Vinny V Season long CFB THREAD

[Vin_vermillion]

scratching the UCONN PLAY due to LM and changing it to Iowa St. Still a single unit play.

1 unit on ISU +4.5
1 unit on Boise St -20.5

[Vin_vermillion]

If you maKe your first Thousand on the cfb season and no one is around to see you cash in with you bookie, did you still make the $1000?


Now 15-10 (60%) +10.05 units on the year. ($1005) & +3.0 unit for this week.

I am just here to prove the 65% thing to big crappy daddy and a few others....

Hope you all are doing well this Saturday morning.

[Vin_vermillion]

SATURDAY FULL CARD UPDATED

Temple +8 (2)
miss -1.5 (2)
miami fl -3 (2)
tulsa +13.5 (3)
AZ +9.5 (3)
TEXAS -3.5 (1)
Navy +5 (1)
Colorado St +7(1)
Louisville +5 (1)

[mp5070]

Lets make it happen

[Vin_vermillion]

just added Notre Dame -6 for 2 units.

[Greyraptor]

Hey Vin, double check your Navy line because if you are only getting five points then you are getting screwed by your book. You should be getting at least +15 on them so I am thinking that you just mistyped your line.

[Vin_vermillion]

thanks brother - you are correct. i am just going to have to make note of it though because if I edit my thread now, people will accuse me of cheating on my picks and we dont want that drama now do we? lol

[Vin_vermillion]

My god is Ole Miss bad.

i wont make that mistake again...lol

[Greyraptor]

My god is Ole Miss bad.

i wont make that mistake again...lol

Don't feel too bad. Marc Lawrence had that as one of his "Power Plays" this weekend. I layed off of it because I just don't like Ole Miss against Vandy. But you weren't the only one that had that game today.

[Vin_vermillion]

SATURDAY FULL CARD UPDATED

Temple +8 (2)
miss -1.5 (2)
miami fl -3 (2)
tulsa +13.5 (3)
AZ +9.5 (3)
TEXAS -3.5 (1)
Navy +15 (1)
Colorado St +7(1)
Louisville +5 (1)
notre dame -6 (LATE ADD 2 UNITS)

Temple (W) +200
Ole Miss (L) -220
Miami Fl (W) +200
Tulsa (L) -330
Az (L) -330
Texas (W) +100
Navy (W) +100
Col St (L) -110
Louisville (W) +100
Notre Dame (W) +200

I WAS 3-0 GOING INTO SATURDAY, AND WENT 6-4 ON SATURDAY (9-4 ON THE WEEK), BUT LOST ON TWO BIG PLAYS.

I AM GOING TO SCALE BACK THIS WEEK AS PART OF THE ISSUE WAS CHOOSING TOO MANY GAMES (EVEN THOUGH i STILL WENT 9-4 ON THE WEEK. -.9 UNITS ON SATURDAY BUT UP 2.1 UNITS FOR THE WEEK

OVER ALL RECORD NOW: 21-14. 60%

BACK LATER WITH FULL RECORD UPDATE UNIT PLAYS. +9.15 UNITS FOR THE SEASON

[Vin_vermillion]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]update on units

4 unit plays = 1-0
3 unit plays = 2-2
2 unit plays = 8-6
1 unit plays = 10-5
1/2 unit plays = 0-1

21-14 over all, +9.15 units on the season. 60%
[/COLOR]

[Greyraptor]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]update on units[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]4 unit plays = 1-0[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]3 unit plays = 2-2[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]2 unit plays = 8-6[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]1 unit plays = 10-5[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]1/2 unit plays = 0-1[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]21-14 over all, +9.15 units on the season. 60%[/color]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/color]

Nice overall YTD so far Vin!

[Vin_vermillion]

Thanks Grey - you look to be doing well yourself....

Here is my PROBABLE card for this week:

Cincy -8 (1)
UCF +3 (1)
Toledo +2.5 (1)
Maryland -9.5 (1)
OSU -14.5 (2)
Cal +1.5 (2)
Bama -12 (2)
Oklahoma -22 (3)

what a crappy week of match ups. let conference play begin all ready. first four weeks of games have really been less than stellar match ups....

[Greyraptor]

I hear ya! Liking some of the plays you are on and my Thursday night game is Cincy -7 (-135).

[Vin_vermillion]

Did you buy that to -135 at -7? Just curious.

I'm just gonna roll with them straight at -7.5. Bol - was just curious.

[Vin_vermillion]

Or at 8 if that's what i get gametime.

[Greyraptor]

Did you buy that to -135 at -7? Just curious.

I'm just gonna roll with them straight at -7.5. Bol - was just curious.

