Coll FB: Notes and Plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Tried to get pumped for this year's bowl season. But I see what people mean. These player opt-outs make it such a tough handicap.

*On the positive, props to BYU and SMU. Both teams played to win. Battled thru injuries, BYU had several new guys play well.

*Florida should be banned from Bowls. What a lay-down. Do they really get a check for that showing?

[Regul8er]

This Boise/North Texas game has been fun! Pretty obvious both teams want to win, very heated game, with alot of firepower.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This Boise/North Texas game has been fun! Pretty obvious both teams want to win, very heated game, with alot of firepower.

You're right, Reg. Been watching this game. Pretty nice effort.

Hope you're doing well. Happy Holidays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200

LOSSES
Wash St -$321

[209 Life]

Wow Boise St run game came alive 2nd half.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Was listening to interview with Okla HC Brent Venables:

*More of the same. Some top players sitting out.

Picked up on something that makes no sense to me. Some of the OKLA players will skip the Bowl game...but play in the Senior Bowl? What is that all about?

BTW, I was scouting out the Sooners. I would think they could play w/ Fla St if they had a full roster. Looks like another game that will be tough to play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I know this list is dated. Several Sooners on the list:

College football players skipping bowl games

• Florida QB Anthony Richardson
• Kentucky QB Will Levis
• Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
• Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Oklahoma DL Jalen Redmond
  
• Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison
  
• Oklahoma OT Wanya Morris
  
• Oklahoma RB Eric Gray
• Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
• Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
• Pitt DT Calijah Kancey
• Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt
• Utah RB Tavion Thomas

One of the top wide receivers in the country decided he will skip out on his team's bowl game. Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt will miss the Orange Bowl as he prepares for the NFL draft. He caught 67 passes for 1,267 yards with 15 touchdowns.

Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer became the latest player to announce his intention to skip the bowl game, with ESPN reporting he will sit out the Gator Bowl against South Carolina to turn his attention to the NFL draft. Mayer caught 67 passes for 809 yards and a career-best nine touchdowns in 2022.
Kentucky quarterback Will Levis announced Dec. 7 he will skip the Wildcats' Music City Bowl matchup with Iowa as he prepares for the NFL Draft. In his senior year with Kentucky, Levis completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 2,406 passing yards.

Anthony Richardson announced Monday on Twitter that he was skipping Florida's Las Vegas Bowl game against Oregon State to begin draft prep.


The redshirt sophomore was responsible for 26 touchdowns (17 passing, nine rushing) as he led the Gators to a 6-6 record in 2022. He threw for a career-high 453 yards in a loss at Tennessee.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba told ESPN on Monday that he is opting out of the Buckeyes' College Football Playoff semifinal vs. top-ranked Georgia. The receiver is instead preparing for the 2023 NFL Draft. He has dealt with a lingering hamstring injury all season, one that limited him to just five catches for 43 yards.
"I want to be out there competing with my brothers more than anything," Smith-Njigba told ESPN. "The decision to turn pro was made after I was unable to come back on multiple occasions during the season and the doctors determined I would be unable to participate in the playoffs."
According to the OU Daily, four Oklahoma players have opted out of the Cheez-It Bowl against Florida State. Running back Eric Gray, who rushed 213 times for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns; defensive lineman Jalen Redmond, who had four sacks and 10 tackles for loss in his redshirt junior year; and offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Wanya Morris will each sit out.
One of the top players to opt out, Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr., announced he would miss the Rose Bowl against Utah to prepare for the NFL Draft. Porter had 27 tackles and 11 pass breakups and was a first-team All-Big Ten selection.

Penn State's opponent will also be without one of its top players. Utes running back Tavion Thomas announced before Utah's Pac-12 championship victory over USC his intention to sit out the remainder of the season, citing a toe injury. Thomas had 142 carries for 687 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022.

Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a possible first-round selection, announced he would be opting out of the Holiday Bowl against North Carolina. The redshirt sophomore corner registered 50 tackles, including one for a loss, four interceptions and seven pass breakups.

