Pags' Plays 10/11

[xyzky]

Sorry, but I hear a lot of sales pitch in the words from your posts and others on the other thread posted above. When guys are saying "he's so cool," "it was worth it," "football jesus is money," "it was easy," "i made 2000 monday alone!"... it really starts sounding like a BS infomercial.

If it's not a promotion, then why are you guys pushing it so hard? Especially from guys without reps on this site.

no offense intended, just sharing my impression of the situation.

I havent paid any attention to it really, but, good point!!

[taurus]

I think as markets continually change, you have to change with it...

Pags, I found your respopnse very interesting.
I almost started my own discussion thread ( !! ) a couple of weeks back, wondering if we hadn't approached the point where the elite teams had just too much class for the 'just good' teams. Then all hell broke loose with that rash of upsets, and I said " nope, I'm wrong about that" . But I'm really not so sure that we haven't come to that "market change" point. Anyway, continued good luck. I'm staying on board with you.

[ElCapitan]

pags,

First, thanks for your great analysis of the games and sharing it here. Just a question: Do you feel the line move on LSU is due to the injury status, specifically Hatch and Byrd being listed as questionable?

Just curious.

[pags11]

xyz,

I just think the Vandy vs. MSU game is a no play at the current line...that's just what my gut says...

bearmz,

I appreciate you stopping by...glad to hear you like Northwestern this week...I really don't have opinions on the other games, although I can understand Baylor being the favorite this week based on how Iowa St. finished their game last week..

go sooners,

thanks for stopping by again this week...I appreciate your insight this week...let's definitely try to talk here soon...

maury,

thank you...

white_tiger,

glad we will be on those games together...

daneblazer,

I appreciate it...

shrax,

glad we will be on LSU together...yes, Shrax almost everyone, if I can't get a game on TV which is pretty rare, I follow it on gamecast...

alexda,

thank you sir...

jagermeister1,

thanks bud...glad we will be on Tulsa together...

taurus,

that's interesting that we both are seeing things that way...I agree with your analysis...

elcapitan,

the opening number was six, then went down to 4, then up to six...I see the game fluctuating between there the rest of the week...not based on any injury info. but just money coming in on both teams...that's my two cents...

[Dbldown11]

I like the look of ur plays pags. I'm win you on a few of em. I've got my plays up with write up. Would appreciate any insight you may have on them

[pags11]

dbldown,

your card looks good to me...

[Dbldown11]

thanks for the insight Pags

[pags11]

dbldown,

no problem bud...

[fish425093]

New to the forum

Pags,

Thanks for the insght this week... I hope it works out. I am new to the forum and am looking forward to learning as much as possible from everyone here.


Fish

[pags11]

fish,

thanks bud...good to have you on board...

[cs11787]

Hey pags, USC is at -28 now. Still lookin good to you?

[clowncar]

checking my watch and it says it is time for writeups .........

[pags11]

Hello board,

Here are my plays for the week:

TCU -14

I became most impressed with this TCU team when watching them play Oklahoma earlier this season. When I saw them shut down OU’s running game, I knew that this is a team that was pretty special. Gary Patterson has this defense clicking on all cylinders, and their run defense in particular is extremely stout. Basically, you just can’t run the football on this defense, which is going to be a problem for Colorado State’s offense. I say that because two of the best offensive players on the CSU squad are both running backs in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. QB Billy Ferris will be faced with numerous blitz schemes from the extremely fast TCU defensive unit. TCU also excels at special teams, particularly in their punt and kick coverage department. If TCU is able to make CSU start with a long field the majority of the game, the CSU offense is going to struggle to sustain drives and thus score. The TCU offense has been performing well, most people aren’t aware that they have one of the best third down conversion percentages in nation. This key to note because CSU plays the type of defense that doesn’t allow big plays, but they do give up a bunch of yardage. As I’ve mentioned before, when I lay points with a team, especially on the road, I like a team to have a stable of running backs that can help sustain and build upon early game leads. Joseph Turner (8 TDs), Ryan Christian, and Aaron Brown all average over four yards per carry, and are the focal point of the TCU offense. It appears as though QB Marcus Jackson will get the start this week, which is fine with me. He has a ton of experience and has almost identical stats as Andy Dalton, but is actually a bit more mobile. Patterson will want to run his full offense in this game and Jackson gives him the best chance to do so. Look for TCU to build upon their lead as the game goes on and for their defense to keep CSU’s offense in check. Laying double digits on the road is always a dicey proposition, but I feel strong enough to do so with TCU this week.

