Coll FB: Notes and Plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, TENN is ruthless. That's some play-calling. They must see something they like.

Loser. 1-3 ytd on these 2h opinions.

Wonder if there's any reciprocal effect on the OhioSt/Geo line? TENN looked good w/ guys out. How good does that make GEO look?

[hehfest]

Loser. 1-3 ytd on these 2h opinions.

Wonder if there's any reciprocal effect on the OhioSt/Geo line? TENN looked good w/ guys out. How good does that make GEO look?

I had some on Clem 2nd half too. Another strange game. Clemson through 3 quarters dominate T.O.P. and plays in opponent end. Its not even close. Turning point for me was the 2nd possession 4th down run that fell short. Tenn 3 plays and TD. Clemson D. got torched. Corey Kluber has a lot to learn. Many times he's not reading the RPO play very good either. He did alright for a FREMN player in a big bowl game though. Defense let them down. Oh well!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ya. Moved the ball well for sure. After the play you referenced, Heupel jumped on them, quick score.

Like I said. There was some weakness Heupel saw. He wasn't afraid of this team at all, even w/ reserves playing.

I remember one old Steve Young saying. In big games, he said "Every time you kick a FG...you get a little closer to losing." In this game the kicker has to be driving Swinney batty.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just a few notes for the TCU/Mich game:

1) I've loved this TCU team during the year. Been on them a few times. Love the team speed.
...See all the big plays Mich hit at Ohio St. Feel like Mich team speed will neutralize Frog team speed.

2) See if TCU looks flat in this game.
...Look at the close calls TCU had. Comebacks vs OklaSt, vs KanSt and at Baylor. Instinct is that the schedule wore on them.

3) Selection process of the committee.
...I've heard reports on how the committee selects team. Let's just say that it's not very scientific. TCU deserves a selection based on representation but not on quality. Not one of the top four teams. Mich/OhioSt and top SEC teams are showing power, TCU may look like an outsider here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

TCU definitely not flat. TCU looks fired up. Should be a good game.

[hehfest]

I'll tell you. You can get away with jerk-off crap against Mac teams and still win or blow them out but TCU aint no band leader. Mich played 3 mac teams with their TOUGH non-conference schedule. Then, they rolled up the Big Ten with 1 win that impressed me a lot @ Ohio St. Penn St. overrated immho. Who else? Who else was worth dog-doo-doo in the Big Ten this year? I mean on a higher level? Just OHST and UM that was it. Hey, I'm glad you beat Illinois in the closing minutes at home because that was likely your second best opponent all year immho.

And I don't care about how the B10 does in these bowl games either. With UK missing their core as they were and as I posted a thread about coming in. There was no way that Iowa QB could be any worse than Pietras is/was. And UK had a major downgrade. QB is huge in college and the NFL. Even if UM comes back and wins this game, I'm not sold on them. If they beat an Oregon, or K-State, or even a FSU type team in non-conference I'd be far more confident that they could potentially be the best team around.

[hehfest]

I just don't see UM being able to come from behind against a team like TCU. This now means they have to focus on passing. They are more a running team as we know. Now, you need to pass the 2nd half. They could make a run, but they aren't built for this. I will eat my hat if I'm wrong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Your point is a good one:

*The Mich Non-conf schedule was a joke. Harbaugh even pulled back the reins vs Hawaii to not offend them.

*The Penn St win was a good performance.

*I had the ILL game circled. Thought it could be tricky and it was.

*They hit a Home Run at OhioSt. But it now looks like that was their best shot.

