
If you wanted to play the horse you could lean on the 18% 1st Lasix instead of the blks. on %. Lol. I know, I'm just being a wise ass today.

I looked first and thought you would be asking about Michelle's horse. That one caught my eye in trying to beat the big favorite.
Let's see what happens but can't blame you for bailing with that low % of Mott's with blks. But like I said, let's hope the high % with Lasix doesn't overrule the case.

could see that coming lol..sitting off the flank of a 69-1 ..50 change ,1:17⁴..no one going to get her going that slow (understatement but that track has to be real slow today)..you 2nd and mine 3rd for a $146 triple for $1



I think your explanation for the blinkers stat makes sense and going to keep that in mind with his horses from now on

[str]

Maybe I need to read the forms a little more. Got it down to where I only cared about running type, tied to form-of-day.

I figured that stretching out, cutting back, and dropping down are already build into the odds. Aside from form of day, the odds are going to be accurate, so others have already handicapped expected competitiveness in the race for me. So I attach the odds to the running style, and also assign a pace figure (linked to running style; e.g. a breather-number for speeds, a stretch run numbers for all but especially for closers). A speed with a bad stretch run figure is usually out. The lowest number in each layer (speeds, stalkers, closers) is usually tossed out. In this way I reduce the field to contenders.

Thinking it over in this way, am I missing something crucial by letting the totality of handicappers determine competitiveness for me? For this line of questioning I only want to know how the horse affects and is affected by the pace. And boiling it down further, for that I only need to know where in the field he runs (very annoying when wrong, but that's another story). I don't want to be lazy, but the less time I spend reading a racing form, the better.


What is the key info that you take from a racing form?

Q. I figured that stretching out, cutting back, and dropping down are already build into the odds.


A. Dropping down probably is built into the odds for the most part. But it DOES matter WHO is doing the dropping down right? But I would never let the "public" decide for me the importance of a stretch out or turn back. I'm not trying to sound like I am above some handicappers but if I don't have a better inkling as to if a stretch out or turn back will help a certain horse than the average player , then shame on me. And again, it does matter WHO is doing the stretching out and turning back right? Some trainers are masterful in this while others are dreadful. Then, there are a large % of trainers that land in the middle on this.

I have always felt that the public has no idea of how significant either one might be. I mean, of course some people do, but joe public? No way. I would ALWAYS monitor those types myself.

I also do not think the odds are always accurate. In some cases, not by a longshot. The lesser the venue, the more strongly I feel about that.

Q. Thinking it over in this way, am I missing something crucial by letting the totality of handicappers determine competitiveness for me?

A. I would have to say yes.

Q. What is the key info that you take from a racing form?

More than one thing but lets start with this one.

A. In a field of ten horses, it probably takes about 10 minutes to lay out speed, stalk, close. One thing I have learned to do is to read the form for this from post 1 to 10. Then, read it again from post 10 to 1. A pro showed me that a long time ago and it makes sense. All you have to do is mark to the side of each horse sp., st., cl. or 1,2,3, whatever you want for early position. But if you read it through and go in the same order, your subconscious mindset is to always agree with what you first found. The whole point of the exercise is to make sure you get it right, not get it right the 1st time. Otherwise, what's the point of doing it twice. Your subconscious will almost always agree with yourself.

I suggest you go down from 1-10, then back from 10-1 and THEN assign as you go back down a 3rd time from 1-10, a speed, stalk, close assignment. You will see that it becomes more accurate and gives you more to watch for when the gates open.

If you try this, you will be surprised how different the race looks. And, it will allow you to then, upon completion, envision the break and the run to the first turn and see the race unfold in your minds eye early. Horses dropping over, getting hung wide, etc. It offers a view of the race in your mind before the race runs. You will be surprised how often it is correct and when it is not, it will allow you to adjust in time to be more accurate. You will notice certain riders always do the same thing from the inside with speed, or the outside when hung out, etc., etc..
All this allows you to start to see the race and the form from an angle that few see it from. In my mind, that is an edge. And in this game, an edge, is what is needed to become a successful investor.

