Wal's College Football Week #12

[wal66]

Man I love the MAC. Been money all season. Granted small money at times like tonight but money all the same. If I hadn't got caught up in the potential look ahead thing it would have been much more. But happy more for the win than the cash. I need 12 straight wins to close out the season in order to equal last years win percentage.

[Cougar Bait]

11 to go

You can do it

[sn00p]

Central Michigan was a no brainier, I think the line dropped just to fool you I had it at 17.5 and it covered easily. I checked it before work and i'm like wtf.

[sn00p]

Wal66 TRUST YOUR COMPUTER........ and do what I say.. in the last message when I told you how to pick.. But you dont need any advice from me, and I have won every freaking game I bet .

[sn00p]

I got Oklahoma state tomorrow.

[bigcat1]

wall write it down another mid week win, congrats..

[wal66]

Yeah Cat's for the most part the mid-week games have been very good this season. Well from a wagering perspective that is.

Snoop, I do trust my program but I don't and wouldn't blindly trust it. Last week for instance it was 50% as a stand alone process. Now someone else could see it differently and use it differently and have better resullts and I am happy for them. I use it the way I do because that's what I found works best for me. I started posting the data from the program on Sunday's when I have ran the numbers in order for others to see if they can benefit from it as it looks like you have. Congrats bro.

[wal66]

Thursday November 19, 2009
7:45 PM
Colorado @ Oklahoma St


Records:
Colorado 3-7 (5-4 ATS) 0-5
Oklahoma St 8-2 (5-3-1 ATS) 5-2

Trends:
Colorado is 6-2 ATS in last 8 games vs a team with winning record
Colorado is 6-15 ATS in last 21 road games
Okie St is 14-5 ATS in last 19 games vs a team with a losing record
Over is 32-13 in Okie St’s last 45 home games

Head to Head:
Colorado is 7-3 SU but Oklahoma St is 6-4 ATS in last 10 meetings

Common Opponents:
Colorado 10 Iowa St 17
Oklahoma St 34 Iowa St 31
Texas A&M 34 Colorado 35
Oklahoma St 36 Texas A&M 31
Missouri 36 Colorado 17
Missouri 17 Oklahoma St 33
Colorado 14 Texas 38
Texas 41 Oklahoma St 14

Offense:
Colorado averages 22 ppg on the road
Oklahoma St averages 33 ppg at home

Defense:
Colorado allows an average of 29 ppg on the road
Oklahoma St allows an average of 21 ppg at home

Next Game:
Colorado has Nebraska on deck
Oklahoma St has Oklahoma on deck

My Take:
I made the comment that I was only trying to limit myself to just the strongest plays and here I am doing a write-up on this game. I guess if I was holding to my word it might be taken for granted that the play is on Oklahoma St right? Well that might be the wise choice but I think I have some value here with a pitiful Colorado team. You can shop around and some places are still offering a better than average number on this game so either side you choose make sure to shop for the best number for you. Oklahoma St is clearly the better team and should have no trouble winning this game. A chance to play on national TV should be even more motivation. So how could I even contemplate a play on Colorado? I don’t have a good answer for you. I’m also certainly not advising anyone to follow my lead here. There is nothing but risk involved with this selection but something tells me Colorado has a shot at covering this number.
Program:
Oklahoma St by 18.5 so with some books offering 17 now you do have some small value

Play:
Colorado +17 (1/2 unit play)

[TheBetBuysDanK]

great start to the week, wal. going to big one for ya, i can feel it.

best of luck tonight, but im thinking that the cowboys roll here. +17 is a good spot though. When I line dropped, I though OSU easy. but as the line has climbed, so have my suspicions.

[jeccross]

Program:
Oklahoma St by 18.5 so with some books offering 17 now you do have some small value

Play:
Colorado +17 (1/2 unit play)

If the program says Oklahoma to win by 18.5 then why is the play colorado +17?

[wal66]

jeccross, I use my program as a guide to locate games to analyze not as a stand alone tool. after researching this game I found numbers that suggest Colorado could stay within the number. Don't doubt for a second that Oklahoma St wins and admit they could win large but I found what I needed to make me consider Colorado. Not trying to convince anyone else to follow my lead on this. Just posting what I am doing. Also along with the data Okie St has Oklahoma on tap next Sunday.

Dank........The Cowboys are the safe play tonight and I don't say that in a condescending way either. I am taking a huge gamble with a play on Colorado.