Kansas -14

I’m not sure how many of you were able to watch the second half of the Kansas vs. Iowa St. game last week, but I can tell you that Kansas definitely shook the rust off from their two week layoff and by the end of the game was firing on all cylinders. In contrast, Colorado comes into this game beaten down both physically and mentally. I listened to Doug Flutie this week talk about how much Kansas QB Todd Reesing reminds him of himself. Every time I watch Reesing play I am extremely impressed with how he overcomes his height limitations with excellent footwork and terrific arm strength. QB Kerry Meier leads the team with forty-four catches. With Damon Briscoe and Johnathon Wilson, Kansas has one of the deeper receiving units in the Big Twelve. RB Jake Sharp has emerged from Mark Mangino’s doghouse and got nineteen carries last week. Look for Kansas to rely upon him even more so this week. Angus Quigley and Jocques Crawford are nice change of pace backs as well. I’ve talked a lot about how important good coaching and quarterback play is when I handicap games. I feel that Kansas fits the mold in both categories. Colorado has had major issues the past two weeks with their defense. Part of the reason their defense is struggling is that they lack the team speed to keep up with a lot of the playmakers in the Big Twelve. Part of why they are struggling is because their offense is leaving them out on the field for so long. Look for more of the same from them this week, because Kansas has some fast players on the offensive side of the ball. Kansas’s defense should display the same form that held Iowa St. to only thirteen second half points last week. Colorado QB Cody Hawkins is struggling with his reads, especially on third down. This is allowing opposing defenses to stack up more against the run. This is what I anticipate doing this week. Kansas will ultimately exert their will, creating enough separation to make Colorado one dimensional. This is when the game could get out of hand.


USC -25.5

Pete Carroll has one mission, which is to get his team back in position to be in the national title game. The only way he is going to do that is by beating the rest of the teams on USC schedule by as many points as possible. ASU comes into this game without their quarterback and team leader, and is starting four freshmen now on defense. Please be clear about this as well, Pete Carroll doesn’t care who he offends in the process. Anyone see Mitch Mustain throw a TD late in the fourth quarter of their game against Oregon? Carroll has five star recruits at third string, and when these kids get in the game they don’t want to run a vanilla offense or defense. They want to play some football. From all reports that I have read USC QB Mark Sanchez will play this week, with Mitch Mustain (former Arkansas QB) being the second team guy. Do realize that USC’s back-up QB has a lifetime 10-0 record as a starter? The guy has played in the SEC and is eager to prove to everyone that transferring to USC will ultimately prove to be a successful decision. USC has had the top recruiting class in the nation for five straight years. I’m not sure most people can even fathom that. They have three running backs that could start for anyone else in the country in Joe McKnight, CJ Gable and Stafon Johnson. Their receiving unit is also extremely deep, headlined by Damian Williams (former teammate of Mustain’s at Arkansas) and Patrick Turner. This is not a good time for a banged up and underperforming ASU defense to face USC’s offense this week. Dennis Erickson has been so fed up with the performance of some of his veteran players that he’s replaced them with freshman. On the defensive side of the ball USC has one of the fastest and most athletic units in the country. Their goal for this game will be simple, to try and pitch a shutout. This could be an attainable goal as they get MLB Ray Maloluga back. The problem with the ASU offense starts with their offensive line. This is part of the reason that Carpenter is doubtful for this game in that he’s been beat up the past two years. It also makes it extremely difficult for ASU to establish any type of a running game. USC will look to dominate for all sixty minutes and I think they can.


