2025 plays

[JBEX]

I'd be happy if he wins

in a Q with #4 kenny be

R6 ?

[BOA12]

R6 ?

ooops R2 kenny b.

was on #1 .

[JBEX]

saratoga 6 ( 2:40)
6 lisa joy (12-1)
out [11-1]

tough 1st half of the card for me today..R3 is absolutely loaded with talented maidens and sure they'll be a few good one's exiting that ..I'll start with R6 where both euros are very talented well bred horses.. chad brown's (#8 shelzawa) definitely better of the two but he's 5-2 ml .. go with the other who has nice credentials and will offer more value.. never know how they'll handle it over here and I like that unknown going against a low ml european


take a shot at R3 ... would feel bad if he won or ran well and didn't post.. definitely like to see some crowd support here



#5 holding power (15-1)

never close [39-1]

saratoga 8
5 straight arrow (15-1)
5th/12 [64-1] 2+ lengths winner

6 gold trust (30-1)
out [27-1]


just find it interesting he'd (same trainer) ship up here with both of these .. looks a little ambitious but I don't think outrageous they could run well here .. win only since there's 2

saratoga 11 (5:46) ny handicap (g1)
6 cankoura (12-1)
2nd/8 [8-1] < $7.44 > head

if you .. 4-1 and 7-2 were 1st and 3rd with 9-5 fav out.. (.50) triple $106.17


2nd best euro including a close 3rd in a group 1 in France (necessary to play) and those are better than here .. think there's value with this approach



saratoga 12 (6:25) ogden phipps stakes g1
1 fully subscribed (5-2)
career follow horse
2nd/6 [9-5] dead heat < $2.10 >

saratoga 14 (7:43)
3 blazing tiger (9-2)
4th/12 [5-2]




moved forward
added R8

[JBEX]

be at least 1 more ..won't have it posted till around 3:30

[JBEX]

be at least 1 more ..won't have it posted till around 3:30

just noticed my horse in R9 is scratched so going to stay away .. passing the acorn (R10 @ 5:08) .. going to look at final 3 and post at least 1 of those

[JBEX]

added saratoga 11 (post 1053)

[JBEX]

added saratoga 14

[JBEX]

added saratoga 12

[JBEX]

recorded saratoga 11 margin of a "head"

[JBEX]

saratoga 1 (11:00)
exacta 47 (one way .. currently $1/$11) 23 mtp
2nd/7 [3-5] < $2.34 >
4th [7-1]

saratoga 2 (11:37)
3 life and times
(9-5 ml .. current 7-5 @ 15 mtp)
3rd/8 [8-5]



saratoga 4 (2:53)
5 I'm a cutie pie (30-1)
4th/9 [33-1]

if you .. 4 horses <= 6-1 (the 5th was 9-1)..amongst those 4 were the top 3 finishers..dime super paid $91.58 (18 or 24 combos .. former if you leave 6-1 out of 1st which is reasonable as next lowest is 3-1


can't see why they'd ship here off her recent races although does have some back numbers that'd work in this field




saratoga 7 (2:47) just a game .. g1 stakes
#4 mandanaba (9-2)
2nd/8 [5-2] < $4.58 >

same french trainer/jock combo that I just missed with yesterday..this one has even better overseas credentials and that's reflected in the lower morning line

[JBEX]

not that the 2 was a must play (saratoga 1) but it was first time chad brown (2nd lifetime start) , expensive auction purchase by gun runner and thought enough to ship from monmouth to run in a tougher maiden race here .. did nothing in debut got you 18-1

[JBEX]

added saratoga 2

[JBEX]

looks like a good chance of late afternoon rain and thunderstorms at saratoga

[JBEX]

not going to play R3 .. going to look at 4-6

[JBEX]

added saratoga 4 (post 1060)

[JBEX]

with journalism and deterministic in the 2 races preceding the belmont stakes probably post a pick 3 singling those with my belmont pick which I think will be emerging market

kind of root for journalism as he was a derby future bet and thought he might run in this race after his last race which i posted back then..deterministic of course a long time follow which also started with a future bet

