Betting straight-up ML dogs in March Madness would have profited immensely.

[aljack]

Straight-up underdog Money Line's would have profited immensely over the past two rounds of March Madness

@ BEST ODDS

ROUND 1: 8-22, +24.85u
ROUND 2: 6-10, +7.35u

Full Tournament to date: 14-32, +32.2u

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There was a large discrepancy on the UMBC line - some odds as high as +2900, some as low as +1900, Even if you take the 10u's away - you're still profiting +14 units round 1 +22u entire tournament.

If you bet just $10 on every under dog team in March Madness this year - You'd be up $322

Fitting because you would technically need $320 to start this system (technically could do $160 a day, but you would get more value betting the friday games on thursday)

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Thoughts for next year:

Seeing as the committee seems to pride themselves on this balance of pairity. I feel like the trend of dogs winning outright will continue. Mind you - if UMBC didn't win vs Virginia. You'd probably only be profiting a handful of units - but you'd still be up.

Also, now that a 16 has beaten a 1 - it may be harder to get long shot lines on opening games - seeing as every upset has occurred in the tournament's history.

I wouldn't mind trying this out with a side account next year though - something to look towards.

[MRivera42]

more of the same rest of the tournament

[Lenny Zefflin]

"Would have"

You can take any group of past games and find a positive betting angle.

[OVAKUL]

Can you cap future games? Dozens of games to look forward to this year.

[aljack]

Can you cap future games? Dozens of games to look forward to this year.

Of course...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-basketball-betting/3460915-math-man-ncaa-march-madness.html

[Bsims]

In 2012 and 2013 I bet on every underdog in the NCAA tourney. I bet on the dogs plus the spread, and the dogs on the money line. In 2014 I was hospitalized for 4 months with a serious surgery and missed the NCAA tourney. In 2015, I had recovered enough to bet on the last two weeks of the tourney. In 2016 I had recovered enough to bet on the entire tourney again. After the 2016 season I analyzed the results.

I had made 221 wagers on the spread over those tears and returned $0.96 on each dollar wagered.
I had made 206 money line wagers and returned $1.17 on each dollar wagered.

But, in 2012 and again in 2016, a 15th seed had upset a 2nd seed in round 1 paying over 30-1. Without these 2 upsets, I would have returned $0.91 on each dollar wagered. Thus I concluded not to continue the practice after 2016. (Obviously M/L picks would have been great this year.)

[trytrytry]

what is the data so far this year lookin like

[TheMoneyShot]

Even though it's an interesting outlook...

I don't know anyone who wagers semi-professional... or professional... who would wager "blind" like this.

[Bsims]

Even though it's an interesting outlook...

I don't know anyone who wagers semi-professional... or professional... who would wager "blind" like this.

I did this a few years ago for entertainment value. I didn't have any particular methodology for handicapping these basketball games, but wanted action to make watching the games tolerable. Taking the dogs generally cuts into losses due to the vig, so that's what I elected to do.

Now that I think about it, this raises an interesting question. Why do you gamble? There are two fairly obvious answers. One is to make money. Two is that I enjoy it and am willing to pay for the entertainment. Anyone have a different answer?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In 2012 and 2013 I bet on every underdog in the NCAA tourney. I bet on the dogs plus the spread, and the dogs on the money line. In 2014 I was hospitalized for 4 months with a serious surgery and missed the NCAA tourney. In 2015, I had recovered enough to bet on the last two weeks of the tourney. In 2016 I had recovered enough to bet on the entire tourney again. After the 2016 season I analyzed the results.

I had made 221 wagers on the spread over those tears and returned $0.96 on each dollar wagered.
I had made 206 money line wagers and returned $1.17 on each dollar wagered.

But, in 2012 and again in 2016, a 15th seed had upset a 2nd seed in round 1 paying over 30-1. Without these 2 upsets, I would have returned $0.91 on each dollar wagered. Thus I concluded not to continue the practice after 2016. (Obviously M/L picks would have been great this year.)

wHO knew that Bsims = Bill Nye (the Science Guy)?

Good info, Sims. Truth is that so much was tied to that UMBC longshot. And who is counting on that to happen again b4 Halley's Comet returns?