Try it and you will be pleasantly surprised with the results I think.

[Thunderground]

A. In a field of ten horses, it probably takes about 10 minutes to lay out speed, stalk, close. One thing I have learned to do is to read the form for this from post 1 to 10. Then, read it again from post 10 to 1. A pro showed me that a long time ago and it makes sense. All you have to do is mark to the side of each horse sp., st., cl. or 1,2,3, whatever you want for early position. But if you read it through and go in the same order, your subconscious mindset is to always agree with what you first found. The whole point of the exercise is to make sure you get it right, not get it right the 1st time. Otherwise, what's the point of doing it twice. Your subconscious will almost always agree with yourself.

I suggest you go down from 1-10, then back from 10-1 and THEN assign as you go back down a 3rd time from 1-10, a speed, stalk, close assignment. You will see that it becomes more accurate and gives you more to watch for when the gates open.

If you try this, you will be surprised how different the race looks. And, it will allow you to then, upon completion, envision the break and the run to the first turn and see the race unfold in your minds eye early. Horses dropping over, getting hung wide, etc. It offers a view of the race in your mind before the race runs. You will be surprised how often it is correct and when it is not, it will allow you to adjust in time to be more accurate. You will notice certain riders always do the same thing from the inside with speed, or the outside when hung out, etc., etc..
All this allows you to start to see the race and the form from an angle that few see it from. In my mind, that is an edge. And in this game, an edge, is what is needed to become a successful investor.

Try it and you will be pleasantly surprised with the results I think.

I'm glad that this concept, of visualizing the race from all angles, is part of the program that your insights allowed me to write. It contains and combines a lot of information, but not all information. In order to keep it streamlined and integrated there had to be certain cut-off points.

Your answer really made me think about what the program represents. Undoubtedly, there are many who can read the racing form much better than I could. I give them their victory and thank them for sharpening the lines. I'm not going to try to beat them by chewing over the same data (sooner or later that competition is won by the computer). It would be possible to collect all data on trainers and let a computer shift through every strong tendency, but that sounds like a boring project to me. It lacks the sense of exploring ideas.

So my conclusion is that the program is its own type of racing form. Handicapping is still required, but it is done on a form-of-day foundation, where racing forms represent the past. I e-mailed you a link to a race analysis that illustrates this. You mentioned so many things that instantly rang a bell with me. But some things I just couldn't integrate. The question was not about considering something, but about ability to integrate, as parts of a whole. So is the program complete? No. Is it finished? Yes. How can I tell? I'm happy with it.

[JBEX]

hey str

parx R3 #1 martini's amica (4-1)




#6 misty mauve (8-5) will probably be 2-5 and whip this field but thought mine was a little interesting at a price.. probably be at least double those odds if fav gets bet like that and with what she did in her last 2 attempts.. kind of surprised they didn't make #4 the clear 2nd choice

mine

a couple of rail breaks at saratoga to start things off.. both venue and post are tough spots especially when you're just starting out

got the 11 post off a nearly 2 month layoff at parx in start 3.. manages 5th in a 12 horse field so not horrible

back in 22 days, finally draws a good post and puts in a decent effort at aqueduct at 76-1..understand its the turf but still have to give some credit here

lots of trouble next out and does nothing..then catches a sloppy track at parx and nothing also.. acknowledge I might be a little too forgiving with off tracks

gets the rail but a much more experienced horse.. track will more than likely be fast or at least good today

negatives


a graham motion who runs well in debut probably more likely to improve or maintain 2nd out

my trainer has terrible numbers (factoring roi) in applicable categories would have liked trainer to be at least neutral considering who she's got to beat today


opinion?

