Pags' Plays 10/11

pags11 · 10-06-08, 09:22 PM

PLAY NUMBER SIX:

Northwestern +3 (+100) for 3 units

pags11 · 10-06-08, 09:22 PM

PLAY NUMBER SEVEN:

Tulsa -25 (-102) for 3 units

Always Somethin' · 10-06-08, 09:24 PM

Thanks for the picks Pags sucks all the kids who come in here and try to ruin threads.

abc · 10-06-08, 09:31 PM

Nice picks, pags. LSU is at +5.5 for me, which is even better. gl this week. Let's hit the books hard!

SportNut · 10-06-08, 09:36 PM

What's every thought on the thread about Jesus pick? I see bunch of poster who got no more than 50 posts, look like a promotion to me. no offense.

pags11 · 10-06-08, 09:38 PM

lout,

week four...thank you bud...

ralphie,

thanks man...

abc,

yeah, I run my business during the day...I try to put these up as soon as possible...

dbldown,

yep, good observation...

tpowell,

good to hear you like those games as well...

taurus,

glad that you have done so well the past couple of weeks and thanks regarding the picks...I always appreciate your posts...I'm just trying to pick winners bud, no different than what I've tried to do the last 24 years...I think as markets continually change, you have to change with it...

i'm rich,

thank you sir...

always something,

the mods should take care of that...

abc,

glad we will be on LSU together...

pags11 · 10-06-08, 09:40 PM

sportsnut,

I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but if you are implying that I have ghosts I can assure you that's not the case...

pags11 · 10-06-08, 09:44 PM

rjt,

I am impressed with how Illinois is playing, but don't have them on the card this week...

casper,

Kansas is better than you think...they woke up last week...they are getting healthier each week as well...will comment more in my write-up on Thursday...

jackpot,

thank you very much...

always something,

rarely do I advocate buying a half point, but with the TCU game I wouldn't be opposed to it...

SportNut · 10-06-08, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by pags11

sportsnut,

I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but if you are implying that I have ghosts I can assure you that's not the case...

Oh sorry about this is the link.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/99693-monday-nite-picks-vegas.html

abc · 10-06-08, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by SportNut

Oh sorry about this is the link.
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...cks-vegas.html

FBJ does NFL doesn't he?

pags11 · 10-06-08, 10:29 PM

sportsnut,

ok man, just didn't know what you meant...

nevadaside · 10-06-08, 10:44 PM

hey pags,
haven't checked in w/you yet this season since you have so many posts to reply to all the time. Always a pleasure seeing you KILL the Books. Hate when I have to go against you though......really thought the KU/ISU game would be your only defeat last weekend..........NOT.....& so I LOST instead. I believe that traveling coming off a bye was no good for KU which was fairly evident in the 1stH. Glad to see you on KU this time around.

Stay well..........

pags11 · 10-06-08, 10:48 PM

nevadaside,

thanks for stopping by...yeah, you pretty much nailed it with that Kansas vs. ISU game...Kansas sure woke up in the second half didn't they?...glad we will be on the same side with them this week...

PerfecTrader · 10-06-08, 11:00 PM

Pags~

Simply incredible weekend, again. I'm riding your tail till the wheels fall off and if by chance they do, I'll buy you new wheels and ask if you can gimme a lift

Your work is nothing short of incredible, here's to hoping for continued success

Thanks again for all your hard work

tobycsh39 · 10-06-08, 11:02 PM

Pags,

Man I sure was waiting for you to jump on Northwestern and Tulsa. Just had the feeling you would and am damn glad you did. Good luck!

SportsLockPicks · 10-06-08, 11:12 PM

Can we get a consolidation of the plays?

SportsLockPicks · 10-06-08, 11:15 PM

how many plays do you release? and what is your lowest and highest units played?

pags11 · 10-06-08, 11:40 PM

perfectrader,

I really appreciate you saying that...you're a good man...

toby,

you have good instincts my friend...glad we will be on those two together...

sport,

I'm pretty superstitious and am not planning on changing the format at this point...thanks for your understanding...I make seven plays a week usually, my max play is for 3 units...

The Seer · 10-07-08, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER FIVE:

Hawaii -7 (-102) for 3 units

Pags, after seeing Hawaii last week, I don't have a lot of confidence in them. Sure, they beat Fresno but that score is misleading. Fresno committed 6 costly TOs and had 2 of their best players out. They outgained Hawaii by almost 200 yards and their kicker missed 2 or 3 big kicks including what should have been 2 game winners. I don't know if I have ever seen 1 team give another team a win on a silver plate quite like Fresno did. Hawaii had roughly 170 yards passing while Fresno moved up and down the field getting 318 rushing yards but turned it over seemingly each time. On the flip side, Hawaii will be at home and it is a long trip for LT which sports the worst pass defense in the country giving up 344 yds per game. I'm just not sure Hawaii's passing game is very good and it looks like their run D sucks quite frankly. It's a hard read for me on this game. Congrats last week and good luck this one.

