I didn't like either one tonight. If it was in Philly, I'd feel confident about the Flyers over 30.5. Boston at 31.5 looks like an under, but I honestly think if Boston doesn't pound the goal with pucks - they have no shot in hell. They need to be volume shooters and hope something trickles in.
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Updated Record: 18-11-3 [+5.30]Comment -
Play #34: Blackhawks SERIES Over Sharks [-106]
Two very evenly matched clubs in the Western Conference Finals. Both have potent offenses with multiple lines that can score goals. Chicago had the 3rd best scoring team in the NHL at 3.33 goals per contest. San Jose was 7th at 3.09. Both were very solid killing penalties, ranking in the Top 5 in the league. Chicago won the regular season series 3-1 with two wins in San Jose. Evgeni Nabokov came up big in the finale of the Detroit series, but prior to that the Sharks and their goaltender had issues stopping the opposition from scoring as the Red Wings had tallied 3 goals or better in the first four games of the series. The Blackhawks have been pretty solid with Niemi in goal, having responded well during the playoffs when they've played poorly in one game to being solid in the next. Both teams will be hungry here since the Sharks still carry the stigma of chokers and Chicago made it to this point last year before Detroit beat them in 5. I think this is the time the young Blackhawks need to show they learned something last year and use that experience to their benefit.
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Play #35: [Game 1] Canadiens-Flyers OVER 5 [-127]
Four meetings in the regular seasons saw this number beaten twice. The interesting thing of course is that we now have goalies in Halak & Leighton who no one could have predicted would be one step away from being the Stanley Cup finals. Halak saw action against the Flyers twice, shutting them out 1-0 and getting crushed for 5 goals in 17 shots in the other game. Leighton started twice against Montreal, giving up two goals in each start. The Habs come into this full of confidence and with their offense perhaps looking the best it has all postseason with 13 goals in their last four games. Philadelphia also hit on all cylinders in the final four games of their rally, netting 15 goals in that span. In 5 home games in the playoffs, the Flyers totals have hit at least five goals in 4 of 5. Leighton was able to get his feet wet with two starts, giving up four goals. Halak has been steady all postseason since being handed the reigns as the starter, still the Pens scored at least two goals in 6 of the 7 games in that series. The Flyers may not be as potent as Pittsburgh, but the Flyers have scored two goals or more in 11 of their 12 postseason games. Montreal has also done a good job scoring at least two in 11 of 14 playoff games and in 7 of 8 on the road. Montreal came out a bit flat in Game 1 in Pittsburgh after their emotional series against the Caps. They're in a similar mode here, but so are the Flyers. I think with both teams coming in off an emotional high, there could be some breakdowns tonight and for me that smells like a PUSH at worst or one of these teams coming out with a big performance to win. Lady Luck is tuning her licker.
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Updated Record: 19-11-3 [+6.30]Comment -
*This is Play #35, my math skills blow**
Play #35: [Game 2]: Canadiens Total Shots On Goal UNDER 28.5 [-115]
Montreal has commented after Game 1 that they need to find better quality shots, not just fire a quantity of shots at Michael Leighton. Even saying that, they still had just 28 shots on goal and have had 28 or less 8 of their last 10 in the postseason. Overall in the playoffs, Montreal has only had 29 shots or more in 3 of their 15 postseason games and one of those was due to overtime. Maybe not coincidentally, the three times that Montreal has tallied 30 shots or better, they have lost - so the quality over quantity argument seems to have merit. Philadelphia has held Montreal to 28 shots or less in all five meetings counting the regular season and Game 1. Lick away Lady Luck and keep that shot total low just like your jeans.
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What's awesome is that of the 4 times now when they're going to put up 29 shots, I've bet UNDER twice.
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Play #36: [Game 3] Michael Cammalleri Total Shots on Goal OVER 3 [-125]
The Habs leading goal scorer in the playoffs needs to be more active if Montreal is going to contend in this game. Cammalleri has had his issues with shots on the road in the playoffs with just 28 in 10 road games and 9 of those came in one game at Pittsburgh. At home however, he has seemed more comfortable throwing the puck at the net. Cammalleri has 25 shots on goal at home in 6 games. He has had at least three shots on goal in each home playoff game with a low of three shots taken. The Flyers have made a point of keeping an eye on Cammalleri who was a star in both the Habs' earlier series. He did squeeze off four shots last game and will need to be one of the guys gunning for the net tonight if Montreal is to break their goal scoring drought. At home, I like Cammalleri to pepper enough shots in to work the OVER here. Lady Luck, bite me, lick me, whatever you wish so long as you lead me to the pay window baby! Sacrifice.
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What's your take on the over/under for the game??
Good luck for tonight
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Updated Record: 19-12-4 [+5.15]
Would have been on the wrong side of guessing on the total as I liked the under. Go the push for the prop tonight, better than a loss.
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Play #37: [Game 4] Sharks-Blackhawks OVER 5.5 [-110]
Chicago scored four times in Game 2 on just 22 shots, not great numbers if you're the Sharks. Chicago has now scored 4 goals or more in their last 6 playoff games. The Sharks can take solace though that Chicago has laid some eggs at home this postseason, allowing 11 goals in three home games to Vancouver and 8 in three games to Nashville. San Jose netted three goals in each of their regular season visits to Chicago in 2009-2010 and have a good track record of scoring goals there in the past couple seasons. San Jose has no choice but to take it up a notch on offense I think. Power plays could be huge tonight. There have only been 10 in the series, but three goals have been scored in those chances. Lick on Lady Luck.
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Play #38: [Game 4] Canadiens Total Shots On Goal OVER 28.5 [-115]
I'm not sure if Montreal has turned over a new leaf or not, but they have put up 28, 30 & 38 shots on goal now in the first three games of this series after struggling to get enough shots more often than not in rounds 1 & 2. The Canadiens have now had double digit shot totals in 7 of the 10 periods in this series. The Habs really used their speed to their advantage in Game 3 and if they can continue to do that and work the power play for additional shots, I think Montreal has another shot to get upwards of 30 shots on goal or better.
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Updated Record: 20-14-4 [+3.90]
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Play #39: [Game 5] Canadiens-Flyers 1st Period UNDER 1.5 [-135]
With the exception of the game in which the Canadiens actually scored, all the first periods in this series have featured one or no goals. Of the 8 meetings between these two in the regular season and post-season, just two have had multiple goals in the 1st period. Montreal had little or no offensive energy in Game 4 and while they will likely come out humming in an elimination game, expect the Flyers to hit hard again and try to negate Montreal's speed as they've done in the three wins in this series. Lady Luck, lick me. I summon the Hockey MILF.
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Hilarious
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