Pitt junior defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, said he would not be participating in the Panthers' Sun Bowl game against UCLA due to his health. He will continue to help prepare his teammates for the game. He has not yet announced his intentions to declare for the NFL Draft. He finished the season with 7.5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss and 31 total tackles.



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[jackpot269]

I know this list is dated. Several Sooners on the list:

College football players skipping bowl games

• Florida QB Anthony Richardson
• Kentucky QB Will Levis
• Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
• Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Oklahoma DL Jalen Redmond
  
• Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison
  
• Oklahoma OT Wanya Morris
  
• Oklahoma RB Eric Gray
• Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
• Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
• Pitt DT Calijah Kancey
• Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt
• Utah RB Tavion Thomas

One of the top wide receivers in the country decided he will skip out on his team's bowl game. Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt will miss the Orange Bowl as he prepares for the NFL draft. He caught 67 passes for 1,267 yards with 15 touchdowns.

Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer became the latest player to announce his intention to skip the bowl game, with ESPN reporting he will sit out the Gator Bowl against South Carolina to turn his attention to the NFL draft. Mayer caught 67 passes for 809 yards and a career-best nine touchdowns in 2022.
Kentucky quarterback Will Levis announced Dec. 7 he will skip the Wildcats' Music City Bowl matchup with Iowa as he prepares for the NFL Draft. In his senior year with Kentucky, Levis completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 2,406 passing yards.

Anthony Richardson announced Monday on Twitter that he was skipping Florida's Las Vegas Bowl game against Oregon State to begin draft prep.


The redshirt sophomore was responsible for 26 touchdowns (17 passing, nine rushing) as he led the Gators to a 6-6 record in 2022. He threw for a career-high 453 yards in a loss at Tennessee.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba told ESPN on Monday that he is opting out of the Buckeyes' College Football Playoff semifinal vs. top-ranked Georgia. The receiver is instead preparing for the 2023 NFL Draft. He has dealt with a lingering hamstring injury all season, one that limited him to just five catches for 43 yards.
"I want to be out there competing with my brothers more than anything," Smith-Njigba told ESPN. "The decision to turn pro was made after I was unable to come back on multiple occasions during the season and the doctors determined I would be unable to participate in the playoffs."
According to the OU Daily, four Oklahoma players have opted out of the Cheez-It Bowl against Florida State. Running back Eric Gray, who rushed 213 times for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns; defensive lineman Jalen Redmond, who had four sacks and 10 tackles for loss in his redshirt junior year; and offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Wanya Morris will each sit out.
One of the top players to opt out, Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr., announced he would miss the Rose Bowl against Utah to prepare for the NFL Draft. Porter had 27 tackles and 11 pass breakups and was a first-team All-Big Ten selection.

Penn State's opponent will also be without one of its top players. Utes running back Tavion Thomas announced before Utah's Pac-12 championship victory over USC his intention to sit out the remainder of the season, citing a toe injury. Thomas had 142 carries for 687 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022.

Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez, a possible first-round selection, announced he would be opting out of the Holiday Bowl against North Carolina. The redshirt sophomore corner registered 50 tackles, including one for a loss, four interceptions and seven pass breakups.

Pitt junior defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, said he would not be participating in the Panthers' Sun Bowl game against UCLA due to his health. He will continue to help prepare his teammates for the game. He has not yet announced his intentions to declare for the NFL Draft. He finished the season with 7.5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss and 31 total tackles.



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Edward Sutelan is a content producer at The Sporting News.






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Thanks for all the player info Chucky. Judging by the games yesterday the "next man up" not always even close to what you were expecting!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Jack. As optimistic as I was for this thread, I have to be realistic. These personnel changes have an impact.

If Oklahoma has all these NFL prospects, WHERE were they MIA versus TCU? All I saw was a TCU track meet.

[jackpot269]

Tried to get pumped for this year's bowl season. But I see what people mean. These player opt-outs make it such a tough handicap.

*On the positive, props to BYU and SMU. Both teams played to win. Battled thru injuries, BYU had several new guys play well.

*Florida should be banned from Bowls. What a lay-down. Do they really get a check for that showing?

