I posted all af my picks on week 8 posted picks (11-4) thread . In fifteen years of betting and handicapping games this was the most successful day I have ever had percentage wise. I went 10-0 cashing for over 5,200 dollars. This puts my two week record on this site at 21-4. I have already began to look at the games for this week with a big one coming on tuesday with Boise State. Good luck to everyone next week. I will begin to give picks and analyze all of the games as the week goes on. This also solidifies my thoughts that the NFL is just too tough to pick and college is the way to go this year. The NFL has way too much parity this year with no upper level teams. Can't wait for week 9. Good Luck everyone!!
-
-
great job, keep it up
Comment -
I am not making a pick on this game yet, it is just too early but here are a couple of things to consider.......
Boise State 6-0 vs 3-4 Louisiana Tech
This will be only Boise states third home game of the year. A couple of things really worry me about this game.
1. weather
2. Boise state thinking about next week against a very good Hawaii team.
3. On the other side they will have almost 10 days off until that game.
4. Louisiana Tech is not that bad of a team. Obviously no on Boises level but they beat the teams they should and they lose to teams that they should.
5. Boise has the number 4 total offense in the country averaging 523 yards per game, going up against a defense that is ranked 113th giving up 448 yards per game.
6. Boise is ranked number 1 in total defense but that stat is very tainted. They have only played on good team all year, Virginia Tech, which they gave up 30 points.
7. Unfortunatley Boises achillies heel is them turning the ball over which they rank 12th in the country averaging +1 turnovers per game.
Again I am going to wait until tomorrow to make a pick. They are calling for the rain and the temperature to be in the low forties at game time. Gl any one playing Monday night football tonight.Comment -
Solid run this weekend!!Comment -
great job. with that winning % you are going to start getting assholes in your thread bashing you, so be prepared. good luck this week!
Comment -
Good luck with your picksComment -
Very nice weekend! Lookin forward to seeing your take on this weekends' games! BOL!
Comment -
Damn! Congrats.Comment -
Awesome job, keep them coming.Comment -
keep them coming!!!
Comment -
Great Run...may tail youComment -
No parlay? If so, better than Bill Gates. CongratsComment -
Boise State (6-0) -38.5 64 o/u vs Louisiana Tech 3-4
This is actually going to be a closer game (against the spread) than alot of people think. I posted yesturday about the effect that the weather might have on this game and from what I am seeing there will be about a 30 percent chance of rain and temperatures should be in the low forties for kickoff. The biggest problem that I see for this game is going to be how motivated Boise State is going to be to keep the accelerator to the floor. Louisiana Tech, for the most part is a young team with alot of players that are from the southern part of the United States that are not used to the cold and wet temperatures that they are going to experience tonight in Boise. The most disturbing stat for this La Tech team is going to be there defense. They rank 113th in the country giving up an average of 448 points per game. In there last game they played Idaho which put up a staggering 683 total yards against them. The interesting stat is that no one has put more than 48 points up against them all year. They have played some quality opponents this year including Southern Miss, Texas A&M, and Hawaii. Hawaii who has the number 1 passing offense in the country was only able to put up 41 against them which kind of scares me. However, on the other side of the ball Boise has all of the weapons. They are loaded with a great, smart Qb who has the experience and can take over a game at any time. They are averaging 47 points a game which I dont see them having a problem going over tonight if they want too. They also have the number one overall defense in the entire country. Granted the only team that they have played all year is Virginia Tech who put up 30 points on them. Since then there stiffest competition has been Oregon State who put up 24 against them.
This is a tough one because the line is so high. I obviously dont think that La Tech is on the level of a VT or an OSU but are they really as bad San Jose State or New Mexico State who Boise beat respectably by 59 and 48 points. I still think that you have to lay the points here and just hope that you can hold on. The advantage that you have with laying the points is that Boise will have to get style points to keep up with the big dogs in the BCS standings. I am a big believer in numbers and stats but the most important one tonight will be on the thermometer and how much motivation that La Tech when they are down by 24 at half. The most important posession in this game will be the first possession that La Tech has after half time. It will be cold and if they are down by that many points they might go ahead and start warming up the buses and head back to the warm confines of Louisiana. In the very end Boise should and will cover this monster spread.
Boise State 52 La tech 10
Good luck whichever way you go; this is not a strong bet. Its the beginning of the week and there are alot of good games on Saturday which are stronger plays. Thursday night will be one of my strongest plays of the week. I will have a full write up later on in the day.Comment -
I went back on your posts
you definitely had a great week .
You pick like I do and write like I do as well.
not many people will take you serious , but if they are looking for a journalist I say read a Newspaper
I use this site to talk me out of my picks
a lot of people here they like to read comments that agree with them and the opposite when ist not in their favor
I am just the exact opposite -when you stop betting from the heart you can make some money
after it was all said and done I had the same record with you or even a little better
but hit even better hit My top 7 biggest bets .
anyways take a look a my post
looks and leaners and let me know any that you dont like - if You dont mind
thanks in advanceComment -
I have honestly tailed you for the last two weeks now, and am grateful for the picks.
