NHL Model - 2014

[cotes17]

Hey Cotes, I got your message and am looking forward to chatting but won't have a chance to give you a proper response until tomorrow. Appreciate the interest and it's good to see others thinking with the same mindset. Looking forward to discussing!

Brutal day yesterday...
January 18th: 1-4 -3.64 Units
Record: 18-23 -1.45 Units

January 19th:

Washington +136

No problem man, take your time. Hopefully with our discussion, we can make both our models better and get more winnings out of it. I finally found someone that has the a similar model as me and im sure we can improve both. GL buddy

[livan33]

January 19th: 0-1 -1 Unit
Record: 18-24 -2.45 Units

Will be on Florida and Calgary today. Just think if I wait I may be able to get even better lines than currently available. If Franzen or Alfie end up playing today I may also be on Detroit. Will wait until closer to gametime to see if there are any new reports.

[livan33]

Florida +229
Calgary +245

[livan33]

January 20th: 1-1 +1.29 Units
Record: 19-25 -1.16 Units

Big card today:

New Jersey +115
Columbus -101
Colorado -178
NY Rangers -175
Winnipeg +197
Carolina +128
Edmonton +126

[livan33]

January 21st: 3-3 -0.41 Units
Record: 22-28 -1.57 Units

Carolina was declared void due to the postponement

January 22nd:

Montreal +161
Calgary +123

Waiting to see the new Carolina-Philly line

[livan33]

Adding:

Detroit +152

[livan33]

Thanks Danni, turned out to be a good night.

January 22nd: 2-1 +1.75 Units
Record: 24-29 +0.18 Units

[livan33]

January 23rd:

NY Rangers +108
Buffalo +103
NY Islanders +114
Dallas -140
Minnesota +118
Winnipeg +187

[livan33]

January 24th:

Florida +103
Calgary -114

Will be on Edmonton if that line gets any higher. Haven't seen a line for the New Jersey game yet.

[livan33]

Edmonton +111

[livan33]

I'll update records Monday.

Winnipeg -132
NY Islanders +129
Philadelphia +104
Buffalo +185
Tampa Bay -142
Dallas +131

[jontebond]

I'll update records Monday.

Winnipeg -132
NY Islanders +129
Philadelphia +104
Buffalo +185
Tampa Bay -142
Dallas +131

Why do you back Islanders?

[ddude]

i think we all had a rough month
good call though i'm staying away from was, lost like 10 units on them recently on their losing streak

[livan33]

Edmonton +108

Most likely it for the day. Haven't had much time at all this weekend.

[livan33]

Record as of January 22nd: 24-29 +0.18 Units
January 23rd: 2-4 -1.82 Units
January 24th: 1-2 -1 Unit
January 25th: 4-2 +3.16 Units
January 26th: 1-0 +1.08 Units
Record: 32-37 +1.60 Units

January 27th:

Dallas -120
NY Islanders +116
Buffalo +245

[livan33]

Why do you back Islanders?

Sorry for taking so long to respond. My model had this game as very close to being 50/50, so I felt there was value on the Islanders at +129. As you've seen if you follow my picks, I generally find that an average team at home is undervalued when playing an elite team. If you want more specifics in terms of this game, I'd say that the Islanders PDO at home suggests they have been slightly unlucky (their home record should be better than it is) and that they have been playing much better as of late.....suggesting their season long ratings may not be fully indicative of their current play.

[livan33]

Bad night - 0-3 -3.2 Units
Record: 32-40 -1.6 Units

January 28th:

Florida +183
New Jersey +170
Phoenix -108
Calgary +174
Minnesota +183

[livan33]

January 28th: 3-2 +2.57
Record: 35-42 +0.97

January 29th:

Edmonton +161
Vancouver +106

[livan33]

Adding: NY Islanders +131

[livan33]

January 29th: 1-2 -0.39 Units
Record: 36-44 +0.58 Units

January 30th:

Montreal +165
Florida +137
Calgary +156
Philadelphia +176
Los Angeles +102

[livan33]

January 30th: 2-3 +0.21 Units
Record: 38-47 +0.79 Units

January 31st:

Carolina +121
Detroit -137

[livan33]

January 31st: 2-0 +2.21 Units
Record: 40-47 +3.00 Units

February 1st:

Waited to play my games until this morning because I thought most of them would move in my favour. Disappointed at the lines I ended up with but still like them at these odds. Big card today.

Florida +155
San Jose -110
Buffalo +192
Nashville +187
Phoenix +115
Dallas +164
Edmonton +201

[livan33]

February 1st: 3-4 -0.21 Units
Record: 43-51 +2.79 Units

February 2nd:

Winnipeg +130

[livan33]

February 2nd: 1-0 +1.3 Units
Record: 44-51 +4.09 Units

February 3rd:

New Jersey -106
Los Angeles -104
Columbus +159
Buffalo -101
Ottawa +188

[livan33]

February 4th:

NY Rangers -135
Calgary +155
Florida -103

[livan33]

Adding:

Vancouver +210

[livan33]

February 3rd: 1-4 -2.52 Units
February 4th: 2-2 Even
Record: 47-57 +1.57 Units

Will be on Buffalo tonight, just hoping the line moves back closer to where it was last night.

[livan33]

Don't want to risk the line dropping any more.

Buffalo +170

[livan33]

Added:

San Jose -168

[livan33]

February 6th:

Philadelphia -115
Los Angeles -144

[livan33]

February 5th: 1-1 Even
Record: 48-58 +1.57 Units

February 6th:

Philadelphia -115
Los Angeles -144

Adding:

Florida +104

Might add more later...

[livan33]

February 7th:

New Jersey -167
Phoenix +116
San Jose -172

[livan33]

February 6th: 2-1 +1 Unit
Record: 50-59 +2.57 Units

February 7th:

New Jersey -167
Phoenix +116
San Jose -172

[livan33]

February 8th:

Winnipeg +183
Ottawa +161
Vancouver +129
NY Islanders -106
Nashville +128
Dallas -140

[livan33]

February 7th: 3-0 +3.16 Units
February 8th: 1-5 -4.06 Units
Record going into break: 54-64 +1.67 Units

Think I can do better, but can't complain about being on the plus side going into the break. Back at it after the Olympics.