Saratoga

[Louisvillekid1]

Zippo on Sunday

This Saratoga/Belmont Triple crown is interesting

Great week of racing at the spa

15-16 Stakes Races

Including Saratoga Oaks/ Saratoga Derby/ Whitney

Doing Wednesday Card now...

[Louisvillekid1]

Lots of these races are the same entrants we capped for Thursday and got cancelled...

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 1

50k Allowance going 1 1/16 on the inner

I'll be looking to beat the favorite here for sure in #4 Joy of Treasure , complete toss for me...

#1 Tass (12/1) This one is very interesting to me, shipping up from the Maryland Jockey Club, ran 2nd in debut sprint, the stretched out and won, was right within 1.5 of the leaders the entire race and got the head up at the wire. That's rather impressive , and seems to be encouraging making this move right up to the 50k allowance circuit in NY. They are also added blinkers and maybe the best speed rider in the game right now. Negative signs that the horse has been off for a while, but will need to be fresh if this wire to wire attempt is successful, but I would liked to see a work or 2 on the track. This one is important for handicapping the race's pace but not ready to think that turf speed is going to translate here with this field.

#2 Star Swept (10/1) Is used to long layoffs already in her short 3 race career and has been improving. She can sit off the pace and move late, and should take to the added distance in this affair. Must use at this price imo...

#3 Middle out (8/1) out ran her odds finishing 3rd last out first time vs winners @ 29/1. Was rode by Jose who is on the chalk here, and I believe that last running line is going to create shorter odds on this one than it deserves. I don't wanna knock Abreu at all here, but Im comfortable leaving out for the win money.

#4 Joy of Treasure (5/2), is pretty simple toss. 1 for 8 and even had to drop to 35kMC to break the maiden. Has been shipped back and forth from Florida and Kentucky, finished 7th at this level after breaking the maiden. Willing to tip cap and rip up my ticket if this 5/2 or less favorite wins, even on the drop with the sharp local work.

#5 Team Win (6/1), Pletcher keep moving this horse up after 4 losses finally dropped to that 40k ** level to break the Maiden. Irad sticking around is encouraging but another that Im comfortable leaving out, going against winners for the first time.

#6 Kingdom's Queen (2/1), MTO no need to write on this one, OBV very live if its off turf (lets hope not)

#7 Keota (3/1), This horse definitely poses a threat , already with 3 wins in here career. However, 2 of her wins vs winners, were in wire to wire fashion and looking at her running lines, seems likes the best chance she has to win. Could get caught up in a speed early, but I don't think Jason Servis and Jose Lezcano will have that in their plan. Going to be too short a price for me.

#8 Seaside Dancer (3/1) was my top choice on Thursday and Continues to be here. This one has won 4 in a row, shipping all the way in from Cali , first off the claim. Luis gets the nod, but i do have concerns getting into this route too early up front w/ Kendrick on the rail. If these 2 get dueled early it really could hurt her chances as she likes to win from the front as well. I just think this one is faster than the rest.

#9 Pure Praise (15/1) , Stretching back out should be good for this one, and could pick up some scraps late, can't use to win, but wouldn't mind using underneath.

In Conclusion I have 2 possible winners in the #2 and #8

The 8 is the horse w/ tyler that would benefit from an early speed duel and maybe could measure the 8 up late at a price.

Im Confident in using both of them in the Horiztonals

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[Louisvillekid1]

Race 2

25k Claimer going 6.5 on the Dirt

#1 Zandora (7/2) , This filly is 0-4 on the grass, but ran in the slop in a race scheduled for turf and won breaking her maiden by 12. She has been working well, and going green to brown, shortening up, adding blinkers, and brad cox seems to have this one focused for this race. Hard to Exclude.

#2 Big Benny's Tribute (5/1), This one is kinda tricky, I mean lots of mixed feelings here, Obv don't like the running lines in last 2 after breaking her maiden in debut. But its scary to leave Linda Rice 1st off the claim and Jose returns. Put up a bullet last work @ Belmont, but Im sure i'll prefer others as i continue handicapping this race. For now we are leaving off, just one of those where if you miss the horizontal from this one being left off, you'll be upset at yourself. But for now, passing

#3 Dazzling Speed (12/), Simply can't make a case for this one to win.