[JBEX]

hey str

parx R3 #1 martini's amica (4-1)




#6 misty mauve (8-5) will probably be 2-5 and whip this field but thought mine was a little interesting at a price.. probably be at least double those odds if fav gets bet like that and with what she did in her last 2 attempts.. kind of surprised they didn't make #4 the clear 2nd choice

mine

a couple of rail breaks at saratoga to start things off.. both venue and post are tough spots especially when you're just starting out

got the 11 post off a nearly 2 month layoff at parx in start 3.. manages 5th in a 12 horse field so not horrible

back in 22 days, finally draws a good post and puts in a decent effort at aqueduct at 76-1..understand its the turf but still have to give some credit here

lots of trouble next out and does nothing..then catches a sloppy track at parx and nothing also.. acknowledge I might be a little too forgiving with off tracks

gets the rail but a much more experienced horse.. track will more than likely be fast or at least good today

negatives


a graham motion who runs well in debut probably more likely to improve or maintain 2nd out

my trainer has terrible numbers (factoring roi) in applicable categories would have liked trainer to be at least neutral considering who she's got to beat today


opinion?

one other thing I liked was there was a nice multiple for the stud fee.. on the bottomside just avg imo so that wouldn't account for it

[str]

hey str

parx R3 #1 martini's amica (4-1)




#6 misty mauve (8-5) will probably be 2-5 and whip this field but thought mine was a little interesting at a price.. probably be at least double those odds if fav gets bet like that and with what she did in her last 2 attempts.. kind of surprised they didn't make #4 the clear 2nd choice

mine

a couple of rail breaks at saratoga to start things off.. both venue and post are tough spots especially when you're just starting out

got the 11 post off a nearly 2 month layoff at parx in start 3.. manages 5th in a 12 horse field so not horrible

back in 22 days, finally draws a good post and puts in a decent effort at aqueduct at 76-1..understand its the turf but still have to give some credit here

lots of trouble next out and does nothing..then catches a sloppy track at parx and nothing also.. acknowledge I might be a little too forgiving with off tracks

gets the rail but a much more experienced horse.. track will more than likely be fast or at least good today

negatives


a graham motion who runs well in debut probably more likely to improve or maintain 2nd out

my trainer has terrible numbers (factoring roi) in applicable categories would have liked trainer to be at least neutral considering who she's got to beat today


opinion?

Gotta start off by ribbing you with your excuses. Lolol. You sound just like a trainer .haha.
I do see those excuses and can buy in on them. They tell a story for the horse to run well Today possibly . And that’s what it’s all about with reading between the lines.

I agree with the premise of the rail breaks first two outs but don’t like that the horse went to the back and beat one both times . That probably speaks to the horses ability as well as the poor posts.
But that’s ok because we are at Parx today, not Saratoga.
The other explanations are reasonable enough to go with as well. Sure, Graham’s looks like a piece of cake but nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite IMO. Might be a place to bet to win and save with a straight exacta with Graham on top of you. Depends on the value if there is any at all. Kind of surprised they have not tried two turns yet. Those races might be tough to fill still , I just don’t know.
So I would give a tentative “go for it” depending on price. Would have liked to see just a bit more from this one at any point but again, the price matters here.
Good luck if you play !

[str]

one other thing I liked was there was a nice multiple for the stud fee.. on the bottomside just avg imo so that wouldn't account for it

Probably a nice looking individual to get that price. The pieces were there to take a shot on I guess, it just hasn’t worked out as of yet.

[JBEX]

Gotta start off by ribbing you with your excuses. Lolol. You sound just like a trainer .haha.
I do see those excuses and can buy in on them. They tell a story for the horse to run well Today possibly . And that’s what it’s all about with reading between the lines.

