Wal's College Football Week #12

BigdaddyQH · 11-15-09, 11:48 AM

Not a real big week for so late in the year. Basically, everything is wrapped up in most conferences. Ohio State wins the Big 10. Florida and Alabama meet in the SEC Championship Game. Ga.Tech is in the ACC Championship. Texas is in the Big 12 Championship. The Pac 10 race is still wide open. Who would believe that Stanford could end up in the Rose Bowl, but that is possible. Here are the games that will decide championships:

Virginia at Clemson. A win and Clemson get a re-match against Ga. Tech, in what should be a great ACC Championship game. Does anyone think that Virginia has a chance? I don't.

Cal at Stanford. Game one of two games that will be cirtical in deciding the Pac 10 championship today. Oregon still has the inside track with one conference loss, but a Stanford win forces the winner of the Oregon-Arizona game to win out.

Kansas State at Nebraska. The winner here wins the Big 12 North, I think. The Big 12 North is so crazy one can ever be sure. If it is Nebraska, Texas may get a test in the championship game if Pelini can find an offense.

Oregon at Arizona. Game two of the Pac 10 elimination series. One of these teams gets eliminated tonight. Both teams should know Stanford's fate by game time. Arizona really laid an egg at Cal. I can't see Oregon losing here.

wal66 · 11-15-09, 08:49 PM

Wow, my program has had some good lines compared to opening lines but this week they are better than usual. This will make it way more important for capping. Usually I get about 15 games with lines that differ by 3.5 or more this week that number is way down. I don't count lines over 21 even though sometimes those games are capped.

wal66 · 11-15-09, 08:49 PM

QH, you are spot on with how those games set up. It will be interesting.

TheBetBuysDanK · 11-16-09, 01:38 AM

caught some lines in your program i really like. One I love is Rutgers. I bet you'll love it too

titleist1604 · 11-16-09, 02:33 PM

I like those lines.. I learnt quite a few things with my model and the results last weekend. I'm going to tweak a few parameters and post a few predictions for this week.

bigcat1 · 11-16-09, 02:51 PM

wall,

to tell you the truth i will tail 3 or 4 picks for this week, cause my picks this week don't have a good feeling, not like last week with the uk game, so just look back and see me riding your coat tails, best of luck,

BIGPIMPN · 11-16-09, 05:18 PM

Wal is the man!!

WAL, Thank you very much for the lines. Out of the 54 games last week, i agreed with 25 of the lines and 19 of them hit!! Please continue to provide us with these line. LUV YA$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!!

wal66 · 11-16-09, 08:18 PM

Pimp.........you did far better with those lines than I did. LOL. Maybe I need to give you the lines and follow how you use them.

BIGPIMPN · 11-17-09, 05:21 PM

EASY !!! This week looks NICE!!$$$ Thanx for the lines.

wal66 · 11-17-09, 05:39 PM

Wednesday November 18, 2009
8:00 PM
Central Michigan @ Ball St

Records:
Central Michigan 8-2 (7-2 ATS) 4-2 on the road
Ball St 1-9 (5-5 ATS) 0-5 at home

Trends:
Ball St is 19-7 ATS against a team with a winning record

Head to Head:
Series tied at 5-5 SU Central Michigan is 6-4 ATS in last 10 meetings
Road team is 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings
Average score is 31-30 Ball St in last 10 meetings

Common Opponents:
Toledo 28 Central Michigan 56
Toledo 37 Ball St 30
Central Michigan 24 Bowling Green 10
Bowling Green 31 Ball St 17
Eastern Michigan 8 Central Michigan 56
Ball St 29 Eastern Michigan 27

Offense:
Central Michigan average 33 ppg on the road
Ball St averages 21 ppg at home

Defense:
Central Michigan allows and average of 18 ppg on the road
Ball St allows an average of 29 ppg at home

My Take:
No question Central Michigan looks like an easy choice in this contest. I mean you would gather that simply by looking at their records on the season. Now through in common opponents, Central Michigan averages 20 ppg more on offense and allows and average of 17 ppg less than Ball St against the same teams. They have one of the most underrated and best quarterbacks in the country. Seems like a slam dunk. I feel the same way as well with one minor hiccup that concerns me. Central Michigan is atop the MAC West but only have a one game lead over Northern Illinois whom by the way they play next week. This means a possible look ahead situation definitely exist in this game and unlike certain situations this kind really matters. Obviously I hope Central goes about business as usual but I have to be somewhat leery.

Program:
Central Michigan by 23.5 which based on the numbers is understandable and does give us plenty of value here.