[hehfest]

Well, I don't have to eat my dam hat. And I would've. I would've cut it up into little pieces though for digestion. LOL! I think people might be over-looking OhSt because they lost to Michigan so convincingly. Its a tough call for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200
Marshall +$200
Liberty +$200
West KY +230
Syracuse +160
Not Dame +200
Alabama +300
Not Dame +200
LOSSES
Wash St -$321
Bowling Green -$202
UCF -$321
Ark -$214
Michigan -206

NET: +726. 9-5, only MissSt pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Amazing pre-season Big12 poll. Shows how far TCU was off the radar:

Big 12 media poll
1	Baylor (17)	365
2	Oklahoma (12)	354
3	Oklahoma State (9)	342
4	Texas (2)	289
5	Kansas State	261
6	Iowa State (1)	180
7	TCU	149
8	West Virginia	147
9	Texas Tech	119
10	Kansas	48

[hehfest]

And how wrong they were on baylor and okie from muskogee

[hehfest]

If we pull the Godfather into this: Harbaugh would be Hyman Roth. Roth (Harbaugh) played this one masterfully Chucky. He engineered it. In fact, Harbaugh really did show his true intelligence here. Let me explain (imagine Michael talking to Tom Hagen after they tried to murder him in the mountains at his place there).

You see Chucky, he knew that by scheduling nobody teams out of conference he would win all 3. Then, he also knew that his only bumps in the road were Penn State and @ Ohio State. Penn State and Ohio State were big games that needed major preparation. I think he knew Maryland would be decent, and Illinois did catch him off-guard. I doubt he saw that coming preseason. I know I didn't. How much time was in b/w Penn State and Ohio State? How many Rutgers/Indiana's were mixed in b/w? With that crappy MSU team? Yeah, the school that gave Tucker a huge contract riding on the wings of Kenneth Walker for one year?

So, he devised this plan for certainty. All he had to do was beat Penn St and Ohio St. and he's in the FF. He figured they might face a challenge somewhere else but squeeze out a win here or there. So, he focused everything on those 2 games.

He was able to hide their weaknesses with cupcakes everywhere else. And time in b/w the big games to prepare the x's and o's. Because, odds are if they were @USC and home to Notre Dame in the non-conference they lose one of those.

I can't blame Roth (Harbaugh) for the plan.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Love hearing that, Jack. I've always thought the bowl games offered better value than the Regular Season.

See my note #1. I hate all these skip-outs. Unless you're the #1 OVERALL pick, you should be playing this game.

If I see skip-outs, I'm mostly passing the game. Only exception = Notre Dame, who I still think is much > the Gamecocks.

Two added plays:
3* UCF +3 (-107). $321 to win 300.
2* Mississippi St +2.5 (-108). $216 to win 200.
...They voted to play the game in honor of Coach Leach. So, I expect them to be laser-focused.

Line has done the full flip on the MissSt/ILL game. I do think there's some sentiment to "honor Coach Leach".

Hedging back half my bet. Playing ILLINOIS +3 (-102). 102 to win 100.

Illinois has an excellent defense. I think the points can play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

heh, good stuff. You might have a future in Hollywood script-writing.

Just a few thoughts:
*Could Harbaugh possibly be so good to identify the cracks in the armor on Penn St and Ohio St? Michigan hit the big plays amazingly well vs Penn St and Ohio St. 60-yard touchdowns like they're nothing.
*I was well aware of TCU. Have been admiring them since opening day showing at Colorado. I knew they were FAST.
*In order for TCU to win big games, they have to hit 3+ big plays. And I'll say they did it vs Michigan.
*The long TD catch/run by Johnston is one. But add in the two pick-6s. Some will say that's luck but it takes a unique talent for a DB to anticipate/catch/score.

Anyway, I don't read the TCU/Michigan game as fluky. If anything, I have to question Jim's preparation:
*The trick play at the goal-line. Team speed is TCU's game. Have to beat them on power.
*The Johnston play. Is it preventable? I don't know.
*McCarthy throwing the two pick-6s. Just tells me he hasn't faced DBs like that.

Anyway, enjoy the final, Geo vs TCU. I don't know what to think. If no bet, I'll root for the underFrogs.

