Jbex plays

RN · 03-09-17, 02:58 PM

Oaklawn r2 across on the 7

JBEX · 03-09-17, 05:25 PM

oaklawn

R9 #10 goyle (8-1)

breaking from far outside post again but could see him getting a better (not wide) trip than his last race.. what's just to the inside not so scary.. 3rd of long layoff, nicely spaced races and has hit numbers in first two starts that would get it done in here

JBEX · 03-09-17, 07:13 PM

santa anita R8 #5 silver apples (20-1)

Easy-Rider 66 · 03-09-17, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

santa anita R8 #5 silver apples (20-1)

I did not see this post beforehand but you beat me to the punch by 2 minutes. Posted this shot in the contest thread. Currently at 36/1 off a 20/1 ML 15 minutes out. GL.

JBEX · 03-09-17, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

I did not see this post beforehand but you beat me to the punch by 2 minutes. Posted this shot in the contest thread. Currently at 36/1 off a 20/1 ML 15 minutes out. GL.

I liked the 2 even sprints as a set up to stretch out..good turf sire solid works. .off over 60-1 and gave us a few thrills

JBEX · 03-10-17, 02:01 PM

oaklawn

R2 #11 new lucky penny (6-1)
R4 #7 get paid (5-1)
R5#12 checkmate charlie (5-1)

JBEX · 03-10-17, 02:40 PM

R6 #3 surtap (9-2)
R9 #1 remember the alimo (4-1)

JBEX · 03-10-17, 05:30 PM

santa anita

R7 #5 hot in the city (8-1)

like how she was a neck off at the first call dropped to 2 back 2nd call and won in her debut..even fade in a turf listed stakes race last out and now placed on the dirt for this race..shouldn't be a problem based on her works..cost a good amount relative to minimal dpi on the bottom which is always a positive for me

JBEX · 03-11-17, 10:10 AM

aqueduct

R6 #9 pirate's treasure (4-1)
R9 #6 cespedes (3-1)

gulfstream

R1 #4 talked out (8-1)
R2 #5 successor of fate (15-1)
R5 #3 write in candidate (9-2)

JBEX · 03-11-17, 10:50 AM

R6 #5 beautyofaday (7-2)
R8 #2 quality emperor (9-2)
R10 #2 king mauro (15-1)

JBEX · 03-11-17, 02:01 PM

tampa bay derby R11

#4 no dozing (6-1)

obviously very talented 2yo including a 2nd place finish in the G2 remsen at 9f..kind of like the gradual fade run in the sam davis vs many of these..maybe they didn't want him to give it his all in 3yo debut with 7 weeks off..now back in 4 weeks with solid works including a bullet from 62 at 4f..price will be much better this time around

Easy-Rider 66 · 03-11-17, 02:29 PM

Going with the #6 Beasley in the TB Derby. Lightly raced colt. Think he has a forward move today. GL.

JBEX · 03-11-17, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Going with the #6 Beasley in the TB Derby. Lightly raced colt. Think he has a forward move today. GL.

very competitive race ..yours has done nothing wrong in 3 starts and seems to have that battle in him like his dad

JBEX · 03-11-17, 02:56 PM

santa anita R2 #8 hi heat boy (4-1)

pedigree (win early,turf,dam sw) solid works, trainer that can win at first asking..jock 3/5 riding for d'amato last 60 days

JBEX · 03-11-17, 03:31 PM

R3 #8 infobedad (4-1)

JBEX · 03-11-17, 03:49 PM

R4 #4 cho has zip (30-1)

did nothing in her 2yo debut august at dmr ..2nd career start today..all I have here is a speed, win early pedigree and cost a bunch factoring the pedigree..always feel they bought on appearance when I see this..lots of talent in this field so worth a stab at boxcars

JBEX · 03-11-17, 04:39 PM

R7 #10 bird orr brady (6-1)

5k stud fee (15 now) when they bought this one at auction for ...drum roll. .550k !! dam a winner and has 3 winners from 4 starters but dpi is low so couldn't have been any killers..elite debut sire and dam sire above average ..pedigree all speed...love work pattern 3-6 back on the slow side and really moved last 3 leading up to the race..considering its big cap day have a hunch they want to get their picture taken in front of a big crowd

JBEX · 03-11-17, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

R7 #10 bird orr brady (6-1)

5k stud fee (15 now) when they bought this one at auction for ...drum roll. .550k !! dam a winner and has 3 winners from 4 starters but dpi is low so couldn't have been any killers..elite debut sire and dam sire above average ..pedigree all speed...love work pattern 3-6 back on the slow side and really moved last 3 leading up to the race..considering its big cap day have a hunch they want to get their picture taken in front of a big crowd

there was nothing wrong with what I said but I made a mistake I often make...find something I like and stop looking ..winner was horse just below who had equally
impressive credentials..not saying I would have played the winner instead but would have definitely made me reconsider my choice

