Goodluck with your plays tonight Sawyer
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Man, that large post rules... You are kind of rational-optimistic
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I'm a system-based flat-staking handicapper in other sports (rugby, soccer, tennis) but since moving to Canada i've found that NHL is good for betting opportunities. I tip regularly on another website that demands reasoning and responsible tips and thats because the serious (and mostly successful) bettors don't incite emotion with 'lock' style proclamations.
I follow and really admire your work Sawyer and others do too. Lets all learn to be automatic, develop systems, and take the hot air and emotion out of our picks. This thread is all the evidence you need to see that it's the only way to go for long term sustained profit, whether a unit to you is $1 or $10,000. Every style is different but the winners have a lot in common.
Thanks again for the great work and keep it up!
First time poster but long time reader. This forum has a lot of decent people on it all looking to beat the bookie so lets save our wrath for them!Comment -
Post of the year
Guys, Do You Know Your Real Enemy? LVSC? Bookie? Betting Public? Brandon Lang? IRS? No. It's YOU! That's right. In sports betting, your biggest enemy is yourself. Emotions..enemy. Greed..is your enemy. These are dangerous feelings. May destroy your bankroll even in one day.. I don't say it's an universal truth; it's just my opinion. There may be cappers who are doing fine with gutfeeling, but not me. In my opinion, We must BET LIKE A ROBOT! That's right. Zero emotions. Betting like a robot. 
Hi. My name is R2D2. Pick Colorado +120 tonight. A friend of mine says he got 2 bets for today. Fine. He goes 0-2 and he places another wager on 10 AM baseball game. WTF? If you were 2-0, would you still make this bet? No, he says. Don't chase your loses. Don't try to get breakeven for the day. There may be much better games tomorrow. Guys, sports betting is a tough job if you're capping games with gutfeeling. Why I like betting like a robot? Because you avoid all emotions. Maybe, you had a discussion with your wife and you're not in a good mood. You had a bad day at office. Maybe you lost your cat/dog. You learned Becky Hammon is married (hopefully not). These things may effect your mind. These things may effect your handicapping, your decisions. But if your selections are based on a system/handicapping model (or some rules), these "bad" things won't matter. They won't effect your picks.. Let the numbers do the work. The best thing about following a handicapping model/system is, you never ask yourself which bet you should take. All picks are clear. Let's say you're capping games and making your selections with gutfeeling, because you liked it, because Halladay is invincible etc. You like 6 games on board. But you don't feel too confident (emotions again) about all of them. So you bet 3 of them. You go 1-2. Other 3 picks you didn't picked go 3-0. It happens. Bets that you don't pick usually win, Strange but true. You blame yourself for picking Lakers, you say why I didn't picked Boston. Emotions again.. 
It can be frustrating..specially when you're on a losing streak. We, sports bettors are very streaky in nature. Do you know why? It's related with psychology. During a glorious winning streak, you feel yourself invincible. Positive Energy, Yeah! You make better predictions, better analysis..and you keep winning! Becase your expectations are also positive. Everything you touch turns to gold. On the other side, when you're on a losing streak, you may lose your confidence..It effects your decisions, your picks. You're cold as ice. You may not make healthy decisions. After a disastrous streak, you may even don't want to make picks.. Conclusion 
Developping a handicapping model or a betting system is not the whole thing. You gotta stick with it! Remember, zero emotions. Believe me, sticking with your system/model is harder then developping it! Seriously.. Greed is not good. Greed is evil. Patience is golden. Patience is the key. Make sure you got these four elements.. * Patience * Discipline * Bankroll * A Plan (Handicapping Model/System) And numbers will take care of the rest. I wish you all a profitable season. Take care, Sawyer
Wish I could adhere to these rules all the time 
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I am loving Montreal ML for tonight. We always do good vs Vancouver at home:Comment -
Sawyer
Are those in confidence order?
or just backwards time orderComment -
guys here
is the times of games and who they play
Dallas +177 vs. San Jose 1035 eastern time
Colorado +120 vs. Flames 905 eastern
Anaheim +165 vs. Blues 805 eastern
Phoenix +140 vs. Red Wings 735 eastern
Montreal +122 vs. Canucks 735 eastern
Columbus +105 vs. Predators 705 eastern
Tampa Bay +142 vs. rangers 705 eastern
NY Islanders +130 vs. blackhawks 705 eastern
Chicago vs NY Islanders Over 5½ -117 705 eastern
hope that helpsComment -
Good job sawyer! Like that long post. Very good points. GL today!
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This is good advice, the most a posted play should do is bring your attention to a situation. Its up to you to do the research to see if you should pull the trigger. Tailing blind hardly ever works long time (not that there are not some great cappers on this board).
Also, Sawyer's post about betting emotionless is great. A tip I have is always look twice as hard when you are betting for or against your favorite team. Yes, I said even while betting against. We can all get angry or desperate when it comes to our favorite teams, thinking they are worse than they are. I still make this mistake occasionally (especially when it involves the White Sox or Hawks) but I made it all the time when I first started betting.