LSU +4


The more I watch college football, the more I understand how important line play is. That is what I feel this game will come down to. LSU possesses one of the stoutest defensive lines in the entire country. They have a ton of speed on defense, which is the only way to match up with the Florida spread. I heard Urban Meyer talk a lot this week about his backs needing to get to the second and third level to do the most damage to opposing defenses. That may be an easier task against some of Florida’s early season opponents, but the LSU D Line and line backing corps should neutralize most potentially big running plays. SEC games always come down to third and short, and Tim Tebow appears to be Florida’s best short yardage back. Again, I give the edge to the LSU defensive line in this department. This will mean that Tim Tebow will have to try and beat them with his arm. This could also be a problem as top playmaker Percy Harvin is in a walking cast, not to mention RB Emmanuel Moody won’t be available for this game either due to injury. This will mean a young receiver is going to have to step up and try to make plays on the LSU defense. Florida is going to get their share of points, but I am confident that LSU’s defense can keep them in this game. LSU’s offensive line also does a great job opening up holes for Charles Scott. Look for Less Miles to feed the ball to Scott early, taking some of the pressure off young QB Jarrett Lee. As the game goes on I anticipate LSU opening up the playbook, getting the ball to Brandon LaFell, Trindon Holiday and Demetrius Byrd. LSU has been playing some very good football so far this year and they had a week to prepare for this game. Say what you want about Les Miles, but he seems to find a way to stay in these types of ballgames, often times pulling out the win at the end. The swamp is a tough place to play, but I’m willing to side with LSU here against a Florida team that just hasn’t looked as dominant as some say they are.



Hawaii -7

In watching Hawaii’s upset win of Fresno St. last week, I was particularly impressed with the emergence of QB Inoke Funaki. Funaki is a legitimate dual threat option at the quarterback position, as he can run the ball and has precision with his passes. Hawaii is a team that started out the season with a pretty tough schedule and also battled through some injuries to key members of their team. They are starting to get healthy and are back home in the islands this weekend, where Hawaii has one of the stronger home fields in the entire country. La. Tech comes into this game struggling to generate any type of offense, which is partly due to the poor play they are receiving from their QB Taylor Bennett. Bennett has underperformed in every game so far this season and defenses are starting to take note. Bennett’s footwork and accuracy make it very difficult for the La. Tech offense to stretch the field vertically. I do respect WR Phillip Livas as a playmaker, but he only has fourteen catches so far the entire season. RB’s Daniel Porter and Patrick Jackson have thus been bottled up, as neither averages more than four yards per carry. The strength of the Hawaii defense is their run defense, which should match up well with La. Tech in this game. Hawaii has three NFL prospects that start on defense and they are a very fast defense. This should match up well with the slower La. Tech offense. One of the most underrated RB’s in the WAC is Hawaii RB Kealoha Pilares. Pilares is averaging over 5.8 ypc and has four touchdowns on the season. Hawaii has modified their offensive playbook to bring out the strengths of QB Funaki, but they still run a lot of the run and shoot offense from years past. This game comes down to La. Tech having to travel across the country and play in a game that starts at 11 PM their time. Hawaii’s home field and team speed will ultimately wear them down in the second half.


Northwestern +3

Northwestern is a team that I had my eye on coming into the season. They have a bunch of upper classmen, many whom were coached by Randy Walker. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has tried to instill the same mental toughness in his players that Walker did and it’s showing so far this season. Northwestern possesses a great deal of balance on offense and it starts with their QB C.J. Bacher. Bacher played earlier in the season with taped up fingers, thus skewing his stats a bit, but make no mistake here as he is a veteran leader with playmaking ability. He has had a week to get healthy, as has the entire Northwestern team. Bacher has three veteran pass catchers to throw the ball to in Eric Peterman, Rasheed Ward and Ross Lane. These guys understand how to get open and are on the same page with Bacher. Northwestern running game is headlined by veteran Tyrell Sutton (5.3 ypc, 5 TD), who also lines up in the slot position to catch passes. RB Omar Conteh is a reliable second option to run the football and often spells Sutton, keeping both backs fresh throughout the game. I’ve watched Michigan State’s defense the past two weeks give up a lot of yardage, and past history tells us that Northwestern will have success moving the football against them. On defense, Northwestern defends the run particularly well. This will help them match up well with the MSU offense, which is heavily reliant on RB Javon Ringer. Ringer has twelve touchdowns on the season, but also has more carries than any running back in the country. Lately, he hasn’t had the same burst and you have to wonder how much of that has to do with the heavy workload he’s received early in the season. MSU QB Bryan Hoyer (47% completions) is really struggling to make plays, and both WR Mark Dell and TE Charlie Gantt left in the second half of last week’s games with injuries. They are expected to play, but one has to wonder how healthy they are. This is a game, very much like with Vanderbilt last week, where Northwestern shows the rest of the country they are worth of national recognition.