Yes I did. Book had it at 7.5 and bought the hook down to 7. Not a big deal for me but 7 is the magic number and I figure if Cincy wins big (like I think they will) we both win, but if they only win by 7 for some strange reason, at least I get my money back.

[Vin_vermillion]

Backing down on tonights game to a half unit. Had it posted as a lean for CINCY BUT i AM NOT taking them now.

final play for thursday is 1/2 unit on nc state +7.5

[Greyraptor]

What made you second guess the side? Total should be a solid over if you are wavering on which side to take.

[Vin_vermillion]

What made you second guess the side? Total should be a solid over if you are wavering on which side to take.

Grey - I dont like the game at all. If I weren't a degenerate, I wouldnt even play it.

The intial pick seem liked Cincy easy, but the line didnt move up like I expected it to.

I am so back and forth on this game that I decided to do a (1/2 unit) $50 just for action bet - and not worry about whether or not I am right or wrong.

The basic answer is I expected this line to move to 8.5 and it didnt.....so I feel like something is wrong with my pick. You will see me waiver and switch sides like this once in a while when the line doesnt do what I expect. (see my first post here in this thread picking Nova earlier in the season and then changing the bet to temple - similar situation but I felt better about that one)

[Greyraptor]

Grey - I dont like the game at all. If I weren't a degenerate, I wouldnt even play it.

The intial pick seem liked Cincy easy, but the line didnt move up like I expected it to.

I am so back and forth on this game that I decided to do a (1/2 unit) $50 just for action bet - and not worry about whether or not I am right or wrong.

The basic answer is I expected this line to move to 8.5 and it didnt.....so I feel like something is wrong with my pick. You will see me waiver and switch sides like this once in a while when the line doesnt do what I expect. (see my first post here in this thread picking Nova earlier in the season and then changing the bet to temple - similar situation but I felt better about that one)

I gotcha! Well, I know what you mean. 71% of bets are on Cincy and 74% on the over, yet the line doesn't continue to trend upward as expected (except the over which opened at 56 and has climbed to over 60). Wish I had jumped on the over earlier but just going to lay off at this point.

[Vin_vermillion]

Exactly. And probably would be best if I just laid off as well but I just love the action. Especially in a game I have no rooting interest in Lol

[Vin_vermillion]

Not that it matters that much because I dont have a huge following here, but I am probably not going to post my picks here after this season.

Like Cincy all week, and when started reading some of the crap on this board, I changed my mind to NC State last minute.

This board messes with your had too much when you all ready know what the right play is.

From now on, I am just going to try to list my plays and ignore what is going on in other threads so that I can finish the year without screwing with my plays. Glad I only played a half unit at least.

HERE IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAYS CARD



FRI - UCF +3 (1)


Saturday
K State +13 (1)
W Michigan +13(1)
Toledo +2.5 (1)
Maryland -9 (1)
Notre Dame -7 (1)
Cal +1.5 (2)
Bama -11 (2)
Oklahoma -20 (3)
Texas A&M -4.5 (3 unit)
OSU -16 (3)

good luck all! - add one later if I see something so check back

[MartinBlank]

Like Cincy all week, and when started reading some of the crap on this board, I changed my mind to NC State last minute.

This board messes with your had too much when you all ready know what the right play is.

That is EXACTLY what happened to me my first year here. I would have a side lined up, and then I would read an injury report on here, or something I wasn't aware of---and I would find myself changing my selection.

Been there, Vin.

Don't leave the board, just trust your plays.

[Vin_vermillion]

Well I am stuck here for our 65 % bet anyhow for now. Lol.

Just pisses me off when I know a play and something stupid changes my mind.

Thanks for letting me know that though Martin and I will re evaluate at end of the season

[GoBlue23]

Like bama and A&M a lot. Also like Ohio St. this week too...hopefully a blowout will set up a low line for Michigan State when they face off next week. I think MSU will beat them soundly. BOL

[Vin_vermillion]

Like bama and A&M a lot. Also like Ohio St. this week too...hopefully a blowout will set up a low line for Michigan State when they face off next week. I think MSU will beat them soundly. BOL

Solid picks Blue. good luck to you also.

Yes - that line will be interesting to see. i usually have a pretty sound idea on OSU lines and Notre Dame line as far as the outcome. They are the two teams I follow the most. having grown up in Ohio but being a Notre Dame fan, I also follow Michigan a lot but can't figure them out as easily. Love to watch all three of those teams play though.

Any thoughts on Michigan this week? Haven't figured them out yet. seems like they should give SDSU a beat down and that is the way the line is trending.