I agree with the premise of the rail breaks first two outs but don’t like that the horse went to the back and beat one both times . That probably speaks to the horses ability as well as the poor posts.
But that’s ok because we are at Parx today, not Saratoga.
The other explanations are reasonable enough to go with as well. Sure, Graham’s looks like a piece of cake but nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite IMO. Might be a place to bet to win and save with a straight exacta with Graham on top of you. Depends on the value if there is any at all. Kind of surprised they have not tried two turns yet. Those races might be tough to fill still , I just don’t know.
So I would give a tentative “go for it” depending on price. Would have liked to see just a bit more from this one at any point but again, the price matters here.
Good luck if you play !

thanks str

yeah at least I'm acknowledging it lol but seriously I try to be mindful of it..few lengths off for about 3 furlongs ,gave it up and graham's won easy at 1-5..no real excuses

[str]

thanks str

yeah at least I'm acknowledging it lol but seriously I try to be mindful of it..few lengths off for about 3 furlongs ,gave it up and graham's won easy at 1-5..no real excuses

Yeah, the only way you will ever find a longshot is to make excuses so just kidding for sure. I like the way you see things.

Saw the chart. They really need to stretch this one out to two turns and drop her down. This time of year, 3 year old fillies going long are all the same. Slow! Now is the time to do it unless she has a breathing restriction or something I can't see. Certainly no reason to continue at MSW unless she is a 1/2 to a monster I don't know about. If that's the case, MSW at Charlestown and she is 1-5, wins and that's that IMO.

[JBEX]

Yeah, the only way you will ever find a longshot is to make excuses so just kidding for sure. I like the way you see things.

Saw the chart. They really need to stretch this one out to two turns and drop her down. This time of year, 3 year old fillies going long are all the same. Slow! Now is the time to do it unless she has a breathing restriction or something I can't see. Certainly no reason to continue at MSW unless she is a 1/2 to a monster I don't know about. If that's the case, MSW at Charlestown and she is 1-5, wins and that's that IMO.

she was last before the quarter pole after being relatively close early but still came back to pass two horses..is that why you see the stretchout working for her at a lower level ??

[str]

she was last before the quarter pole after being relatively close early but still came back to pass two horses..is that why you see the stretchout working for her at a lower level ??

On paper she just looks like a one gated horse. Meaning, she plods along at about the same clip. Why not allow her to be closer up early when they cut 24-25 the first 1/4 mile and see what happens. They will almost assuredly go 50 for the 1/2 mile and 3/4's in 1:15 +/- which puts her at least in contention or in the bit for the rider. They will come home real slow and if she runs evenly she will be gaining through the lane. That's what I see in her form.
Her sire ran 2nd in a grade 3 going 1 1/8th and out of a Curlin mare so why not ? I see no downside at this point with a chance of a solid upside. Nothing to lose I don't think. Sprinting is not getting anything done except discouragement so why not try 2 turns.
Just me training from the sidelines again. Lol.

[JBEX]

On paper she just looks like a one gated horse. Meaning, she plods along at about the same clip. Why not allow her to be closer up early when they cut 24-25 the first 1/4 mile and see what happens. They will almost assuredly go 50 for the 1/2 mile and 3/4's in 1:15 +/- which puts her at least in contention or in the bit for the rider. They will come home real slow and if she runs evenly she will be gaining through the lane. That's what I see in her form.
Her sire ran 2nd in a grade 3 going 1 1/8th and out of a Curlin mare so why not ? I see no downside at this point with a chance of a solid upside. Nothing to lose I don't think. Sprinting is not getting anything done except discouragement so why not try 2 turns.
Just me training from the sidelines again. Lol.

hey why not ..if they decide to go route she'll probably be a good price even with the drop..msw at charlestown or penn and if it's parx would be a maiden claimer..maybe at charlestown they'd consider 7f as it's two turns


as you said the pedigree points towards going long..be fun to keep tabs but still struggle with notifications lol

[JBEX]

hey str


aqu R4 #1 central pride (5-1)

like your opinion on this one..I'm always mentioning expensive for the pedigree and would like to see if you agree with me here

understand the stud fee they paid was $25k but he is now $10k and almost certain he was last year also..there's a place you can check that but I've lost where it is lol..going to assume last year was $10k..if that's the case and with almost nothing showing on the dam side as a runner or producer would you agree that's a lot of money for this one ? percentage wise trainer below avg but his roi is huge with debuters including msw's..could be a single big winner but more than likely a few of them


others

#2 hot rod rumble(9-5)

asmussen's first time gelding.. logical and likely will be lower and overbet


#4 saratoga sky (12-1)

bring up this one as it's a homebred debuter with a real nice pedigree but unlikely with that trainer


