how do you measure handicapping success?
Is there a generally accepted method for measuring the success of one handicapper vs. another?
Said another way - if you had a group of 100 handicappers and total transparency into the details of their bankroll and bets, what are the measurements that you would use to determine which one was the most successful?
Food for thought - I don't think that there is a single measure that can be used to answer the question. Rather a combination of metrics is needed to describe handicapper success...
My guess is that the one of the key success measures would be the percentage return on amount wagered.
[Ending Bankroll - Beginning Bankroll] / Total Amount Wagered
While this metric clearly quantifies the overall performance it does not describe the journey from beginning to end. In a comparison of 2 handicappers that generate the same rate of return, I would make the case that the handicapper with a higher win rate and consistent bet size is the more successful.
Thanks for the link, durito.
From a hard-core statistical perspective the info in the post makes sense. But I guess that I was looking for something a bit more - ummm, "pragmatic"...
I'd like to become a better handicapper. In order to do so, I was hoping to find a few metrics that I could use to benchmark my current level and then monitor my progress over time. Would also be helpful to understand how far off my performance against key performance metrics compares to the pros.
Not sure that calculating my z-score is going to help me identify areas for improvement. Meaning:
Is my win % too low?
Do I play too many games?
Am I betting too much of my bankroll on individual games?
Should I be betting more O/U rather than ATS?
Appreciate any and all thoughts about the process folks use to track and improve their performance...
It probably won't.Originally Posted by One Eyed Bobby
Not sure that calculating my z-score is going to help me identify areas for improvement.
But it will provide you some indication as to the likelihood that your wagering success-to-date is indicative of skill as opposed to proverbial wind pissing.
And that's probably the single most important consideration for the journeyman advantage bettor.
For point prediction models, I prefer Median Absolute Error, as I use this stat to separate the goodness of one model WRT another so why not for handicappers? Does not work for money lines, tho.