JBEX · 03-11-17, 07:23 PM

R11 #7 simmy's temple (30-1)

two similar running lines to his last resulted in wins at 6-1 and 12-1.. the sum of the lengths behind at all 4 calls in the race preceding the 12-1 win was 28.25..the sum in his last race exactly 28.25 which is really amazing..pace an final numbers in the 12-1 win put him in the hunt here

JBEX · 03-12-17, 10:32 PM

parx

R6 #9 luce mia (12-1)
R7 #4 strangers no more(8-1).. #7 i'm sleeping in

mvr

R2 #8 pea diddle (8-1)
R8 #1 indian companion (8-1)

reigle9 · 03-13-17, 09:30 AM

will you be posting today?

i like getting on tvr and throwing away betpoints

luce mia looks good to me

JBEX · 03-13-17, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by reigle9

will you be posting today?

i like getting on tvr and throwing away betpoints

luce mia looks good to me

this will do it for me today.. no additional mvr or prx

sam houston

R2 #4 no guts no glory (8-1)
R4 #7 american valor (4-1)
R5 #3 emperor t (3-1)
R9 #8 fonda carlos (5-2)

all karl broberg and sasha risenhoover (jockey) .. prices won't be great but looks pretty solid today

reigle9 · 03-13-17, 01:19 PM

damn, ok

sbr book doesnt have that track

one of these days that you post a bunch of plays, i want to follow along and see if i can come up with any of the same plays

JBEX · 03-13-17, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

damn, ok

sbr book doesnt have that track

one of these days that you post a bunch of plays, i want to follow along and see if i can come up with any of the same plays

I'm trying to pick my spots more.. that's all I saw at mvr and prx that I really liked so rather not force plays.. I tend to do that too often.. if you ever have a question as to why I like a particular horse ask..some races lend themselves better than others to explanations..sometimes it's kind of just a "soft feel" for lot of little things that make up my strongest opinions

gordan21 · 03-13-17, 05:04 PM

Are these like best bets? How your ROI with these plays?

JBEX · 03-13-17, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by gordan21

Are these like best bets? How your ROI with these plays?

wouldn't call them best bets.. just not trying to force opinions on races I don't care for.. don't keep records as too much of a pain for how often I do this

gordan21 · 03-14-17, 12:45 PM

Ok....Do you have any idea on your win %? Maybe 30%?

Easy-Rider 66 · 03-14-17, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

wouldn't call them best bets.. just not trying to force opinions on races I don't care for.. don't keep records as too much of a pain for how often I do this

Yeah would be a lot of book work to keep records in this thread. But would be interesting to see how you have fared long term. When we did keep records for 300 of your plays you hit at a rate of 92 cents on the dollar. Not bad considering the take out.

gordan21 · 03-14-17, 12:47 PM

Some of them don't say which track your doing?

JBEX · 03-14-17, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by gordan21

Ok....Do you have any idea on your win %? Maybe 30%?

much lower.. I play anything from odds on to triple digits.. If I had to guess mid teens

JBEX · 03-14-17, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Yeah would be a lot of book work to keep records in this thread. But would be interesting to see how you have fared long term. When we did keep records for 300 of your plays you hit at a rate of 92 cents on the dollar. Not bad considering the take out.

you'd need a lot more for a definitive conclusion easy but was at least a little sample

JBEX · 03-14-17, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by gordan21

Some of them don't say which track your doing?

I post some of a card to start off and then go back and do the rest of that track.. if it's consecutive posts or close I may not name the track second post

JBEX · 03-15-17, 09:08 AM

gulfstream

R5 #5 tisbury (4-1)
R6 #5 dietitian michelle (20-1) #4 ss Illuminati (4-1) half
R7 #8 sympatico (12-1) #1 forman the foreman (5-1) half

more later

JBEX · 03-15-17, 10:02 AM

R8 #9 sweet abdication (10-1)
R9 #6 miss jackson (15-1)

another example of horse ml being too high because she just broke her maiden last out.. it's a 3yo so there's no clm 25k n2L condition so this next logical spot.. won impressively from the 12 post last out and gets johnny v who besides being who he is 5-3-0-2 in last 5 starts..

R11 #7 big money machine (5-1)

broke dead last november 5th and returned december 8th (33 days) to miss by a nose closing furiously at 7.5f.. brisnet figure in previous race 76.. back in 33 days today after breaking last.. figure last race 77..distance today extra half furlong from 12/8 @ 1 mile.. lots of similarities

reigle9 · 03-15-17, 10:11 AM

hey, dumb question...do you bet wps for all of these or just win?