I tend to like flat-betting as well, but can be flexible if I really really like the play.Comment -
No joke boss I tailed all 9, go all outtComment -
I think they win tonight, but I am thinking about staying away from it. There is too much going on with the team right now, I have no idea how to read them. They look great one night and terrible the next. I think Emery is really going to start challenging Crawford though. We could see yet another goalie controversy which have become the norm with the Hawks.
Your work is right near where my mom was born, my family comes from the South Side, she moved to Rockford when she married my dad.Comment -
I'm praying for a HUGE night tonight!Comment -
Let's pray together for all Iron DOGS
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Sawyer,Dear NHL Capper,
Why not open your own thread?
I'm up +28 Units (1 Unit Each Play) so far this season in NHL and all my plays are posted/documented here in SBR. I'm looking over the long haul, not short term. Not interested in daily results really..
I always appreciate people who share their comments/opinions in my thread but what you doing is something completely different. This is my Iron Dogs' thread; if you want to keep a track of your plays, you can open your own thread. You're annoying. There's a fight/discussion in every thread you're in. Look here..
How old are you? Please act like a man. Nobody wants you here. Why still insist?
I wish you a profitable season. Take care.
Best Regards,
Sawyer
Been watching you for a while, never chimed in, just watching and appreciating. I like how you do things and I think this response is PURE CLASS and one of the best posts I've read on here in a long time, that and your long post laying out some very insightful information, well said!!!
Keep up the solid work in both your capping and dealing with trolls, solid work, very solid work indeed. Good luck tonight & the rest of the season
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I wish you luck, but I don't like the Phoenix or Dallas plays. I think the Islanders play is the best of your selections. +135 at home versus a struggling Emery. I have to cheer against your Phoenix play as I took Detroit 3way, but good luck on the other 7
I can't pass up -102 for Detroit at home versus a team they've owned.
"You don't have a gambling problem...you have a LOSING problem!"Comment -
I wish you luck, but I don't like the Phoenix or Dallas plays. I think the Islanders play is the best of your selections. +135 at home versus a struggling Emery. I have to cheer against your Phoenix play as I took Detroit 3way, but good luck on the other 7 I can't pass up -102 for Detroit at home versus a team they've owned.
Emery isn't struggling, he has looked very good his last few starts. He earned this start tonight. He just isn't a very good shootout goalie. Your avatar looks like its the Hawks Ice Crew, so I am assuming you watch the games.Comment -
great job mike smith! 2 sog, 2 goals!.. lol well get it backComment -
Tampa in OT hopefully they can win unlike the Islanders a min agoComment -
Columbus blow it in OT as well
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dam blue jackets
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Tampa pulls it off in OT finally were 1 for 3 now in OTComment -
and now Montreal gives up a goal with 5min left looks like everyone wants to play in OT tonight
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OT happens a lot with these Iron Dogs.Comment -
damn tom sawyer, gutsy betting all these dogs on a day.. i took each one for 1/4 unit just because i dont like going through games and just picking underdogs. With that said, I absolutely LOVE when you pick 1-3 games i get on those sometimes as my biggest bet of the night.. I'll be looking forward tomorrow sir, have a good nightComment -
sawyer whats your record on the totals? or is that part of the iron dog record?Comment -
Dallas +177 vs. San Jose 1035 eastern time LOSS
Colorado +120 vs. Flames 905 eastern LOSS
Anaheim +165 vs. Blues 805 eastern LOSS
Phoenix +140 vs. Red Wings 735 eastern LOSS
Montreal +122 vs. Canucks 735 eastern LOSS
Columbus +105 vs. Predators 705 eastern LOSS
Tampa Bay +142 vs. rangers 705 eastern WIN, barely
NY Islanders +130 vs. blackhawks 705 eastern LOSS
Chicago vs NY Islanders Over 5½ -117 705 eastern LOSS
Listen, I like you Sawyer, I do, but I hate the trolls. A lot of people probably lost a lot of money on your plays tonight, but oh well. I like betting dogs too, but I just don't pick every dog on the board and hope for the best. GL man this is the last time i will post in your thread. I will open a new thread and post a few picks there. GL in the future.Comment -
^ dude give it a rest. bad night. it happens to everyone. i'm sure he'll bounce back.Comment -
Tough day, brudda. Good thing you're a winner and you think long-term.
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columbus was a brutal bad beat....harshComment -
Rough night
Thats why its a long term strategy. Looking forward to more picks and insights.Comment -
You're just sad man ... I bet you prayed all day for this to happen so you can trash talk more.
You wrote "Win, barely" to a OT win, but where are the "Loss, barely" ?? Just shows how biased you are.
I looked through your recent post history and here are some of them:
"You're an idiot", "You're all such big losers in life and gambling you have to laugh at the guy? I hope you all rot in hell, bad karma on you.", "lol u mad whop?", " I don't have to explain NHL analytics to you peasants.", "You're the pathetic loser that cries like a little bitch",
I don't care if you also have good posts, a pro capper doesn't waste his time flaming other people on forums. This is something a 15yo would do.Comment
