Machine Choice and the Heaven's Gate Bankroll System

[punkbhstl]

Thanks for the Arkansas St pick!

[lesterdymond]

Solid pick Machine

[riffraff24]

After looking at the World Series matchup in Game 1, I do not see value in taking either team or the total, although I lean under 7.5...I capped it to 6 total runs. Therefore, no play for me....I will wait until football on Thursday night. I am not going to take foolish chances with this win streak. I want to keep it going.

Machine - Thanks so much for taking the time to do all this. Not only are you giving great picks with reliable analysis, you are teaching me to be more responsible with my bankroll. Thank you

[Seaton420]

You are a freakin MACHINE!

[ddavidson1173]

Legit

After looking at the World Series matchup in Game 1, I do not see value in taking either team or the total, although I lean under 7.5...I capped it to 6 total runs. Therefore, no play for me....I will wait until football on Thursday night. I am not going to take foolish chances with this win streak. I want to keep it going.

That's why you should be taken seriously. Your wins speak for themselves, but the fact that you are disciplined in you money makes it obvious you're not a fly by night guy.

Haters gonna hate.

[mp5070]

[eleuropeano]

Exceptional betting work all around here, kudos machine.

[skjjb4]

Nice run

[hydrosmak]

I am thinking of going with this bankroll management system (Heaven's Gate) but bringing it to the hockey forum. See how it works for me for a few weeks.

[Time2Score]

Keep up the great work Machine! I think I'll pull the trigger for a small play on the cards TT.

[Brutus84]

So if he loses his next bet which is like 1/5 of his bankroll what would the next bet be? It seems like it could be gone fast with a bad streak

[TomJSports]

So if he loses his next bet which is like 1/5 of his bankroll what would the next bet be? It seems like it could be gone fast with a bad streak

The bet would jump back down to whatever 1/11th of his bankroll is.

[riffraff24]

So if he loses his next bet which is like 1/5 of his bankroll what would the next bet be? It seems like it could be gone fast with a bad streak

He would start over dividing his new Total bankroll by 11. So if his new bankroll is 4k, his next bet would be back down to 363. The idea is to bet more when you're on a winning streak and low when you're on a losing streak.

[TomJSports]

He would start over dividing his new Total bankroll by 11. So if his new bankroll is 4k, his next bet would be back down to 363. The idea is to bet more when you're on a winning streak and low when you're on a losing streak.

Exactly what he stated.

I am intrigued by this management strategy and will probably use it when I start a new book. Decreasing when you're on a losing streak and increasing on a winning streak is simple, but not many people follow it. And you can fall into danger of capping too many games, this will limit it as well, with one play pending at a time.

Interestingly here are the numbers for HG if you start with $1000 and go on a 30 game winning streak. The interesting thing is that the limit of every even bet is one-third and every odd bet is one-half. Sure that loss would sting, but the money you'd make more than makes up for it.

Bet Number Bankroll Bet % of BR
1 $1,000.00 $90.91 9.09%
2 $1,090.91 $90.91 8.33%
3 $1,181.82 $181.82 15.38%
4 $1,363.64 $181.82 13.33%
5 $1,545.45 $363.64 23.53%
6 $1,909.09 $363.64 19.05%
7 $2,272.73 $727.27 32.00%
8 $3,000.00 $727.27 24.24%
9 $3,727.27 $1,454.55 39.02%
10 $5,181.82 $1,454.55 28.07%
11 $6,636.36 $2,909.09 43.84%
12 $9,545.45 $2,909.09 30.48%
13 $12,454.55 $5,818.18 46.72%
14 $18,272.73 $5,818.18 31.84%
15 $24,090.91 $11,636.36 48.30%
16 $35,727.27 $11,636.36 32.57%
17 $47,363.64 $23,272.73 49.14%
18 $70,636.36 $23,272.73 32.95%
19 $93,909.09 $46,545.45 49.56%
20 $140,454.55 $46,545.45 33.14%
21 $187,000.00 $93,090.91 49.78%
22 $280,090.91 $93,090.91 33.24%
23 $373,181.82 $186,181.82 49.89%
24 $559,363.64 $186,181.82 33.28%
25 $745,545.45 $372,363.64 49.95%
26 $1,117,909.09 $372,363.64 33.31%
27 $1,490,272.73 $744,727.27 49.97%
28 $2,235,000.00 $744,727.27 33.32%
29 $2,979,727.27 $1,489,454.55 49.99%
30 $4,469,181.82 $1,489,454.55 33.33%

[bigcmo]

you da man

just wanted to let you know your work is greatly appreciated. keep up the good work, even thru rough spots keep your eyes on the prize.

