Bowl Game Preview -System Picks

[Aunty808]

Starting to get some winnas Don’t mean to be a pest,but going be lol. 22)
12/20 James Mad at Oregon-20'..........(11/3)
12/23 Louisville-9' at Toledo...................(21/26)
12/26 Northwestern-12' at CMich.........(59/88)
12/26 FIU at UTSA+9'................................. .(107/95)
12/27 Clemson at Penn St-1'...................(47/36)
12/27 Geo Tech at BUY-2'.........................(78/23)
12/27 Fresno-3' at Mia Oh........................(39/62)
12/30 USC-6' at TCU...................................(4 2/49)
01/02 Navy at Cinn-1'................................(98/58)
01/02 SMU at Arizona-1'...........................(40/10)
is the numbers in parentheses the contest numbers? If not can you post it. Mucho Mahalos

blue, you are never a bother.....anytime you want anything, just post it and I'll get back to you.

No, it.s the Total Defense rank....lower number=higher ranked team. Ohio St is ranked at #1.
The National Champ is usually a team in the top 5 or 10.....I have to go and find the article. Last year, Ohio was ranked #1 and was the National Champ.

Here's the pick percentages from the contest
12/23 Louisville-9' at Toledo...................(21/26)
Louisville (68%/75%) OVER 54% / UNDER 81%
12/26 Northwestern-12' at CMich.........(59/88)
Northwestern (67%/88%) UNDER 52% / 67%
12/26 FIU at UTSA+9'................................. .(107/95)
FIU (55%) / UTSA (58%) OVER 63% / UNDER 55%
12/27 Clemson at Penn St-1'...................(47/36)
Penn St (51%/ 50%) UNDER 52% /OVER 58%
12/27 Geo Tech at BYU-2'.........................(78/23)
BYU (63% / 67%) OVER 56% / 80%)
12/27 Fresno-3' at Mia Oh........................(39/62)
Fresno (62%/ 75%) OVER 62%/ 88%
12/30 USC-6' at TCU...................................(4 2/49)
USC (50% / 50%) OVER 64%/(100% Only 5 players, need 10 to FADE)
01/02 Navy at Cinn-1'................................(98/58)
Cinn (54% / Navy 63%) OVER 53% / 71%
01/02 SMU at Arizona-1'...........................(40/10)
Arizona (58% /( 100% only 7 players, need 10 to FADE) OVER 69% / 60%)

I'll try and update the morning of the games to see how the percentages change.
Good luck!

[Bluewater]

You no ka oi sista

[Aunty808]

You no ka oi sista

[Aunty808]

braddah, here's the updated numbers for the games today. I'll check again around 830am, before I leave for the day, and update if needed.

Also, to get a better understanding, I'm noting what the rank means.
I can't find the article, but the reason I chose the Total Defense as the most important stat in this System, can be better understood if I listed the past three NC Games. I think alot of people put a lot of weight in the AP Poll rankings of the team when the games are played. In this System, it completely ignores the AP Poll ranking.

The numbers in front of the team (xx/xx) represents the (AP Rank/Total Defense Rank). Here's the last three NC Games.
2024
(8/1- 2.33) Ohio St-8 vs (7/5-2.82) ND FINAL Ohio St 34-23 OVER 46

2023
(1/4-2.98) Michigan-5 vs (13/28-3.76) Washington FINAL Michigan 34-13 UNDER 55'

2022
(1/6-3.09) Georgia-14 vs (7/39-3.96) TCU FINAL Geogia 65-7 OVER 61'
=============
I'll try and list the rest of the games with their Total Defense rank and stat when I do the contest percentages.

(The number in front of team is their rank in Total Defense)
(Total Defense - Opponent Total Yards Per Play)
(For reference Ohio St #1 at 2.18 / AF#136 at 5.99)

(26-3.30) Toledo 43' OVER 56% / UNDER 78%
(20-3.17) Louisville-9' (67%/77%)

(115-4.88)W Kentucky-1' (65% / 73%)
(84-4.48) So Miss 58' UNDER 51% /61%

(131-5.43) UNLV-6' (66%/57%)
(128-5.18) So Miss 66' UNDER 56%/60%

(71-4.12) California 56 OVER 56% / UNDER 56%
(95-4.54) Hawaii-1' (62%/64%)

Hope this post helps everyone pick winners!!

