Miami vs Pittsburgh (-3) Thursday game day discussion

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • hockey216
    SBR MVP
    • 08-20-08
    • 4583

    #71
    larry ness had this to say:

    I look for Miami to rebound with a much better effort after its mistake-filled 36-24 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago. The Hurricanes committed eight penalties and QB Jacory Harris threw four interceptions in that contest. After the game, Randy Shannon read his team the riot act. "I've never been a guy that just goes off," said Shannon. "But they needed it at that time because I was frustrated. ... Ohio State is a good football team, a great football team, but we made so many mistakes we didn't give ourselves a chance." While both Miami and Pittsburgh took last Saturday off to help prepare for this game, I expect the extra time off to have more benefit for the Hurricanes. After a 27-24 overtime loss in Utah to open the season, Pittsburgh followed that up with a 38-16 'scrimmage' over New Hampshire. The bye week has not been good for Dave Wannestedt's club, as off-campus altercations and a DUI have forced Wannestedt to suspend three players. Even worse, the Panthers' co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year in 2009, Greg Romeus, is out indefinitely after having surgery to repair a disc in his lower back. Without Romeus, Pittsburgh has only five starters from last season's defense and significant questions remain about their linebacking corps. Bigger questions exist with an offensive line that lost three interior lineman to graduation last season. This group has been largely ineffective so far this season. Freshman sensation RB Dion Lewis who rushed for 1,799 yards last season has only 102 yards on 35 carries in two games this season (that's 2.9 YPG). If Pitt cannot get Lewis going, the Panthers will have to rely on the arm of redshirt sophomore QB Tino Sunseri. Against Utah, the Pittsburgh offense managed only 266 total yards. While Sunseri has long term potential, the jury is still out on whether he is ready to carry the offense against a talented defensive unit like what he will face against the Hurricanes. Miami returns eight starters from a unit that was 3rd in the nation against the run and 4th in the nation in tackles for a loss in 2009. Defensive end Allen Bailey is a candidate to be an All American this season. He will test the suspect offensive line of the Panthers. On offense, Miami is loaded with playmakers. Senior RB Damien Berry averaged 6.6 YPC last season and has been getting the bulk of the carries this year. He is maintaining that level of production with his 6.3 YPC average for 139 yards. Speedy redshirt freshman Lamar Miller is also in the mix with his 5.2 YPC average this year (and a kickoff return for a touchdown against Ohio State). The top five wideouts return from last season to give Harris plenty of weapons. Harris must reduce his turnover rate and I expect for that to happen on the heels of that poor performance in Columbus. When Harris is good, he is very good, as he was 3rd in the nation last season in passing YPG. After years of strong recruiting classes. Shannon has loads of talent on this Miami roster. Harris will not have to force things in this game as he felt he had to against the Buckeyes. Miami's playmakers will be too much for a Pittsburgh team that has some big problems on and off the field right now. These schools haven't met since Miami left the Big East in 2004 but Miami won 14 of the last 15 meetings vs the two schools. Pitt's September 2 loss at Utah when Pitt was ranked No. 15 and Utah unranked, represents one of just FOUR losses in 56 meetings between ranked and unranked teams so far in 2010. So what else is new? Pittsburgh is only 1-10 against ranked non-conference foes going back to 1996. Why should I expect that trend to reverse itself on Thursday
    Comment
    • canes11
      SBR Rookie
      • 09-18-10
      • 8

      #72
      I like the under here, pitt should score no more than 10 against a very good miami d. this is all assuming that j12 plays like he is capable which i believe he will.
      Comment
      • aman86
        SBR MVP
        • 08-29-09
        • 3115

        #73
        Bingo !!

        Originally posted by pavyracer
        Special teams win this game. Miami scored 2 TD with special teams vs Ohio St and had 400 yards of offense. Pittsburgh will not cause problems with their below average defense and those TO's that Miami had with Ohio St will be points scored for Miami. My model has Miami scoring in the mid 30's and Pittsburgh scoring in the low 20's for this game which is good enough to cover the -3.5 bet.

