Wal's College Football Week #12

HoldEmHook!! · 11-19-09, 11:55 PM

Wal...I am not doubting you or questioning you just trying to learn....why are you playing nebraska. Your proram has them at -11 and the official line now is -17. does that not give value to Kansas st.

tblues2005 · 11-20-09, 02:20 AM

wal I like some of your picks this week. The Rutgers play looks real good to me as possibly my lock of the week.

madworld · 11-20-09, 02:46 AM

I also like Rutgers and Iowa St. this week. Good Luck Wal

Cougar Bait · 11-20-09, 06:35 AM

Nice start to the week Wal...

wal66 · 11-20-09, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Wal...I am not doubting you or questioning you just trying to learn....why are you playing nebraska. Your proram has them at -11 and the official line now is -17. does that not give value to Kansas st.

Houl's if any play outside of maybe Colorado deserves questioning Nebraska is it. The only way I can explain this selection is to ask you have you ever played Holdem? Ever been sitting there playing A-B-C poker and all of a sudden get a wild hair and for some unknown reason you just have to play that K-5 off-suit? Pretty much sums up the Nebraska play here. Now granted they have a kick ass defense so keeping Kansas St scoring down isn't a stretch. My problem is the obvious number of pints Nebraska has to cover here. No good explaination. I'm just playing a vibe I got while looking at all the data. Data by the way that didn't support the play either.

bigcat1 · 11-20-09, 07:36 AM

LEGENDARY PICK, LEGANDARY

bigcat1 · 11-20-09, 08:04 AM

WELL YOU KNOW HOW THE PUBLIC IS, WHAT YOUR PLAYS FOR TONIGHT AND DON'T SAY you are aren't gambling tonight...your on a roll, so i am at work waiting patiently....all seriousness good call, you deserve it and you do your homework

wal66 · 11-20-09, 09:17 AM

Cat's, hardly legendary. In fact very fortunate. I did my analysis, I had my hunch and I had posted my play before I even knew about Robinson being out. That's right I did my homework so well I forgot to check the injury report. Dumb fortunate lucky hunch that paid off even though it was CRAP-capping at it's finest.

As for tonight goes, I've been busy with my plays and this other thing that is in the works plus work that I haven't even looked at tonights game. I know off the top of my head I like Bowling Green to roll but I have nothing to support that yet and I really think Boise State has to put forth a dominate performance here even though in the end it really won't matter. Like I said though I haven't crunched any numbers on any of tonights games. Working half a day today and as long as it's not raining will be playing golf at 2 o'clock. I'll be home sometime around 6 PM and if there isn't anything going on I'll have to look them over. I'll start with Bowling Green to see if what I'm thinking is supported with some data.

bigcat1 · 11-20-09, 09:43 AM

What do you mean work half a day and golf, my goodness, some people got it made.

wal66 · 11-20-09, 10:26 AM

City employee Cat's, what can I say I live up to the stereotype.

og4667 · 11-20-09, 11:17 AM

way to go with you gut on colorado last night. I too went with my gut on Colorado. Congrats.

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 11:19 AM

Wal, how confident are you on Penn State, as I really feel they are the better team and should be able to win by more than 3 and saw you are betting them, just curious is all and I did read your writeup on the game. Because I am about 75% sure they should cover. Thanks for your other picks as well.

wal66 · 11-20-09, 11:33 AM

southpark, I was concerned about Colorado lastnight and I am very comcerned about Nebraska tomorrow. Those two games are the only ones I am currently own that bother me at all. Now simply because I am very confident in Penn St and my other plays that isn't to say there is a few things that could happen to make this or any of the plays go very very wrong. Michigan St is at home and they are capable of putting some points on the scoreboard. Add to that that Penn St probably won't improve much on where they end up at the end of the season so what motivation might they have beyond increasing Joe Pa's win total? Penn St's defensive numbers are solid both for the season and against common opponents compared to Michigan St but they did play a weaker schedule.