[SteelerNation704]

I believe the idea is to raise the wager 50% after 2 wins. It looks like you were raising the bets 100% in this scenario.

[Machine Choice]

Exactly what he stated.

I am intrigued by this management strategy and will probably use it when I start a new book. Decreasing when you're on a losing streak and increasing on a winning streak is simple, but not many people follow it. And you can fall into danger of capping too many games, this will limit it as well, with one play pending at a time.

Interestingly here are the numbers for HG if you start with $1000 and go on a 30 game winning streak. The interesting thing is that the limit of every even bet is one-third and every odd bet is one-half. Sure that loss would sting, but the money you'd make more than makes up for it.

Bet Number Bankroll Bet % of BR
1 $1,000.00 $90.91 9.09%
2 $1,090.91 $90.91 8.33%
3 $1,181.82 $181.82 15.38%
4 $1,363.64 $181.82 13.33%
5 $1,545.45 $363.64 23.53%
6 $1,909.09 $363.64 19.05%
7 $2,272.73 $727.27 32.00%
8 $3,000.00 $727.27 24.24%
9 $3,727.27 $1,454.55 39.02%
10 $5,181.82 $1,454.55 28.07%
11 $6,636.36 $2,909.09 43.84%
12 $9,545.45 $2,909.09 30.48%
13 $12,454.55 $5,818.18 46.72%
14 $18,272.73 $5,818.18 31.84%
15 $24,090.91 $11,636.36 48.30%
16 $35,727.27 $11,636.36 32.57%
17 $47,363.64 $23,272.73 49.14%
18 $70,636.36 $23,272.73 32.95%
19 $93,909.09 $46,545.45 49.56%
20 $140,454.55 $46,545.45 33.14%
21 $187,000.00 $93,090.91 49.78%
22 $280,090.91 $93,090.91 33.24%
23 $373,181.82 $186,181.82 49.89%
24 $559,363.64 $186,181.82 33.28%
25 $745,545.45 $372,363.64 49.95%
26 $1,117,909.09 $372,363.64 33.31%
27 $1,490,272.73 $744,727.27 49.97%
28 $2,235,000.00 $744,727.27 33.32%
29 $2,979,727.27 $1,489,454.55 49.99%
30 $4,469,181.82 $1,489,454.55 33.33%

This is wrong. The third bet above would be about $135 not $181. The idea is to increase your bet size by one-half the previous bet after two wins in a row. And then after a loss just divide your remaining bankroll by 1/11 and start over.

[Machine Choice]

Heaven's Gate is not for people who bet on multiple games at the same time, or for people who are just looking to hit a certain win % and don't care about win streaks.

Under Heaven's Gate, the only way to make real money is to go on winning streaks of 3 or more games at a time. That only happens two ways: 1. limit yourself to the best one or two plays per day, and when I say the best I mean THE BEST. 2. Know how to handicap in the first place.

[usernametaken]

I have no discipline but I am going to give HG a shot

[Brutus84]

Well technically if I am correct, Machine broke the system when he did one of his baseball ML parlays for over $400 or whatever it was when he was down in his bankroll. If I understand this his bet should have been in the $100 range

[mp5070]

I may just follow you, **....

[Machine Choice]

Looking ahead to Thursday, I see that Criner is listed as questionable, so he'll be gimpy at best. And Arizona is breaking in the new interim coach. Probably too many unknowns on the 'Zona side. And UCLA is using Prince at QB which is typically an auto-fade. I probably will not touch the game.

Shifting to the UCF game, my NCAAF model shows UCF winning by 16 which is right where the number is. It will be hard for me to find any value in that game, but I'll try to find some angles that I haven't see yet.

[Brutus84]

9/25/11

ML parlay: Titans, Chargers, Steelers

$617 to win $481

This bet would have been against HG right? Against bankroll management I believe.