#5 juggler (4-1)

obvious contender off what he's done ..trainer lights out at this meet and killing it with jose ortiz

#6 moped dennis (6-1)

debuter and trainer so good with them have to give a shot


#7 clash a j (6-1)

just missed in his last race but that was @ 7f and he was closing..today is 6f..trainer is bad

side note on him that has nothing to do with his chances here..I know I'm on an island with this lol but I still believe it's relevant..broke from rail in a 12 horse field 3 back..the race on figures was about 4-5 lengths faster than par and he ran evenly mid/back of pack..caught a sloppy track (I'll excuse) 2 back and in his last race he lost by a head @ 63-1and was flying at the end ..only 23 days elapsed from 3 back to his last race. exiting that fast race running in the manner he did I feel contributed to that good effort last out..feel free to critique str lol but the main thing here is your opinion on this race

[str]

hey str


aqu R4 #1 central pride (5-1)

like your opinion on this one..I'm always mentioning expensive for the pedigree and would like to see if you agree with me here

understand the stud fee they paid was $25k but he is now $10k and almost certain he was last year also..there's a place you can check that but I've lost where it is lol..going to assume last year was $10k..if that's the case and with almost nothing showing on the dam side as a runner or producer would you agree that's a lot of money for this one ? percentage wise trainer below avg but his roi is huge with debuters including msw's..could be a single big winner but more than likely a few of them


others

#2 hot rod rumble(9-5)

asmussen's first time gelding.. logical and likely will be lower and overbet


#4 saratoga sky (12-1)

bring up this one as it's a homebred debuter with a real nice pedigree but unlikely with that trainer


#5 juggler (4-1)

obvious contender off what he's done ..trainer lights out at this meet and killing it with jose ortiz

#6 moped dennis (6-1)

debuter and trainer so good with them have to give a shot


#7 clash a j (6-1)

just missed in his last race but that was @ 7f and he was closing..today is 6f..trainer is bad

side note on him that has nothing to do with his chances here..I know I'm on an island with this lol but I still believe it's relevant..broke from rail in a 12 horse field 3 back..the race on figures was about 4-5 lengths faster than par and he ran evenly mid/back of pack..caught a sloppy track (I'll excuse) 2 back and in his last race he lost by a head @ 63-1and was flying at the end ..only 23 days elapsed from 3 back to his last race. exiting that fast race running in the manner he did I feel contributed to that good effort last out..feel free to critique str lol but the main thing here is your opinion on this race

Let's go right down the line :

1. Yes, at first glance I might agree it is a lot of money for the pedigree. But... He was bought out of the 2 year old June summer sale. I don't think you can equate 2 yr. old sales with , for instance, the Fasig Tipton Sept. yearling sale or any other yearling sale for that matter. So you have to grade that price on a curve of some sort. Exactly how much curve, I'm not sure these days but it probably as a rule of thumb would have been something like 40-50k for a yearling and 100-110k for a summer 2 year old when I was doing that. Also, in June of last year, they must have known that the stud fee was reduced so I think the cost was all about the workout , the way the horse moves, and the way the horse is put together.

I see the horse worked a 1/2 out of the gate the same day the 2 horse did. Were they paired up? No clue. That is kind of a random get lucky or not thing as we have discussed. The 2 horse was 3 lengths faster but... it's all about HOW they do it not necessarily how fast they did it right? So not a knock, just an observation.
The horse was at Saratoga this summer working well. Looks like they had to stop on him there. Probably shins. That's more times than not the deal. So, probably well meant 1st out and yes, the trainer has nice numbers and ROI's. So, I can see a possible play.

2. Nothing like gelding a horse you paid 325k for off a couple of 2nds. Lol. Must be nice. But... it leads me to believe the riders and trainer felt he was much better than the latest results. This one should be real tough to beat and over bet.