[Vin_vermillion]

I really like Marshall this weekend also. I think I am going to throw 2 units on that as well +20.5.

adding Marshall +20.5

[GoBlue23]

Solid picks Blue. good luck to you also.

Yes - that line will be interesting to see. i usually have a pretty sound idea on OSU lines and Notre Dame line as far as the outcome. They are the two teams I follow the most. having grown up in Ohio but being a Notre Dame fan, I also follow Michigan a lot but can't figure them out as easily. Love to watch all three of those teams play though.

Any thoughts on Michigan this week? Haven't figured them out yet. seems like they should give SDSU a beat down and that is the way the line is trending.

I originally liked SDSU to keep in close in that game...but based on the line movement and a few other things I'm not so sure now. SDSU runs a 3-3-5 defense...Denard is a matchup nightmare for that defensive scheme. Also, a noon ET kickoff is usually tougher for a West Coast team. SDSU's RB is a stud...but if they get down by a couple scores they won't be able to run him. QB is solid too but they lost their top 3 WRs from last year. Plus it seems like this is the sexy pick for a upset this week...and as I'm sure you know, when the public loads up on a dog it usually turns out to be a bloodbath.

I still slightly lean SDSU...but based on these factors, and the line movement (like you mentioned) I am staying away from this game.

[Vin_vermillion]

staying away also.

Just added marshall, and I really want to bet OLE Miss +10 this week but I am getting too many games on the sheet....

[Vin_vermillion]

scratch the Marshall play. No clue what I was thinking and my card is getting too big.

I will play WVU game if day goes well - will be a late update.

[Greyraptor]

Not that it matters that much because I dont have a huge following here, but I am probably not going to post my picks here after this season.

Like Cincy all week, and when started reading some of the crap on this board, I changed my mind to NC State last minute.

This board messes with your had too much when you all ready know what the right play is.

From now on, I am just going to try to list my plays and ignore what is going on in other threads so that I can finish the year without screwing with my plays. Glad I only played a half unit at least.

HERE IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAYS CARD



FRI - UCF +3 (1)


Saturday
K State +13 (1)
W Michigan +13(1)
Toledo +2.5 (1)
Maryland -9 (1)
Notre Dame -7 (1)
Cal +1.5 (2)
Bama -11 (2)
Oklahoma -20 (3)
Texas A&M -4.5 (3 unit)
OSU -16 (3)

good luck all! - add one later if I see something so check back

Yeah, your gut was telling you right about last night before you switched out. I have learned to stick with my first gut instinct and own research. Other cappers insight is helpful and it is nice when their research lines up with mine, but if not, I just wish them luck and watch the game. I like your picks above by the way but a bit surprised you don't have LSU up there the way they have been doing lately.

[Greyraptor]

Like bama and A&M a lot. Also like Ohio St. this week too...hopefully a blowout will set up a low line for Michigan State when they face off next week. I think MSU will beat them soundly. BOL

Unfortunately for this Buckeye fan I think you are right. Still won't have Posey and Herron back for the game and Bauserman/Miller have not impressed me as a QB duo that can stand up to conference play.

[Vin_vermillion]

Adding a unit to OSU -17. Second 4 unit play of the season. Have a good Saturday all.

[Vin_vermillion]

Well I should have kept Marshall and it wouldnt have been such a bad week

Results for this past weekend:

Nc STATE +7 (1/2) L
FRI - UCF +3 (1) L (-1.65 units)


Saturday
K State +13 (1) W +100
W Michigan +13(1) W +100
Toledo +2.5 (1) L - 110
Maryland -9 (1) L -110
Notre Dame -7 (1) L -110
Cal +1.5 (2) L -220
Bama -11 (2) W +200
Oklahoma -20 (3) L -330
Texas A&M -4.5 (3) L -330
OSU -16 (4) W +400

lost 5.75 units on the week. 4-8 over all.

Takes me to 25-22 on the year. (53%) + 3.4 units on the season. Stick with me guys. one losing week out of four. Big week this week if you dare to stick with me.

Early Leans:
Thurs:
UtEP +17 2 unit
Pitt +3 2 unit

Friday
Byu -7 1/2 unit


Rutgers +2.5 1 unit
Minnesota +20.5 1 unit
Toledo +7 1 unit
Georgia -7 1 unit
Miami OH +13.5 2 units
South Carolina -10.5 1 unit
SMU +11.5 2 units
Va tech -7 3 units
Texas -9.5 4 units
Utah -7 3 units
Wisconsin -9.5 5 units
Ea carolina +6 3 units
UCLA +20.5 2 units

Will update unit records later.