#4 Shak's Hidden Gem (15/1), Same Feelings here

#5 Movie Score (9/2), CAn't really figure out this M/L Price, But either way, im not interested.

#6 Incredible Miss (20/1), PAss

#7 Peggy Sue (8/1), Herman Harkie Sighting!, and I think we can use this one, Prefer over the Linda Rice Entrant. Has a race over the track in which ran third behind the #8 horse who will get to next. and is taking step up in class. HH won on this one in belmont @ this distance which she seems to prefer. This one is going to be in the mix.

#8 She's Not Bluffing (8/5) , Absloute Must use

This is a race where I really like the chance of at least 2 of these 3 to finish 1/2

An Exacta Box of 1,7,8 is a very strong play and I'll take a shot will all 3 on the horizontal

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[Louisvillekid1]

Race 3

78k MSW

Going 6 furlongs on the Sand.

Only the #2 Horse has ran a race before in this one, so not gonna sit here and write about the history of breeding from each and bore you ...

I honestly have no clue where to go here...

THE AE horse #11 Saratoga Beauty (10/1) is one I'll definitely use if she can get in.

#10 Courageous Girl (12/1) is a spot I like for Manny/Donk

Throw in the Favorite #1 Risky Mischief (5/2) Jose/Englehart. These into the Mischief's have been doing great at first asking.

Also #3 Mrs Phelps (10/1) incase Kendrick can get to lead

So I'll rock those 4 on the horizontal ticket

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 4


New York Stallion Series S.

Just your typical mid week/mid card 150k Stakes race @ Saratoga lol

Going a mile on the grass

#1 Dancing Slippers (30/1), I don't know what to tell you , except if this one wins , one person might take the early Pick4/5 and from having all on their ticket. I mean horse starts off 0-3 beaten by 42.5 lengths and they decide to run in 200k allowance race @ 65/1 and losses by 23. Back to the maiden circuit they go, and proceed to go 0-3 beaten by another 40 lengths, and decide hey lets try it again.

#2 Sterling Beauty (15/1), This is nothing more than a nibbler at this level

#3 Rossellini (12/1), This one may surprise. After Breaking her maiden on the 3rd try moved up to 50k Allowance finished 4th beaten by only 2. In a race where she went 6 ride and Junior lost the whip, while still moving her. Im gonna track down a replay of this one. Bill mott is obv having a great meet and I look for this one to improve.

#4 Subsidary (9/2), This is probably your pace setter as the 3 inside horses possess zero speed. This is monster jump up in class however, and I of course trust Mr. Casse and Joel as professional as they come, but Im leaning on passing here.

#5 Kid is Frosty (2/1), Ive grown to like this one for obv reasons and is trying to go back to back. Just won by a neck against the 2 outside horses here (who we will get to shortly) and should be right there once again, but is trying the stretch out for the first time.

#6 Bangle Gal (4/1), going for the hat trick here, but I believe out classed by some.

#7 Niko's Dream (8/5), Simple must use, the added distance is great for here in this spot and should beat kid is frosty just because of that. If I don't have a single in the next race , Im going to single here

#8 Newly Minted (3/5), wins easy if this is off the turf.

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[Louisvillekid1]

Race 5

75k MSW

Turf Sprint going 5 1/2

Again not gonna write on every horse in these Maiden Races, just too much info to type...

Bottom Line is You almost have to use Wesley Ward in these no matter what.

#2 Las Ramblas (5/1)
#4 Girlintheyellowtaxi (3/1)
#8 KitKatKatie (4/1) in a great rebound spot

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 6

Another 90k MSW

5.5 on the dirt

#4 Slam Dunk (6/1)
#6 Figure of Speech (3/1)
#7 Hallajoori (5/1)

If I was playing the late pick 5 , I'd use these 3

I just simply like how these Into the Mischief's are running early and of course love the Santana/Asmussen Combo on the 7

Im not on w/ NYRA as of now to play late pick 5, but still sharing the info

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[Louisvillekid1]

Race 7

92k Allowance going 1 & 1/16 on the grass

#1 English Soul (6/1) , We have been talking about this one since trying to get on her Thursday. Must Include

#2 Mascha (6/5) , have to use no matter what. Chad has been doing great with this European Shippers first time in the states.