4. Hard to play into 0-13 and 2-33 without knowing more than the form is showing us.

5. He will be tough. Hot trainer and rider and 1st lasix. Is this the trainer that is ruled off in some places like maybe Md. ?

6. Solid outfit. I agree.

7. In the winter, I always try and know if the track was favoring the outside that day. Added cushion means more room for error and much more movement with all night grading on frozen days/nights. I don't follow that anymore but it could tell a lot if the replays/charts told a story.
Looks like the off track has helped this horse. 1st lasix and a backyard bred horse that the trainer owns and he refuses to run him for a tag off those bad races. Kind of weird but understanding who that trainer is would answer a lot. But I have no clue.
So I think you have to consider the horse no doubt unless you have more info on him.

The race is solid with the 3 favorites in here.
All in all, I concur with pretty much all you said. Do look at that cost difference for yearlings and babies if you don't already. It definitely exists.
GL if you play !
All the best JBEX.

[JBEX]

Let's go right down the line :

1. Yes, at first glance I might agree it is a lot of money for the pedigree. But... He was bought out of the 2 year old June summer sale. I don't think you can equate 2 yr. old sales with , for instance, the Fasig Tipton Sept. yearling sale or any other yearling sale for that matter. So you have to grade that price on a curve of some sort. Exactly how much curve, I'm not sure these days but it probably as a rule of thumb would have been something like 40-50k for a yearling and 100-110k for a summer 2 year old when I was doing that. Also, in June of last year, they must have known that the stud fee was reduced so I think the cost was all about the workout , the way the horse moves, and the way the horse is put together.

I see the horse worked a 1/2 out of the gate the same day the 2 horse did. Were they paired up? No clue. That is kind of a random get lucky or not thing as we have discussed. The 2 horse was 3 lengths faster but... it's all about HOW they do it not necessarily how fast they did it right? So not a knock, just an observation.
The horse was at Saratoga this summer working well. Looks like they had to stop on him there. Probably shins. That's more times than not the deal. So, probably well meant 1st out and yes, the trainer has nice numbers and ROI's. So, I can see a possible play.

2. Nothing like gelding a horse you paid 325k for off a couple of 2nds. Lol. Must be nice. But... it leads me to believe the riders and trainer felt he was much better than the latest results. This one should be real tough to beat and over bet.

4. Hard to play into 0-13 and 2-33 without knowing more than the form is showing us.

5. He will be tough. Hot trainer and rider and 1st lasix. Is this the trainer that is ruled off in some places like maybe Md. ?

6. Solid outfit. I agree.

7. In the winter, I always try and know if the track was favoring the outside that day. Added cushion means more room for error and much more movement with all night grading on frozen days/nights. I don't follow that anymore but it could tell a lot if the replays/charts told a story.
Looks like the off track has helped this horse. 1st lasix and a backyard bred horse that the trainer owns and he refuses to run him for a tag off those bad races. Kind of weird but understanding who that trainer is would answer a lot. But I have no clue.
So I think you have to consider the horse no doubt unless you have more info on him.

The race is solid with the 3 favorites in here.
All in all, I concur with pretty much all you said. Do look at that cost difference for yearlings and babies if you don't already. It definitely exists.
GL if you play !
All the best JBEX.

I think that's a great distinction to make about the difference of paying that for a yearling vs a 2yo..the former means a lot more so can understand the curve in evaluating based on that..actually a good thing to keep in mind going forward as I haven't weight that very heavily


yeah a gelding before his 10th start not what you're hoping for when you shell out that much cash..as we both feel..most likely but underlay



that trainer has been in a ton of trouble over the last half a dozen years including bans at most or all of the mid atlantic tracks..not sure of his status now


ok see what happens..thanks str

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: I know you have touched on track bias in this thread especially at the Maryland tracks. But as a general rule are track bias more prevalent in the winter months at Northern tracks? I just read an article that the BIG A was showing a strong rail bias lately. thx.

