*HBD PICKS* BGboothA's Road to Kentucky

[BGboothA]

Tam r10

wps #5 4/12/24

Won way to easily...wasn't even close.

+$24.80

[BGboothA]

Hou r8
$10 win #3 roy lake

-$10

+14.8 today

[BGboothA]

GP R10
$10 ExBox
4,9

[Easy-Rider 66]

GP Race 10 Taking a shot with the 6. Also have the 5.

[BGboothA]

GP Race 10 Taking a shot with the 6. Also have the 5.

I like the 5 here, I just really don't like the price on him at this point. I have him fair odds around 6-1 or so. right now he is sitting at 2-1. Just don't think its there. The value here is in the 9 IMO I have the 9 @ even money fair line odds. And we are getting 5/8 here.

[BGboothA]

GP Race 10 Taking a shot with the 6. Also have the 5.

Nice hit with the 5.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice hit with the 5.

Thx. But did not win much, as I was really wanting the 6 to win.

[BGboothA]

SA R06 (turf downhill)
#9 TRIBAL DUDE

4/12/24 WPS $4

[BGboothA]

SA R06 (turf downhill)
#9 TRIBAL DUDE

4/12/24 WPS $4

Ran a nice 2nd.... +22.40

[BGboothA]

Gg r06
#6 dashing

wps 4/12/24

[BGboothA]

Gg r06
#6 dashing

wps 4/12/24

Another 2nd place run.... +15.20

up 42.40 for the day.

[BGboothA]

SA R07
#6 PRIME NUMBER

WPS 4/12/24 (Conditional @ 2-1)

[BGboothA]

SA R07
#6 PRIME NUMBER

WPS 4/12/24 (Conditional @ 2-1)

Wow something was wrong with that horse...he looked horrible.....

[BGboothA]

GG R07

$20 WIN #4 (Conditional 6-5)

[BGboothA]

GG R07

$20 WIN #4 (Conditional 6-5)

Lost but went off at 1-1 so no bet from me....Whew!

[DDT]

I hit a 10 cent Super at Fair Grounds with the picks...too bad it only paid $6. The heavy favorite winning screwed my payout

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Monday 03/04/2013


We ran 5 tracks for Monday

[xelemental]

give me some good winners BGbootha.

I bet on Houtson #5 on horse 11 according to your sheets. Went big on SHOW and lost...

[BGboothA]

Sorry X,

We take Tuesday's off, no sheets today. And bummer luck on that race at HOU. Sometimes we the statue sometimes we the pigeon. In this game its just about being the pigeon more often.

My advice is don't go big on anything, its a grind. I went back and looked at that race, and found no reason why not to bet the 11. Looks like he ran 5th

[DDT]

Sorry X,

We take Tuesday's off, no sheets today. And bummer luck on that race at HOU. Sometimes we the statue sometimes we the pigeon. In this game its just about being the pigeon more often.

My advice is don't go big on anything, its a grind. I went back and looked at that race, and found no reason why not to bet the 11. Looks like he ran 5th

It is definitely a marathon

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Wednesday 03/06/2013


We ran 8 tracks for Wednesday

[mrginandtonic]

BG, question for you on your system. Race 9 from Gulfstream ( free PP from DRF), I was looking at this race and had a few questions. You had 10/7/5-6. The 10 is for main track only, and this race is on turf. Therefore, most likely he will be scratched. The next pick is the 7 which is 15-1 ML, and this is the one I have a hard time understanding. Why your system gave it as a top pick?? Thanks in advance

[BGboothA]

BG, question for you on your system. Race 9 from Gulfstream ( free PP from DRF), I was looking at this race and had a few questions. You had 10/7/5-6. The 10 is for main track only, and this race is on turf. Therefore, most likely he will be scratched. The next pick is the 7 which is 15-1 ML, and this is the one I have a hard time understanding. Why your system gave it as a top pick?? Thanks in advance

MrGin,

First off the Main-Track only designation is something we are working hard to try to figure out. But I am struggling to write the code to deal with this aspect of the PP. However, we are able to write into the sheet the likelyhood of the 10 being scratched (as you already said) so its kinda of a band-aid. With the scratch of the 10, the 7 looks to be the lone speed of the race. Although it is rate as a "P" style horse, it has shown in the past the ability to run a nice E1 and E2 pace, setting up a possible WIRE finish here.

Some caution its a turf race, meaning lone speed does not have the same effect as it does on Dirt.

