1. #1
    uvarunthetable
    uvarunthetable's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-12
    Posts: 416
    Betpoints: 3474

    Better Indication of True Odds: 5Dimes or the Track?

    So since it is Kentucky Derby 5dimes has a variety of props on all of the different horses to win. Obviously 5dimes does not constantly change these, whereas the odds for any horse to win if you bet at the track are constantly fluctuating. Since the 5dimes prop numbers will not exactly line up with the odds available at the track (since those odds are based purely on the amount of money wagered), which one of the two would you think more accurately captures the true odds of any one horse? My gut is 5dimes since we're so conditioned to believe in a book's numbers and since the track doesn't care what the odds are since they get their cut any way (not to mention Kentucky Derby gets bet by everyone under the sun, most not being sharp at all). I'd be interested to hear opinions on this, because it seems like there would be an opportunity to find horses whose odds are off in one of the markets (i.e. if you think 5dimes represents the most accurate line/true odds, and 5dimes has a horse at 10-1, but it is 20-1 at the track, it would seem like there is value in betting it at the track.) Just a random thought, interested to see what people have more faith in.

    BOL to everyone betting it, I'm on overanalyze in addition to a bunch of other fun props

  2. #2
    Easy-Rider 66
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 33,186
    Betpoints: 3353

    Good question. 5D opened MyLute at 33/1 and they dropped him to 19/1 last time I checked. He is currently 13/1 at the track. You can get some bigger prices at 5D then you would at the track. As for the question not sure.

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