onthewhat · 10-07-08, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by The Seer

Pags, after seeing Hawaii last week, I don't have a lot of confidence in them. Sure, they beat Fresno but that score is misleading. Fresno committed 6 costly TOs and had 2 of their best players out. They outgained Hawaii by almost 200 yards and their kicker missed 2 or 3 big kicks including what should have been 2 game winners. I don't know if I have ever seen 1 team give another team a win on a silver plate quite like Fresno did. Hawaii had roughly 170 yards passing while Fresno moved up and down the field getting 318 rushing yards but turned it over seemingly each time. On the flip side, Hawaii will be at home and it is a long trip for LT which sports the worst pass defense in the country giving up 344 yds per game. I'm just not sure Hawaii's passing game is very good and it looks like their run D sucks quite frankly. It's a hard read for me on this game. Congrats last week and good luck this one.

Hey man, not hating on you or anything but I'm pretty sure Pags knows how the game played out and capped the game. He isn't drawing out of a hat, sure there is a chance this pick could be a loser but I would trust pags on this one.

The Seer · 10-07-08, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by onthewhat

Hey man, not hating on you or anything but I'm pretty sure Pags knows how the game played out and capped the game. He isn't drawing out of a hat, sure there is a chance this pick could be a loser but I would trust pags on this one.

Normally, I specialize in SEC play but I've been looking at this game and a few others today and had some trouble getting a read on it. I wondered what another angle someone else was looking at it. Just getting feedback, nothing more, nothing less.

clowncar · 10-07-08, 12:54 AM

Look forward to your writeups thursday night as usual.

I have said it before , You are arguably the best CFB handicapper on the internet.

Continued success , my friend.

The Seer · 10-07-08, 01:12 AM

Also, Pags, I'm looking at Vandy getting upset this week but I haven't pulled the trigger on that one yet.

bfour · 10-07-08, 01:15 AM

LSU is +6 now.....

pags11 · 10-07-08, 01:32 AM

seer,

I watched the entire Fresno vs. Hawaii game...I'm just wondering whether you did or not...I say that because there is only so much you can get out of a box score...if you saw what I saw from them, along with what I've seen from La. Tech lately you might understand my play more...I'll elaborate more in my write-up on Thursday...at the current line I have no opinion on the Vandy vs. MSU play...

onthewhat,

I appreciate that...

clowncar,

thanks for stopping by...I greatly appreciate you saying that, means a lot coming from such an experienced and talented person as yourself...thanks for all of your input as it helps a ton...

bfour,

I have posted my matchbook play of +4 here as I've been doing of late...trust, though, that I was making my early plays at bookmaker when the openers came out, when LSU +6 was the line...obviously if I like the game at +4, getting a number like six is a great job on your part...

Jacey · 10-07-08, 01:44 AM

Well, got LSU @ +4, but at least the juice is +102, go Tigers

I.R.B · 10-07-08, 01:53 AM

Hawaii wins by 2 td's

yisman · 10-07-08, 01:54 AM

pags, it would be much simpler if you simply edited your plays into the first post.

I.R.B · 10-07-08, 01:56 AM

Pags hows Vandy @ -3... You not playing this?

Kingctb27 · 10-07-08, 01:59 AM

Once again, thanks for the capps, pags...

Got a question for you and everyone else on the Northwestern play... You guys are not scared of Ringer running all over that defense? Iowa had it's way running against NW and I'm not so sure that Ringer won't either....

Thoughts?

Kingctb27 · 10-07-08, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by I'm Rich Biatch

Pags hows Vandy @ -3... You not playing this?

Vandy is -1.5 at Matchbook. I just jumped on it as well as 5 of Pags plays as well excluding LSU and Northwestern... The line for LSU will go up I am almost certain.

madworld · 10-07-08, 02:10 AM

Pags,
Love the Kansas and LSU picks, I will be all over those. Seriously considering Hawaii, but will wait for the write-up to finalize my decision. Great Job last week!

Pantherfoot2 · 10-07-08, 03:50 AM

Originally posted by yisman

pags, it would be much simpler if you simply edited your plays into the first post.

Someone, or a few people last week said the same thing. The man politely indicated that he prefers not to based on superstition and that the week before was brilliant so he wasn't going to buck the trend. He went 7-0.

TPowell · 10-07-08, 06:51 AM

I think Pags might be picking AGAINST Lou. Tech. Those guys looked like they'd never played before and I dont think they'll beat Hawaii, especially AT Hawaii.

diogee · 10-07-08, 07:03 AM

Good luck this week Pags. I posted your picks up for someone across the street since I wasn't sure when Gyno would get around to it and someone was asking. I hope you don't mind. Keep up the good work.