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Tampa Bay R9- SF Davis for 3yo 1 1/16 dirt G3
I think the biggest factor in this race will be the pace. Looking at the form, it doesn't appear to have a lot pace in this race. Which one will take the lead?? To the opening 1/2 mile?? I think the 1- Harpoon will inherit the lead due to the fact he is on the rail. He will probably control the pace, but will he last?? He just broke his maiden after 4 tries. My guess he will be 2nd or 3rd because he seems to run his race every time. On paper there seems to be a lot of closers which doesn't help their cause IMO. So I am gonna go with the 6- Asserting Bear ML @ 9-2. I think he will go off higher than that just because there are two Pletcher horses and Chad Brown and Wesley War all seem to have a good chance. I like Asserting Bear's running style in this race. The only concern is can he take dirt?? I guess we will find out.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. Till next time, GL to all.
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Yeah 3 horses including yours have never run on dirt. Going with the #5 Cousin Stephen. Has run the 2nd best figure in the field next to 5/2 choice Harpoon. Cutting back from a 1 1/8. 2 recent bullet works. Currently 6/1 20 minutes out.Comment -
Vinceremos #4 won by a nose over Harpoon. Cousin Stephen was right there but finished 3rd or 4th. Good race.Comment -
Damn, that Pletcher/Prado stats (42%) cannot not be ignore.
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Easy, what do you think of the 6?? Did it look like he has trouble with the surface?? To me, he looked like he was struggling a bit. TksComment -
In the spirit of trying to learn something after the fact let me look <br>
again at the winner.. Ran credible race in the slop first out. Broke his <br>
maiden at a mile next start with a bit of a trouble trip off a 5 week rest<br>
340k 2yo purchase so Todd must have really thought this horse was <br>
something special to run him in this Grade 3. His beyers lower than the <br>
other Pletcher who just missed but that's what got you the price.Comment -
Was looking at the replay myself, the 6 was 3 wide at top stretch, got push out even more, the 5 & 6 both wide on the far turn, that is when the inside opened for Prado, 4 saved alot of ground. But the 6 didn't do any running when they straighten out. DRF comment said he was tired. But the 1-Harpoon (the place horse which is the other Pletcher trained) made up a ton of ground in the stretch. Interesting and may be a horse to watch.Comment -
1-Harpoon definitely showed more in his past performances
than 4-Vinceremos did. Guess I'm commenting more on Pletcher
aggressively placing an expensive 3yo in a G3 stakes. Realize
Harpoon also a maiden coming in but he had a few more good
races under his belt. Is it a sign of confidence he's got something
when he skips levels especially considering he's got the best stock
of almost anyone in the gameComment -
Agreed. So did Cousin Stephen. But on the Timeform Numbers Vinceremos showed good improvement last race jumping up about 11 points. Had a feeling with further improvement that he might have a say, but thought at 6/1 10 minutes out that Cousin Stephen had the most value.Originally posted by JBEX;21050630HarComment -
It was also a big positive that Prado took off several live looking mounts at Gulfstream to ride Vinceremos at TB.Comment -
The Hutcheson where he was also entered looked like
a much deeper field IMO and he would have had to go from
the 10 postComment -
No time to cap today. But seriously, 1/5 on the 4??Comment -
Race of the Day- GP R9 Optional Claiming $100k @ 1 1/16 dirt.
ML favorites are 2- Golden Lad @5-2, 4-Atigun @3-1. On paper, the 2- Golden Lad is the now horse, having won 2 in a row locally. But he is moving up in class and going two turns. So I think that is enough reasons for me to go against him for the win if the price is too short.
4-Atigun is off a short layoff and trainer doesn't have great numbers off layoffs and last time he was off layoff, he ran ok. He definitely has enough class for this group. But he is not exactly a winning machine. But definitely should be included in the exotics.
I think the interesting horse here is the 7- Speak Logic @6-1. He was in Breeders Cup Juv ran against Shanghai Bobby, in the Fountain of Youth against Orb. Plesa has good numbers with layoffs. Rosario sees fit to ride him. He will most like bet down, just don't know how much. So I'm gonna take a chance on him. Key 7 with 4.
The long shot that I like is the 9-Diva Spirit @15-1. Normally I don't like filly against boys. But I think she has chance to be in trifecta and superfecta. She is out of AP Indy and she has won 3 of 6 in this distance, broke her maiden here. Although her numbers look kinda weak, her running style seems to fit in this race.
