Pags' Plays 10/11

**beaneaters** · 10-05-08, 07:46 PM

I know myself, and a horde of others, will be looking for them.

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 07:59 PM

gentlemen,

let's stay focused...

**thegambler86** · 10-05-08, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by pags11

gentlemen,

let's stay focused...

Pags I love Tulsa over SMU big time. Hopefully, you will too. Congrats on the great week. I was huge on PSU, Tulsa, and Arizona. Well done man.

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 08:27 PM

gambler,

thank you...congrats on a great weekend...still in the process of finalizing everything...will keep you posted...

**etothep** · 10-05-08, 08:30 PM

i was a little hesitant about how your week would turn out when i saw all that chalk, but damn pags

GL this week man

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 08:44 PM

etothep,

thanks bud...

**Dbldown11** · 10-05-08, 08:46 PM

Let's kill those books again this week Pags, and keep this thing rolling. I've already posted a huge list of leans....A lot of lines jumped out at me initially

**tobycsh39** · 10-05-08, 08:52 PM

Pags,

Hey man, good luck this week and thanks for all your support and advice. Hopefully we tear it up again this week. Good luck and looking forward to your picks, got a few ideas on who you might bet so far.

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 09:22 PM

dbldown,

sounds like a plan...I'll take a look at that list...

toby,

no problem at all...I enjoy helping a good young capper like yourself...

**bosterosoy** · 10-05-08, 09:24 PM

Looking forward to it. Last week was unreal, perfectly capped. The games seemed to use your write ups as a script.

**Jacey** · 10-05-08, 09:51 PM

Hope you have many more days like yesterday!

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 10:05 PM

bosterosoy,

I appreciate you recognizing that...

jacey,
thanks very much...

**SoonerBS** · 10-05-08, 10:13 PM

Pags, even though the score didn't indicate it, Oklahoma State didn't have a stellar game on offense. Texas A&M committed 5 first half turnovers in the game. The offense was a little uneven and for the first time this season, Oklahoma State went without a 100 yard rusher.

The good news is that the defense stepped up this game and forced the turnovers as well as some 3 and outs for the game. The defense continues to improve.

Pags, Gundy has been running a very vanilla offense all season so far. The reason is because he hasn't had to get too fancy just running over people and throwing the ball to Dez Bryant. I think the "real" playbook comes out of storage this week against Mizzou.

I'm mentioning this for this reason -- Mizzou's defense has not been tested this season. I can very easily see Oklahoma State matching Mizzou's scoring. Even if Oklahoma State doesn't have a stellar defensive performance, I'm not sure Mizzou can stop Oklahoma State. +13.5 points is way too many points to give two teams that I see pretty even offensively and defensively. I think this line has a possibility of going up to +14 or +14.5 before it's through.

What are you thinking?

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 10:31 PM

soonerbs,

I respect your analysis here, but I just can't get in Missouri's way, even with Oklahoma St...I'll be intersted to hear your thoughts on other games this week...

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 10:31 PM

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

TCU -14 (-110) for 3 units

**SoonerBS** · 10-05-08, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

TCU -14 (-110) for 3 units

Wow! I don't think I have ever seen you lay DD road chalk before. You feeling alright, Pags? Not that I don't disagree with you here because I fully see your reasoning behind it even though you haven't listed any reasons.

I stepped out and made an "off the cuff" play on BYU Friday night last week. It was a stupid play. I knew better in making it before I made it, but I still made it. I guess I needed to remind myself how foolish it is to make a play on a DD road dog without researching it and studying it well in advance.

That said, I know you researched this one. Colorado State had a big win for them last weekend and now it's time to come back to reality against a TCU team that could very easily win the rest of their games this season. I'll cheer it on for you, Pags . . . . . .

**Thorpe** · 10-05-08, 10:42 PM

Any opinion on these favorites?

Utah -22.5 - Wyoming is dead in the water
Nevada -19 - don't think NMSt can stop the pistol
Tex Tech -20.5 - Nebraska D won't stop Leach from running up the score
Ore St -29.5 - WSU can't stop the run or pass

**dave11486** · 10-05-08, 10:47 PM

soonerbs,

pags actually popped his double digit road chalk cherry last week with PSU...try to say that five times fast

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 10:54 PM

soonerbs,

I had Penn St. -12 last week bud...I appreciate the support...

thorpe,

no opinion on those four games...

dave,

not much gets by you man...

