Fred The Hammers CFB Thread including Early Birds

[Fred The Hammer]

I thought I'd come back this year after being gone a while. CFB has always been my fav sport to cap, especially the bowl season!

2 Early Bird Specials so far! I'll def have a few for the August 23 start as well

Old Dominion/Indiana Over 54.5 (-105) FD. I got 53.5 for $330 (max bet for me early).

Indiana and Curt Cignetti love to run up the score and this QB Fernando Mendoza brings a new wrinkle to their offense w/mobility. They can run boots, etc. One scout has him as the #1 QB coming out in the NFL draft next year. Idk about that, but he's talented. The Oline should be good....got 1 Notre Dame starter to transfer in. I also really like Roman Hemby, RB from Maryland. He's scored 25 TDs for the Terps in 3 years and has deep speed and good hands. Maryland is not a good run blocking program so he could really explode in Indiana's system. I really don't know OD, but I'm looking for IU to carry the load for the Over. I pounded IU Over alot last year and got rewarded. Cignetti loves to run that shit up! Faked a punt up 38-0 on Purdue and beat them 66-0 last year.

Indiana 45-17

GL this year and can't wait!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You're right about Cignetti. He's obsessed. He's not there to make friends.

Props on the post. And GL.

[Fred The Hammer]

You're right about Cignetti. He's obsessed. He's not there to make friends.

Props on the post. And GL.

Thanks and GL to you this football season. I found this just now



Could IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza be the next Hoosier to go No. 1?

ESPN is telling you there’s a chance.

That outlet’s Jordan Reid placed 14 players in three categories as it relates to becoming the No. 1 pick — serious contenders, potential risers and longshots. He places Mendoza in the same category as the player who ended up No. 1 overall in April, Miami’s Cam Ward.

Here’s what Reid says about Mendoza’s chance to go No. 1 at the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh next April:

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%

[SBR Andy]

I thought I'd come back this year after being gone a while. CFB has always been my fav sport to cap, especially the bowl season!

2 Early Bird Specials so far! I'll def have a few for the August 23 start as well

Old Dominion/Indiana Over 54.5 (-105) FD. I got 53.5 for $330 (max bet for me early).

Indiana and Curt Cignetti love to run up the score and this QB Fernando Mendoza brings a new wrinkle to their offense w/mobility. They can run boots, etc. One scout has him as the #1 QB coming out in the NFL draft next year. Idk about that, but he's talented. The Oline should be good....got 1 Notre Dame starter to transfer in. I also really like Roman Hemby, RB from Maryland. He's scored 25 TDs for the Terps in 3 years and has deep speed and good hands. Maryland is not a good run blocking program so he could really explode in Indiana's system. I really don't know OD, but I'm looking for IU to carry the load for the Over. I pounded IU Over alot last year and got rewarded. Cignetti loves to run that shit up! Faked a punt up 38-0 on Purdue and beat them 66-0 last year.

Indiana 45-17

GL this year and can't wait!

Thanks for sharing. Cheers to a profitable season!

[Fred The Hammer]

Thanks for sharing. Cheers to a profitable season!

You're welcome and GL to you as well

[Fred The Hammer]

I spent about 45 minutes looking at some Aug 23 games, but didn't see anything to get excited about

I like this one though on Thursday Aug 28

East Carolina +12.5 @ NC State DK

EC QB Katin Houser is back and he has a little swag in him....dual threat. EC NC State is a rivalry game and EC beat them in a bowl last year so NC State will be ready, but I don't like their program that much. EC has their top WR back as well and a bunch of transfers from bigger schools that should be hungry.

NC State 30-26

[ProSportsEdge]

I spent about 45 minutes looking at some Aug 23 games, but didn't see anything to get excited about

I like this one though on Thursday Aug 28

East Carolina +12.5 @ NC State DK

EC QB Katin Houser is back and he has a little swag in him....dual threat. EC NC State is a rivalry game and EC beat them in a bowl last year so NC State will be ready, but I don't like their program that much. EC has their top WR back as well and a bunch of transfers from bigger schools that should be hungry.

NC State 30-26

Solid breakdown… Houser’s a gamer, and getting 12.5 in a rivalry spot feels like value. NC State might pull it out, but East Carolina should hang tough, especially with all that returning talent. Good eye on that one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to you guys. Early Coll FB is a great betting ground for the guy who has done his homework. Lines often move significantly from Open to Close.

[Fred The Hammer]

Florida Atlantic +14.5 (-115) at Maryland FD


FAU brought in a young coach from W KY who brought with him QB Caden Veltkamp. Conf USA player of the year w/25 TD passes. Maryland lost almost all their offensive production on the other side. Pretty big play for me and I'll probably have something on FAU ML. Its going to be a tough season for the Terps and never thought they were well coached. Tua's little bro carried them for years

[Fred The Hammer]

Started 1-1, KState and Hawaii. Much bigger bet on Hawaii (-2.5), which was dicey, but they got it done.