[str]

Hey STR: I know you have touched on track bias in this thread especially at the Maryland tracks. But as a general rule are track bias more prevalent in the winter months at Northern tracks? I just read an article that the BIG A was showing a strong rail bias lately. thx.

Absolutely !

Wherever there are freezing temperatures there must be more dirt/cushion to be able to work with to keep from freezing. Because the tracks have various degrees of pitch or slope, from the outside crown towards the inside, the more severe the pitch or angle, the stronger the biases can be.
So, the more angle that is created by said pitch, the faster the dirt when disturbed, will go towards the rail. The more times the tractor goes by to harrow the dirt to keep it from balling up or freezing, the more the cushion , by gravity, will go towards the inside rail. So, it must be graded out to the crown again every day. And because all this is going on, during the winter with less hours of daylight, there is more room for error when they have to hurry to do the job. On super cold nights the harrows will run all night long. And, grading in the dark CAN be done with headlights, it makes it more difficult to get it right as compared to doing so during daytime hours.

The track opens for training at 6AM. Gets a break to be harrowed from roughly 8;00-8:30. Then trained on again until 10 AM. First post is 12:30. That means horses on on the track by 12pm going towards the paddock. Before they grade it, the track must be cleared of all horses so that's around 10:20 AM. Then it needs to be harrowed once. That's 10:40 pm. That leaves 1 hour and 20 minutes to mover all that cushion back uphill with road graders. Add to that the driver getting out of his grader several times to measure to make sure he is grading the proper depth and you are left with very little time to go around several times with 2 graders to get the job done. Then, harrow back yet again to be consistent.
Whew! That's a lot to type , much less do everyday in about an hour and change. So it leaves little doubt that the track will be inconsistent from rail to crown on certain days. If they do not have enough time to do all this and grade at night, there is little doubt that the rail will be dead by race time giving the outside a huge edge.
Having this knowledge is a HUGE edge. Keeping score of this daily and applying it to your form is an added column of info that your competition does not have.
We can see this a lot in the winter but it also shows up on Saturdays and/ or big racing days where times matter. It's been years since the inside was not smoking hot at Pimlico on the day before as well as Preakness day. I have talked about this at length in here.

I cannot stress it enough for handicappers. It allows you to completely disregard acutely good or bad efforts depending upon the trip. Combine that with a horse that was terrible verses a bias as a favorite last time and totally WITH a bias this time at a price and that is the closest thing to Christmas in January you can find.

This happens often on the 4th of July as well with the rail, one way or another. It's because they give most of the maintenance people off that day so they will over grade the track so it does not become a bog down inside. Or a heavy rain storm that they know will hit so they are forced to over grade the inside. There are other reasons but those are the most prevalent.

Track management would always rather a fast rail instead of terribly slow times. Terribly slow times get bad press. Strong rails get very little press. So as long as we see sub freezing temps in NY, or anywhere, look for this to continue. Another way to identify grading just occurring, is to look underneath the inside rail about two feet. If it is perfectly smooth, they just graded it. ( The blade always starts about two feet under the rail and works itself outwards).
If it has dirt balls all over it and is all chopped up, It is most likely a dead rail because the dirt has rolled down hill and it has not yet been moved back up the hill.
Very few people know this including a staggering amount of trainers AND riders. Like I said, it's like having an extra line in the form that only a few have.
And please remember, it's not only about the speed inside, it's the closer inside as well and those with inside trip vs. outside trips. If a closer is on the rail for 1:22 and swings 4-5 wide to win in 1: 45 many people will say, " See, that horse won from the outside". Honestly, all I do is shake my head. The horse was on the rail for 1:22 seconds of the race but all they saw was the last 23 seconds.

Go back to the beginning of this thread and work your way forward. Not sure but I thought it was within the first ten pages where I explain how I graded each day , where I added it to my form and how it helped. I know I spoke about this several times. IMO, a vital piece of info to have for any winter racing venue. I would not bet seriously without it after seeing how important it was back when I was there.
Hope that helps EZ. I think it will.

All the best!