Tulsa -25

I don’t know where to start in trying to describe how powerfully underrated this team is. You might be shocked to see me lay this many points on the road, but I can honestly tell you that it doesn’t bother me doing so with this Todd Graham coached squad. I got to watch them play for the first time last week and can honestly tell you I was amazed at what I saw. I’ve seen a lot of good offenses in my day, including Missouri’s unit this year, but I tell you that based on their competition level, Tulsa has the single most difficult offense to defend in the country. How come no one is talking about Tulsa QB David Johnson? In a run-based spread (yes, that’s right, just ask offensive coordinator Guz Malzon if you don’t believe me), all the guy has done is throw for twenty TDs while only throwing five interceptions. Tulsa has seven running backs (that’s right seven), who all average over 5.6 ypc. Their depth at the running back position, along with excellent offensive line play, allows Tulsa to exert their will on opponents throughout the game. Look for them to do more of the same this week against a struggling SMU defensive unit. Tulsa has a great deal of team speed on offense and the SMU defenders will get worn down trying to keep up with the Tulsa no-huddle offense. Tulsa head coach Todd Graham is not one to take his foot off of the peddle. The only way his team is going to get national recognition is by continually obliterating their Conference USA competition. It should also be noted that Graham is auditioning for a BCS head coaching job and I wouldn’t doubt him getting one after the season is over. He’d better make sure that Malzon goes with him wherever he goes, because the guy is an offensive mastermind. Tulsa also has a decent defense that should have success in facing young SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Two of SMU’s offensive threats, WR Aldrick Robinson and RB DeMyron Martin, left last week’s game with injuries but are expected to play. Tulsa is simply going to look to outscore SMU in this game and I feel they can do so.

GLTA

[pags11]

cs,

that is the absolute highest I would play the game at...

clowncar,

there you go bud...

[clowncar]

Thanks for the hard work and best of luck this week , Mister Pags.

[VegasDave]

Excellent write-ups Pags, can't really disagree with any of them, with the exception of LSU. I also seem to give Colo State, Colorado, and Mich State more credit then you do (why I didn't play against them), but can't disagree with the side you are on.

What is your record ATS this season? I know you were .500 but have strung together a few very strong weeks... what are you sitting at right now?

[pags11]

clowncar,

thanks brother...

usckingsfan,

thanks for your thoughts on the games...I only post my record once a week, just part of my superstitiousness...I believe you can find it in post #174 of last week's thread...

[Jimmydafreak]

Outstanding job as usual Pags!!! Your writeup on the LSU game is right on the money. LSU's d-line may be the best in the country, and the Gators will have no success on the ground in this game. So the question is, can Tebow pass the Gators to victory. I don't think so.

As always, may the force be with you buddy!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[ZBOIZ]

Excellent write-ups Pags, can't really disagree with any of them, with the exception of LSU. I also seem to give Colo State, Colorado, and Mich State more credit then you do (why I didn't play against them), but can't disagree with the side you are on.

What is your record ATS this season? I know you were .500 but have strung together a few very strong weeks... what are you sitting at right now?

Everything Pags said about the LSU game is true! Florida Offensive line is no were near on the level with LSU. And when Tebow is your only running back that tupe of play will not work in the SEC! They already lost to Ole Miss! Dont let the NAME FLORIDA get you confuse with this game! LSU can win this game! TRUST ME!

