NHL Model - 2014

livan33 · 01-07-14, 10:59 AM

A little disappointed as if the Islanders had dropped another 4 cents they would have met my criteria, however, can't complain about a profitable night.

Record: 1-1 +0.74 Units

January 7th:

Winnipeg -111
Nashville +127
Edmonton +155
Vancouver +103

There's a chance I might add one or two later on...

livan33 · 01-07-14, 05:32 PM

That's most likely it for my card. My model has value on Minnesota at +200, but I don't think I can pull the trigger when their top 2 forwards are out. I just don't know how much they are worth so I will probably pass. Was also hoping the New Jersey line would continue to come down, but it looks like it is going the other way now.

Good luck all.

jontebond · 01-07-14, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by livan33

That's most likely it for my card. My model has value on Minnesota at +200, but I don't think I can pull the trigger when their top 2 forwards are out. I just don't know how much they are worth so I will probably pass. Was also hoping the New Jersey line would continue to come down, but it looks like it is going the other way now.

Good luck all.

Yeah and also note that their 3rd goalie is in net, Darcy Kuemper

livan33 · 01-07-14, 05:40 PM

Also a good point, thanks Jontebond. Good luck to you tonight!

jontebond · 01-07-14, 05:40 PM

Interested to hear more about how you developed this model.
Is it mainly based on Statistics?

livan33 · 01-08-14, 09:32 AM

Disappointing night, especially when my last lean would have hit as a +200. Pretty brutal loss on Vancouver, up 2 with just over 1 minute left. Oh well.

January 7th: 1-3 -1.84 Units
Record: 2-4 -1.10 Units

livan33 · 01-08-14, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by jontebond

Interested to hear more about how you developed this model.
Is it mainly based on Statistics?

Yes, I use Fenwick and PDO to calculate an expected number of goals scored for each team. I then use the Poisson Distribution to calculate the probability of each team scoring 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals etc. The Poisson Distribution only needs the mean in order to calculate these probabilities, so I used the expected number of goals as the mean. Once I have the probability of each team scoring each number of goals I can calculate the probability of each team winning the game. I then convert this to a betting line and compare to the actual line offered. I'm happy to provide more details if you are interested.

Each time I've started over with this model I've found one or two areas that I was missing. So it is still improving and is still a work in progress. I hope if I can iron out all the kinks it is a model that can eventually generate profit in the longterm.

livan33 · 01-08-14, 03:44 PM

January 8th:
NY Rangers +172

January 9th:
Carolina -130
Nashville +131
Calgary +165

bruceBRUCEbruce · 01-08-14, 06:39 PM

Interesting system, good luck, would love to see the process behind the ny rangers pick tonight.

livan33 · 01-09-14, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by bruceBRUCEbruce

Interesting system, good luck, would love to see the process behind the ny rangers pick tonight.

My model had the line closer to -150, so I felt there was value on New York at +172. It was more of a play on the Rangers rather than a fade of Chicago. Chicago is a great team, Fenwick supports that. However, Fenwick percentages suggest that the Rangers are better than their current record indicates. Fenwick has them as the 8th best team in the league and Fenwick Close has them as 11th. Looking at their road splits, they have a 5.49% shooting percentage contributing to a 0.97 PDO. This is extremely unlucky and is unsustainably low. This suggests that they have been playing better on the road than their record would indicate. These were some of the main factors that contributed to my line being around -150 and hence the value I felt was on New York.

January 8th: 1-0 +1.72 Units

Record: 3-4 +0.62 Units

livan33 · 01-09-14, 02:52 PM

Posted above:

January 9th:
Carolina -130
Nashville +131
Calgary +165

Added:

January 10th:

NY Rangers -147
NY Islanders +151
Edmonton +162
Vancouver +103

bruceBRUCEbruce · 01-10-14, 10:58 AM

nice hit on the rags the other evening

livan33 · 01-10-14, 11:44 AM

Read Carolina perfectly, might have deserved a better fate in Nashville and got crushed in Calgary.