While Michigan St could easily win this game outright if Penn St doesn't put in the effort it all basically came down to either pass or play the favorite here and I chose to play.

wal66 · 11-20-09, 01:27 PM

I wasn’t gonna have plays for tonight but since I was asked about them I went ahead and did the work for 2 of the games. The Boise St game is just a line I would rather not mess with. For me with that line Boise should cover it because aside from having a weaker opponent they know they need to win big and that still probably won’t help them in the polls. Add to that the fact that Utah St while not on par with Boise still has some fight in them and the end result could be anything even though I personally think Boise will roll.

Toledo: Numbers, numbers, numbers, so many numbers to crunch. Basically Toledo is safe for a win here but the line is the real problem. Some of the numbers I am looking at suggest Toledo will cover this line easily while others say the line is spot on. There has been some lost value in the line with it moving from -17 to -16 and lower at some books.
My program says Toledo -16.5 so I am leaning on Toledo up to -17 but not enough to make it an official play.

Bowling Green: Man I love the MAC. Where else would you normally play teams with non-winning records. Everything I have looked at says Bowling Green cruises tonight. While I never and I mean NEVER go into any game thinking it will be easy I do like this game a lot. Bowling Green averaged 10 ppg more on offense than did Akron against common opponents this season. As I have said over and over common opponents is something I rely heavily on. Bowling Green averaged 7 ppg more on offense than did Akron on the overall season thus far. Notice neither of these averages is equal too or greater than the line set for tonight’s game, normally that would concern me in a major way. These numbers alone would make me play Akron or most likely pass but the program likes Bowling Green quite a bit here so I’ll take a leap of faith and ride with it.

Play: (even though I really like this game it’s still a ½ unit play)

Bowling Green -10 (bought the hook cause it’s the safe thing to do)

LINE-crush-ER · 11-20-09, 01:41 PM

opinion
Akron played well over the last couple of weeks
getting to that one win
they didnt play very well last week and they have more concenttation toward next year now that they have the win
many see the value with akron
i see they have played out of their means for the one win that took a tolle on em trying to get
they are beat to hell and back
BG
is a much stronger play than you give em credit for

taurus · 11-20-09, 06:16 PM

first time visitor to your thread. I like. Very informative.
I really like what you did last night, taking Colorado because you thought it was the right side even tho your computer told you otherwise. ( I was on Okie lite, not bothering to check injuries, so i lost and deservadly so). I also lost on the Tennessee St- Eastern Illinois game ( the FCS is my bread and butter) because I went against a strong gut feel and my own numbers when I let someone else's numbers sway me. Tsk Tsk.
Now we come to K State-Nebraska, where you have switched positions again. I wish the opposite were the case because I like K State to cover ( not to win) based on Nebraska's perceived anemic offense.
FWIW, I like your other calls a lot.
GL

wal66 · 11-20-09, 06:39 PM

taurus, hunches have their time and place. I had one with Colorado and was fortunate. there is a lot of reason to either stay away from the K-State/Nebraska game or take the points that are available. I am on the Nebraska side but so many indicators tell me I am wrong. Follow what you trust in this or any other game. Just because someone (like me lastnight) gets lucky on a hunch from time to time doesn't mean it will continue or what you feel is wrong.

angelodebo · 11-20-09, 06:53 PM

I"m taking Toledo tonight for a small wager. Toledo ain't winning to many games this year..So they are at home, with a pretty good chance of winning. I expect them to finally have fun playing football. They are def. the better team.

I think Toledo wins by 20

wal66 · 11-20-09, 07:10 PM

Personally I like that selection.