If they are 100% heathy and don't play, their scholarship should not pay for that semester. With few exception(death in family for example)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

More of this. UCF multiple opt-outs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWd1SswzrCo

WR Keene: didn't even bother to play the Conf Champ game.
CB Brown
LB Jean-Batiste
WR O'Keefe

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #13 = 2* Bowling Green -3.5. $202 to win 200.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

File this away under Too Many Bowl Games.

I'll pontificate for a few minutes on this. Start w/ 5-win Rice, who was granted an exemption to fill an open bowl slot. Gore Jr ran for a record # of yards vs Rice and made them look unworthy.

I don't know the NCAA reasoning but they sometimes get these requests for a waiver on the 6-win cutoff. You normally can only count ONE win versus non-FBS opponents.

Army was one of the applicants this year. They did score a 6th win vs Navy but two of their opponents (Colgate, Villanova) are FCS teams. Villanova is actually pretty good, they'd rate similarly to Nevada.

Army was denied (for some reason). New Mexico St also applied...with what I'll call a clearly inferior resume. New Mex St's game 12 win came against Valaparaiso who rates as a very weak opponent.

When I was perusing the bowl schedule, I couldn't believe that New Mex St made it. Start w/ their losses:
*Nevada, UTEP, FlaIntl (who is really bad).
*Hammered by three bowl teams.

ARMY had a MUCH stronger resume. They had four close losses (10 pts or fewer) versus bowl teams.

Army did beat a bowl team (UConn) by 17 pts. They beat one common opponent (Mass) by a much wider margin (than NewMexSt).

The one asterisk on New Mexico St is that they had a cancelled game that denied them an 11th game vs an FBS opponent. San Jose St (in mid-season) had a player death during game week. Game was canceled, which may have contributed to NCAA granting New Mex St the exemption. I can say confidently that New Mex St was not likely to have beaten San Jose St.

The Valparaiso game was added to the schedule after New Mex St sought out an extra opponent for the 6th win. That was with the exemption in tow and HC Jerry Kill wanting to get to a bowl game.

Ultimately, New Mex St is not a bowl-worthy team. They are filling out the roster. Bowling Green has been a turnaround program under this Head Coach.

The Ohio/Michigan travel is short for MAC teams. Bowling Green fans can make the short drive to Detroit. They should have enough fans to make it feel like a home field advantage.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200
Marshall +$200
LOSSES
Wash St -$321

...Wasn't easy. But the Herd do polish em off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One other note re: the Bowling Green selection. Reference the 11/26 game: New Mex St at Liberty.

This actually ties out to two of my plays. Anti-New Mex St and pro-Liberty. New Mex St won by 35 pts in a game I have to call one of the biggest outliers of the season.

New Mex St aint that good...and Liberty aint that bad. Props to New Mex St for playing a great game. But I have to chalk part of the Liberty no-show to their coaching situation at the time.

Freeze accepted the Auburn position on 11/28. So, it's fair to say his head may have been elsewhere on 11/26. The players had to know he was on the way out, and they laid an egg.

Do as you see fit. I'm telling you what I think of that 11/26 game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

More opt-outs. And I still don't understand it:

*Orange Bowl. Tenn WRs Hyatt and Tillman opt-out.

Hyatt is a young player on the rise. He should be playing this game to IMPROVE his stock. Same for KY qb Levis, who could SHOW himself against a tough defense.

How could you ever draft a guy like that? SMU qb Mordecai did well (IMHO). Played in tough conditions and did everything he could to help his team. I'd have no problem drafting Mordecai into my QB room. Looks like a team guy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Btw, I think Tenn/Clem is a pass.

I would have considered backing the Vol backup QB. At least you know you catch a price. And that guy already showed he can produce.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Toledo QB injured. Finn was more athletic, Gleason looks more limited.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Toledo QB injured. Finn was more athletic, Gleason looks more limited.

Finn back in. Good player.

Pretty impressed by Liberty's team speed. It LOOKS like they are interested today.