My only advice is to be humble and stay on target.
Your record will speak for itself, and if you're making money, it doesn't matter what anyone else thinks (so no need to boast.)
You're doing fantastic - keep up the great work. The goal here should be helping each other and making that green.Comment -
Florida State (6-1) -4 vs NC State (5-2)
I am very excited for this game on Thursday night on ESPN. To look at the teams you would naturally favor Florida State but I do not think that this is a good match up for Florida State at all. The thing that concerns me the most is the performance that FSU just put on display against BC last weekend at home. I have followed and won off of BC's losses all year and I have to tell you they are an awful football team on both sides of the ball which makes me wander what is going on with FSU right now. If you look at the record you would see that FSU has only one loss to Oklahoma on the road when they got dismantled and were never truly in the game from the very beginning. Now I will give them credit going into Miami two weeks ago and really dictating that contest from the very beginning to end is very impressive but Miami is struggling a litlle right now and they are not as strong as we all thought that they were. If FSU thinks they are going to be able to go into NC state and play that kind of game it is going to be a long night for them on Thursday. On the other side of the ball NC state is led by Russell Wilson who is toting the number 7 total passing offense in the country averaging over 312 yards per game. I also like that they are coming off a bye week which has given them plenty of time to prepare for this game. I stayed away from there last game where they were 7 point favorites on the road against a very good ECU team because it had upset written all over it. They did end up losing in overtime. The last time they played a nationally televised game this year, they absolutely destroyed Cincinnati on Thursday night 30-19. this will be a close game, by no means do I think that NC state can run away with this game. The coach from Nc state reported a great week of pratice so far and that his team is focused and ready to play against a very good FSU team. I think the home crowd, Thursday night football, coming off a short week, coming off a bad week, will be too much for FSU to overcome this week and pick NC State to win this game outright by 6 points.
NC State 31- FSU 25Comment -
West Virginia University (5-2) -6.5 vs Connecticut (3-4)
This is another line that is very favorable for everyone to make alot of money on. I picked Louisville last week to crush Uconn and we all saw how that game turned out. Probably the easiest pisk of the day other than the Hawaii game. Uconn has lost there starting quarterback for the year, they just got beat 26-0 on the road and now have to come home to what should be a very angry WV team in a big east conference game. Here are a couple of statistics to take a look at...
UConn...
1. ranked 102nd out of 120 teams in passing offense
2. Had a total of 187 yards vs Louisville ranked 43rd in total defense before there game. WVU is ranked 4th in total defense.
3. Connecticut QB threw the ball 20 times for 10 completions and 1 interception.
4. Connecticut is 3-0 at home.....big win Vanderbilt (2-5)
West Virginias biggest problem is not the players on the field but the coach that is leading them. He always lets teams hang around and seem like he can never finish teams off when he has the chance to. Luckily for him the Atheletes on the field will dictate the outcome of this game.Is Connnecticut that bad?? Yes they are! This will be another long day for the offense for Uconn. I really like this game and it should be in hand for WV by the middle of the 2nd quarter. I have lost and won on Uconn three times this year and this is not a good football team. I am actually very thankful that this game is on Friday night it gives all of us a great oppurtunity to play with ALOT of free money going in to Saturday.
West Virginia 35 Uconn 13Comment -
congrats to your success.All the best to you moving forward.Comment -
I have locked in six plays so far for this week...
My play rate is 1X= 300 US dollars
Boise State -38.5 1x
NC State +4 1X
WVU -6.5 3X
ECU vs UCF O/U53......Over 53 1X
Utah -7 2X
Hawaii -14 1X
I will have write ups on last three games by the end of the day. I am getting lines a little earlier this week before the lines move the wrong way for me in my opinion. I have went back and looked at the past couple weeks and I have found that the earlier lines might have helpled me on about 3 percent of my bets, which might not seem like much but every little bit helps. Good luck to everyone tonight and rest of the week.Comment -
like all those, great jobComment -
dont disagree with Your Boise state dont give me wrong
Im going to take the value
I have every reason in the world to agree with you , although recent years scores argue differentlyComment -
East Carolina (5-2) vs Central Florida (5-2)
I usually do not like to play the totals but I love this one. i have it right now as only a 1X pick but I will definetly be raising the bet if my 3x winner on friday night cashes. Let me throw a couple of numbers at you for this one....Central Florida has thrown up huge numbers the past three games with 42, 35, and 41 points. Thats an average of 39.3 points per game. For the season they are averaging 30 points per game. East Carolina has an absolutely horrible defense ranking 105th in the country. They are giving up an average of 35 points per game. East Carolina is averaging almost 36 points per game and in the last three they have put up 44, 33, and 37. That averages out to 38 points. I know that Central Florida has a very good defense but other than KSU and NC state who have they really gone up against that has a good defense. If you just put the two teams average points per game for the season next to each other they are at 67 points which is almost two touchdowns over the projected total. I love this play and should be at the total of 53 by the start of the fourth quarter. Again I don t normally play the totals but I love this play. Good luck to everyone if you make a play or not.Comment -