[JBEX]

added saratoga 7

[JBEX]

staying away through race 10 .. plays will be deterministic and journalism in their respective races before the belmont .. am considering going with longshot vitruvian in the belmont as he's the only one who's run on an off (muddy or sloppy) track and ran an excellent 2nd doing it ..this is assuming it will be an off track by post time ..will post final pick by 5:30

journalism 3rd/7 [2-1]
deterministic WON $11.84

[JBEX]

staying away through race 10 .. plays will be deterministic and journalism in their respective races before the belmont .. am considering going with longshot vitruvian in the belmont as he's the only one who's run on an off (muddy or sloppy) track and ran an excellent 2nd doing it ..this is assuming it will be an off track by post time ..will post final pick by 5:30

I wouldn't be surprised the possibility of an off track was "part" of the thinking in bringing him here

[JBEX]

my thoughts on emerging market are ..

able to break his maiden first out going 2 turns

able to win a graded stakes in 2nd start including a race that is a half furlong longer than the other final preps .. doing that in your first two starts is impressive

1 of 4 horses to have at least two works over the track since his last race

tough and rare to go into the derby in your 3rd start .. always willing to forgive subpar performances because of the freakish nature of the race


all that being said an off track discourages me at 5-1 .. my pick is #1 vitruvian man (30-1 ml and 20-1 currently) who is the only horse to not only run but run very well on it in his only start
..no regrets and won't be surprised if emerging markets does win but won't be my choice in the race

[JBEX]

since it's not 100% that it will be an off track will finalize at this

fast/good .. emerging markets
muddy/sloppy .. vitruvian man

emerging markets out [5-1]

[JBEX]

hong kong (boldface to distinguish)
sha tin .. sunday

ex: 6 [7] #6 post 7

top 3 split place

<< $2 US prices >> will be given on ITM horses
[final market price] = odds +1




R6 (6:30 am)
13 [10] ninja derby
out [32] thirty two

R7 (7:05)
5 [2] virtus glory
2nd/11 [3.9] < $3.40 >

R8 (7:35)
10 [2] parents' love
out [28] twenty eight

R9 (8:05)
5 [2] chill buddy
WON $11.80

[JBEX]

added sha tin 7

[JBEX]

added sha tin 8

[JBEX]

added sha tin 9

[JBEX]

horseshoe 5 (4:14)
3 infinite speed (12-1)
out [8-1]


churchill 9 (4:55)
5 eve (10-1)
out [6-1]

[JBEX]

with the extremely hot temps in ny waiting for the scratches .. think I'll be on at least one in R1 or 4

[BOA12]

with the extremely hot temps in ny waiting for the scratches .. think I'll be on at least one in R1 or 4

Lot of rain yesterday

hot and humid feels

like Miami here

and Indy too.

[JBEX]

Lot of rain yesterday

hot and humid feels

like Miami here

and Indy too.

surprised there weren't a few scratches because of it especially in R4 where there are some really expensive / well bred horses .. going to pass on R1 and heading out for an hour or so .. will look at the betting in R4 .. type of race it might yield some clues .. post is 2:43 and have something up by 2:33 latest even if it's a pass

[JBEX]

surprised there weren't a few scratches because of it especially in R4 where there are some really expensive / well bred horses .. going to pass on R1 and heading out for an hour or so .. will look at the betting in R4 .. type of race it might yield some clues .. post is 2:43 and have something up by 2:33 latest even if it's a pass

7 is my main focus .. (6-1) and would like to see him around 9-2

[JBEX]

7 is my main focus .. (6-1) and would like to see him around 9-2

5-1 with 9 mtp so being supported early .. will go with it #7 franklin delano

4th/8 [7-1]

baq 8 (4:47)
11 visible (8-1)
4th/8 [5-2] half length from 2nd

churchill 4 (6:27)
4 althesia (10-1)
WON $16.04

churchill 6 (7:25)
6 grande sorpresso (15-1)
2nd/8 [7-1] < 1 length
if you .. 8-5 , 5-2 former won $2 ex pd $53.46

churchill 8 (8:23)
9 cape sounion (15-1)
WON $14.28

[JBEX]

added baq 8

[BOA12]

5-1 with 9 mtp so being supported early .. will go with it #7 franklin delano

4th/8 [7-1]

baq 8 (4:47)
11 visible (8-1)

GL running out of

6 hole helps.

Race like red sea

parting- wide open.

[JBEX]

GL running out of

6 hole helps.

thanks boa

yes big difference

[JBEX]

added churchill 4