January 9th: 1-2 -1 Units
Record: 4-6 -0.38 Units

livan33 · 01-10-14, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by bruceBRUCEbruce

nice hit on the rags the other evening

Thanks Bruce, appreciate it!

livan33 · 01-11-14, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by livan33

Posted above:

January 9th:
Carolina -130
Nashville +131
Calgary +165

Added:

January 10th:

NY Rangers -147
NY Islanders +151
Edmonton +162
Vancouver +103

Very nice to have a day when all the bounces go in your favour!

January 10th: 4-0 +5.16 Units
Record: 8-6 +4.78 Units

January 11th:

Calgary +165
Minnesota -122
Winnipeg -118
Montreal +126
Phoenix +114

I know about the flu going around the Jets but I think this line is way too low with Columbus on the second night of a back-to-back no matter who plays.

Good luck folks.

livan33 · 01-12-14, 11:33 AM

Back down to Earth yesterday.

January 11th: 1-4 -3.14 Units
Record: 9-10 +1.64 Units

January 12th:
Buffalo +179
NY Rangers -144
Edmonton +241
Detroit +174

TheMLBKing · 01-12-14, 06:11 PM

hope you lose your edmonton pick

livan33 · 01-12-14, 06:59 PM

Thanks bud, appreciate the well wishes.

livan33 · 01-13-14, 09:55 AM

January 12th: 2-2 +0.79 Units
Record: 11-12 +2.43 Units

January 13th:

Calgary +160
Winnipeg +108

livan33 · 01-13-14, 03:42 PM

January 14th:

NY Rangers -145
New Jersey +151

Will probably be more depending on how the lines move before tomorrow night.

livan33 · 01-14-14, 09:26 AM

January 13th: 2-0 +2.68 Units
Record: 13-12 +5.11 Units

Still watching the lines, will likely be adding to today's card.

livan33 · 01-14-14, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by livan33

January 14th:

NY Rangers -145
New Jersey +151

January 14th adding:

Buffalo +133
Washington +125
Florida +102

livan33 · 01-14-14, 02:38 PM

January 15th:

Vancouver +156

livan33 · 01-15-14, 10:56 AM

Think the capping was okay last night, just didn't get the results. All the losses were by 1 goal and both wins were by multiple goals. Suggests to me that it could have easily been a better night.

January 14th: 2-3 -0.92 Units
Record: 15-15 +4.19 Units

livan33 · 01-15-14, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by livan33

January 15th:

Vancouver +156

Still may add one more for tonight.

January 16th:

Florida +140
Dallas +106
New Jersey +138
Phoenix -115

livan33 · 01-16-14, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by livan33

January 15th:

Vancouver +156

Well that was a disaster. Good thing all losses count the same!

January 15th: 0-1 -1 Units
Record: 15-16 +3.19 Units

livan33 · 01-16-14, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by livan33

January 16th:

Florida +140
Dallas +106
New Jersey +138
Phoenix -115

Adding: Minnesota -150

livan33 · 01-17-14, 07:47 AM

January 16th: 2-3 -1 Unit
Record: 17-19 +2.19 Units

ddude · 01-17-14, 09:05 PM

yeah pretty rough month for me too
but you made money, no matter how much, you can't argue against that

livan33 · 01-18-14, 11:18 AM

January 18th:

Buffalo +107
St. Louis -144
Nashville -120
Calgary +187

livan33 · 01-18-14, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by ddude

yeah pretty rough month for me too
but you made money, no matter how much, you can't argue against that

Thanks ddude, definitely not complaining. Hope things turn around for you!

livan33 · 01-18-14, 12:32 PM

Adding:

Winnipeg -147

cotes17 · 01-18-14, 05:54 PM

Hey livan33, i sent you a personal message about your model, would be awesome if you could help me out

Nice OT win for you today and GL tonight

livan33 · 01-19-14, 11:36 AM

Hey Cotes, I got your message and am looking forward to chatting but won't have a chance to give you a proper response until tomorrow. Appreciate the interest and it's good to see others thinking with the same mindset. Looking forward to discussing!

Brutal day yesterday...
January 18th: 1-4 -3.64 Units
Record: 18-23 -1.45 Units

January 19th:

Washington +136