I just got a revised weather forecast for the game to night. I just got off the phone with my local guy and I have retracted my bet for tonights game. I was on Boise State -38.5 but there are just too many variables in this one and the forecast does not look good. Crazy things happen in this type of weather and like I said earlier there are just way too many other games to bet on this week. Good luck whichever way you guys go tonight, hope everyone can get off to a good start and win some money.Comment -
Best of luck to you and Congrats on your recent success. Just want to let you know that the Noles aren't on a short week, they were off as well. I'm sure this won't change your mind as you have the pack to win outright. I do have to say that I disagree with your selection on Thursday & will be on the other side. The BC game was a perfect let down situation for FSU & a game that they would have lost under the former regime. The team was able to overcome 4 3rd quarter turnovers & after being gashed in the first quarter, gave up only 28 rushing yards in the last 3. This is a much improved defense from early in the year that is very young & will continue to improve. One caveat, I am a Seminole alum. Once again, best of luck this weekend but I hope Thursday night is mine.Comment -
I agree with you 100 percent and apologize about my saying that FSU is on a short week. Looked at the dates wrong and I am the first one to admit when I am wrong or give a bad stat. Again this does not change my opinion of this game. The rush defense for FSU is not what worries me about this game for them. If you watched the OU game which I am sure that you did, FSU secondary was made to look silly at times and almost down right umbarrassing. Theygave up 394 yards in the air and OU's quarterback went 32-42 on the night. These are the numbers that scare me if you are pulling for FSU. needless to say NC states major form of offense is through the air. Wilson averages over 300 yards per game and should have a field day on Thursday night. IF.....FSU can't stop the run in the first quarter it could get ugly. Again I do believe it will be a close game because I think that FSU has a really underrated offense and should be able to put numbers on the board. Good Luck on FSU either way. It should be a great game on National TV. If the game was at FSU, I would be all over FSU at as high as 7 points. What I am trying to say is that I think FSU is a good team but just feel it is a better match up for NC state.Comment -
Man
I just got on my iPhone to retract my earlier bet
it seems as though Boise can beat la tch by what ever margin they want too
and that's a fact so value or not
I was writing to say I'm taking your pick
so at least I didn't have to kick myself if the score ended up being 60-10
now I guess if I Loose I will never know what I even liked
but I'm taking Boise tonight $2Comment -
Good luck man, either it's a close NC State win or the Noles win by at least 2 scores. My money is on the latter, but like I said, I'm a homer. Oklahoma went no huddle & screened us to death with one of the best RBs in the nation. I know that Wilson is good, but I'm betting on the growth of the young secondary & the speed of the team defense.Comment -
Utah (7-0) -7 vs. Air Force (5-3)
There are a million reasons to like this game but mine is pretty simple.....Utah is 7-0 against the spread this year....enough said. Even if I lose this one thats fine.I will keep riding them until I get bucked off. In all honesty, its not going to happen this weekend against a very mediocre Air Force team. I got sucked into this teams top 25 ranking two weeks ago against San Diego State and got my clock cleaned. i looked at the number one rushing offense and bet 900 and saw myself get desemated by, again a very average San Diego State team. Guess what, I learned my lesson from watching a QB that is above average pick Air Force apart and to top everything else off they were able to stop them pretty handily only giving up 25 points. Then last week I saw TCU hold this high powered running offense to 7 points. I hate too sound angry in this post but I hope Utah turns it up a notch, tops TCU's 31 point drumming of Air Force and beat them by 45. Utah is ranked in the top 5 in the nation in both offense and defense. They are averaging 47 points a game and only giving up 12 points on average. Utah is ranked number 6 in the country in stopping the rush and should have no problem stopping this weekend. The most important stat is going to be the fact that Air Force is ranked 110th in the country in rushing defense. This game should be over before the fourth quarter. I could go on and on....why this wont be close but I think this is enough to show anyone that this wont be close.
Utah 49 Air force 17Comment -
Hawaii (6-2) -14 vs Idaho (4-3)
I have been following this hawaii team the past couple of weeks and am really liking what I am seeing. Hawaii has the number 1 passing offense in the land and although there not that strong on the defensive side of the ball they are able to score enough points to play with anyone right now. What should be exciting about this game will be all of the points that will be scored, Idaho ranks fourth in the country in passing offense and will throw the ball 75 to 80 percent of the time. They are averaging 33 points a game and hawaii is averaging 38 points per game. Unfortunately they (idaho) have to cross the ocean to play this one which should be the difference. Nevada marched into Hawaii two weeks ago as 7.5 point favorites and Hawaii went up 14 points in the first ten minutes and never looked back. Hawaii showed me the most last week playing in the cold and the rain and beat Utah State by 31 as a 3.5 point favorite. I had this game and bet and won big. The 14 points does seem like alot but it shouldn't be. Idaho hasn't really beat anyone all year and Hawaii will be pulling out all the stops in preperation for there big showdown with Boise next weekend in Boise. Circle that game on your calander because if Boise playes the way that they did on Tuesday night against LA tech it could be upset city.
Hawaii 42 Idaho 23Comment