#8 Altea (3/1) , Another brown you must use especially since Javy is in the pilot seat.

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[Easy-Rider 66]

LKID putting the time in. Appreciate it. You love capping the SPA. GL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 8

80k Allowance 5.5 on the turf

#2 Something Joyful (8/1) seems like a prime choice for under your exotics

#3 Short Pour (6/1) very similar thoughts

#7 QuestQ ( 12/1) Underneath

#8 Tzipi (10/1) Underneath

#10 Ailish (9/2) Underneath

#11 Jaded Lady (6/1) , Is my top selection and I like her quite a bit. This race is wide open but if you can be right on the doubles and triples you are gonna get paid. Shanghai Bobby's have been rolling as of late. This one is 3rd off the layoff and has been shortening each time. Seems like lots of other contenders here would prefer 6 / 6.5 / or even 7. Broke her maiden here at this distance last year, and has just missed while improving in last 2, as the added distance has hurt here. This one is set up perfect here, albeit a wide open affair.

#14 Hollywood Cat (5/1) , and must use if 2 scratches

I'll be using only those 2 to win on the horizontals

But Im going to have a Vertical play of some sort as well.


Honestly Im opening the #14 doesn't get in and I'll str8 key and single the 11....

[Louisvillekid1]

LKID putting the time in. Appreciate it. You love capping the SPA. GL.

Yessir, just capping together with you guys, writing as I study...

Its helps imo

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yessir, just capping together with you guys, writing as I study...

Its helps imo

Yes sir. When I post picks like to post in real time. Not much for capping in advance Like you and JBEX. You both more adept at that style.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 9

100k Shine Again

7/8's on the Dirt

I have not been able to find PP's for this race...

I see the #1 Special Realtivity is 3 for 3 here

But I need to locate PP's before going forward on this leg

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[Louisvillekid1]

Yes sir. When I post picks like to post in real time. Not much for capping in advance Like you and JBEX. You both more adept at that style.

Yeah the tote can change my mind for win and exotics bets

But if your gonna play horizontals , you gotta cap in advance, obvsiouly

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah the tote can change my mind for win and exotics bets

But if your gonna play horizontals , you gotta cap in advance, obvsiouly

Yeah I just find I am better going race to race. More comfortable looking at the tote. But I do cap in advance for lockdown tournament games where all picks must be in by first post. But rarely post those plays.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 10

40k **

1 & 1/16 on the turf

#2 Andi's Kitten (6/1), Must include .. First off the claim for Danny Gargan and Kendrick gets the nod.

#3 Simply Miss Red, (15/1), could most definitely improve, going back to the green.. Let me see If I have room on the card after I figure out what to do w/ race #9

#4 MOrelikelythannot (5/2), I mean extremely difficult to toss this chad brown filly. Takes the Drop, and javy comes back

#5 Sister Gema (15/1) , could surprise here

#6 Into Glamour (20/1), as well , jeez

#7 Downstream (10/1), Could steal it?

#8 To a Friend (3/1), Is the one to beat. Lead more than half way around in last going 1 & 3/16's , Monster drop off the 2 month layoff. Blinkers come off to allow this one to relax and rate here. Jonathan Thomas excellent off the bench...

I don't much on the outside horses...

What I wanna do is key the 8 over some off those inside horses

[Louisvillekid1]

So here's what I got

$108 so far in play, but im sure under a c-note after changes...

