NC picks '11

[CBASS]

In college football, a -4 will push about 3% of the time, while the -4.5 would lose... Every little bit helps.

Understood, but he sounded more confident in them is all. If I liked a team by a td or more, then I have no problem laying 4.5 pts.

[No coincidences]

Why would it matter if you already stated that Bama wins by a td or more?
Not knocking you, just curious.
Much props on your season so far. You're doing really well.

That's what I think, but LSU is a great team as well and a 3-4 point Bama win wouldn't be out of the question -- especially in a low-scoring game.

[suicidekings]

Understood, but he sounded more confident in them is all. If I liked a team by a td or more, then I have no problem laying 4.5 pts.

Personally, I would have no problem laying up to -6 on Alabama if that's where the market was sitting, however I suspect we're going to see the line dip overnight / early tomorrow morning before the gameday limits go up everywhere... Then the Tide will get hammered and after that, the line will never come back down to anything better than what we're seeing right now.

[CBASS]

That's what I think, but LSU is a great team as well and a 3-4 point Bama win wouldn't be out of the question -- especially in a low-scoring game.

Gotcha. Thanks for clearing that up. BOL to you No coin.

[No coincidences]

Gotcha. Thanks for clearing that up. BOL to you No coin.

[CBASS]

Personally, I would have no problem laying up to -6 on Alabama if that's where the market was sitting, however I suspect we're going to see the line dip overnight / early tomorrow morning before the gameday limits go up everywhere... Then the Tide will get hammered and after that, the line will never come back down to anything better than what we're seeing right now.

People who have watched both teams in depth, will hammer LSU. The only people betting Bama big are the ones trying to overthink the line on that game. They are all thinking: Bama has #1 D (which is meaningless considering LSU's D), Saban can't lose in revenge spot, Bama 26-1 at home, #2 team is favored over #1 (which is irrelevant, because it is only 1 rank lower, LOL. I have seen an unranked team favored at home over a #15 team on a number of occasions and that would be more significant). People are actually going to trust McCarron in a monster game against a great Defense who can bring pressure? That is just plain dumb IMO.

[suicidekings]

People who have watched both teams in depth, will hammer LSU. The only people betting Bama big are the ones trying to overthink the line on that game. They are all thinking: Bama has #1 D (which is meaningless considering LSU's D), Saban can't lose in revenge spot, Bama 26-1 at home, #2 team is favored over #1 (which is irrelevant, because it is only 1 rank lower, LOL. I have seen an unranked team favored at home over a #15 team on a number of occasions and that would be more significant). People are actually going to trust McCarron in a monster game against a great Defense who can bring pressure? That is just plain dumb IMO.

I can honestly say that none of your bullet points played a part in me backing Bama. We'll see tomorrow. Let's hope for a clean game and all close plays to be at good angles for straightforward video review.

[BigDofBA]

People who have watched both teams in depth, will hammer LSU. The only people betting Bama big are the ones trying to overthink the line on that game. They are all thinking: Bama has #1 D (which is meaningless considering LSU's D), Saban can't lose in revenge spot, Bama 26-1 at home, #2 team is favored over #1 (which is irrelevant, because it is only 1 rank lower, LOL. I have seen an unranked team favored at home over a #15 team on a number of occasions and that would be more significant). People are actually going to trust McCarron in a monster game against a great Defense who can bring pressure? That is just plain dumb IMO.

I wanted to take LSU ML but the fact that Bama was -4.5 maybe me second guess myself and as of now, I have no play.

I have rode the LSU train all season. That Oregon game was easy and I find it laughable people were saying Oregon was going to blow LSU out before the game. LSU has easily been the best team I have seen all season.

LSU has destroyed Auburn, Oregon, West Virginia, Florida, ect. They have been impressive. Alabama is really good but their resume doesn't even compare to LSU at this point. What is Bama's best win? A win over an overrated Arkansas team that kept turning it over?

