EP36's Light The Lamp: Postseason Edition

phxcoyotes · 04-13-10, 05:09 PM

lets go yotes

EaglesPhan36 · 04-13-10, 07:26 PM

Play #2: Bruins SERIES over Sabres [+150]
Looking back to 2005, at least one division winner has chumped out in the 1st round of the playoffs. That leaves Washington, New Jersey & Buffalo in the East. San Jose, Chicago & Vancouver in the West. I side with Boston here as they did something pretty substantial this season, they beat Buffalo twice in Buffalo. That is something they had not done with regularity over the past few years. Prior to this season's three meetings in Buffalo, Boston had won just three times in their last 15 trips prior to Buffalo. They won the season series 4-2. This figures to be a gritty series and young goalie Tuukka Rask could make a name for himself here. He's 4-1 in 5 starts vs. BOS with a 1.43 GAA. Here's to you Lady Luck, suckin' my ...

EaglesPhan36 · 04-14-10, 11:42 PM

Well spot on for pick #1. PUSH is the result.

brumbies · 04-15-10, 03:59 AM

Why aren't you posting your soccer record in your signature anymore?

EaglesPhan36 · 04-15-10, 09:05 AM

Haven't had any record posted in my signature for a long time. Always posted in my threads only. I quit making soccer picks for awhile also.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-15-10, 02:27 PM

Play #3: [Game 1] Boston +1 [-130]

Four of the six meetings between Boston and Buffalo have been decided by one goal. All three games in Buffalo in the regular season fit that bill. Made the point in taking Boston for the series that they have the goods to win in Buffalo, but I will take the conservative approach here for Game 1. This should be a smashmouth low scoring series with Boston not possessing great offense and often relying on goal tending and defense to win. In their 20 losses on the road this season, 16 were one goal losses. So if they do fall short tonight, chances are it's a single goal and a push at worst. If they win, then Lady Luck flashed us with her magnificent cans and we can all enjoy the view.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-15-10, 09:04 PM

Spot on #2. Pushmaster.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-16-10, 04:26 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 0-0-2 [+0.00]

PLAY #4: [Game 2] Penguins Total Shots On Goal OVER 29.5 [-115]
Expecting the Pens to come out with some fire tonight after falling flat in the opener of this series with just 21 shots on goal. They should feel like they can score 10 goals since they put 4 of those 21 in the net. Prior to Game 1, the Penguins had put up at least 30 shots on goal in 7 of their last 9. Against Ottawa this past season, they had put up over 30 shots in each home meeting where they averaged almost 33 shots per game this season. Ottawa yielded an average of almost 29 shots per game this season and almost 30 on the road. No more sister kissing tonight with the push. Tonight we feast on a win.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-16-10, 08:35 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 1-0-2 [+1.00]

Penguins get 31 shots and I bust my Stanley Cup Playoffs cherry finally getting off the pushes.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-10, 10:42 AM

Play #5: [Game 2] Bruins Total Shots on Goal OVER 30.5 [-115]
I had not paid enough attention to the quantity of shots that Boston is putting up. The Bruins have put up at least 31 shots on goal in 6 of the 7 meetings with Buffalo this season and that includes 36 in Game 1. On the season, they average right around 32 shots on goal per game. In their last 10, they put up 31 or more in 8 of 10 with the other two at 30 shots. The Sabres allow a high volume of shots as well with an average of just over 31 on the season. 8 of their last 9 have featured the opposition getting at least 30 shots on goal with just two of those nine falling short of today's prop. Boston put up an amazing 24 shots on goal in the 2nd period in Game 1. That has to be part of the plan for Game 2, continue to be aggressive because they have trouble finishing and the only way they figure to score is to continue to put up a high volume of shots and hope a few get by Ryan Miller. In Game 2, Boston should start the shot parade faster in the 1st period or at least they need to if they want a chance to win. I loved the taste of Lady Luck's lips last night, so this afternoon we go back for seconds.

vmchockey · 04-17-10, 02:48 PM

Boston sat at 30 shots for like 8 minutes of play...

EaglesPhan36 · 04-17-10, 03:47 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 2-0-2 [+2.00]

No kidding, I thought for sure that it was screwed when they yanked Miller with about a minute and a half to go. Knew the only way to win was for their to get an empty netter and low & behold, they friggin' got it! Big win too for the Bruins to even the series and keep that series bet in decent shape heading back to Boston. If they set the number around the same for Game 3, I'll probably hit it again ... they should have been in the mid 30s without that dry spell when I think they sat back a little too much with the lead.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 12:39 PM

Play #6: [Game 3] Coyotes Total Shots on Goal OVER 28.5 [-115]
Another one where if you haven't paid attention, you wouldn't think about it. But let's crunch the numbers here. In six meetings this season with the Red Wings [including the playoffs], the Coyotes have hit 29 or more shots on goal in all six games. The Coyotes have averaged just over 30 shots on goal per game this season, but against Detroit that number is at 34 shots per game. Detroit has averaged giving up 29.5 shots on goal per game and a shot lower than that at home. The Coyotes have also hit for at least 29 shots on goal in 9 of their last 10.