I actually like the #6 here SAMMY ALEXANDER who is 8-1 coming over from GB. We have very little data on this horse, but what we do have points toward a good race.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Thursday 03/07/2013


We ran 7 tracks for Thursday

[BGboothA]

MrGin,

First off the Main-Track only designation is something we are working hard to try to figure out. But I am struggling to write the code to deal with this aspect of the PP. However, we are able to write into the sheet the likelyhood of the 10 being scratched (as you already said) so its kinda of a band-aid. With the scratch of the 10, the 7 looks to be the lone speed of the race. Although it is rate as a "P" style horse, it has shown in the past the ability to run a nice E1 and E2 pace, setting up a possible WIRE finish here.

Some caution its a turf race, meaning lone speed does not have the same effect as it does on Dirt.

I actually like the #6 here SAMMY ALEXANDER who is 8-1 coming over from GB. We have very little data on this horse, but what we do have points toward a good race.

What a weird race, the 7 went off at 50-1, jumped to the front like I thought he would, but didn't press any kind of pace like I hoped he would. They went 24.67 / 48.92 with the 7 in the lead. Would have liked to see the jockey press that horse a bit mroe early with no one wanting to run. Coming around the corner, the 6 looked good for the win at 6-1 until the 2 came flying on the rail to win by half a length.

I stand by the sheet on this race, with the scracth of the 10 we had the 7/5-6-2. It came 2-6-1. THe 6 that I really liked (and bet WPS ladder on) finished second and paid a decent 6.40/5.60 and gave me a nice profit of $32.80 on y $20 ladder.

[mrginandtonic]

First, thanks for your feedback and I really appreciated it. I was busy at work and didn't get a chance replay and also didn't see the race.

Now, for that race, I liked the 6 just like you did. I also liked the 3 cause I thought that horse returning to Alan Garcia at the iron would get the horse to front more (I too thought there is not much pace in this race) and give it a better ride. Same as your 7, he was 15-1 ML. Guess he had nothing left. I played the 3 and 6 to win only, and bet the tirfecta with 6-1-4 straight. How I wish the 2 didn't run a step, I woulda hit it big. Also, I had the late DD 3/6 with 6. I got the 6 in the 10th race from your sheet. If the 2 didn't win the 9th, I woulda hit the DD too. With all that said, I need to thank you for saving my day. I bet 6 in the 10th race to win and basically got all my money back for today and some. Thank you again. You da man!! You and Mike and Harthebar are just awesome!!

[xelemental]

Here are the files for Thursday 03/07/2013



We ran 7 tracks for Thursday

Hey BG,

WHat kind of bets do you usually do with your sheets?

I've been playing Show bets and I realized sometimes thats too conservative. I only played 2 horses today in SA. The ones where you were 100% A confident in. Bet Show on the ones you thought were gonna be first. I did a show bet. Won both. one of them was risk 30 to win 3, and risk 30 to win 21.

Up $24.00 Works for me!! Thanks buddy! Still down hope to make it up this weekend. hahah

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Friday 03/08/2013



We ran 10 tracks for Thursday

[BGboothA]

Hey BG,

WHat kind of bets do you usually do with your sheets?

I've been playing Show bets and I realized sometimes thats too conservative. I only played 2 horses today in SA. The ones where you were 100% A confident in. Bet Show on the ones you thought were gonna be first. I did a show bet. Won both. one of them was risk 30 to win 3, and risk 30 to win 21.

Up $24.00 Works for me!! Thanks buddy! Still down hope to make it up this weekend. hahah

I am not sure how to answer the question. I play my bets all different kinds of ways, my focus is on value. The majority of my bets are exacta's and WPS ladders. I would say that makes up about 80% of my bets. I play trifectas, I play pick3s and pick4s, I play doubles. I play Place bets and Show bets. I play whatever I think gives me the most value in a race or a set of races.

I know show bets seem like a safe bet, but it takes a great deal of knowledge and practice to find value in teh show pools. You have to calculate it yourself and realize the odds change. There is no point in betting into a show pool if your think the favorite has a good chance of showing as well. As it will deplete your winnings.

My advice is to stay with win bets. Bet small. You will find more value and learn more about racing making small win bets than you will making bigger show bets.

- Start creating your own odds. If horse X is Y odds or better I think its a plus bet. Find those plus bets and make your plays there.

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Saturday 03/09/2013



Horse season is in full swing, and now SO ARE WE!!!!!

Ran 16 tracks for Saturday!!!!

[DDT]

[befus]

[balls2wall]

thanks BG

BOL all

[BGboothA]

Here are the files for Sunday 03/10/2013


Horse season is in full swing, and now SO ARE WE!!!!! Today was a great day for us, three digit profit today. Can't argue with that! Hoping for another good day tomorrow.

Ran 11 tracks for Sunday!!!!

[xelemental]

BG, I was looking at your Mountaineer and Delta Downs for march 9th. can you repost? lol