[ajee622]

is there a baseball play for today machine?

[Machine Choice]

Well technically if I am correct, Machine broke the system when he did one of his baseball ML parlays for over $400 or whatever it was when he was down in his bankroll. If I understand this his bet should have been in the $100 range

A 2-team ML parlay in baseball counts as a single play. You should wait for both games to conclude before making your next bet.

I violated Heaven's Gate when I placed a 3-team ML parlay in NFL for $600. I mentioned that already.

[Machine Choice]

Sometimes I will play concurrent games if there are two games I simply can't pass on. When that happens, in order to err on the side of caution, I always assume that the first game will result in a loss (for purposes of determining my wager on the other game). If it ends up winning, I raise my next wager by the appropriate amount.

[Machine Choice]

is there a baseball play for today machine?

No. There may be one tomorrow if I can't settle on the NCAAF matchups.

[Brutus84]

Regardless I still think UCLA at +4 is a steal. Should be close or Arizona getting blown out.

[TomJSports]

I believe the idea is to raise the wager 50% after 2 wins. It looks like you were raising the bets 100% in this scenario.

This is wrong. The third bet above would be about $135 not $181. The idea is to increase your bet size by one-half the previous bet after two wins in a row. And then after a loss just divide your remaining bankroll by 1/11 and start over.

Thanks, I mis-inputed the formula. Same principle, but odd bets approach a limit of 1/4 and evens a limit of 1/5.


Bet Number Bankroll Bet % of BR
1 $1,000.00 $90.91 9.09%
2 $1,090.91 $90.91 8.33%
3 $1,181.82 $136.36 11.54%
4 $1,318.18 $136.36 10.34%
5 $1,454.55 $204.55 14.06%
6 $1,659.09 $204.55 12.33%
7 $1,863.64 $306.82 16.46%
8 $2,170.45 $306.82 14.14%
9 $2,477.27 $460.23 18.58%
10 $2,937.50 $460.23 15.67%
11 $3,397.73 $690.34 20.32%
12 $4,088.07 $690.34 16.89%
13 $4,778.41 $1,035.51 21.67%
14 $5,813.92 $1,035.51 17.81%
15 $6,849.43 $1,553.27 22.68%
16 $8,402.70 $1,553.27 18.49%
17 $9,955.97 $2,329.90 23.40%
18 $12,285.87 $2,329.90 18.96%
19 $14,615.77 $3,494.85 23.91%
20 $18,110.62 $3,494.85 19.30%
21 $21,605.47 $5,242.28 24.26%
22 $26,847.75 $5,242.28 19.53%
23 $32,090.02 $7,863.41 24.50%
24 $39,953.44 $7,863.41 19.68%
25 $47,816.85 $11,795.12 24.67%
26 $59,611.97 $11,795.12 19.79%
27 $71,407.09 $17,692.68 24.78%
28 $89,099.78 $17,692.68 19.86%
29 $106,792.46 $26,539.02 24.85%
30 $133,331.48 $26,539.02 19.90%

[Machine Choice]

After looking at the World Series matchup in Game 1, I do not see value in taking either team or the total, although I lean under 7.5...I capped it to 6 total runs.

Well, I guess I should have played my baseball model tonight. It predicted the game total winner.

[riffraff24]

Well, I guess I should have played my baseball model tonight. It predicted the game total winner.

You sure did and i took it with my entertainment bet $.

[Machine Choice]

You sure did and i took it with my entertainment bet $.

RiffRaff, my baseball model predicts the Cardinals to win 4 to 2 in Game 2. It's 9-2 on the ML in the Postseason. I almost have to play this.

[riffraff24]

RiffRaff, my baseball model predicts the Cardinals to win 4 to 2 in Game 2. It's 9-2 on the ML in the Postseason. I almost have to play this.

So do you like the Cards rather than total under 8? I would assume so...

[Machine Choice]

So do you like the Cards rather than total under 8? I would assume so...

Yeah, because the ML has hit at 9-2 but the totals have only hit 10-6

[BMaddz]

Yeah, because the ML has hit at 9-2 but the totals have only hit 10-6

are the scores ever accurate. 4-2 should i throw the farm on exact score lol