claiming races for horses with <4 wins (including maidens) at gulfstream and tampa

[JBEX]

Ok
Dang 2 almost got it.

no I meant in my writeup for R3 I questioned why they would put the 7 up for a tag..looked too good to be up for sale..he was claimed by one of the top claiming trainers Mike maker..have a hunch they're going to regret doing it

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #11 dona camille (10-1) 10WP

R2 contest thread

R3 #5 bychance (20-1) 10WP

absolutely horrendous jockey but this trainers won twice with him in a limited amount of starts.. aside from the 7 (why up for sale?) those races aren't bad vs this bunch



R4 jack el barbaro (15-1) 10WP

crazy ml.. 3rd career start.. last race 18 days ago and race before that 17..perfectly fine effort last out to win on a 2 level drop and not unrealistic based on what he cost.. chance for a jock like vasquez to take down irad and luis


R6 contest thread

R7 #5 money ride (9-2) 10WP
R10 #1 new york commander (12-1)10 WP

first attempt last race (2nd career start) at this distance not bad.. everything spaced 3 weeks apart (to the day).. big jockey upgrade.. bad trainer imo gets you this ml but this is the type of race a bad trainer can win more often .. bottom maiden claimer

golden gate


R3 #2 takes a village (9-5) 15W about an hour before post

[Louisvillekid1]

golden gate


R3 #2 takes a village (9-5) 15W about an hour before post

Tailing

[JBEX]

Tailing

nothing hidden about him.. looks like the drop is what's needed and don't have it right in front of me now but believe trainer good at that

[JBEX]

Tailing

good luck

[pimike]

#5 5.80 to place

Needed him

[JBEX]

something anyway

[pimike]

something anyway

Yes put more on it too
Lol

Little chasing

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks fir the winner

nice job grinding away

[pimike]

golden gate


R3 #2 takes a village (9-5) 15W about an hour before post

[pimike]

Will there be more after the 10th race?

Don’t want to miss any today.

[JBEX]

Thanks fir the winner

nice job grinding away

thanks guys

[JBEX]

Will there be more after the 10th race?

Don’t want to miss any today.

had to step out..no that's it ,back tomorrow

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #11 dona camille (10-1) 10WP

R2 contest thread

R3 #5 bychance (20-1) 10WP

absolutely horrendous jockey but this trainers won twice with him in a limited amount of starts.. aside from the 7 (why up for sale?) those races aren't bad vs this bunch



R4 jack el barbaro (15-1) 10WP

crazy ml.. 3rd career start.. last race 18 days ago and race before that 17..perfectly fine effort last out to win on a 2 level drop and not unrealistic based on what he cost.. chance for a jock like vasquez to take down irad and luis


R6 contest thread

R7 #5 money ride (9-2) 10WP
R10 #1 new york commander (12-1)10 WP

first attempt last race (2nd career start) at this distance not bad.. everything spaced 3 weeks apart (to the day).. big jockey upgrade.. bad trainer imo gets you this ml but this is the type of race a bad trainer can win more often .. bottom maiden claimer

R1 out @ 9-1
R3 out @ 40-1
R4.. 3rd @ 5-1
R7.. 2nd @ 7-1 (29)
R10.. out @ 11-1


R3 winner $4.80 (36) 15W (posted elsewhere. GG)


100/29

risk 515 /return 191




what a sht show this is at the halfway mark

[Louisvillekid1]

What about your GG winner?

[JBEX]

What about your GG winner?

thanks


certainly can't forget about winners with what's going on here

[JBEX]

charlestown (not graded)

R6 #4 our diamond girl (5-1)

4.5f msw race.. 1st time starter, homebred with a speed on speed pedigree (sire/dam sire).. dam has been productive producing winners although none of them anything special.. but you probably wouldn't have to be special here vs statebred maidens.. trainer excellent with debuters and solid jockey aboard

[Louisvillekid1]

Game of ups and downs

i like the thread

Jbex , maybe get involved in the contests

I’m trying to learn the sites easy always mentioned

tiny risk / decent rewards

could supplement and provide action during bankroll dips

I would like to learn more

and think we could compete any contest for that matter

especially when you get to control the times you play

I don’t think much better capping is going on nation wide

then what we share here

I swear , I listen to tvg and talking heads

and it’s like they repeating shit we talked about first

honestly believe that

[Louisvillekid1]

I mean we were on this khozan talk waaaay before the fact

among many other angles

[JBEX]

Game of ups and downs

i like the thread

Jbex , maybe get involved in the contests

I’m trying to learn the sites easy always mentioned

tiny risk / decent rewards

could supplement and provide action during bankroll dips

I would like to learn more

and think we could compete any contest for that matter

especially when you get to control the times you play

I don’t think much better capping is going on nation wide

then what we share here

I swear , I listen to tvg and talking heads

and it’s like they repeating shit we talked about first

honestly believe that

thanks.. I like these types of races best so this way i'm committing in advance that I'm going to stick with them.. added some additional categories yesterday.. feel I have no edge with the other categories so why spend time on them