Tebow will have to pass the ball to win this game! They will have no running game! LSU HAS THE BEST D LINE IN THE COUNTRY! YOU HAVE FOUR 1ST AND 2ND ROUNDERS ON THAT LINE!

[Andrewsurf]

pags, these are some juicy plays, really loving it. thanks again for sharing your hard work with the forum, time is money, and the time you spend watching tape and capping seems to = money for those involved. I attend Colorado and don't have the heart to bet against my buffs, but wouldn't tell anyone otherwise, especially against Kansas.

I love LSU with the points, I couldn't believe this spread was more then a field goal when I saw it. I haven't bet it yet, but I will be on the spread, and a small play on the ML. Florida at home will be tough, but i'll eat my hat if it doesn't stay close.

Keep up the good work, and BOL this week!

[I.R.B]

Wow very nice Pags... I have to say i argued all week with my friends and family about that LSU/Florida game, Everyone is on Florida and im the lone Lsu taker... They thinking im crazy taking Lsu ML... But after reading you're write up i feel even better about my bet i placed... We all know that anything can happen but Lsu @ +225 is a steal in my eyes...

Nice Write up and GL this week...

[I.R.B]

Im also taking Lsu on the spread tho... Got them at +6

[Jacey]

pags,

Nice writeups as always, I wish you the same luck as last week. I jumped on many of these plays before line movement, actually got some down on USC -25. I missed Northwestern though, it went from 3 to 1.5, what do you think of that number, or playing and buying to 2?

Got LSU at 4 like I said earlier, but I'm in SEC country, I still think LSU is underrated and Florida (even after Ole Miss loss!) is overrated, going to take a little ML.

You're spot on about Tulsa. Hope they continue to be misunderestimated.

[xyzky]

Pag's,

Great writeups!!

[pavyracer]

Nice plays pags. Good luck.

[L2Gunz]

Pag's...I would like to thank you for all your time and dedication to this forum and it's members. I've been on this site for some time now(just following) and occasionally posting. Your threads are always on point w/ up to the date information. There are plenty of good cappers here. The names that I remember from years back are Illusion, Checkerboard(where has he been), LT, and a few more. Nowadays there plenty of new names w/ lots of reliable information. Not trying to clutter your thread up, I just wanted to say THANKS....

[ZBOIZ]

Pag's...I would like to thank you for all your time and dedication to this forum and it's members. I've been on this site for some time now(just following) and occasionally posting. Your threads are always on point w/ up to the date information. There are plenty of good cappers here. The names that I remember from years back are Illusion, Checkerboard(where has he been), LT, and a few more. Nowadays there plenty of new names w/ lots of reliable information. Not trying to clutter your thread up, I just wanted to say THANKS....

I see Louisiana is getting deep on SBR. What part you from?

[L2Gunz]

ZBOIZ...im from the new orleans, yeah i've been meanin to hit you up. cuz i noticed that you stay in b.r. huh..thats whats up!!!

[ZBOIZ]

ZBOIZ...im from the new orleans, yeah i've been meanin to hit you up. cuz i noticed that you stay in b.r. huh..thats whats up!!!

Yep I'm in the B.R

[tland22]

L2 ur from BR??? i stay a half mile off LSU campus! LA in the house hahaha

[bearmz]

Upon further review, just hit Kan and Tulsa as well.
One thing I noticed while spanning the globe, a lot of players hit big on week 6 in college ball. If memory serves me well, buyer beware.
Here's to another strong weekend of plays, pags and thanks for original analysis.

[L2Gunz]

nah...im from new orleans, but yeah im glad to see some instate gamblers...

[VegasDave]

Thanks pags...

I love that you are so calculating in your capping and write-ups, yet still superstitious

Good luck this week!

[bumppinee]

great write ups pags.

[Jimmydafreak]

Pags let's steam-roll the books this weekend like Brandon Jacobs steam-rolled LeRon Landry!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_jBplbajbg

FREAK OUT!!!