[Bluewater]

Mahalo much

[Aunty808]

Mahalo much

Louis up to 79% and the UNDER is at 80%

good luck!

[Bluewater]

Louisville line moved to 12.5 and percentage flipped not looking good for them. Also the Western Kentucky line flipped to now they +2.5

[Aunty808]

braddah, as of 130pm Hawaii time
Calif at Hawaii-1'
Hawaii (64%/64%) OVER 57% / UNDER 61%

good luck!

[Bluewater]

Mahalo on Hawaii but took un doubting the un now Go Worriors

[Aunty808]

braddah , here's the numbers
CMich at Northwestrn -10 / UNDER43' 60%
NMex at Minn-1' NMex 68% / OVER43' 64%
FIU at UTSA-5' FIU 54% / OVER60 57%

Sat
Pitt -10' at ECar Pitt 63% / O/U53' 50%
Penn St at Clem-3 50% / O/U48' 50%
UConn at Army-7 50% / UNDER43' 59%
GTech at BYU-4 BYU 58% / OVER56' 75%
Mia Oh at Fresno-5' Fresno 79% OVER41' 86% (12-2)
NTexas=5' at SDST NTexas 61% / OVER53' 63%
Virg at Mizzo-4' Virg 63% / O/U44' 50%
LSU at Hou-2' Hou 60% / OVER41' 64%

Will update as needed....

good luck!

[Bluewater]

Hope you had a marvelous Xmas Mahalo for the numbers

[Aunty808]

Correction
12/26 FIU at UTSA+9'................................. .(107/95)

UTSA opened as a -8' FAV, not a +9' DOG.
Official contest line closed at UTSA -8'.

[Aunty808]

braddah, here's the latest numbers for today's game.
I read somewhere that the team that is ranked higher in Rushing Yards Per Attempt has a better chance in winning the ballgame. I added that stat, along with the TOTAL DEF rank/Total YPP. I'll start tracking them here to see if it makes a difference or not.

With all the coaching changes and the transfer portal going on, I suppose a little research wouldn't hurt. I think, IMHO, that is an important factor in the bowl games this year..........but what do I know.....LOL

Since the Pitt/ECar game starts at 6am, I'll do that game here and then the rest in the next post.

Pitt-13' 63% O/U 50%

Team /Total DEF rank/YPP / Rushing Def/rank RYPA
Pitt 16/3.04 6/1.18
ECar 66/4.05 43/2.33

EDIT : Correction
the team that is ranked higher in Rushing Yards Per Attempt

Supposed to be the team that is ranking higher in total Rushing Yards Allowed per game.

I will stick with Rushing Defense Rushing Yards Per Attempt.

[Aunty808]

Sat Games Dec 27

Team /Total DEF rank/YPP / Rushing Def/rank RYPA
Clemson-2' 50% OVER 52%
Penn St 36/3.59 56/2.55
Clemson 48/3.72 40/2.28

Army-7' 53% UNDER 60%
UConn 109/4.78 124/3.85
Army 75/4.17 74/2.97

BYU-3' 54% OVER 71%
Geo Tech 78/4.34 96/3.28
BYU 24'3.27 27/2.02

Fresno St-5' 77% OVER 77%
Mia Oh 63/4.02 62/2.67
Fresno 39/3.63 93/2.96

NTexas-6' 67% OVER 64%
NTexas 76/4.22 107/3.50
SDST 26/3.29 51/2.39

Virginia 63% UNDER 57%
Virginia 30/3.41 22/1.90
Missouri 9/2.81 12/1.61

Houston-1' 60% OVER 59%
LSU 15/ 3.00 21/1.87
Hou 50/3.83 46/2.36
============

good luck to all!!

[Bluewater]

Just like clockwork Mahalo

[Aunty808]

Just like clockwork Mahalo

hey, I just found this article that kinda gives you an idea of who's in and who's out, coaching changes, injuries, etc.....

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2025-college-football-bowl-news-updates-opt-outs-transfer-portal-coaching-changes-injuries-tracker

Hope you had a very Merry Christmas!
laters......

[Bluewater]

Many Mahalos Sista and you have one marvelous New Year Okole Maluna

[Aunty808]

Many Mahalos Sista and you have one marvelous New Year Okole Maluna

Ditto to you and be safe!