doubleleg · 04-18-10, 01:53 PM

good stuff.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 04:03 PM

Play #7: [Game 3] Devils-Flyers OVER 5 [-107]
Interesting to me that the books decided to go with the 5 goal total as soon as this series started after not placing the total below 5.5 in all the regular season meetings between these two clubs. In fact, these two games so far were the only games all season involving the Flyers that had a total that low. That to me indicates the books are expecting Brodeur to be the big factor and keep the scoring low. However, if you look at the now 8 meetings between the two this season, just Game 1 featured a final of less than 5 goals. Sure, four of the games ended right on 5, but the other three finished clear and good for an OVER. In the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia, the final tally has found 5 or better in 8 of 10 and in six straight over the past two seasons. Brodeur has not been at his best in Philly, allowing 11 goals in the three games there this season. And dating back through last season, Brodeur has allowed at least three goals in five straight on the road vs. the Flyers. After a solid Game 1, Boucher and the defense were broken down for 4 goals plus the empty netter in Game 2. Boucher though was a half goal better in his GAA average at home this season vs. the road, so you could expect him to be a bit better. It will be interesting though to see how the game goes if New Jersey can get to him early. If they do his confidence could take another hit and this one should have a legit shot to clear 5. Interesting to note that since Boucher took over as "the guy" in Philly down the stretch, he's made 15 starts with 9 of them involving 5 goals or more.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 04:35 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 3-0-2 [+3.00]

'Yotes with 30-plus shots now.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 07:39 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 3-0-3 [+3.00]

Back to the sister kissin' push. Oh well, took the shot and it was better than having to hang on to an UNDER.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 11:21 PM

Play #8: [Game 3 IN-PLAY] San Jose [-140]
This is like sitting on the beach and watching a tsunami rolling in on you and deciding not to move. The Sharks have blistered 50 shots on Craig Anderson, but have not finished one yet. The Avalanche have mustered just seven shots in the last two periods. This is going to be a demoralizing loss for one of these teams - either the top seed for getting up an epic number of shots and losing in OT or the Avalanche for wasting one of the best goal tending performances in recent memory. I know it only takes one mistake and could go either way, but the Sharks are pummeling Colorado and the Avs have taken some dumb penalties too. If they give San Jose another power play in over time, book it. I'll pay to be wrong here, but I think the Sharks are going to continue to pound the puck at Anderson and hope to get a rebound in.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-18-10, 11:26 PM

I lost money on that, but that was bar none the most hilarious finish. Colorado is so bad they can't even put the puck in the net, but the Sharks are so cursed they can do it for them.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-10, 05:01 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 3-1-3 [+1.60]

Play #9: [Game 3] Capitals-Canadiens OVER 5.5 [-135]
Hard to go against the grain and expect the total to fall under 6. Even Game 1 that finished 3-2 in OT featured 85 shots on goal and if you give me that many with one of those teams being the best offensive club in the NHL, I'll take my chances that there are at least 6 goals. Start with the Caps whose offense awoke just in time to avoid a 2-0 hole with Ovechkin being the KingPin. He'll need to bring his energy to Game 3 to get Washington started correct. Add in that the Caps are talking about using Theodore & Varlamov and you have to wonder if they aren't already preparing for one of them to suck in net again. Montreal should be confident after tallying 5 goals in just 24 shots and now returning home where they averaged a couple more shots per game than their regular season average. Both regular season meetings in Montreal hit for 7 goals or better. Consider that in Washington's last 11 road tilts which dates back to their last meeting against the Habs, they gave up at least three goals in 8 of 11 and the offense did its part to keep up with the faulty defense/goal tending with at least 3 goals in 10 of those 11. I'll pay the chalk to get that half goal difference instead of 6. I give Lady Luck two sacrificial hotties.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-19-10, 09:05 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 4-1-3 [+2.60]

Half goal + two hot chicks = ca$h.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-20-10, 03:55 PM

Play #10: [Game 4] Red Wings Total Shots on Goal OVER 32.5 [-145]
Detroit should be riding on tilt tonight, not wanting to dig itself into a 3-1 deficit. For me, that means the Red Wings will be throwing the kitchen sink at Bryzgalov and the Coyotes defense. The Red Wings have eclipsed this shot total in 4 of the 7 meetings between the two teams and in 2 of 3 in the series. They fell just short at 31 shots last game. At home, this is a shot generating unit that puts up almost 34 per game - whereas the Coyotes only give up just below 31 per game on the road. There's been a lot of talk in the Red Wings camp since Game 3 about getting to loose offensive rebounds and that they believe there are plenty of them. Having put up 40, 39 & 31 shots in Games 1-3 ... if they find some of those loose pucks for second shots, they'll get into the mid 30s shot-wise tonight. Remember, this is an early start too [6:30pm ET]. Lady Luck says what the puck! Let's crank those shots out and give Lady Luck a little lick on her lucky spot with the following sacrifice.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-20-10, 08:08 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 5-1-3 [+3.60]

Rollin', rollin', rollin' uh.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 07:35 PM

