Jbex plays

**JBEX** · 07-03-19, 10:35 AM

belmont

R5 #9 our dixie blue (6-1)

not an easy msw field as you have two firsters by uncle mo, whose a great debut sire at the highest levels of competition (#4 and #7).. the latter is owned by bill parcells (fun fact, no capping value).. going to go with my expensive for the pedigree angle here.. by a $3500 stallion out of an unraced mare.. she is 4/4 with her offspring but none were anything special.. consider $120k a lot for this type of horse.. last work a solid 36.2 bg which was 2nd fastest of 40 at the belmont training track on 6/23

R8 #7 quest for fire (9-2)

running 2nd time off a 47 day layoff today ... running 2nd time off a 48 day layoff 2 back at the same level finished 3rd by less than a length with a figure that is much better than these.. last race and the preceding race 3 back were very similar figure-wise, running line and both on sloppy tracks.. rosario riding top of his game and is the best sprint rider on the circuit

woodbine

R8 #4 bella nina (4-1)

**JBEX** · 07-03-19, 03:09 PM

R5

71-1 first time starter with jockey who hasn't had a mount this year and trainer who's 1/46 this year goes with me from the inside for about 2-3 furlongs on the front end.. mine totally collapsed top of the stretch
so not sure would have mattered anyway if he had a clear lead.. of course when these things happen in your favor you don't look back and say man did I get lucky that things set up the way they did.. it was all me

**JBEX** · 07-03-19, 05:29 PM

added woodbine 8

**JBEX** · 07-04-19, 10:14 AM

monmouth

R1 #1 archanova (6-1) jumps
R3 #5 master plan (9-2) jumps

belmont

R2 #4 mathael (7-2)
R6 # 1 shannon's girl (3-1)

arlington

R6 #10 minerunner (20-1) know it's off the turf

los alamitos

R9 #1 mighty elijah (4-1)

**JBEX** · 07-04-19, 02:27 PM

added arlington 6

**JBEX** · 07-04-19, 04:42 PM

added alamitos 9

**JBEX** · 07-05-19, 11:13 AM

belmont

R4 #4 no regrets (9-2)
R6 #3 coileanbawn (15-1)

monmouth

R3 #9 rigged election (7-2)
R4 #5 beaco's disco pants (4-1)
R5 #1 morissette (3-1)
R6 #7 how sweep it is (3-1)

prarie meadows

R7 iowa derby

#5 fluminense (10-1)

R8 cornhusker handicap grade 3

#8 exulting (5-1)

**JBEX** · 07-05-19, 07:05 PM

added prarie meadows 7 8

**JBEX** · 07-06-19, 10:20 AM

belmont

R2 #10 golconda (8-1)
R3 #5 fight on lucy (4-1)
R4 #3 she'sasuperfreak (6-1)
R5 #5 percentage (6-1)*
R5 #8 now is (20-1)*

* 2 horses R5

if sloppy play half.. the big stakes scheduled for the turf (7,9)will not be run on the dirt

R6.. dwyer stakes grade 3

#2 rowayton (3-1)

R7.. belmont oaks grade 1

#1 olendon (9-2)

she just missed in a grade 1 @ same distance last start over in france.. stock over there considered better than the states.. rail has won 3/9 at this distance.. might be a little rain by later this afternoon and softer ground would only help her chances

R8.. john nerud grade 2

#9 do share (7-2)

think #5 could potentially keep ml favorite #9 promises fulfilled (2-1) honest on the front end and set it up nicely for a late run.. has the figures and 7f looks like the perfect distance

R9.. belmont derby invitational grade 1

#1 moon colony (12-1)
#4 english bee (30-1)

think both will be lower and because neither is trained by chad brown you'll probably get a bit of an overlay.. both their trainers are having exceptional meets and the aforementioned chad brown's horses occupy far outside posts right alongside each other