I might play LSU right before kickoff. We shall see.

[CBASS]

I can honestly say that none of your bullet points played a part in me backing Bama. We'll see tomorrow. Let's hope for a clean game and all close plays to be at good angles for straightforward video review.

At least I'm giving some valid pts. What reasoning do you have for backing Bama other than 'Bama is so grrrreat and Saban is the bbbbest'. I get it, you're a stats guy or 'system capper'. LOL

[BigDan]

People who have watched both teams in depth, will hammer LSU. The only people betting Bama big are the ones trying to overthink the line on that game. They are all thinking: Bama has #1 D (which is meaningless considering LSU's D), Saban can't lose in revenge spot, Bama 26-1 at home, #2 team is favored over #1 (which is irrelevant, because it is only 1 rank lower, LOL. I have seen an unranked team favored at home over a #15 team on a number of occasions and that would be more significant). People are actually going to trust McCarron in a monster game against a great Defense who can bring pressure? That is just plain dumb IMO.

im betting them purely because they are the better team...none of that other stuff..all LSU backers wanna talk about McCarron against Tigers while i got some news, Lee damn sure isnt striking fear into Bama's d... hell at least McCarron is trusted by his own coach...do you trust Lee just because he hasnt made mistakes in a offense that has allowed for it to be easy? you think it gonna be easy in this one? i dont, and dont like being called dumb by some jerkoff that thinks McCarrron is so untrustworthy but Lee is gonna make the big plays needed to win this gm against another great d because why? what has Lee shown again?

[BigDan]

I wanted to take LSU ML but the fact that Bama was -4.5 maybe me second guess myself and as of now, I have no play.

I have rode the LSU train all season. That Oregon game was easy and I find it laughable people were saying Oregon was going to blow LSU out before the game. LSU has easily been the best team I have seen all season.

LSU has destroyed Auburn, Oregon, West Virginia, Florida, ect. They have been impressive. Alabama is really good but their resume doesn't even compare to LSU at this point. What is Bama's best win? A win over an overrated Arkansas team that kept turning it over?

I might play LSU right before kickoff. We shall see.

ever consider that Saban builds his team up until these type of gms, not worrying about ppls "style points"?

[CBASS]

I wanted to take LSU ML but the fact that Bama was -4.5 maybe me second guess myself and as of now, I have no play.

I have rode the LSU train all season. That Oregon game was easy and I find it laughable people were saying Oregon was going to blow LSU out before the game. LSU has easily been the best team I have seen all season.

LSU has destroyed Auburn, Oregon, West Virginia, Florida, ect. They have been impressive. Alabama is really good but their resume doesn't even compare to LSU at this point. What is Bama's best win? A win over an overrated Arkansas team that kept turning it over?

I might play LSU right before kickoff. We shall see.

GL to you Big D

[CBASS]

im betting them purely because they are the better team...none of that other stuff..all LSU backers wanna talk about McCarron against Tigers while i got some news, Lee damn sure isnt striking fear into Bama's d... hell at least McCarron is trusted by his own coach...do you trust Lee just because he hasnt made mistakes in a offense that has allowed for it to be easy? you think it gonna be easy in this one? i dont, and dont like being called dumb by some jerkoff that thinks McCarrron is so untrustworthy but Lee is gonna make the big plays needed to win this gm against another great d because why? what has Lee shown again?

Didn't call you dumb personally BigDan. Lighten up Bama fan, because obviously you are one.
For the record, Lee is going to torch that untested secondary.

[BigDofBA]

ever consider that Saban builds his team up until these type of gms, not worrying about ppls "style points"?

I disagree there. Saban scores as much as he can. The only game he didn't try to score a lot was against Kent State. While Saban "was building his team up" against Ole Miss, Vandy, and North Texas, LSU was destroying top 15 teams.

I have watch both teams play this season and have been a lot more impressed by LSU.