[navyblue81]

Line has done the full flip on the MissSt/ILL game. I do think there's some sentiment to "honor Coach Leach".

Hedging back half my bet. Playing ILLINOIS +3 (-102). 102 to win 100.

Illinois has an excellent defense. I think the points can play.

The “Leach factor” has to be accounted. Feel like MSU may be playing for him here. Leaning MsU.

LSU -16 seems way too high. Purdue isn’t that bad and LSU isn’t that good.

Really can’t mKe much of a case for TCU simply because I don’t see Georgia making the stupid mistakes Michigan did. They’re a much more well-oiled machine. I feel it could be ugly. It’s not a good matchup for TCU at all. That said, this bowl season has been the year for the underdog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The “Leach factor” has to be accounted. Feel like MSU may be playing for him here. Leaning MsU.

LSU -16 seems way too high. Purdue isn’t that bad and LSU isn’t that good.

Really can’t mKe much of a case for TCU simply because I don’t see Georgia making the stupid mistakes Michigan did. They’re a much more well-oiled machine. I feel it could be ugly. It’s not a good matchup for TCU at all. That said, this bowl season has been the year for the underdog.

Hey, Navy. Happy 2023. My thoughts:

1) See my previous post. I bet MissSt a long time ago. There was a chance the team might skip out, but they voted to play (according to the AD). Big difference between +2.5 and -3. Of course, I like the +2.5 I'm holding.

2) Of all the bowl games, the LSU/Purdue line surely looks the most insane. See the other guys in the Coll FB section, dissecting these games can be maddening. The early line was LSU -6.5, if you can believe that. Purdue then had several opt-outs...but LSU has had opt-outs, too! So, how could -16 possibly be the right #? One personal observation, Drew Brees joined the Purdue staff for one game to facilitate Brohm's move out. You'd think that would be a motivational tool for the Boilers.

3) Your point is good on Georgia not making the mistakes. But people have been discounting the Frogs all year long. The real handicapping task on this game (IMHO) is to evaluate the relative Strength of Schedule.

I don't bash the Big12. Kansas improved this year and made a bowl. That means the whole conference was competitive. Opponents might not be top10...but the whole conference was (virtually) top 50. You could get beat every week.

To your point, I'm of the belief that championship games normally play to form. Few surprises. Georgia might be 18 pts better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can't believe he gave up 7 yards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200
Marshall +$200
Liberty +$200
West KY +230
Syracuse +160
Not Dame +200
Alabama +300
Not Dame +200
Miss St +98
LOSSES
Wash St -$321
Bowling Green -$202
UCF -$321
Ark -$214
Michigan -206

NET: +824. 10-5. Miss St covers but Illinois hedge loses.

Wow. If you had Illinois +3 or +3.5...quite the finish ATS.

[hehfest]

Illinois played pretty well defensively considering they were missing possibly the top corner in the country and another high end safety that should be picked early too. Will that corner be a round 1 pick in the draft? Add in Illinois missing that RB as well and to me Miss St wins this game. I know the opt-out thing didn't factor in much in these games but it certainly did affect Kentucky and Illinois too. Take that Purdure QB out too from playing and you are seeing it more on the last day.

As far as Harbaugh, I think the fact he had all that time to prepare and still lost to TCU - TCU is really good. Let's face it, you don't prepare for Rutgers this year. He didn't need to prepare for Indiana much either. Indiana did play them tough though.

The Big Ten just wasn't that good this year. Mich and Oh St, and Penn St to me was a very distant 3rd. Wisconsin was awful. Iowa was Iowa. That doesn't change much. Minny seemed to have some momentum but they were mediocre. Illinois and Maryland very well could've been considered 4th and 5th in the conference. Illinois lost some key players and tail-spinned.

If I compare them to the Big12, Pac12, and SEC the B10 was awful this year. I don't think the ACC was that great either. I would rank the power 5:

Sec
Tie b/w B12 and Pac12
B10
ACC