I can't knock contests just on the idea that there's much less take.. think you have to keep in mind the math though.. if you are a very talented horseplayer maybe you have a 10-15% edge.. if you're playing in a $20 contest that means on average you'll make $2-$3 a day playing them.. think you really have to play for bigger stakes to make it worthwhile.. I realize this is coming from somebody who doesn't play but I'm trying to look at it from the point of view of somebody who does.. I think you're better off sticking with real playing even with the heavier tax.. I feel horizontals over the long haul pay better than they should when you get a good price or two along with a midrange.. I'm talking vs the parlay price.. that definitely cuts into the higher vig


I agree that if you do play contests it should be when you have a better than average feel for the card.. that's part of your edge not fighting every fight


lots of good horseplayer in this forum.. get some good discussions going is beneficial to everyone


love the pedigree stuff as I'm sure you've gathered.. whether it's true what I said about khozan having an edge in breeding because he's from an uncommon line of mr p I don't know lol.. I really think that's true but in reality above my pay grade..but I do think just the basics is very helpful with not only maidens but lightly raced horses in general

[JBEX]

tampa

R2 #6 brycens gold (12-1) 10WP

exits an extremely fast race (always relative to level when I say this) and was involved for 6 of the 7f..think will be single digits


R3 #4 little natalia (15-1) 5WP

broke maiden in 2nd career start 2 back..then broke slow last race and ran a gradual fade line mid pack.. I like these types as a stretch out primer and for other situations also.. if you look at this horse's debut line it's very similar to her last race.. realize we didn't see her again for 8 months after that while today it's back in 12 days.. also like that it's only her 4th start and not a repeat loser like many of these



R6 #5 three quarter time (10-1) 10 WP

horse is primed for the drop and stretch.. 4yo filly making 3rd career start and first time up for a tag (trainer sensational at this move).. route pedigree top and bottom including excellent turf dam sire smart strike.. crappy turf jock gets a chance to bag a win


R7 #3 unflappable max (20-1) 10WP

3rd race off an almost 5 month layoff and races spaced 18 and 16 days apart.. 1st off the layoff a fine leg-stretcher and had a wide post and trip last out.. gets an inside post today and if he can approach his finger lakes numbers from last fall can run with these



R8 #5 tetsu (8-1)10 WP
R8 #2 king tide (30-1) 5W only

don't like WP on 2 horses


R9 #2 cliffy (8-1) 10WP

more realistic spot in 3rd career start after breaking maiden in debut.. horse who won last race repeated at gulfstream yesterday.. gallardo stays aboard for solid trainer



golden gate

R9 #6 power times two (9-2) 5WP
R10 #9 jazz street (4-1) 5WP

..

[pimike]

tampa

R2 #6 brycens gold (12-1) 10WP

exits an extremely fast race (always relative to level when I say this) and was involved for 6 of the 7f..think will be single digits


R4 #4 little natalia (15-1) 5WP

broke maiden in 2nd career start 2 back..then broke slow last race and ran a gradual fade line mid pack.. I like these types as a stretch out primer and for other situations also.. if you look at this horse's debut line it's very similar to her last race.. realize we didn't see her again for 8 months after that while today it's back in 12 days.. also like that it's only her 4th start and not a repeat loser like many of these

Race 4 #4 is Tithed at Tampa????

[pimike]

Race 4 #4 is Tithed at Tampa????

It’s race #3

[JBEX]

It’s race #3

good catch pmike thanks


probably put some gulfstream up but an off track for me is a half unit day.. not going to rate and can play any type of race

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl today

[JBEX]

finished tampa

[JBEX]

Gl today

thanks kid

[JBEX]

amended eligible races post 36



santa anita

R1 #2 kanderel (6-1) 10WP

makes no sense at all to me why he's running in a sprint.. but it's richard mandella so I'm in


R2 #6 sweet honor (4-1) 10 WP
R4 #1 stick up (3-1) 15W
R7 #3 kuda huraa (15-1) 10WP


R9 contest thread





..

forward

[pimike]

finished tampa

1st one in the books!

Sweet start!

[Seastriper]

1st one in the books!

Sweet start!

[Seastriper]

R6 #5 three quarter time (10-1) 10 WP

[pimike]

R6 #5 three quarter time (10-1) 10 WP

Solid!!

[Seastriper]

NICE JOB TODAY JBEX! WTG

[JBEX]

Solid!!

thanks guys

[JBEX]

added last 2 at golden gate post 91