Early Pick 5

Race 1... 2,8
Race 2... 1,7,8
Race 3... 1,3,10,11
Race 4... 7
Race 5... 2,4,8

$36

Late Pick 4

Race 7...1,2,8
Race 8... 11
Race 9...1,2,5,6
Race 10... 2,8

$12

Race 1... $2 Tri 8 w/ 2 w/ 3,9 ($4)
Race 2... $5 Ex Box 1,7,8 ($30)
Race 8... $2 Tri 11 w/ 2,3 w/ 2,3,7,8,10 ($16)
Race 10..$2 Tri 2,8 w/ 2,8 w/ 3,4,5,6,7 ($20)

[Louisvillekid1]

Will update after changes

Good Luck all

[Louisvillekid1]

Thursday card looking bleak

fri - Sunday are great

good weather please!

[Louisvillekid1]

MAN looks like rain tomorrow

this card is gonna suck if they come off the grass

[Boner_18]

Yeah. Assuming the forecast holds they're def taking it off. My gal English Soul loves the slop but will prob be unbettable as a post time fave. If the Chad brown shipper stays in and is favorited I'll hammer ES, but not at odds less than 5/2.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is the major problem with Saratoga. The weather is just so screwed up. Great track. Great town. Lousy weather.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah. Assuming the forecast holds they're def taking it off. My gal English Soul loves the slop but will prob be unbettable as a post time fave. If the Chad brown shipper stays in and is favorited I'll hammer ES, but not at odds less than 5/2.

I agree ...

if if that’s the case I’ll prob just bet a Hundo on em

[Louisvillekid1]

This is the major problem with Saratoga. The weather is just so screwed up. Great track. Great town. Lousy weather.

Yeah especially with this recent heat wave

cards get blown up

[stevenash]

This is the major problem with Saratoga. The weather is just so screwed up. Great track. Great town. Lousy weather.

Huh?
The past week has been pretty much sunny, highs usually upper 80's.
I can't recall a storm in the past few weeks.

[Louisvillekid1]

Huh?
The past week has been pretty much sunny, highs usually upper 80's.
I can't recall a storm in the past few weeks.

Last Thursday got cancelled after 4

several off the turf in the weeks past

they have high standards for their turf course

but yeah it hasn’t been too bad


i really liked tomorrow cards


but looks like a lotta wasted time capping at this point


Thursday is really tough , gigantic fields with lots of AE

[Louisvillekid1]

It’s storming now all night and expecting rain during the card

prob just gonna work on Thursday card

obv will be editing my Wednesday card in a big way

[Louisvillekid1]

The opener on Thursday is BRUTAL to cap. I mean I can make case for almost every one. 16 Horses on the docket w/ AE's & MTO's

I have no clue and not going to be able to play the early pick 5 at this point.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 2

six furlongs on the dirt

Rudy Rod has a coupled entry here, both first off the claim (which he is great doing, and puts Irad and Luis in the reins. Hard to ignore.

#2 NO Deal is very interesting. Eric Cancel has rode this one 5 times since Decemeber of last year, never worst than 2nd. 4 outta those 5 were at much higher levels and never more beaten than a length (except last out in the slop) 7 2-2-1 @ this distance and has tactical speed. Should be able to rate nicely here, Must use @ 8/1 3rd off the layoff and beaten favorite last out.

Cant ignore the 3/5 favorite #4 LAdy's Island, Lezcano for Gargan. Won 5 of 6 and 6 of 8, majority at higher levels. Have to use.

The other Gargan in here Trouble for Skylar appears that the running styles could clash and duel early.

Depending on what I see in the later races, If I play the pick 4 I'd use the #2 No Deal (8/1) & #4 Lady's Island (3/5)

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 3

5 1/2 Dirt Sprint 50k M C

#1 Rejected Again (9/2), David Cohen is 2 outta 3 at the meet and Gullo is 8 2-1-2. Gave up the lead late after awkward start in debut, Drops in Class, and adds the eye cups. The plan Seems pretty clear to try and take this field wire to wire and with several making their debut's, I can see it happening.. The entry mate I don't see much in, but this one is live.

Pletcher has 2 in here (one is on the AE list) and Im seeing his 30% in M C races, but I know that he never starts the goods in the claiming ranks, and Im willing leave off the ticket. He just doesn't seem to have it so far this meet.