My bet will most likely be, will look at tote when time comes.
7-4 exacta box
7,4/2,4,7/2,4,7,9. Tri
7,4/2,4,7/2,4,7,9/2,4,5,7,9
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
GL all.Comment -
Hmm, the 7 opened @ 1-5, now it makes me want to beat him......
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Now is 2-1.......
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The now horse went off at 2-1, which is much better than I thought. So, it was worth a bet, if it were 6/5, I would have pass. Too bad, the 7 didn't do chit...,,,oh well, till next time. GL everyone.Comment -
If the track is all front runners like it has been then the R B Lewis is probably between the 2 Bafferts even with a likely fast pace.The race sets up perfectly for Cool Samurai and he should be the one running them down the fastest if the track allows it.Comment -
Tks Mike for your input. On paper, it sure looks like one of the Bafferts is gonna do it. The 5-Cool Samurai looked good coming from behind. The sleeper that I like is the 4- Home Run Kitten. I think with his tactical speed, he should get first run at the leaders. At 15-1 ML, it is tempting.Comment -
Great thread Mr. G and T !
Real good idea.
I hope to participate when I can.
About this race:
Is Baffert going to try and get Midnight Hawk to relax and sit off the lead? Seems that is what he is working towards.
When he breezed him last week he broke off 6 lengths behind early and asked the horse through the lane to finish, which he did.
Looks like the slow first 1/4 in the 4 horse field could have had this guy a head off early. Don't know for sure.
If he catches a flyer out of the gate, forget it but all things being equal, the blks. off and the way he worked him suggests he is going for relax early on . Will be interesting to see.Comment -
Thank you so much for dropping by and the encouragements. I will do my best to keep this thread going. It is hard to enough to cap just one race a day, so hopefully all the great cappers in this forum can chime in with their thoughts.
As to today's Race of the Day, one has to believe that Mike Smith's horse is super live. He has ridden two of the other horses in this race and he is sticking with Midnight Hawk. Baffert is always dangerous with 3 yr old when it comes to stake races. Therefore, the price on Midinight Hawk might be a little to low for me. I am very intrigued with the 4-Home Run Kitten. He comes a sire Kitten's Joy (El Prado) and Grand Slam Girl (Grand Slam); I believe he should be able to take the dirt as well. Also, the place horse (Melatonin) of his last race came back to win a couple of days ago MSW at 6 1/2f. I am curious to see how he runs today. As always, GL everyone and comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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Kind of my point exactly. If they are working for the long haul with the 3 and I must assume they are, today is a " work in progress" towards a bigger prize.Thank you so much for dropping by and the encouragements. I will do my best to keep this thread going. It is hard to enough to cap just one race a day, so hopefully all the great cappers in this forum can chime in with their thoughts.
As to today's Race of the Day, one has to believe that Mike Smith's horse is super live. He has ridden two of the other horses in this race and he is sticking with Midnight Hawk. Baffert is always dangerous with 3 yr old when it comes to stake races. Therefore, the price on Midinight Hawk might be a little to low for me. I am very intrigued with the 4-Home Run Kitten. He comes a sire Kitten's Joy (El Prado) and Grand Slam Girl (Grand Slam); I believe he should be able to take the dirt as well. Also, the place horse (Melatonin) of his last race came back to win a couple of days ago MSW at 6 1/2f. I am curious to see how he runs today. As always, GL everyone and comments and suggestions are always welcome.
Betting "work in progress" horses at short odds is not the way to go IMO. Can he win? Certainly. Will he win? Probably. But... why play with a work in progress at short odds when you can take a flyer on a longer price that is not looking past today. (Maybe glancing) .
I like that type of angle.Comment -
Really don't care much for this race but thinking
chitu is the speed of the speed and will be sent
aggressively to the lead. Love the stat on the dam
that she won her only start in England at 10F on
the grass. This horse is as fast as he is and mom won
first time out at a marathon distance..realize that's the
henny hughes on top but still impressiveComment -
Well, yesterday Race of the Day the winner went to 1- Candy Boy. Were we surprised?? Probably not, he was one of the three that has posted a above 90 Breyer. So what happened to the other horses?? The 7- Chitu bobbled at the start so he did not get the lead that he wanted, but he stayed with the lead. Should be a horse to watch. The 3- Midnight Hawk was pulled between horses (according to DRF results). May be that Smith was trying to get him to relax stalking but the horse may be fighting him? I don't know for sure. As for the 4-Home Run Kitten, I think it was just a bad ride by Talamo, he went inside then back outside, made a move in the middle but was just going all over. I'll be interested to see his next race.