Play #11: [Game 4] Canucks-Kings OVER 5 [-140]
All three games in this series have gotten to at least 5 goals with the last one in Los Angeles being the big one with 8 goals. One solid reason to go for it tonight is Vancouver's troubling defense on the road. In 13 of their last 14 road games, they have allowed at least 3 goals. In 8 of their last 10 overall, they have let in at least three goals. That is leaving the offense to keep up and they have with at least three goals in that same span [9 of 10]. The Kings defense has let in at least two in 8 of their last 10 and hasn't held Vancouver to less than two goals in any of their 7 meetings this season. For me, that means we're looking at no worse than a push and with another lick from Lady Luck - hopefully 6 or more. One of the best hotties on the ice as the sacrificial offering tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-21-10, 11:17 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 6-1-3 [+4.60]

Bingo bango.

waco66 · 04-22-10, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

UPDATED RECORD: 6-1-3 [+4.60]

Bingo bango.

..bongo!...his name is roberto loungo!

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 04:28 PM

Play #12: [Game 5] Senators-Penguins OVER 5.5 [-125]
It's a potential close out game for Pittsburgh tonight as they host Ottawa. The Pens offense has been clicking for the majority of this series with 4 or more goals in 3 of the 4 games. Ottawa for their part have helped contribute to some entertaining offense with 12 goals. In Pittsburgh this season, the Senators have managed 12 goals in 4 games. They have either been highly effective [4 & 5 goals] or stuck in neutral [1 & 2 goals] in those games at The Igloo. The best thing for Ottawa this series has been to get on the power play with 6 of their 12 goals on the PP. Pittsburgh has also done a solid job with 5 PP goals of their 17 in this series. The Penguins didn't mess around in close out games in the playoffs last season. In three close out games, the Pens talied 15 goals while allowing 6. I expect Pittsburgh to come out tonight smelling blood. Pascal Leclaire starts in goal again for Ottawa. He entered Game 3 after the Senators were down 4-0. He let in three more goals. The last time Leclaire started at The Igloo, he allowed 6 goals in an 8-2 Pens route. He has allowed 15 goals to the Penguins in three plus games this season. So in honor of the Pens trying to close the door tonight, give 'em the view from behind Lady Luck and let's fend off the bookies, don't let 'em hit ya where the good lawd split ya.

Soxsfan9 · 04-22-10, 04:51 PM

You have been tearing it up EP, I tailed you the last couple and REALLY like the Over again tonight!! BOL

EaglesPhan36 · 04-22-10, 08:34 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 7-1-3 [+5.60]

King Kong ain't got nothin' on Lady Luck's lick right now. Love to see the Bruins close out the series tomorrow and cash that series.

CallMeGENO · 04-22-10, 08:57 PM

eagles, what do you think about sharks avs under 5.5 or 6...anderson has been very very solid in this series and the avs dont score much...

EaglesPhan36 · 04-23-10, 07:25 AM

Sorry was not around for that one, probably would have sided with the UNDER as you said. Would cashed, EZ to say now, right?

EaglesPhan36 · 04-23-10, 04:13 PM

Play #13: [Game 5] Canadiens-Capitals OVER 5.5 [-140]
One more time to the well here and there's no indication that the Caps can be stopped no matter who is in goal for Montreal. Washington has a whopping 19 goals in four games in this series. Made to look even better when you consider they were held to just two in Game 1. The Canadiens have done okay trying to keep pace with 12 goals this series. Varlamov hasn't been exceptionally sharp, but he has held up well enough. In 4 starts vs. MON this season, he has allowed 10 goals with 7 allowed in 3 starts this series. He appears to be the stop-gap fix for the Caps in goal for this series at least. At home to try and close this series out, Washington will look to pummel Montreal again. They have 6, 5 & 6 by themselves in the last 3 games, so the majority of the damage may once more be inflicted on the sticks of the Caps. Montreal can help get the OVER done if they can keep getting on the power play. The Habs have a PP goal in each game of the series. Surprisingly, the Caps have tallied just one PP goal in 19 tries this series. Just think what could happen if they start scoring on the job? The goal is in sight, another win ... see if you can figure out where the winner needs to land.

vmchockey · 04-23-10, 04:17 PM

So far my fav was that philly broad you posted.

Tailing your pick tonight, BOL.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-23-10, 08:57 PM

UPDATED RECORD: 7-2-3 [+4.20]

Play #14: [Game 5] Coyotes Total Shots on Goal OVER 30.5 [-115]
Phoenix has hit above this number in 3 of the first 4 games in this series and in 7 of the 8 meetings this season. Not sure if Doan is back in, that could only help the cause if he is. Still, Coyotes seem dedicated to getting more shots on goal as they are moving veteran defenseman Mathieu Schneider onto the power play unit as they look for a spark. Red Wings have averaged giving up 30.5 shots on goal on the road this season, so you can see why the line is here as the Coyotes have averaged that same 30.5 shots on goal at home. Phoenix needs to go all out in Game 5 as they will not want to give Detroit the opportunity to close the series out in Game 5, so looking for Phoenix to pepper Jimmy Howard with shots.