Play:

Central Michigan -17 (1/2 unit, playing it safe just in case)

Wednesday November 18, 2009
6:00 PM
Buffalo @ Miami-Ohio

Records:
Buffalo 3-7 (4-6 ATS) 1-3 on the road
Miami-Ohio 1-10 (5-6 ATS) 1-3 at home

Trends:
Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last 8 as a favorite
Miami-Ohio is 4-9 ATS in last 13 home games

Head to Head:
Miami-Ohio is 9-1 SU 4-4 ATS in last 10 meetings
The over is 4-1 in last 5 lined meetings

Common Opponent:
Ohio 27 Buffalo 24
Miami-Ohio 7 Ohio 28
Bowling Green 30 Buffalo 29
Bowling Green 35 Miami-Ohio 14
Buffalo 13 Temple 37
Miami-Ohio 32 Temple 34
Buffalo averaged 4 ppg better than Miami-Ohio against these teams and allowed an average of 4 ppg less.

Offense:
Buffalo averages 21 ppg on the road
Miami-Ohio averages 20 ppg at home

Defense:
Buffalo allows an average of 28 ppg on the road
Miami-Ohio allows an average of 31 ppg at home

My Take:
Truly a crappy game between two crappy teams. Even for a mid-week MAC conference game this one doesn’t appear to be appealing. Buffalo has afforded me back to back good starts to y week in not covering their lines. I really looked for every possible way to ride them again this week but as a play on rather than against. There is a glimmer of hope but I think the best thing to do here is pass on it. I had a very slim margin when the line initially came out but all that value is gone now. Buffalo should be able to get a decent win against the spread in this contest but it’s not enough of a need to have to risk the coinflip here.

Program:
Likes Buffalo by 4.5

Play:

Pass

spal2811 · 11-17-09, 05:50 PM

good writeup

BIGPIMPN · 11-17-09, 06:58 PM

I am actually playing cent. mich and buffalo!!

wal66 · 11-17-09, 07:04 PM

I was working from my notes and headed to the book. The Central Michigan line has dropped to -14.5 which is cause for concern.

If you haven't made a play yet you may want to hold off. I mentioned in the write-up this was a look ahead spot and with this heavy line drop standsto reason others think this too.

This play is posted and stands as is but I would urge anyone not yet down to wait for a better game.

HoulihansTX · 11-17-09, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I was working from my notes and headed to the book. The Central Michigan line has dropped to -14.5 which is cause for concern. If you haven't made a play yet you may want to hold off. I mentioned in the write-up this was a look ahead spot and with this heavy line drop standsto reason others think this too. This play is posted and stands as is but I would urge anyone not yet down to wait for a better game.

Ball St is my play if I decide to go with it. Central Mich is absent of defense like all other MAC teams. Plus Ball St. has played everyone close in the MAC

Cougar Bait · 11-17-09, 07:11 PM

MAC weeknight games are garbage

Superman455 · 11-17-09, 07:48 PM

GL on the picks this week Wal

wal66 · 11-17-09, 08:27 PM

Houl's, I generally agree with most things you say but look at the write-up once again, Central Michigan's defense is only allowing and average of 18 ppg this season. While that's not on par with elite defenses it's still pretty damn good considering it's s MAC team.

HoulihansTX · 11-17-09, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Houl's, I generally agree with most things you say but look at the write-up once again, Central Michigan's defense is only allowing and average of 18 ppg this season. While that's not on par with elite defenses it's still pretty damn good considering it's s MAC team.

Make it happen WAL

kp126 · 11-18-09, 02:41 AM

I just compared actual spreads to what your model generated and its amazing how close most of those are. More than half are within 1.5 points. Im going to play spreads under 25 that is at least 5 points advantage when compared to your model. I will also take into account some factors such as let down spots, weather, injuries and trends. Will let you know what I can come up with as the best 3-6 games I find with your data.

Great work as always mr wal

bigcat1 · 11-18-09, 07:32 AM

wal you have quite the following, you deserve it though keep up the good work, are you still undecided about central michigan,

wal66 · 11-18-09, 11:40 AM

Cat's I'm on Central Michigan personally but I would still caution anyone looking into this game to really do their work and agree for themselves on this one. I'm down but since I'm only a half unit on it that should be fare warning that it's more of an action play than 100% confidence play.

I still feel Central Michigan is far and away the better team tonight but you can not overlook the importance of next week. If this game was before the Northern Illinois/Ohio U game and NIU had lost then I think you would see Central Michigan lay waste but since it's not who knows.