I was considering teasing Toledo and Bowling Green

LINE-crush-ER · 11-20-09, 07:17 PM

well hell
Not sure how good the pick will end up being
really wanted the tease at -1/2
but doesnt matter missed out on it
I even made a mark to myself to remember it was an early game (oh well)

wal66 · 11-20-09, 07:25 PM

Crush, I am just glad you're back guy. Hope you kill it this weekend.

angelodebo · 11-20-09, 07:53 PM

I don't like teasing games. Never have..never will. Its hard enough hitting one game, never mind having to hit two to win. But good luck.

Toledo is up 9pts right now.

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 08:02 PM

Freddie Barnes is amazing. Wow I hope Bowling Green makes a bowl game, just so this kid can get exposed. My third favorite college wide receiver behind Dez Bryant and Dezmon Briscoe!

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 08:07 PM

not sure if anyone else was watching or just bet on the game, if not watch some highlights after this game, really incredible stuff.

wal66 · 11-20-09, 08:19 PM

I'm watching.

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 08:22 PM

Wal this is coming down to the wire!

wal66 · 11-20-09, 08:23 PM

I can see that backdoor cracked open already.

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 08:40 PM

Congrats on the win wal66!

wal66 · 11-20-09, 08:42 PM

We won? I quit watching, I just could feel the backdoor. Woo Hoo
lol

southpark79 · 11-20-09, 08:48 PM

yeah bowling green stopped them on 4th and 7 at the 7 and held on to win by 16!

wal66 · 11-20-09, 08:51 PM

Well I'm done for the night. I really thought about playing the late game but I think I'll stay ahead of the game for now. May look into the second half of Boise to see what it looks like. Good for us Southie.

killakam · 11-20-09, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Well I'm done for the night. I really thought about playing the late game but I think I'll stay ahead of the game for now. May look into the second half of Boise to see what it looks like. Good for us Southie.

that's what i normally do when i feel i've been pushing the envelope a little too much - watch the first half to get a good feel for the game, and then play the 2nd half line. you'r analysis on fire.

wal66 · 11-20-09, 08:58 PM

Thanks killa

wal66 · 11-20-09, 09:07 PM

Guys, be sure to checkout that SBR Round Table thread. Houlihan's Mac4lyfe. Cougarbaits and myself put a lot of effort into that. Make sure to let those guys know you appreciate their efforts.

wal66 · 11-21-09, 10:33 AM

I don’t know how many of you follow the MAC but if you like games with everything on the line then today we have just that scenario. We have a match up between 7-3 Northern Illinois at 7-3 Ohio U. Both teams sit in 2nd place in their respective divisions. Both have one game left after today and they both face the individual division leader next week. So whoever wins today is still alive for the conference title and the loser, well it is pretty much over and they’ll just have to wait and see if they grab a bowl game.

The lime on this game is at Ohio U -1 in most places and has bounced back and forth between 0-1 all week. Personally I think Ohio has a slight coaching advantage but I would tend to lean to Northern Illinois from an offensive standpoint. On defense Northern Illinois has a slight edge on the season as a whole but has played a slightly easier schedule. Ohio U has had a better defensive performance against common opponents this season though.

I ran the program on this game and it computed out to a 24-23 ball game with Northern Illinois coming out on top. So obviously I found no value here for a play but that really doesn’t bother me because I decided to stay away from this game anyhow. I just like the MAC and I like the it when games matter.

Even though I have no play on this game I thought since I did the work anyway and because this is such an important game I would bring it to your attention and give you the numbers I crunched on this game.

Northern Illinois played schedule strength of 58.3 while Ohio U has played schedule strength of 60.9. On the road this season Northern Illinois has averaged scoring 31 ppg and allowed just 17 ppg. At home this season Ohio U has averaged scoring 25 ppg and allowed an average of 13 ppg. Against common opponents this season Northern Illinois average score has been 27-17. Ohio U’s average scores in those same games has been 25-17. In the previous 6 meetings between these teams the average score has been 27-26 Ohio U. After all is said and done the program taking everything into account it likes Northern Illinois by 1.

As I said I am passing on this game but lean towards Northern Illinois.