preakness

[JBEX]

#9 skippylongstocking (20-1)


don't see ml on this one..steadily improving #'s and the only descends were vs stakes company (except last race where he ran a big new top in the wood memorial..trainer excellent for value



#1simplification (6-1)

was discussed late friday and added early saturday..apologize for not putting SLS as a lean..will be on them both..I thank Madison for inquiring about him which made me look again



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[JBEX]

#9 skippylongstocking (20-1)


don't see ml on this one..steadily improving #'s and the only descends were vs stakes company (except last race where he ran a new top in the wood memorial..trainer excellent for value

had it as ascends

[Pigpen]

JBEX, I like your angle here. You are getting a much better price on a horse out of the Wood than I am. If I can get 4-1 or better on Early Voting I am going to play this guy. This is only his 4th race and if I am not mistaken the Preakness has historically favored speed and he should be up close to the front. Gun Runner has become one of my favorite sires. I am hoping the Derby may have taken a bit out of Epicenter or he will be tough. GL

[JBEX]

JBEX, I like your angle here. You are getting a much better price on a horse out of the Wood than I am. If I can get 4-1 or better on Early Voting I am going to play this guy. This is only his 4th race and if I am not mistaken the Preakness has historically favored speed and he should be up close to the front. Gun Runner has become one of my favorite sires. I am hoping the Derby may have taken a bit out of Epicenter or he will be tough. GL

if I weren't playing mine I'd probably be on early voting..speed ,extra rest good angles..gun runner and dam sire only horse to win bc classic twice


one of the tricky things to deal with for me is beyer and brisnet are about 12 lengths apart on how fast the wood memorial was..the latter much faster

[Madison]

Any thoughts on the 1 Simplification?

[BOA12]

Any thoughts on the 1 Simplification?

I'm going to look at Saturday's card Friday. Will add my 2 cents tomorrow M.

[JBEX]

Any thoughts on the 1 Simplification?

going to look

I'm going to look at Saturday's card Friday. Will add my 2 cents tomorrow M.

good deal

[JBEX]

I'm going to look at Saturday's card Friday. Will add my 2 cents tomorrow M.

very solid , consistent horse with a versatile running style..like also

happens to have the same sire/dam sire combo as epicenter..really amazing in a triple crown race

[JBEX]

very solid , consistent horse with a versatile running style..like also

happens to have the same sire/dam sire combo as epicenter..really amazing in a triple crown race

wrong post quoted.. talking about simplification

[BOA12]

Any thoughts on the 1 Simplification?

very solid , consistent horse with a versatile running style..like also

happens to have the same sire/dam sire combo as epicenter..really amazing in a triple crown race

I'm going 5/-1-8-9.

[JBEX]

I'm going 5/-1-8-9.

ok b o a..more I look at it think it's going to depend a lot on pace dynamics..I can't see epicenter letting ev out of his sight and possibly being aggressive to the lead right out of the gate..starting to believe that brisnet big figure closer to the truth (vs beyer) in the wood ..simplification (1) could sit a nice trip on the rail

[BOA12]

ok b o a..more I look at it think it's going to depend a lot on pace dynamics..I can't see epicenter letting ev out of his sight and possibly being aggressive to the lead right out of the gate..starting to believe that brisnet big figure closer to the truth (vs beyer) in the wood ..simplification (1) could sit a nice trip on the rail

I'm not a big beyers guy nor have I ever seen brisnet. Could be set up for Simplification.

[JBEX]

I'm not a big beyers guy nor have I ever seen brisnet. Could be set up for Simplification.

speed figures important to me although a lot less than they used to be over the years.. you can see when there's about a 10 length difference of opinion in a major stakes you have to be a little skeptical

[JBEX]

#9 skippylongstocking (20-1)


don't see ml on this one..steadily improving #'s and the only descends were vs stakes company (except last race where he ran a big new top in the wood memorial..trainer excellent for value

really like Simplification also so it's going to be between these two or possibly both with a different amount on each.. not going anywhere else with this

[Madison]

really like Simplification also so it's going to be between these two or possibly both with a different amount on each.. not going anywhere else with this

Just happy that I can add my semi-educated input and get your input!

Another interesting one on my list is R3 Airspeed Velocity. Questioning my due diligence, but he's on my barn??

[JBEX]

Just happy that I can add my semi-educated input and get your input!

Another interesting one on my list is R3 Airspeed Velocity. Questioning my due diligence, but he's on my barn??

I'll take a look later

[JBEX]

Just happy that I can add my semi-educated input and get your input!