Speaking of Northern Illinois/Ohio U the loser of that game basically ends their chances of reaching the MAC Championship. As it stands right now Central Michigan sits atop the West with Northern Illinois trailing by 1 game and Temple sits atop the East with Ohio U trailing by 1 game. Next week both 1st and 2nd in the east and west play one another. Basically there is a lot at stake this weekend and next in the MAC. People can down this conference all they want but this type of ending makes football exciting.

iceminers26 · 11-18-09, 11:53 AM

Good luck Wal

Opposite of ya, rolling with Ball at home tonight.

bigcat1 · 11-18-09, 12:46 PM

mr . wal i was actually on cent mich anyway, but it always help when i see you on myside, i would rather win with ya, just ads confidence..good luck as usual

wal66 · 11-18-09, 01:22 PM

Ice, I can understand someone playing on Ball St, no problem having in fact I'm wishing everyone would jump on Ball St and drive the line down even more. Would make me feel a lil easier.

Cat's, I hope we have the right side tonight, I know we have the better team.

Finding it very difficult this week. I'm just not finding games with the value I usually require. Having to do way more research than I have done all season. Staying subjective is always a problem when the program isn't strong enough to really point out the games that have the best potential. I've either become too complacent with my program or never really developed capping skills beyond rank rookie according to the difficulty I am having this week. I hope others are finding things much easier. For me the entire card looks like a coinflip.

Leans so far include:

Wisconsin
Northern Illinois
Nebraska
Penn St
Air Force
UL Monroe
Florida Atlantic
Colorado St
Iowa St

Pretty sure my card won't be this large just trying to narrow these games down.

tblues2005 · 11-18-09, 01:25 PM

wal thanks for the warning on this game tonight with C. Michigan. I think they could get caught looking ahead here and I am going to pass on both games tonight. Tomorrow looks better than tonight.

tblues2005 · 11-18-09, 01:26 PM

wal thanks for the leans here and it does look like a little harder than normal this week. I would watch the injury report on these closely also. This time of year you can catch a team with unexpected injuries and then you could bet against them.

bigcat1 · 11-18-09, 01:37 PM

mr. wall i think i like niu game, but it is a coin flip, believe niu is the better team, you didn't mention my avatar change, (believe it or not that is my wife) (she finished second at the trickyjackson body building show bikini class, i may not know my football but i felt like i got lucky with her..

wal66 · 11-18-09, 01:57 PM

Cat's.............I would have mentioned the avatar had I known it was real. Just figured it was another random attractive lady pic. I would say you got lucky indeed sir.

tblues, you might be smart staying away. No reason to force a play when you can't be comfortable with it. Also you are correct about the injuries. I sometimes find myself realizing that I have missed looking into those some weekends. Try to always make that part of the process but when I go back over the results after some weeks I realize I miised that. Which is a good tip for everyone. make a checklist and make sure you have it completed before signing off any play. I gotta write that down for myself.

bigcat1 · 11-18-09, 02:15 PM

i noticed the central mich climbed up a 1.5, maybe thats to our benefit..

bigcat1 · 11-18-09, 02:36 PM

it seems like their is alot of people on the ball st team, taken the points,,i am like you i belive cen mich got the better squad,

wal66 · 11-18-09, 04:43 PM

Cat's no question they are the better tam, only question is how serious that approach tonights game.

BadFinger · 11-18-09, 06:36 PM

any one betting boise st -23 on current odds? you have lines at -27 and believe boise scores 40+ and utah state scores 14-17 if any one has strong lean why not to play boise?

BIGPIMPN · 11-18-09, 09:40 PM

WAL!!!
MY PLAYS!!!!

cent michigan
buffalo
oklahoma st x megaplay
bowling green
boise st
n illinois
wisconsin
iowa
s florida x megaplay
rutgers x megaplay
indiana
florida st
tennessee
temple x megaplay
penn st
ucla
utep
utah x megaplay
fresno st
colorado st
oregon
hawaii
ul-monroe

ALL THE OTHER GAMES ARE NOT GOOD. WAL, TRUST ME!!!

wal66 · 11-18-09, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by BIGPIMPN

WAL!!!
MY PLAYS!!!!

cent michigan
buffalo
oklahoma st x megaplay
bowling green
boise st
n illinois
wisconsin
iowa
s florida x megaplay
rutgers x megaplay
indiana
florida st
tennessee
temple x megaplay
penn st
ucla
utep
utah x megaplay
fresno st
colorado st
oregon
hawaii
ul-monroe

ALL THE OTHER GAMES ARE NOT GOOD. WAL, TRUST ME!!!

The highlighted ones are the ones I'm not on yet but seriously considering from my own research. Some have less than others but all have value either by program of analysis.