#3 Vaya Con Dios (5/1) Is a threat to get the lead w/ the #1 here as he gave up the lead as well but completely faded. Big drop however and this 135k purchase deserves a second chance.

The only first I'd use is the #6 Bahamian Price (4/1), shipping up from Jersey and actually I'll make my top selection. Strong sigh Paco Lopez takes the trip up for Kelly Breen.

Im going to Play the #6 over the 1,3 and single the 6 in the pick 4 and the 6 to win

[JBEX]

The opener on Thursday is BRUTAL to cap. I mean I can make case for almost every one. 16 Horses on the docket w/ AE's & MTO's

I have no clue and not going to be able to play the early pick 5 at this point.

agree.. for a msw race a bunch of cheap horses.. don't want to go ward (#9) or the one horse that ran well in his debut (#10) because that's too easy... I'll go with the next in line #7 smite (9-2).. more of a speed pedigree and dam a winner whose produced 2 winners from as many starters including a turf winner..saez rides..


I think there's a shot we'll get at least a good track tomorrow.. the worst of its passing through now and not supposed to be a lot over the next 24 hours according to national weather service (2/10ths of an inch) ..maybe we'll get lucky

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 4

40k M C going 1 1/16 on the inner

#1 Ideational (5/2), hasn't ran since debut 8 months ago and takes a big drop here for Chad Brown. Fits well

#6 Pecatonica (10/1) Clement and Rosario have been rolling lately. This one didn't show much in debut , but coming back to the grass today could improve. Worth a shot

There simply are a bunch of horses that couldn't cut after several tries on the MSW circuit , dropped and still couldn't or trying the drop for the first time.

#7 Memories Eternal (9/2) Luiz Saez for Joe Sharp is by far my top selection and a strong play. Will definitely have a win ticket on this one. She had terrible starts in the last 2 and still recovered to run well. They but on the blinkers to help with that today and bred to run all day, so should love the added distance. 3 back ran 2nd at this level in turf debut to a next out winner, putting up an 83 beyer. Gets the jockey upgrade , should start better with the blinks, and drops back down. Strong play and really hope to get this price.

7 to win
Single 7 in Pick 4
7 w/ 1,6 w/ all tri

[Louisvillekid1]

agree.. for a msw race a bunch of cheap horses.. don't want to go ward (#9) or the one horse that ran well in his debut (#10) because that's too easy... I'll go with the next in line #7 smite (9-2).. more of a speed pedigree and dam a winner whose produced 2 winners from as many starters including a turf winner..saez rides..


I think there's a shot we'll get at least a good track tomorrow.. the worst of its passing through now and not supposed to be a lot over the next 24 hours according to national weather service (2/10ths of an inch) ..maybe we'll get lucky

Yeah i can't argue with you there. Like i said I could make a case for a ton ...

Lets hope it clears up!

Love your work

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 5 30k Claiming

Turf sprint going 5.5

Man there is not much in speed in the race at all the #1 Red Hot Dame and #9 Shanghai Bonnie, really the only speed. Maybe the 8 but doubt it with julien.

#1 Red Hot Dame (8/1) , 6 different track in as many races for 3rd off the claim for Mike Maker. Quit halfway through last out, and should appreciate the shortening . Maker 28% in doing just that. Horse in for a tag for the first time off the drop and has a lot of positives entering this race. However Im sure I'll prefer others

Here we go #5 Tradeable (15/1), She is 8 1-1-0 lifetime and the win and 2nd where her first 2 races right here last year @ this distance. They ran this one in a G3 after that in which she did ok 6 beaten by 4.5 and has had a rough go of it since. First off the Claim for Englehart (6 2-1-1) and already has a work on the track. This one should be able to sit off the pace especially if the 1 and 9 get into that possible duel early. As this one likes to stalk when at her best. Seems like a potential player at a price , as the new barn might of came just in time.

#7 Galadreils Light (6/1), Jose Ortiz for Linda Rice. This one quit late going a mile last out here a little over a week ago, when Linda shortens and runs right back in this spots she does well. This one clearly better on the green, and is a contender.

#9 Shanghai Bonnie (7/2) have to use with all that speed. Simple