I make automated lines for most sports based on the relevant statistics, but never seem to know how to account for strength of schedule other then just adjusting my line after the fact. I am curious how others account for this variable. If they give it weight in their formula, or is deeper then that?
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I don't adjust the lines, I adjust the stats that go into the line.
I always set a standard of games first to get a read of teams, like do not bet until each team has played 10 games in hockey.
For each of those 10 games and every game thereafter, compare the performance in those games to the team they played.
If team A scored 3 goals vs team B, and team B typically gives up 2, and the league average is 2.5, then team A's 3 goals in that game were like scoring 3.75 goals verse an average team. Since they scored 3 goals vs a good defensive team, vs an average team, you would assume they would score more. So for that game I would use 3.75 goals scored instead of 3.Comment -
By the way, what I described above is especially important for the NFL, since there are so few games.Comment -
Good post Fear...Adjusting for the strength of schedule for the opponents will then improve your precision...check the link above.
Also, when comparing teams to the league, in terms of averages, it is best to use league medians rather than the mean (which is commonly meant by average).
Unless one team is above mean and one below the mean, using the arithmetic mean can cause trouble….stick with medians.
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