Both of these teams are really good but they're not great. When is the last time a great team didn't have a stud QB? This game might be a big let down for all of the hype it's receiving.

[CBASS]

ever consider that Saban builds his team up until these type of gms, not worrying about ppls "style points"?

Jacob Hester played for both Saban and Miles and was quoted as saying 'Miles is better in big games, because he gets the most out of his players...because he TRUSTS them. Saban puts pressure on you and makes you tight when you should be relaxed and confident'.


P.S. Saban is a fvcking douche.

[BigDofBA]

FYI, LSU is my second most hated team. This stems from the encounters I had with LSU fans when OU played them in New Orleans for the National Championship back in my college days.

On the other side, I had a great experience with Bama fans when they came to Norman in 2002 and I really like and respect their program.

Despite all of this, I still feel pretty strong about LSU in this game.

[BigDan]

Didn't call you dumb personally BigDan. Lighten up Bama fan, because obviously you are one.
For the record, Lee is going to torch that untested secondary.

Bama fan? not much of a fan of anyone, and personally hate the south..while you busy making more "dumb" fukkin assumptions about ppl..

the only reason i got hot is cause you wanna come in here and say In your stupid fukkin opinion anyone on Bama is "dumb". which is fine, imo anyone who wants to call someone dumb on the net because a difference of opinion is a little disrepectful bitch..it all good tho, take it easy, but yes i am talking directly to you "personally"..

[BigDan]

Jacob Hester played for both Saban and Miles and was quoted as saying 'Miles is better in big games, because he gets the most out of his players...because he TRUSTS them. Saban puts pressure on you and makes you tight when you should be relaxed and confident'.


P.S. Saban is a fvcking douche.

oh well between Jacob Hester saying that and you thinking Saban is a douche i must be totally off on who the better coach is...my bad, it all makes sense now..

Next tell me how much better LSU 3 backs are than Richardson.....

[BigDan]

I disagree there. Saban scores as much as he can. The only game he didn't try to score a lot was against Kent State. While Saban "was building his team up" against Ole Miss, Vandy, and North Texas, LSU was destroying top 15 teams.

I have watch both teams play this season and have been a lot more impressed by LSU.

Both of these teams are really good but they're not great. When is the last time a great team didn't have a stud QB? This game might be a big let down for all of the hype it's receiving.

These "top 15" teams LSU has been "destroying" are far from impressive to me. ore against physical ass team to start the season? bama would have done the same, WVU? really? sorry didnt impress me all that much as you could have put bama in those gms and same thing would have happened, well except Richardson would have like every record at this point cause these great teams lsu been beating are lacking a d to deal with the power run which in turn has made lsu look really great...

[CBASS]

Bama fan? not much of a fan of anyone, and personally hate the south..while you busy making more "dumb" fukkin assumptions about ppl..

the only reason i got hot is cause you wanna come in here and say In your stupid fukkin opinion anyone on Bama is "dumb". which is fine, imo anyone who wants to call someone dumb on the net because a difference of opinion is a little disrepectful bitch..it all good tho, take it easy, but yes i am talking directly to you "personally"..

I don't talk 'sh!t' over the net bro. I could hear your fvcking heartbeat if you knew I was near your b!tchazz.

[CBASS]

These "top 15" teams LSU has been "destroying" are far from impressive to me. ore against physical ass team to start the season? bama would have done the same, WVU? really? sorry didnt impress me all that much as you could have put bama in those gms and same thing would have happened, well except Richardson would have like every record at this point cause these great teams lsu been beating are lacking a d to deal with the power run which in turn has made lsu look really great...

....and Bama has been playing who? Stfu

[Doug C.]

when LSU beat Oregon, Oregon turned the ball over 4 times and LSU beat them by only 7, some of those turnovers were fluke. I think Alabama will win by at least 6 against LSU. LSU win over W. Virginia is not impressive. W. Virginia lost to Syracuse double digits.