Another interesting one on my list is R3 Airspeed Velocity. Questioning my due diligence, but he's on my barn??

we're on the same wavelength..would be my other choice

[ericool007]

Any thoughts on the 1 Simplification?

you get get 10-1 on simplification in the fixed odds via betonline.ag

https://classic.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/horses-daily

[ericool007]

also if anyone has any recommendations, I use to make a killing on the fixed odds and now Bovada and Betonline only have them for Major grade 1 races, last year they had the whole undercards grades 1, 2, 3 and even stakes that werent graded via fixed odds days before the races. I remember make near or over 1k on derby, preakness and Belmont day.

I get killed on the race board usually although I got lucky today I Bet a 10 dollar get your money back for 2nd or 3rd on interstatedaydream because he was 13 to 1 before the race and as they are racing I look down and see hes now 6-1, I was like WTF
Its so annoying i hate the tote board.
I only use it on Promotional days like get up to 10 dollars back if your horse places or shows.

[pimike]

JBEX,

So are we taking the 9 across the board?

[JBEX]

JBEX,

So are we taking the 9 across the board?

I'm boldfacing this response as another reminder that I'm including #1 SIMPLIFICATION in the betting..started out like it was just going to be #9 SLS and I should have begun it as a lean..I will be on both just to win maybe leaning 60/40 on #1 because of the odds disparity


I am not a show bettor mike and when I bet 2 horses it's only to win..but if you do it less often with the size of the pools in these races not a bad time for show


BUT LOL if you're playing both I wouldn't bet show





.

[JBEX]

I'm boldfacing this response as another reminder that I'm including #1 SIMPLIFICATION in the betting..started out like it was just going to be #9 SLS and I should have begun it as a lean..I will be on both just to win maybe leaning 60/40 on #1 because of the odds disparity


I am not a show bettor mike and when I bet 2 horses it's only to win..but if you do it less often with the size of the pools in these races not a bad time for show


BUT LOL if you're playing both I wouldn't bet show





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one of my biggest flaws over a long time doing this and especially on triple crown races is jumping in too soon..I see something I really like about 1 of them early and don't give enough consideration to the others..RICH STRIKE was an example..was he going to be my main pick based on what I missed. NO..but because he was a high odds AE I paid hardly any attention to him ..I posted somewhere in here that I would have weighted the big (17 lengths) maiden claiming win at churchill as a 2yo as a very heavy positive when you included some of the less than obvious aspects of the win (distance,post,point in his career*,fact it was at churchill)..would have been a side bet for me if I was paying closer attention


I know it's easy to say these things afterwards but I can assure you that I don't do this often for the obvious reasons




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[JBEX]

one of my biggest flaws over a long time doing this and especially on triple crown races is jumping in too soon..I see something I really like about 1 of them early and don't give enough consideration to the others..RICH STRIKE was an example..was he going to be my main pick based on what I missed. NO..but because he was a high odds AE I paid hardly any attention to him ..I posted somewhere in here that I would have weighted the big (17 lengths) maiden claiming win at churchill as a 2yo as a very heavy positive when you included some of the less than obvious aspects of the win (distance,post,point in his career*,fact it was at churchill)..would have been a side bet for me if I was paying closer attention


I know it's easy to say these things afterwards but I can assure you that I don't do this often for the obvious reasons




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post 51 54

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/horse-racing-betting/3697809-kentucky-derby-2022-a-p2.html#post30875531

[JBEX]

officially added #1 simplification to the original post

[JBEX]

so looks like going to be in the mid 90's around post time

[pimike]

Thanks

[JBEX]

Thanks

np mike..gl today

[Jellymancan]

JBEX, I like your angle here. You are getting a much better price on a horse out of the Wood than I am. If I can get 4-1 or better on Early Voting I am going to play this guy. This is only his 4th race and if I am not mistaken the Preakness has historically favored speed and he should be up close to the front. Gun Runner has become one of my favorite sires. I am hoping the Derby may have taken a bit out of Epicenter or he will be tough. GL

Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.

[JBEX]

Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.

congratulations jm

[BOA12]

Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.

Love is in the air Jelly. W/ U on #5. Honeymoon $$$.

[Jellymancan]

Thanks guys!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.

[mrginandtonic]

Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.

Congratulations Jelly; and your wife lets you play the horses today??!! She is definitely one to keep!! Congrats again!

[BOA12]

Just happy that I can add my semi-educated input and get your input!

Another interesting one on my list is R3 Airspeed Velocity. Questioning my due diligence, but he's on my barn??

[Jellymancan]

Congratulations Jelly; and your wife lets you play the horses today??!! She is definitely one to keep!! Congrats again!

Haha. Yes, she's a keeper. Took her to the spa 3 years ago and she loved it. Thanks again. Good luck to you today!