R10.. the suburban.. grade 1

#11 pavel (8-1)

don't think I've ever seen a horse travel as much as he has in at least his last 10 races.. o'neil must have a lot of faith in him to do this as the results have been mediocre at best.. think the line he ran in the met mile sets him up nicely to stretch out and still think he might have a race like the stephen foster which he won last year in him.. that would make him tough in what I consider a field with little depth outside of catholic boy

delaware

R6 kent stakes grade 3

#5 share the blame (10-1)

**JBEX** · 07-06-19, 01:28 PM

finished

**JBEX** · 07-06-19, 02:13 PM

added delaware 6

**JBEX** · 07-07-19, 11:39 AM

belmont

R5 #5 lough na mona (5-1) 555
R7 #1 we should talk (8-1)
R9 #4 mimi and charley (12-1)*
R9 #8 liza jambalaya (8-1)*

* 2 horses

los alamitos

R7 #5 potantico (8-1)

did nothing debut and I'll excuse breaking from the 11 post in a turf route 2nd start...his first route attempt last out very solid try while finishing behind the two likely favorites (6,8) this race.. $200k yearling out of a $4500 stallion but some of that is explained by good production (foals) and a stakes winning mare.. still like the fact that this one cost that much as feel it gives him a better chance to improve off his last race

**JBEX** · 07-07-19, 04:14 PM

added los alamitos 7

**JBEX** · 07-10-19, 10:31 AM

delaware

R5 #5 trust in dianne (4-1)
R6 #5 pep talking (5-1)

done

indiana grande

R1 #3 indian show (15-1)
R2 #2 cha mono (6-1)
R3 #8 private message (5-1)
R4 pass

R6 #9 wild union (4-1)
R7 #2 havenhill (8-1)
R9 #2 marv's magic (15-1)

**JBEX** · 07-10-19, 12:37 PM

finished indiana

**JBEX** · 07-10-19, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

delaware

R5 #5 trust in dianne (4-1)
R6 #5 pep talking (5-1)

done

indiana grande

R1 #3 indian show (15-1)
R2 #2 cha mono (6-1)
R3 #8 private message (5-1)
R4 pass

R6 #9 wild union (4-1)
R7 #2 havenhill (8-1)
R9 #2 marv's magic (15-1)

the one winner I have by a nose @ $10 even.. problem it's R8

try one at woodbine

R4 #8 blezniatka (7-2)

let me just make sure....

yes that's correct

**Seastriper** · 07-10-19, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

the one winner I have by a nose @ $10 even.. problem it's R8

Wasn't home ----> Could of used a good one! LOL

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-12-19, 07:40 AM

You coming in JBEX? SAR? You are DUE to SCORE? GL.

**JBEX** · 07-12-19, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

You coming in JBEX? SAR? You are DUE to SCORE? GL.

let's hope...

saratoga (good or better to play dirt)

R1 #3 derby memories (6-1)

R2 #4 prince of new york (20-1)

scheduled for turf but I'd play on dirt also

R4 #4 kahramani (5-1)

R5 #4 lotta ott (3-1)

expensive for his pedigree.. by a new sire by an all sprint dam sire.. working sharp for asmussen.. reward won't be great but have a hunch this is a live one

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-12-19, 10:54 AM

Track listed as Muddy JBEX. Maybe it upgrades during the day.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-12-19, 11:06 AM

R 3/9 stay on turf right now. Yielding. sod. Some cut in the lawn.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-12-19, 12:03 PM

Track now Rated Fast at SAR. YOu are a go.

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-12-19, 12:05 PM

Good call R1: 12 length romp by the #3. Like I said you are due. LOL

**JBEX** · 07-12-19, 07:27 PM

saratoga

R1 #4 ramblin' ma'am (15-1)
R2 #7 honorable profit (15-1)
R4 #5 vaya con dios (12-1)
R6 #2 decorated invader (4-1)
R8 #1 blahnik (15-1)
R10 #8 hersh (4-1)

**JBEX** · 07-12-19, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

Good call R1: 12 length romp by the #3. Like I said you are due. LOL

thanks

**JBEX** · 07-13-19, 06:03 AM

finished saratoga

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-14-19, 05:50 AM

**JBEX** · 07-14-19, 10:05 AM

saratoga

R1 #10 morning gold (8-1)

horse cost an extraordinary amount of money for his pedigree.. fast workouts spaced a week apart datng all the way back to mid may.. solid trainer who is terrible with debut horses but need a little something to throw the public off..i'll go with the positives and give it a go