[BigDan]

I don't talk 'sh!t' over the net bro. I could hear your fvcking heartbeat if you knew I was near your b!tchazz.

calling ppl "dumb" for having a difference of opinion is in fact "talking shit over the net" and rather disrespectful, something im sure you wouldnt do live and in color.. if you talked to me like that "near my b!tchazz" you wouldnt be hearing much of anything for long kiddo.. that is all...

[suicidekings]

At least I'm giving some valid pts. What reasoning do you have for backing Bama other than 'Bama is so grrrreat and Saban is the bbbbest'. I get it, you're a stats guy or 'system capper'. LOL

HUGE difference between being a quant guy and being a systems guy...

I've stated my opinions elsewhere. None of them involve any Saban love or other homer pride (I live several thousand miles away from Alabama/Louisiana), but they do involve stats. If you think stats have no value, then we'll agree to disagree.

The common theme that I've seen from LSU backers is a ridiculous amount of overconfidence in the idea that the Tigers are SO much better than the Tide, but they've offered nothing to back it up beyond talking about watching the film...

Trashing Alabama's schedule for having played Kent/North Texas when LSU played Northwestern State and Kentucky, lauding the success of beating WVU and Oregon but discounting Alabama winning over Penn State and Arkansas because "those teams suck", failing to note the contribution of LSU's +15 turnover margin to their success and key turnovers being critical in both the WVU & Oregon games, taking the Gators game as a huge win despite Florida playing a rookie QB and missing one of their stars after Alabama crippled them both in the previous game, etc. Generally only wanting to hear arguments that end in "LSU is awesome"...

Enough though. I'm done arguing, and I'm pretty sure NC doesn't need any more clutter in here. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[CBASS]

calling ppl "dumb" for having a difference of opinion is in fact "talking shit over the net" and rather disrespectful, something im sure you wouldnt do live and in color.. if you talked to me like that "near my b!tchazz" you wouldnt be hearing much of anything for long kiddo.. that is all...

May you have a profitable day. I show respect to others until they get sideways and then...well I fall for the bait and shake back. You don't know me and I sure as hell don't care to know you. Hopefully you will win more bets than you lose fights so you can retire early.

[CBASS]

HUGE difference between being a quant guy and being a systems guy...

I've stated my opinions elsewhere. None of them involve any Saban love or other homer pride (I live several thousand miles away from Alabama/Louisiana), but they do involve stats. If you think stats have no value, then we'll agree to disagree.

My fault Suicide. No offense man. I got riled up by that chump talking sh!t. There seems to be a lot of homer pride with that LSU/Bama matchup. You can tell, because the ones that are simply state: Roll Tide!!!!! or Geaux Tigers!!!!!!!. I have given information in detail. To each his own. Either way, I hope you do well today.

[suicidekings]

My fault Suicide. No offense man. I got riled up by that chump talking sh!t. There seems to be a lot of homer pride with that LSU/Bama matchup. You can tell, because the ones that are simply state: Roll Tide!!!!! or Geaux Tigers!!!!!!!. I have given information in detail. To each his own. Either way, I hope you do well today.

And you as well.

[No coincidences]

Cancel Iowa.

[No coincidences]

Iowa +4.5 2H (1U)

So pissed I dropped this one now.

[No coincidences]

Oregon State +21 (3U)

[No coincidences]

Early Saturday:

NC State +4 (3U)
Iowa +4 (2U) (cancelled )
Iowa +4.5 2H (1U)
Minnesota +28 (1U)

3-0, +5U so far today

[No coincidences]

30-14, +26.3U season

[No coincidences]

FYP

Hope you enjoyed getting those shoved up your ass you piece of shit.

[No coincidences]

Northwestern +11 2H (1U)

[Bullet Kays]

Nice day so far NC, I hit on the Iowa game as well. Just locked in Rutgers +3, Ark -5, and waiting on my big one Wake +14. Good luck the rest of the day.