I like this one tonight. Did my homework I think

Brendan Sorsby Cincinnati Over 215.5 passing DK (-115)

I know Sorsby because he played alot as a true freshman at Indiana. He threw for 2800 yds last year (234 per game). Their WRs are a little unproven, but Nebraska is breaking in new DBs as well. He does have an experienced TE in Joe Royer (50 catches last year).
I see a little bit of a shootout and hopefully Neb is ahead which keeps UC throwing.

[Fred The Hammer]

Solid breakdown… Houser’s a gamer, and getting 12.5 in a rivalry spot feels like value. NC State might pull it out, but East Carolina should hang tough, especially with all that returning talent. Good eye on that one.

Cashed out and took EC +14. Can't pass that up

[SBR Andy]

Started 1-1, KState and Hawaii. Much bigger bet on Hawaii (-2.5), which was dicey, but they got it done.

I like this one tonight. Did my homework I think

Brendan Sorsby Cincinnati Over 215.5 passing DK (-115)

I know Sorsby because he played alot as a true freshman at Indiana. He threw for 2800 yds last year (234 per game). Their WRs are a little unproven, but Nebraska is breaking in new DBs as well. He does have an experienced TE in Joe Royer (50 catches last year).
I see a little bit of a shootout and hopefully Neb is ahead which keeps UC throwing.

I like it. If you have access to bet365, Sorsby is 209.5 there - https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet....BrendanSorsby

[Fred The Hammer]

Well Officially 1-1

Nice hit on East Carolina +14, but Sorsby had no time and his WRs need to get sorted out. Should've went w/his rushing or the EC QB. He's one to watch moving forward

[Fred The Hammer]

Love this one tonight!

GT -3.5 (-112) DK 1 Unit
GT Over 27.5 (-120) DK 2 units
Haynes King Over 43.5 rushing (-115) DK 1 unit

Coach Prime only returns 3 guys on each side of the ball and his health isn't good. Its not going to be pretty for the Buffs this year

[Fred The Hammer]

Sam Houston State Over 25.5 (-115) Fanatics 1 unit

UNLV got torched for 555 yds last week. SHS will most likely keep pace tonight for a while and crack this number. I think I like this better then taking the pts or Over 61.5

[Fred The Hammer]

U G L Y I ain't got no alibi

Hoover Over 280.5 (-115) Fanatics

Went to the Indiana game and got sunburn somehow in 75 degree weather. I'm not pasty by any means, but just don't sit in the sun anymore

Anyway IU on 3 possessions were down to the 1-2 yard line and ended up with 6 points. They also dropped a bomb in the end zone and took a short loss right before half and then hit the crossbar on a 50+ fg. One of those days. With OD getting a flukey TD on the first play it should've went over easily

[Fred The Hammer]

U G L Y I ain't got no alibi

Hoover Over 280.5 (-115) Fanatics

Went to the Indiana game and got sunburn somehow in 75 degree weather. I'm not pasty by any means, but just don't sit in the sun anymore

Anyway IU on 3 possessions were down to the 1-2 yard line and ended up with 6 points. They also dropped a bomb in the end zone and took a short loss right before half and then hit the crossbar on a 50+ fg. One of those days. With OD getting a flukey TD on the first play it should've went over easily

Thank God....almost blew them out so bad he didn't get it. 2 TDs on D and a 75 yd run. If I didn't shop the lines I would've taken a bad beat. Most had 285 or 289 even. Fanatics (used to be Points Bet) is pretty solid. They might be my new favorite over Bet MGM

[SBR Andy]

A couple close losses, solid calls overall. Good luck in week 2!

[Fred The Hammer]

A couple close losses, solid calls overall. Good luck in week 2!

Ty sir. Not a great start, but its a long season

[Fred The Hammer]

Louisville Over 34.5 team total (-125) FD
2 units $160 to win $128


This is probably Jeff Brohm's best team at Lville. He's an excellent offensive coach and Purdue is the worst team in the B10 since he left. James Madison is well coached and has a good system, but the Cards are too much. JM's QB Barnett is only about 5'11 or 6' and they'll pressure him tonight. Louisville is #18 on the Sagarin ratings while JM is 66. I decided on the team total vs the Over

Louisville 41-21

[Fred The Hammer]

Cashed out lost $78. Whats up with the offense in these games? I wonder if all these guys in the portal really throws off chemistry. JM was running the 46 Bear front on Louisville and just smothering them.

I'm laying off more action until it makes more sense. I already have Illinois -2.5 and Jonathon Taylor Over 76.5 rushing on Sunday.

[Fred The Hammer]

Cashed out lost $78. Whats up with the offense in these games? I wonder if all these guys in the portal really throws off chemistry. JM was running the 46 Bear front on Louisville and just smothering them.

I'm laying off more action until it makes more sense. I already have Illinois -2.5 and Jonathon Taylor Over 76.5 rushing on Sunday.

Really nice day today. Illinois rolled and I had Holstein for Pitt 250+ passing. He had 190 at half I think. I played him quite a bit last year.
Also won a little on Kansas Missouri Over 49.5. I had to take my friend home from the sportsbook, but I liked UNLV quite a bit. Didn't bet it since I couldn't watch it.