        One more thing. If the line was Miami -2.5 then the sharp play was going to be Pittsuburgh but since the line is Pittsburgh +3.5 the sharp play is Miami. You see what the books are doing? If they give you Miami -2.5 you will hammer it but by giving you Pittsburgh +3.5 they are bating you to take the FG and hook for the home team. Classic cat and mouse game by the linesmakers. Well I have been around for many years and I ain't falling for the cheese.
        Comment
        • MrExacta
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-16-07
          • 662

          #74
          play

          I'm playing the under 49.5 at Greek.

          MrExacta -`
          Comment
          • mart59a
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-21-10
            • 936

            #75
            I'll take the faster more athletic Miami to cover.
            Comment
            • TexansFan
              SBR MVP
              • 09-06-06
              • 3365

              #76
              I'm thinking of Pitt TT under 23.
              Comment
              • Mattn3236
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-21-08
                • 841

                #77
                Miami turns this into a rout by third qtr.
                Comment
                • jhause13
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-27-07
                  • 464

                  #78
                  Being from Pittsburgh I get the chance to follow the Panthers a bit more than most. I know for a fact they don't have a solid QB in Tino Sunseri. This is his first season starting and hasn't caught up to the speed of the game just yet. Defense's have in fact been focusing 99.9% of their attention on Dion Lewis this season for that simple fact.

                  IMO Miami is just too fast for the Pitt offense. Sure, Harris did make quite a few poor decisions against the Buckeyes but Ohio State is a legitimate national championship contender. If Dion Lewis can't break away from this quick Miami defense and have a 100 yard and 3 TD game Pitt will lose this game quite handily on their home field.

                  I'm on Miami pretty big this game.
                  Comment
                  • Facepunch
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-17-09
                    • 2090

                    #79
                    Hoping to Squeak by with the under. got it early @ 50 (the Greek).
                    Comment
                    • Jakesteen
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 04-22-10
                      • 653

                      #80
                      Man there's a lot of stache haters here. He must have cost you guys a bundle o' benjamins.
                      I don't like him either.
                      Comment
                      • donkdown
                        Restricted User
                        • 07-09-09
                        • 4423

                        #81
                        I like Miami here
                        Comment
                        • gamemastere
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-15-10
                          • 1546

                          #82
                          miami for me, only question is how much
                          Comment
                          • GoggsViggs
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-05-10
                            • 1884

                            #83
                            i hate the 'stache
                            Comment
                            • msj0001
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-09-10
                              • 1562

                              #84
                              bought a point a put 3X on Miami -2.5...lets make some money
                              Comment
                              • rybread9
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 08-04-10
                                • 137

                                #85
                                I watched MIA lose to OSU in person, Shannon...frusterated, Harris...frusterated. 4 INT's vs OSU will be enough to motivate Harris, and Shannon won't let his guys lose 2 in a row. MIA defense will shut down Pitt. Mia offense only had 1 TD against OSU's D, snuck by 2 return TD's. I expect more offense production against Pitt, but like the under. MIA 24 Pitt 17
                                Comment
                                • gummo
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-04-06
                                  • 6297

                                  #86
                                  I think it's close.
                                  Comment
                                  • van1LLaDutch
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 09-23-10
                                    • 32

                                    #87
                                    miami is the lock.. no need to buy the half point im putting atleast 2 units on them

                                    If you dont like us dancing, dont let us into the endzone!
                                    Comment
                                    • Patrick McIrish
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-15-05
                                      • 2864

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by TexansFan
                                      I'm thinking of Pitt TT under 23.


                                      I like the looks of that myself....
                                      Comment
                                      • Patrick McIrish
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-15-05
                                        • 2864

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by Addicted2Cash
                                        patty i hear what you are saying and you make a lot of valid points in all your post in this thread, and i honestly can not stand taking public road favs (especially during the week) but i would argue that pit is every bit as poorly coached as mia is. harris is a turnover machine waiting to happen but i never know when those games are coming. on the other hand pit is so predictable and i just dont see mia having much of a problem shutting down the rushing attack and that is basically all pit has . tough game and if it was on sat i wouldnt even be considering it but i just can not back the stache in this contest, maybe under is the best play?


