Good to see the NHL back!
February 26th:
Buffalo +196
Vancouver +117
February 26th:
Buffalo +196
Vancouver +117
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Comment -
February 26th: 2-0 +3.13 Units
Record: 56-64 +4.80 Units
Big card today:
NY Rangers +115
NY Islanders -101
Florida +104
Ottawa -137
Winnipeg -115
Calgary +120
Edmonton +102
New Jersey -117Comment -
February 27th: 4-4 -0.22 Units
Record: 60-68 +4.58 Units
February 28th:
Colorado -145
Vancouver -145
Buffalo +163Comment -
Philadelphia +106
Washington +174
Florida +165
Chicago -120Comment -
Adding:
Montreal -125Comment -
Phoenix +114Comment -
February 28th: 2-1 +1.18 Units
March 1st: 4-1 +3.80 Units
March 2nd: 0-1 -1 Unit
Record: 66-71 +8.56 Units
March 3rd:
Calgary +163Comment -
Adding:
Buffalo +206Comment -
March 3rd: 0-2 -2 Units
Record: 66-73 +6.56 Units
March 4th:
Florida +214
Chicago -165
Nashville +133
Carolina +190
Tampa Bay +165Comment -
Adding:
NY Islanders +166Comment -
March 4th: 2-4 -1.09 Units
Record: 68-77 +5.47 Units
March 5th:
NY Rangers -155
Calgary -104Comment -
Adding:
Montreal +160Comment -
Me and you on two different pages again buddy.. GL thoughComment -
March 5th: 2-1 +1.05 Units
Record: 70-78 +6.52 Units
March 6th:
Winnipeg +109
Detroit -107
Nashville +136
Buffalo +219
Phoenix -135Comment -
What are you betting on? Underdogs only?:PComment -
I end up betting mostly underdogs, although there will be some favourites mixed in. My model generates a betting line for each game and I compare that to the actual line. If the lines are far enough off then I bet the game. I don't think it's a surprise that the majority of the value is on underdogs. You don't need to go any farther than any of the betting forums on the net where there are countless people proclaiming the better teams in the league a "lock" every night they play.Comment -
March 6th: 2-3 +0.12 Units
Record: 72-81 +6.64 UnitsComment -
March 7th:
Florida -155
Carolina +112Comment -
March 8th:
Nashville -104
Dallas -123
Vancouver -155Comment -
Edmonton +133
Buffalo +192
Florida+138Comment -
Minnesota +115Comment -
Hello friend first post here!! Just going to ramble if you don't mind. I see your using advance stats which is great but maybe holds more value at beginning of season where a teams current data is smaller and you expand the limited stats by using such stats like corsi/fenwick.
But this late in season could you not just use shots on goal to get your projected shots and use that to estimate goals?
Wonder if you could just do this
Lets say we are looking at toronto vs anaheim
toronto shots againest 36.6 ( excuss the stats think they are little old)
anahein shots for 33.3
36.6 times 33.3 divided by league average 30.1
So we could expect a average of 40.49 shots for anaheim
So instead here we have shots but could still use it to set a line like you were with fenwick and corsi.
Great thread btw.Nice to see a thread last longer then 3 days!!!!Comment -
Hey Rich, thanks for the post. It's good to know that some people are looking at the thread.
I think you could use shots on goal and approximate what I'm doing. However, I think Corsi/Fenwick have some additional features which make them more useful as a possession statistic than simply using shots on goal. Fenwick includes shots directed at the goal which are actually not on goal, and Corsi includes that, as well as shots that are blocked. In my opinion, these help provide more information about the actual possession a team has. In addition, it's easy to view these stats based on different situations. For example, one of the most useful ways is to measure Fenwick or Corsi only when the game is close. The definition of close seems to vary based on the site you use, but for the sake of our discussion we can assume that "close" means the game is within one goal. It has been proven that when a team gets out to a large lead their possession stats suffer. The other is also true obviously, when a team is far behind their possession stats improve. Therefore, if you measure shots on goal or Fenwick/Corsi over entire games you may underappreciate the best teams. This is because they will not be as strong when they are up 2 or 3 goals....and they will be up 2 or 3 goals far more than the other teams in the league. Hopefully that makes sense.Comment -
March 7th: 1-1 Even
March 8th: 2-1 +1 Unit
March 9th (or as I like to call it, the squarest day in recent memory): 0-4 -4 Units
Record: 75-87 +3.64 Units
Seriously, how many thousands of parlays do you think hit on Sunday involving some combination of Chicago, Boston, LA and St. Louis?Comment -
March 10th:
Washington +125
Winnipeg +152
Calgary +149Comment -
How many millions of idiots did opposite bets too because their heart told them to. Don't worry big brother didn't get hitComment -
I wasn't suggesting the books took a serious hit, was just commenting on the fact that it was a funny day. In a day with only 5 games, 4 of the top teams in the league played on the road against terrible teams (or in the case of Minnesota, an average team). All of them won.Comment -
How juicy were the straight moneylines most books? Expensive to lose?Comment -
Yes it makes total sense. I get the logic and I follow advance stats and apply them to local prop betting that is run by the government of ontario (olg). I dont actualy try to handicap games very often as most my bets are arbitrage bets and or props bets.
One of the problems that can occur with stat like corsi is that A defencemens corsi does not hit the net as much as a forwards. This was crucial when capping prop bets with shots.
Could you break down a game for me. On the exact method you are getting to your numbers. I would love to see. I may even be able to bring some ideas on how to distribute the averages and record results . I can see you are using possion distribution which is amazing tool. Sorry if i am being intrusive you are the only post I found that actually has some logic backed by math.
The convo about underdogs you are 100 percent correct. This is where your value is. Also I see your plays are all money line which also where the value is going to be found. I will continue to check on this forum and look forward to convosComment