We'll see how it plays out. Liberty's offensive gameplan might be dubious.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, Liberty is bad:

*No offense.
*Lucked out on the muffed punt. Proceeded to go from the 2 back to the 22.
*Whiffed on the FG.

And the coach has to accept the Holding at midfield. Best chance to GAIN yardage = penalties on opponent.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How did Toledo bite on that?

I wouldn't have any confidence in Toledo going 70 yards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200
Marshall +$200
Liberty +$200
LOSSES
Wash St -$321

NET = +$579
...Really fortunate cover. I thought Liberty looked dead.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Taking the unusual stance of hedging back some of my risk.

Playing: So Alab (pk) -176. $70 to win 40.

...Don't like all the moving parts on West KY offense.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

WINS
BYU +$300
No Texas +$200
Marshall +$200
Liberty +$200
West KY +230
LOSSES
Wash St -$321

...West KY wins outright. Small loss on the hedge.

[jackpot269]

...West KY wins outright. Small loss on the hedge.

Nice catch on the WKU ML. Good hit!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice catch on the WKU ML. Good hit!!

Jack, I wish I had the +200. I only had the points.

Actually hedged back. See post 58. Cleared a good profit, but lost the SoAlab hedge-back.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

On the topic of Moneyline Dogs, there used to be a strategy of putting 10 to 20% of your risk on the Moneyline Dog...if you like the Dog in the bowl game.

There was good logic on this. Had to do with the variance in the bowl games. Sometimes, one team is excited and the Favorite is less interested.

In the modern-game, I'd offer a few caveats:
1) Is the Moneyline price fat enough to take you off the Spread?
2) Is the Moneyline Fav/Dog straddle too fat?

IMHO, the straddles are often close to being criminal. You get 10-cents for every minus 100. That's it:
*10-cents on -100
*20-cents on -200. So, -200/+180.
*30-cents on -300. So, -300/+270.

If it's shorter, you have to bring a gun. I'm not gonna just give you my money.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How much of an outsider was TCU (in pre-season)? I don't even think they were viewed as better than middle of the road in the Big 12.

Found this Jimmy Vaccaro tweet:
























Jimmy Vaccaro




@JimmyVaccaro

·
Dec 17













here was are openers to win it all back in february geo. u 3-1 mich u 25-1 ohio st 5-1 tcu 200 -1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

No play on AF/Bay.

Just a heads-up. Monitor the weather on this game. Cold front impacting this game and games around the country.

Cold would seem to benefit Air Force more. But I've seen Baylor play in Cold/Wind as well. Baylor shouldn't mind these conditions.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

AF driving early. Couple conversions.

Baylor defensive player opted out THIS MORNING. Unbelievable, not like you'd want to put a good showing on tape...or anything.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

No play for 2h. But I don't think Wake For looks that good.

Muffed punt was a gift. Would have taken Mizz +0.5...don't like pk.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think Tulane may be the most underrated team in the nation even though they are 11-2, I think? But I still can't see how they beat KSU?
I didn't watch any of that game, and not sure how it played out, but that's why you tee it up!

Hey, Jack. I'm reviewing notes. Saw your post.

I think your insight on Tulane is very good. I've had one eye on Tulane:

*They beat Houston with the top QB (Pratt) injured.

*They were upset by So Miss. But So Miss is not a bad team. Just won their bowl game in style behind Gore Jr.

Tulane produced solid results all year long. If you follow my other comments...Tulane's bowl game becomes very murky b/c of the OPPONENT. Who is playing for USC?

I've said it before. The bowl system needs a major overhaul. The personnel changes leading up to the bowl...make it a very tough handicapping task.

I already feel like I over-extended myself on the games I listed. I WISH Tulane was playing a full-strength Southern Cal. In that case we could catch a good number and see how they stack up.

Anyway, my instinct is that Tulane will be thrilled to play a name opponent in a big bowl. I'll be rooting for Tulane to show out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

And yes, the Tulane win at Kan St looks pretty good now. Road win over Big 12 champ.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't like him being Short on that FG. I'd hope that you tested his distance and just Hit It poorly.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The Bowl GR qb injury could be a big deal. He had a late-season injury as well.