**SoonerBS** · 10-05-08, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by dave11486

soonerbs,

pags actually popped his double digit road chalk cherry last week with PSU...try to say that five times fast

**SportNut** · 10-05-08, 11:01 PM

Oommm.....Oommm.......No distracted comments please, let the Pags-man stay focus on capping his winning picks....Oommm.....good for you.....good for me....oommmm....

**bumppinee** · 10-05-08, 11:02 PM

pag im with you after this amazing weekend i had, lets gets the books again.

**Dbldown11** · 10-05-08, 11:06 PM

Big road favs are always risky....But I really like this pick Pags. TCU has a great defense. CSU shouldnt put up more than 10 points, and TCU should be able to score against CSU's defense

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 11:13 PM

sportsnut,

bumppinnee,

sounds like a plan...

doubledown,

I agree with your analysis on the TCU vs. CSU game...

**mv09** · 10-05-08, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by SoonerBS

Pags, even though the score didn't indicate it, Oklahoma State didn't have a stellar game on offense. Texas A&M committed 5 first half turnovers in the game. The offense was a little uneven and for the first time this season, Oklahoma State went without a 100 yard rusher.

The good news is that the defense stepped up this game and forced the turnovers as well as some 3 and outs for the game. The defense continues to improve.

Pags, Gundy has been running a very vanilla offense all season so far. The reason is because he hasn't had to get too fancy just running over people and throwing the ball to Dez Bryant. I think the "real" playbook comes out of storage this week against Mizzou.

I'm mentioning this for this reason -- Mizzou's defense has not been tested this season. I can very easily see Oklahoma State matching Mizzou's scoring. Even if Oklahoma State doesn't have a stellar defensive performance, I'm not sure Mizzou can stop Oklahoma State. +13.5 points is way too many points to give two teams that I see pretty even offensively and defensively. I think this line has a possibility of going up to +14 or +14.5 before it's through.

What are you thinking?

I agree, which is why it was the first and quite possibly the last, time I bet in favor of A&M. I couldnt have accounted for 2 defensive touchdowns and a punt return for TD. Overall, on the field, it wasnt as bad as the score indicated.

**TPowell** · 10-05-08, 11:23 PM

pags what do you think about Auburn/Arkansas. Arkansas got killed by Florida at home and this game is at Auburn. The line is even less (19)

Also Tulsa plays at SMU and is favored by 24. Tulsa should at least get in 60's against SMU (Rice got in the 70's)

I know Texas A&M is terrible, but getting 3.5 at home against Kansas State should be fine. K-State has been overrated all year

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 11:45 PM

mv,

I was impressed with Texas A&M's fight, but in the end the mistakes by then combined with Oklahoma St.'s offense wearing them down were too much...

tpowell,

I have no opinion on the Auburn vs. Arkansas game or the Kansas State vs. Texas A&M game...laying 25 with Tulsa seems like a lot doesn't it?...

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 11:47 PM

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

Kansas -14 (-102) for 3 units

**TPowell** · 10-05-08, 11:47 PM

it does but Tulsa is the REAL BCS Buster and SMU gave up 70 to Rice and we all know what happened when Rice played Tulsa. I literally think that Tulsa hangs 70+ on SMU

**The Horse** · 10-05-08, 11:48 PM

the arkansas/florida game was actually closer than the score shows. arkansas had a good amount of yardage on offense for the game. also, im not sure auburn can score 19 points...arkansas will probably be one of my top picks this week

**etothep** · 10-05-08, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Also Tulsa plays at SMU and is favored by 24. Tulsa should at least get in 60's against SMU (Rice got in the 70's)

rice got in the 70s against north texas, not smu

edit: a team tulsa "only" got 56 on

**TPowell** · 10-05-08, 11:55 PM

that is true, for some reason I thought it was SMU. Either way I think Tulsa drops 70+ on SMU. That SMU defense is a joke and Tulsa has an incredible offense

**pags11** · 10-05-08, 11:56 PM

tpowell,

I understand what you are saying...

the horse,

you are right about the late TD's by Florida...

etothep,

that is correct...

**The Horse** · 10-06-08, 12:00 AM

to add to my comments on auburn...if there wasnt a fumble in the endzone tennessee would have beaten auburn at home. tennessee is awful, (i know, i went there and am a fan) tennessee beat norhern illinois 13-9 at home last week. auburn's offense is atrocious. dont think they cover the 19 that i am getting

i'm big on the pig this weekend