R2 #7 passcode (3-1)

R3 #7 bears mafia (8-1)

R4 #1 titan's will (4-1)

R5 #3 retro street (8-1)

R6 #10 dooder (12-1)

broke his maiden first time out as a 2yo doing this (always impressive) up here but that was 2 years ago.. need more and I get it with irad riding.. mclaughlin sensational with 2nd starters under his care and a race under him in a sprint (running line) that I like preceding a stretch out

R8 #9 stellar agent (6-1)

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-14-19, 10:07 AM

GL JBEX. I understand it's a bit chilly (On a poor run myself)in this thread, but give you credit for keep plugging away. See what happens today.

**JBEX** · 07-14-19, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

**JBEX** · 07-14-19, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66

GL JBEX. I understand it's a bit chilly (On a poor run myself)in this thread, but give you credit for keep plugging away. See what happens today.

it's a numbers game.. patience and some luck required with long shots.. think if you have good insight going in (not saying I do.. that's one's own judgment) that's all you can ask.. everyone's got strengths and weakness's with their selection methods in this game and that's just part of it.. if you could hit horses at a rate of 75% of their odds (16-1's once every 13 times) over the long haul you'd make a lot of money but that's really not doable by most.. that's where the high take kills you

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-14-19, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

it's a numbers game.. patience and some luck required with long shots.. think if you have good insight going in (not saying I do.. that's one's own judgment) that's all you can ask.. everyone's got strengths and weakness's with their selection methods in this game and that's just part of it.. if you could hit horses at a rate of 75% of their odds (16-1's once every 13 times) over the long haul you'd make a lot of money but that's really not doable by most.. that's where the high take kills you

Yeah good points. Like sports gambling you can easily go on good/bad runs. I think sometimes when on a bad run you have to be careful not to lose too much confidence. Again GL today and for start of DMR.

**Seastriper** · 07-14-19, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

it's a numbers game.. patience and some luck required with long shots.. think if you have good insight going in (not saying I do.. that's one's own judgment) that's all you can ask.. everyone's got strengths and weakness's with their selection methods in this game and that's just part of it.. if you could hit horses at a rate of 75% of their odds (16-1's once every 13 times) over the long haul you'd make a lot of money but that's really not doable by most.. that's where the high take kills you

<p>
I think of it this way ---> My knowledge is absolute 0 about horses! I rather listen to JBEX knowing there is always a risk. Through the good times and bad; I appreciate all the time you take JBEX in order to provide us your picks. Gambling is gambling and if anyone out there is worried about bad streaks --> they should definitely pick a much SAFER & CHEAPER hobby

lol

**Easy-Rider 66** · 07-14-19, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Seastriper

<p>
I think of it this way ---> My knowledge is absolute 0 about horses! I rather listen to JBEX knowing their is always a risk. Through the good times bad; I appreciate all the time you take JBEX in order to provide us your picks. Gambling is gambling and if anyone out there is worried about bad streaks --> they should definitely pick a much SAFER & CHEAPER hobby

lol

Yeah good deal. But do not forget about Mr. G&T, Harthebar, and occasionally STR when he posts a pick. JBEX is the main, guy but not the only sheriff in town. GL today Seastrper. Ride the hot capper. Jbex will get going again. Also Louisville Kid is a tough capper as well.

**JBEX** · 07-14-19, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Seastriper

<p>
I think of it this way ---> My knowledge is absolute 0 about horses! I rather listen to JBEX knowing their is always a risk. Through the good times bad; I appreciate all the time you take JBEX in order to provide us your picks. Gambling is gambling and if anyone out there is worried about bad streaks --> they should definitely pick a much SAFER & CHEAPER hobby

lol

no problem sea striper.. appreciate the good word ..this game (especially saratoga) can humble anyone
and never feel i'm terrific on a good spell or terrible on a bad one