[bigcat1]

My main man wall

Every time i think about colorado, i think about that toledo thumping, i know some things have changed (like the qb) i don't think i will play that game, if i did it would be ok st, i really hope you win..i will watch the game and be on your side mentally but finacially couldn't join lol....but now i got a reason to watch it all good luck on that one, hope you cash in

[TJHotpicks]

Went to the Colorado/A&M game in Boulder and I could not believe how small the Colorado team was....at all positions. OK State is huge and should be able to manhandle the Buffs. -17 should be a good bet.

[BigdaddyQH]

Wal, what your computer can not do is measure the intangables,which make or break gamblers. Okie State is still in the running for the Fiesta Bowl. To get there, they must run the table, and look very good in doing so. Colorado is playing out another miserable season. The coaching has been abysmal. They have had a QB controversy. Rumor control has it that Hawkins is a lame duck coach. All of those intangables favor Okie State in this game. Add that on to the fact that they are by far the better team and a wager on Colorado seems as if you are throwing money away.

[wal66]

QH, the program actually says Oklahoma St is the correct play here. My play on Colorado is just a hunch play on my part and as you have stated is quite possibly just throwing the money away. In looking at the number they favor Oklahoma St on average by about the line in this game so add that to the program and you can see again how silly my playing Colorado in this spot really is.

About the only thing I have going for me in this game tonight is a hunch and a game next week against Oklahoma. I mean eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeverybody and their brother is already on Oklahoma St.

If I lose this game, I won't be surprised but it really comes down to either play Colorado or pass all together. Smart money says to pass but gut says take a chance. I didn't take a few chances last week and it cost my bottom line. I am taking a few this week and we'll just have to wait and see.

All that said though I repeat that you are absolutely 100% correct QH.

[BIGPIMPN]

WAL!!!!! Dont go against the program!!! F*ck a hunch!!! Oklahoma St tonight!! Never go against the odds?? Are you betting on these games or just doing picks?? Your numbers are dead on!!! Actually if you look at my picklist, this is one of my MEGAPLAY GAMES!!!

[LINE-crush-ER]

wal -66 do you concur
Miami may have won two of their last three coming into this contest, but they aren’t playing very well in my estimation.

The Fins needed a Herculean effort on Sunday just to beat the one-win Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-23 at home, winning on Dan Carpenter’s 25-yard field goal with just 10 seconds remaining in regulation.

Miami will have to contend with a Panthers team that has played fantastic football over the past three weeks, recording two solid upsets over the Cardinals and Falcons in the process.

The Dolphins will also likely be without starting running back Ronnie Brown who suffered a foot and ankle injury in Miami’s win over the Bucs.

Panthers at a glance

Carolina has been on a roll lately, laying two solid beatings on Arizona and Atlanta and nearly pulling off an upset of the undefeated New Orleans Saints in between those victories.

Carolina’s defense has been playing phenomenal football lately, picking off Matt Ryan twice in Sunday’s convincing 28-19 win just one week after forcing Drew Brees into two turnovers and picking off Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner five times the week before that.

Even better for the Panthers, is the fact that veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme appears to have gotten over an absolutely abysmal early-season slump, throwing three TD passes and no picks over the last three games after throwing 4 TD passes and a whopping 13 picks over his first six starts.

Keys to Victory

Miami

The Dolphins will have to slow down Carolina’s ferocious front four and avoid obvious passing situations that allow the Panthers’ defensive linemen to pin their ears back and put second-year quarterback Chad Henne under too much pressure.

Running the ball effectively will be crucial for Miami in this game if they are to have any chance at winning. With Ronnie Brown out for Miami, the Dolphins need another big game from former NFL rushing champion Ricky Williams who topped the 100-yard mark in Miami’s win over Tampa Bay.

Carolina

The Panthers need to continue running the ball effectively and win the turnover battle in this matchup. Gifted running backs DeAngelo Williams (92) and Jonathan Stewart (82) combined for 174 yards on 30 carries and a similar effort with help immensely in this contest.

Carolina could also use one or two long receptions against a Dolphins’ defense that has been susceptible to the deep ball this season. If Delhomme can hook up with Steve Smith for a few sizeable pass plays, Miami’s ‘seven in the box’ mentality should loosen up very quickly.

Key Trends

Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games overall.

Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games as a home favorite.



Analysis: I really like the Carolina Panthers to win this game and cover the NFL point spread by the slimmest of margins for devoted BetUs NFL pro football betting members.