Overs seemed back in business today which is good for me! I also tailed somebody on a prop for WR Cameron for Baylor. Over 56.5 and he beat it in the 2Q. Props are easier then sides/totals imo....as long as you do your homework

[SBR Andy]

Great job. Let us know what you're liking for Week 3!

[Fred The Hammer]

Great job. Let us know what you're liking for Week 3!

Ty. Should've went 2-0 yesterday, but shit happens. Lost Taylor Over 76.5 because they blew out Miami so bad that they took him out.
Did hit Cam Ward Under 195 atleast. Denver D is no joke. Denver @ Indy this weekend

[ProSportsEdge]

Really nice day today. Illinois rolled and I had Holstein for Pitt 250+ passing. He had 190 at half I think. I played him quite a bit last year.
Also won a little on Kansas Missouri Over 49.5. I had to take my friend home from the sportsbook, but I liked UNLV quite a bit. Didn't bet it since I couldn't watch it.

Overs seemed back in business today which is good for me! I also tailed somebody on a prop for WR Cameron for Baylor. Over 56.5 and he beat it in the 2Q. Props are easier then sides/totals imo....as long as you do your homework

Nice work, sounds like you had a solid card. Hitting those props early always feels good, especially when they cash by halftime. Totally agree—props can be smoother than sides/totals if you dig into the matchups.

[Fred The Hammer]

Nice work, sounds like you had a solid card. Hitting those props early always feels good, especially when they cash by halftime. Totally agree—props can be smoother than sides/totals if you dig into the matchups.

Yeah when I tail someone I still do my homework. Trust but verify!

Parlay Houston Cougars (-2.5) & Reds (+102) +219 Fan Duel

Love this one although I buy points and they rarely if ever help. Bad habit! Colorado D is terrible and they're unsure at QB. Reds won 5 Singer starts in a row. He's really a competitor and I never saw that when he was with KC. Reds are only 1.5 back of the Mets who are crashing

[Fred The Hammer]

F Reds. I should've known better, but I did have a little on Houston w/boosts etc.

Big one today for me:

Jayden Maiava USC Over 275+ passing (-118) FD

He threw for 295 and 412 in 2 blowouts and this one projects to be a little more competitive. Purdue will put up a fight, but USC will eventually expose them and Maiva should get 290+ before its all said and done. Something like 43-24 USC

3-4 other plays I'm working on

[Fred The Hammer]

Maalik Murphy Oregon State 222+ passing (-115) MGM

So far he has 244 and 371 in 2 losing games and they're +23 again today in Lubbock. Trash yards get it done. He threw for 2900 and 26 TDs for Duke last year so he's got experience. Small parlay w/Over 61.5 in that game too

[Fred The Hammer]

Eli Holstein Pitt 271+ passing Pitt (-115) Fanatics

Small play. I've been riding him, but kind of a high number. Idk much about WV yet

[Fred The Hammer]

Cashed Holstein. Going to cash big bet on USC guy unless he gets hurt. Nice day, but the weather delays sucked

Goes off in 10 minutes:

East Carolina -7 (-115) Fanatics

Coastal Carolina is dogshit now. Lost all their magic

[Fred The Hammer]

UAB -11.5 (-110) Fanatics

Just ran across this stat. Teams coming off back 2 back shutouts are 7-16 ATS the next week. Akron isn't good in other words and UAB can atleast score

[Fred The Hammer]

F Reds. I should've known better, but I did have a little on Houston w/boosts etc.

Big one today for me:

Jayden Maiava USC Over 275+ passing (-118) FD

He threw for 295 and 412 in 2 blowouts and this one projects to be a little more competitive. Purdue will put up a fight, but USC will eventually expose them and Maiva should get 290+ before its all said and done. Something like 43-24 USC

3-4 other plays I'm working on

Winner Winner!!! Easy too. He had 180 at half I think. Might be perfect today if these last 2 small ones hit

[Fred The Hammer]

Cashed Holstein. Going to cash big bet on USC guy unless he gets hurt. Nice day, but the weather delays sucked

Goes off in 10 minutes:

[B]East Carolina -7 (-115) Fanatics[/B]

Coastal Carolina is dogshit now. Lost all their magic

38-0. Wow. CC def fade material

[Fred The Hammer]

Up over $600 today! With $88 pending UAB -11.5. Would've capped more of them, but the weather delay Texas Tech game and Purdue/USC threw me off. I bet off my bankroll and I don't know what it is with games being delayed

[Fred The Hammer]

Hit Josh Allen 2 TDs easy, but lost MLB. I'm done with baseball, its football season

Iowa ML (-125 ML) MGM

Rutgers has never beaten Iowa and they're allowing 5.6 per rush. Thats not going to work tonight. Rutgers is throwing it now and I think Iowa will be more physical. Iowa 26-19

Purdue @ Notre Dame Over 50.5 (-115) MGM

This is NDs get right game and they'll pour it on late. Also the Purdue QB isn't that bad either and ND def has some holes. Fav bet so far this week

Notre Dame 44-24