                                        I think under as well when it comes to the total, sharp post.
                                        Comment
                                        • thisisit
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 08-01-10
                                          • 733

                                          #90
                                          Miami reminds me alot of the Dallas Cowboys, they throw the ball so much even though they are much better at the running game, and so there are a ton of turnovers. Miami needs to run the ball down the panthers throat, then when the moment is right play-action deep!
                                          Comment
                                          • FishFace5
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-15-09
                                            • 1768

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by Plu$Money
                                            Yea nc state was home but the public pounded them so it seems like the books gave that play away. I'm just saying I don't think it will happen like that 2 weeks in a row when this is the only game it's gonna have alot of action on it
                                            Public was on the dog last week guy.
                                            So just to recap you've had both the home team and the public opinion wrong.
                                            great posting.
                                            I feel better about my miami pick just because this stooge is on Pitt.
                                            Comment
                                            • Mthorn
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-29-09
                                              • 588

                                              #92
                                              i expect miami to win by double digits honestly.
                                              Comment
                                              • Brock Landers
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 06-30-08
                                                • 45359

                                                #93
                                                who is that fukko Lang on?
                                                Comment
                                                • GoldRush7
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-27-09
                                                  • 2014

                                                  #94
                                                  the langster is on pitt. You know the drill...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Serbone
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-21-09
                                                    • 1300

                                                    #95
                                                    Originally posted by Rbyrne
                                                    Pitt is 1-10 against ranked, non-conference opponents since 1996.
                                                    But those players are gone.
                                                    This is a different team.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SCRAGGS
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-21-09
                                                      • 1969

                                                      #96
                                                      Miami BIG and a little less on the under.
                                                      GL boys, time to make some money
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Serbone
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-21-09
                                                        • 1300

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by GoldRush7
                                                        the langster is on pitt. You know the drill...
                                                        So you bet your hard earned money, fade a huckster's pick?
                                                        Not a very wise strategy.
                                                        You realize some of his picks are genuine, he wants to win, he needs to win, he HAS good info; others he loses on purpose once he gets to a certain point with his customers.
                                                        So go back and look at data, talent, injuries, offense, defense, matchups, trends, motivation, etc. and drop the "Fade Lang" foolishness.
                                                        And take Pitt + 3.5.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stealinhome
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 10-23-09
                                                          • 977

                                                          #98
                                                          I like the under
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ZephyrM
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 09-23-10
                                                            • 51

                                                            #99
                                                            Miami -3 for me. Harris doesn't throw the picks tonight I am hoping and the Canes pick up a big road victory.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Joe_Shabadoo
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 09-17-09
                                                              • 607

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by FishFace5
                                                              Public was on the dog last week guy. So just to recap you've had both the home team and the public opinion wrong. great posting. I feel better about my miami pick just because this stooge is on Pitt.
                                                              Mind you, N.C. State wasn't so much of a give away since they went from +2 to -2.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • kmarinouofm
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 8437

                                                                #101
                                                                pitt +4 is the play boys..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Rbyrne
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 02-10-10
                                                                  • 3054

                                                                  #102
                                                                  serbone is perfect fade material....have fun losing money on pitt
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • rockaflocka
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 08-07-10
                                                                    • 482

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by Patrick McIrish
                                                                    We don't need to hear from every square in the forum telling us they're playing road chalk tonight, last I looked over 2/3rds were on the Canes. We get it, you guys also bet Duke, Dallas and the Yankees on a regular basis as well. No idea why the Canes are getting so much respect, they could get blown out tonight. They could lose this game by double digits VERY EASILY, in fact that is exactly what I expect to happen.


                                                                    Pitt 27-10!!!! 'Nuff said.
                                                                    period lol
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • rockaflocka
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 08-07-10
                                                                      • 482

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Pitt will win this as a home dog.
                                                                      1. Pitt went into utah and was a few plays away from betting a very good utah team in their stadium
                                                                      2. Miami was a 2 returns and tressel play calling away from getting blown out at osu
                                                                      3. harris is a turnover machine
                                                                      4. lewis will grind it out on the ground, miami run defense not so great

                                                                      conclusion : both teams will have trouble moving the ball but harris is the wildcard. If he plays well I could see miami taking this one. That being said, I think under is the best play, GL tonight
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • msj0001
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-09-10
                                                                        • 1562

                                                                        #105
                                                                        People on Pitt BRANDON LANG is with you...Aka Youre FVCKED! Miami rolls
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...