wong teaser for 2008-2009 nfl season

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:32 AM

here is what i am going to do. anything qualify the wong teaser are those side that can be teased across 3,7 with a 6 pter. (since tie= lose in a tease), i am looking for side that give the extra half pt across 3,7

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:37 AM

week1: (only listing away teams...cuz that is how covers has it)

was 4.5
tb 3
stl 9.5
nyj -3
kc 16
hou 6.5
cin -1
det -3.5
sea 1
jac -3
dal -6
car 9.5
ari -1
chi 10
min 1
den -3

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:40 AM

16 games for week 1, first let me see how many sweet spot games are there (just look for cover less than 6 pts)

was
tb
nyj
min

that is 4 out of 16 games for week 1. about 25%

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:44 AM

ones in bold means you would win no matter which side you tease

was 4.5
tb 3
stl 9.5
nyj -3
kc 16
hou 6.5
cin -1
det -3.5
sea 1
jac -3
dal -6
car 9.5
ari -1
chi 10
min 1
den -3

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:55 AM

was 4.5 - was to +10.5
tb 3 - tb to +9
stl 9.5 - phi to -3.5 (tease fav across 7)
nyj -3 - mia to +9
kc 16 -no tease
hou 6.5 -pit to -0.5
cin -1 - cin to +5 (tease across 0)
det -3.5 - atl to +9.5
sea 1 - buf to +5
jac -3 - ten to +9
dal -6 - dal to pk
car 9.5 -sd to -3.5
ari -1 -ari to +5
chi 10 - ind to -4
min 1 - gb to +5
den -3 - oak to +9

**pico** · 04-06-09, 04:59 AM

ones in green are winners

was 4.5 - was to +10.5
tb 3 - tb to +9
stl 9.5 - phi to -3.5 (tease fav across 7)
nyj -3 - mia to +9
kc 16 -no tease
hou 6.5 -pit to -0.5
cin -1 - cin to +5 (tease across 0)
det -3.5 - atl to +9.5
sea 1 - buf to +5
jac -3 - ten to +9
dal -6 - dal to pk
car 9.5 -sd to -3.5
ari -1 -ari to +5
chi 10 - ind to -4
min 1 - gb to +5
den -3 - oak to +9

**pico** · 04-06-09, 05:01 AM

that is 11/15 with win % of 73.33%

so for week 1, you can blindly tease them and make a profit

**LT Profits** · 04-06-09, 07:36 AM

No, a Wong Teaser has to go through BOTH the 3 and the 7. Thus, you only look at favorites of between -7.5 and -8.5 and at dogs between +1.5 and +2.5.

**LT Profits** · 04-06-09, 07:38 AM

Since 1985, NFL Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and NFL Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 are a combined 618-599-12, 50.8% ATS.

Teasing those same teams 6 points improved the record to 921-303-5, 75.2%.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:45 AM

thanks lt. i'll look at covers data and see how will it work out for last year.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:47 AM

no wong teasers for 1st week.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:48 AM

no wong teaser for 2nd week...

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:49 AM

no wong teaser for 3rd or 4th week. i think the books know

**LT Profits** · 04-06-09, 07:51 AM

You mean the books caught on?

Covers uses Pinnacle lines, and Pinny almost never has those lines anymore. You need a squarer book to take advantage.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:52 AM

finally found one:

week 10: gb @ min -2.5. teaser hit the sweet spot

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:53 AM

another one for week 10: bal @ hou -2.5...did not hit the sweet spot this time

hou got blown out

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:54 AM

that is it for week 10. you should lost the teaser for this week

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:56 AM

another one week 13: den @nyj -7.5. you would lose the teaser on this one, den won straight up

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:58 AM

week 15: gb @ jac +2.5 underdog won, so this is a winner

**pico** · 04-06-09, 07:59 AM

week 16: cin +2.5...cin won straight up

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:00 AM

week 16: pit @ ten +2.5 ten won straight up

**LT Profits** · 04-06-09, 08:01 AM

2008 Season using squarer book:

ATS: 23-24-0, 48.9% ATS
6-pt Tease: 33-13-1, 71.7%

About par for the course

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:01 AM

week 17: mia +2.5 won straight up

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:02 AM

week 17 dal +2.5...lost bad

**LT Profits** · 04-06-09, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by pico

playoff: mia +2.5 won straight up

You mean Baltimore.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:03 AM

wildcard atl +1.5...sweet spot teaser cover

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:04 AM

wildcard sd +1.5 won straight up

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:05 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You mean Baltimore.

typo for me. it was week17

**pico** · 04-06-09, 08:07 AM

from my calculation. sharp book (pinny) wong teaser record is 7 out of 11. that is 63.63%

you can't beat pinny

**Dark Horse** · 04-06-09, 09:17 AM

Try open teasers.

Books are afraid of Wong teasers. The sharpest bookmaker, outside of Pinny, is probably Tony from 5Dimes. You should see how he treats teasers. A 6 pt teaser in football to him translates into about 4.5 pts. Doesn't even try to hide it.

**coldhardfacts** · 04-06-09, 09:30 AM

Thanks, Pico, for doing the research. And I'm willing to concede that for someone who bets blindly, Wong teasers are probably a good deal.

But based on these numbers (and I only counted 10 Wong teasers), 5 would have won straight, 3 lost even with the teaser points, and 2 (Falcons and Vikings) won because of the teaser points. So the teaser points only made a difference 20% of the time. But you have to offset this advantage with the possibility (probability) that at least a couple of the straight winners would have turned into losers if one had to hook them up with another side to put in a teaser.

So if I'm a successful handicapper, it still doesn't seem like betting teasers is +EV.

**pico** · 04-06-09, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Try open teasers.

Books are afraid of Wong teasers. The sharpest bookmaker, outside of Pinny, is probably Tony from 5Dimes. You should see how he treats teasers. A 6 pt teaser in football to him translates into about 4.5 pts. Doesn't even try to hide it.

what is open teaser? 1 teamer 6 pter -241 chalk?

**tomcowley** · 04-06-09, 11:03 AM

Why the hell are you betting somewhere that ties lose in a teaser? That's horrible unless you're getting significantly better odds to make up for it.

**trixtrix** · 04-06-09, 11:10 AM

why is everyone still dwelling on convincing coldhardfacts re teasers? don't cha know the man hits 55%+ on straight bets??!!

he spits at your puny pathetic edges..