I expect the Panthers to pressure Henne into making at least one or two costly mistakes while keeping the Dolphins on their heels defensively by using their mostly overpowering rushing attack to draw in Miami’s defenders before beating the over the top with Steve Smith and down the seams with Muhsin Muhammad.

The Panthers will have to do a better job of stopping the run than they did in Week 10 when they allowed Michael Turner to rush for 111 yards on just nine carries, but if they can pressure Henne like they did Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, they should be just fine.

Miami will also be in more traditional offensive formations than they usually are with Ronnie Brown, the key cog in their Wildcat offense, out of the lineup in this contest.

I also like the Under in this matchup as I expect Carolina’s defense to force Henne into a couple of turnovers and keep the Dolphins out of the end zone for the majority of this contest.

Carolina shut down a much more potent Atlanta Falcons offense in Week 10 and I expect a similar effort from the Panthers in this prime time matchup.

NFL Expert Picks: Panthers -3 Points/Under 43½ Total Points

[LINE-crush-ER]

Hope you dont mind the pro chat
Sorry I ve been gone for a bit
My brother has been on here a couple of times ,
hes a moron , although pretty good with the pros

[jeccross]

jeccross, I use my program as a guide to locate games to analyze not as a stand alone tool. after researching this game I found numbers that suggest Colorado could stay within the number. Don't doubt for a second that Oklahoma St wins and admit they could win large but I found what I needed to make me consider Colorado. Not trying to convince anyone else to follow my lead on this. Just posting what I am doing. Also along with the data Okie St has Oklahoma on tap next Sunday.

Dank........The Cowboys are the safe play tonight and I don't say that in a condescending way either. I am taking a huge gamble with a play on Colorado.

Fair enough, thanks for the response. What's your basis for conducting further research on a game, do you use the model to pick potential games or look at the whole list and think of external reasons the real number should be different from those and then research those games if you think the line is off?


I found a nice middle on this one so I'm hoping the line's spot on.

[wal66]

jeccross...I use the program as a filter. I use it to generate lines and then find where it is showing I have a predetermined amount of value over the actualy line. At that point I analyze the game as I would normally. With so many games and so little time in the week this is how I narrow the field down. Now having said that, what I generally find on the games I actually select is that the data supports the program. So they work hand in hand usually but neither is a stand alone process.

[wal66]

Crush............pardner when it comes to college football I will gladly offer any advice, assistance or opinions you want but when it comes to the NFL I am as potluck, coinflippy as there will ever be bro. What makes sense to me in the Pro's is generally the exact opposite of what will happen. Also I haven't even looked at who's playing who or what the lines are for the NFL. I won't know until Sunday morning when I decide which 50/50 plays I'll have for the day.

[LINE-crush-ER]

figured you might had something on it being a thursda night game '
I really liked ok state tonight
but with the qb issue who knows
although ok state receiver needs one more 200 yard game to own the record or something like that ????
just need the starting qB TO BE HERE FOR ME to pull up on that one

[LINE-crush-ER]

here I go again
sorry thats spiller , with Missouri Now Missouri I do like , He needs one more 200 yard receiving game to tie the ncaa record against Iowa state , A verv mediocre secondary filled with injuries

[j_m79_2000]

Hey Wal what do you think about the first half line of the Colorado @ Oklahoma St -10 game?

[wal66]

j_m.........I know I made a play Sunday night with a first half selection but it's not something I generally do. There will be a lot of hype early on and that could easily favor Oklahoma St being at home and all. On the other hand with Robinson not reportedly not playing Okie St might play it conseravtive. That's not to say they still don't come out and run it right down Colorado's throat. Tough call and I really have no answer here. That Sunday night thing was an anomaly.

[j_m79_2000]

Gotcha, thank you for responding back.

[jackpot269]

Wal thanks for sharing your program and your insight past it always like to see who your on and who the program likes I know you put a lot into this system and I just wanted to stop by to say thanks pal !!

[wal66]

jackpot.........I appreciate it as always.

You know SBR is about the only site where I post that I get constant feedback or responses. My orginal site I get as many views as here but I might get a chance to have 4-5 stop in and say something and I've been a member there since 2004 posting the exact same post as here. I never need attaboys or anything but real feedback and the occassional acknowledgement is nice ya know. I even enjoy when the responses don't agree with my selections because that gives me a chance to see it from a different persepctive sometimes.

[riggs]

jackpot.........I appreciate it as always.