On to today's Race of the Day: GP Donn Handicap race 12
who do we take?? 2- Will Take Charge? 3- Revolutionary? 5- River Seven? 6- Romansh? 8- Lea? With the exception of Will Take Charge who is 9-5 ML, the others are about 4 to 10-1 ML. Can we take WTC @ a short price?? After all, he almost won the Breeders Cup and he beat Game On Dude. I really don't know. Think need to watch the tote. 3-Revolutionary I don't know what to think of him. He won his first race after the layoff @ 1 mile earning 93 Beyer. Pletcher/Castellano combo must respect, but I don't really know what to make of that race. There were only 5 horses and the company was pretty weak. Although the place horse came back and win yesterday, but he was at somewhere around 15-1 and the place horse of that race is huge odds 138-1. So...... I'm gonna take a stab at this race cause don't really like anything. I'm gonna go with the 6- Romansh @ 6-1 @ ML. From the Godophin group that cost them $750k as a yearling, I don't think we have seen the best of him yet. That 110 Beyer from last race just jumps off the page. He ran 1:48 last race going today's distance at Aquaduct. I think that should some merit to that unless he just freaked that day. I know the company was weak, but still 110 Beyer?! Prolly gonna use him with WTC and Revolutionary in some kind of superfecta wager with 4-Neck n Neck and 9- Bourbon Courage in the bottom.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome!!
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As for yesterday, The 3 broke a step slow which would have been perfect for what they were indeed trying to do, which was get Midnight Hawk to take back 3-5 lengths , relax, and point him towards the Derby. Too bad but Hawk would have nothing to do with it. He fought the rider from the gate until finally settling about the 5/8s pole( 1/2 way down the backside) but the damage was done. All that wasted energy proved to be too much as he moved a little into contention and had nothing left for the last 1/4.Well, yesterday Race of the Day the winner went to 1- Candy Boy. Were we surprised?? Probably not, he was one of the three that has posted a above 90 Breyer. So what happened to the other horses?? The 7- Chitu bobbled at the start so he did not get the lead that he wanted, but he stayed with the lead. Should be a horse to watch. The 3- Midnight Hawk was pulled between horses (according to DRF results). May be that Smith was trying to get him to relax stalking but the horse may be fighting him? I don't know for sure. As for the 4-Home Run Kitten, I think it was just a bad ride by Talamo, he went inside then back outside, made a move in the middle but was just going all over. I'll be interested to see his next race.
On to today's Race of the Day: GP Donn Handicap race 12
who do we take?? 2- Will Take Charge? 3- Revolutionary? 5- River Seven? 6- Romansh? 8- Lea? With the exception of Will Take Charge who is 9-5 ML, the others are about 4 to 10-1 ML. Can we take WTC @ a short price?? After all, he almost won the Breeders Cup and he beat Game On Dude. I really don't know. Think need to watch the tote. 3-Revolutionary I don't know what to think of him. He won his first race after the layoff @ 1 mile earning 93 Beyer. Pletcher/Castellano combo must respect, but I don't really know what to make of that race. There were only 5 horses and the company was pretty weak. Although the place horse came back and win yesterday, but he was at somewhere around 15-1 and the place horse of that race is huge odds 138-1. So...... I'm gonna take a stab at this race cause don't really like anything. I'm gonna go with the 6- Romansh @ 6-1 @ ML. From the Godophin group that cost them $750k as a yearling, I don't think we have seen the best of him yet. That 110 Beyer from last race just jumps off the page. He ran 1:48 last race going today's distance at Aquaduct. I think that should some merit to that unless he just freaked that day. I know the company was weak, but still 110 Beyer?! Prolly gonna use him with WTC and Revolutionary in some kind of superfecta wager with 4-Neck n Neck and 9- Bourbon Courage in the bottom.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome!!
So the experiment failed. That is what cost him the race yesterday, that is, his inability or refusal to settle behind horses .
No doubt about it.Comment -
What are the "sheets" telling you?
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He buys through pedigree for speed usually AND yes, it's the way he trains but he really has very little choice in Cal. If you don't have speed out there you are in trouble. It's a different atmosphere out there than it is on the east coast.Comment