[Aunty808]

braddah, here's the numbers for the games thru Wednesday. I won't add the Rushing Yards stat. I think if you just went with the higher ranked Total Def team, you would've had alot of winners. I think in the last group, Pitt, LSU and Mizzo lost and Penn St, BYU, Fresno, Army and SDST won.

Monday
App St+8' 63% / OVER 59%
Geo So............130/5.37
App St ............99/4.67

CoCar/La Tech 50% / OVER 67%
CoCar.........120/4.98
La Tech.......98/4.66

Tenn-2' 75% / O/U 50%
Tenn........55/3.88
Illinois......33/3.46
With 75% on Tenn, Illinois higher ranked....maybe Illinois ML?

TCU+6' 64% / OVER 67%
USC........41/3.66
TCU........49/3.77

Vandy-4' 64% / OVER 70%
Iowa...........7/2.78
Vandy........52/3.84
Looks like the wrong team is favored here. Iowa ranked way higher than Vandy...Iowa ML.

Ariz St+3 67% / UNDER 56%
Ariz St............25/3.27
Duke..............88/4.49
Again, Ariz St higher ranked than Duke.....Ariz St ML

Texas-7' 88% / OVER 62%
Mich...............12/2.98
Texas.............14/3.00
Texas an 88%=FADE

Nebraska+14 88% / OVER 63%
Nebraskd............38/3.62
Utah......................44/3.68
Nebraska 88%=FADE

Ohio St-9' 62% / UNDER 58
Mia Fla.............2/2.47
Ohio St ............1/2.18
All stats are adjusted fpr strength of opponent.
#1 vs #2 in Total Def.
Total points allowed per game
Ohio St -12.08
Mia Fla -8.19

Opponent Rushing Yards per attempt
Ohio St (8) 1.23
Mia Fla (3) 0.98

Opponent Passing Yards per attempt
Ohio St (1) 3.05
Mia Fla (8) 3.75
If this game goes OVER the total, let's call for a full investigation...lol
=============
Heads up on these two games.

Georgia-6' 100% (doesn't qualify as a FADE yet, with only a 9-0)need 10 O/U 50%
Miss ......46/3.70
Geo........13/2.99

Arizona-3 91% / OVER 60%
Arizona.........10/2.88
SMU...............40/3.65

good luck!!

[Bluewater]

[Aunty808]

UpdatingTotal Def Ranking and Contest pick percentages.

Vandy-4 59% / OVER 63%
Iowa...................8/2.78
Vandy...............50/3.83

Duke-3 55% / UNDER 65%
Ariz St..................24/3.27
Duke....................90/4.52

Texas-7 70% / OVER 62%
Michigan...........12/2.98
Texas..................13/3.00

Nebraska+14' 80% (20/5) / OVER 70%
Nebraska.................39/3.62
Utah...........................44/3.68
Nebraska+14' ...with 80% on DOG=FADE

Mia Fla/Ohio St-9' 50% / UNDER 64%
Mia Fla................4/2.49
Ohio St................1/2.19

Next up Thursday and Friday games....

[Aunty808]

Thursday Jan 1, 2026 Happy New Year!!

Texas Tech+2' 82% (14/3) / OVER 60%
Oregon..............6/2.70
T Tech................2/2.36
Texas Tech is a DOG with an 82% = FADE
I dunno......I picked Texas Tech in my contest because of the higher ranking.....

Alabama/Indiana-7 50% / UNDER 75%
Alabama.................16/3.04
Indiana....................11/2.91

Georgia-6' 84% (16/3) / UNDER 53%
Miss...............46/3.69
Georgia........14/3.00
Georgia with an 84%= FADE

Friday Jan 2
Rice+14' 54% / O/U 57' 50%
Rice...............111/4.81
Tex St...........103/4.73

Navy-7 56% / OVER 56%
Navy.............95/4.64
Cinn..............60/3.95

Arizona-3 83% (10/2) / OVER 55%
Arizona......10/2.87
SMU............42/3.67

WForest/Miss St-3 50% / OVER 67%
Wake Forest......9/2.80
Miss St .............67/4.09

good luck!!

[Bluewater]

Mahalos hoping to go out with some wins. Cheers

[Aunty808]

Mahalos hoping to go out with some wins. Cheers

There goes my contest.....I had Ohio St going all the way.....oh well, on to basketball! I'm trying to get a good read on the games cause there's so many games to pick from each day. I'm gonna try and see if I can get to the $100K Survivor contest with basketball.