You know SBR is about the only site where I post that I get constant feedback or responses. My orginal site I get as many views as here but I might get a chance to have 4-5 stop in and say something and I've been a member there since 2004 posting the exact same post as here. I never need attaboys or anything but real feedback and the occassional acknowledgement is nice ya know. I even enjoy when the responses don't agree with my selections because that gives me a chance to see it from a different persepctive sometimes.

Nothing set in stone yet Wal?

[wal66]

If you mean my plays for the weekend, then yeah I have them already done just need to post the write-ups for them. I will post them later this afternoon when I get off work here or tomorrow.

[wal66]

I said earlier in this thread that I only needed 12 straight wins to equal last years winning percentage, I went on to say with that in mind I was only playing my most solid of selections. So right after saying that what is the very first game I post? Colorado. I guess I am contradicting myself. I can’t change what I do. I play the games I find value in and that will have to continue regardless what my final percentage turns out to be.


Florida Atlantic: Based on the strength of schedule Troy has fared better given their 7-3 record compared to Florida Atlantics 3-6 record. Against common opponents Troy averages 5 more ppg on offense and allow 15 fewer ppg. Everything points to Troy steam rolling Florida Atlantic here. Florida Atlantic allows an average of 40.4 ppg on the road this season. I can’t give you one solid reason as to why I am putting money on Florida Atlantic this weekend and I would advise anyone that asks to avoid this game or play it safe with Troy. I’ll not insult anyone’s intelligence with reasons for this decision and just leave it as, it’s my play.

Penn St: Actually Michigan St has faced tougher opponents this season according to the strength of schedule. Playing against common against common opponents Penn St scored an average of 25 ppg and Michigan St averaged score was 24 ppg. On defense against those same teams Penn St allowed 10 ppg and Michigan St allowed an average of 21 ppg so Penn St does show an advantage there. Michigan St is a live home dog of 3 points or less and I know a lot of people like to blindly play the home team in that situation but as always I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. I have a program predicted score of 26-21 Penn St and I like that score here and am basing my play on that.

Rutgers: Syracuse is bad. Rutgers is not as bad. I like Rutgers here. Actually Syracuse does deserve some respect seeing how difficult their strength of schedule actually was this season. The teams didn’t look that tough but according to their ratings they were better than what Rutgers faced by a good margin. Syracuse just allows too many mistakes in the form of turnovers and Rutgers doesn’t make a lot of mistakes like that and definitely capitalize on those that do. I rated Rutgers as winning this game by 13-17 points so comparing that to the line I have plenty of value here and that equates into a play.

Iowa St: Wow, another high risk play that doesn’t have much of an upside and plenty of downside. Missouri might be the better team but the games I have actually seen this season they aren’t a really good team. I have no way of knowing what the expectations were for Iowa St this season but I have to believe they have performed a little better than many would have thought. Both teams are bowl eligible and maybe that is enough but I am hoping there is some fight in Iowa St to improve and gain access to a little better bowl game. My program says Missouri should win this game by 7 points and I will trust it stays less than twice that amount.

Nebraska: Now I am not laying this large of a number based on Nebraska’s stellar offense because they don’t have one. While capable of scoring what they do excel at this season is defense. I am laying this many points based on that defense. Looking for a huge effort here and to be honest will need a Kansas St turnover or two probably to cover but I’m willing to gamble on this happening and Nebraska covering the number. This is more a Wal play than a program play just so we’re clear here.

Air Force: Strictly a numbers play here. Average score against common opponents this season, Air Force 28-13 and BYU 37-22. Average score against schedule this season Air Force 29-15 on the road and BYU 35-22 at home. Average score between the two teams over the past 10 meetings Air Force 27 BYU 34. Top to bottom and side to side everything points to Air Force not winning this game but keeping it within the number.


Well that’s the card this week. Nothing about this card is easy money. In fact this is more of a high risk card than I have had all season.


Plays:

Florida Atlantic +16*

Penn St -3*

Rutgers -9.5*

Iowa St +15.5*

Nebraska -16.5*

Air Force +10*

[Cougar Bait]

With you on two against on one (you know the one)...GL this week Wal

[kotzwell88]

question, did your colorado "hunch" and or program take into account their qb not starting...because if not you may have lucked out... BOL anyways

[wal66]

question, did your colorado "hunch" and or program take into account their qb not starting...because if not you may have lucked out... BOL anyways

nope. I hadn't yet checked injury report until data was done

[wal66]

No balls is costing me money so far this week. 2-0 but only 1 unit profit. Ofcourse wins is all that realy matters at this point.