On the other hand, I almost went with Iowa today but I really thought Vandy had a nice storyline to win the game, but nope, they lost.
I was surprised that Duke won.....I just got home from work and am just now getting caught up with the scores.

Time for earplugs! Each year people go nuts with their fireworks......this year is kinda quiet. I think because of last years tragedy, the cops of going all out enforcing the fireworks laws so there's no repeat of last year.
Take care and be safe!!
Talk to you next year.....lol....

[Bluewater]

Miamis defense was too fast unreal. I mean 5 sacks

[Aunty808]

Miamis defense was too fast unreal. I mean 5 sacks

I watched the Miss/Geo game.....what a finish huh? Hope you faded Georgia! Can you believe Tex Tech couldn't even score a point? WOW! Three total points between them and Alabama! Defense really wins championship huh?

Gonna post the updated numbers for tomorrow's game. good luck!!

[Aunty808]

Friday Jan 02

Rice/Texas St-16' 50% / OVER (56') 53%
Rice.........111/4.81
Tex St......103/4.73

Navy-7' at Cinn 50% / UNDER (55') 58%
Navy........96/4.64
Cinn ........61/3.95

Arizona-1' 76% / OVER (51') 53%
Arizona..........10/2.87
SMU.................44/3.67

W Forest+3' 55% / OVER (53')65%
W Forest.................9/2.80
Miss St....................69/4.09


good luck!

[Bluewater]

Crazy game and TT wow totally overrated

[Aunty808]

Games not listed at covers
Odds from BetMGM

Indy-4...........11/2.84
Oreg 47'..............6/2.59

All stats are adjusted fpr strength of opponent.
#11vs #6 in Total Def.
Total points allowed per game
Indy.....-9.19
Oreg....-5.32

Opponent Rushing Yards per attempt
Indy (7) 2.8
Oreg (16) 3.3

Opponent Passing Yards per attempt
Indy 6.11
Oreg 5.52
Indiana fall into the 4-0 group (Play On)
Hard to call this game......Indiana all the way? Should be a good game.

Miss 51'................42/3.66
Mia Fla-3.......4/2.52
#42vs #4 in Total Def.
Total points allowed per game
Miss...........3.02
Mia Fla....-8.66

Opponent Rushing Yards per attempt
Miss (68) 4.2
Mia Fla (5) 2.8

Opponent Passing Yards per attempt
MIss.......6.44
Mia Fla.....6.10
Mia Fla fall into the 3-1 group (Play On)
My guess is Ole Miss's cinderella run comes to an abrupt halt. Miami will shut them down. That defense is nasty.

I'll add the percentages when the games get listed.

Looks like a Indiana/Mia Fla Championship game, but what do I know....it's football.

good luck!

[Aunty808]

Thursday Jan 8
(XX) covers contest percentages
covers has not posted an O/U yet

Oreg .............6/2.59 Oreg+4 (57% 4/3)
Indy-4................9/2.85

All stats are adjusted fpr strength of opponent.
#5 vs #2 in Total Def.
Total points allowed per game
Oreg....-5.28
Indy.....-9.18

Miss ................42/3.66 Miss+3 (100% 6/0)
Mia Fla-3.......4/2.52

#40 vs #3 in Total Def.
Total points allowed per game
Miss...........3.04
Mia Fla....-8.66

[Bluewater]

Mahalos sista pulling for Indy but very hard to beat a good team twice. So Ole Miss has 100% of contestants on them and it’s 6-0 can’t believe Mia doesn’t shut them down like they did to OSU.

[Aunty808]

Mahalos sista pulling for Indy but very hard to beat a good team twice. So Ole Miss has 100% of contestants on them and it’s 6-0 can’t believe Mia doesn’t shut them down like they did to OSU.

Yeah, me too. That Miami D is something nasty.

[Aunty808]

Latest numbers for today's game...

Oregon 48' O/U (50%)
Indiana-3 (55%)

All stats are adjusted for strength of opponent.
Total Defense
Opponent Total Yards Per Play
#6 Oreg....-2.59
#9 Indy.....-2.85


Total points allowed per game
Opponent Points Per Game
#5 Oregon -5.28
#2 Indiana -9.18

good luck!

[Bluewater]

Lets go Indy

[Aunty808]

Lets go Indy

I took the UNDER 48' cause they didn't list the sides in the survivor contest.

Good luck to us!