Penix looking shaken up a bit since that first pick, I think has 2 now? I got them live +16,5 but I’m not confident even in that! Oh well…really like your picks tomorrow especially Ark and SBama. Curious why you aren’t adding Kentucky +7 to the list? Think they have a better defense than Ole Miss, and should be able to keep this one within 1 possession maybe even win outright
-
Comment -
Also, take a look at NC st +7! Clemson got so lucky to win at WF last week and I think this could be an upset/let down spot for them at home. Just haven’t watched enough NC st games to pull the triggerComment -
Got Over 52.5 Live with Purdue/Minn. DK handing out profit boosts for Big Ten so why not. Won't count towards my picksComment -
Ole Miss 4th/1 at their 42. Going for it, but dumbshit Oline has false start. Not a great start for OverComment -
TD Kentucky. They've missed a FG and extra point already, but hopefully it will still push Over
These fkn kickers? Utah St kid beats me with 50 yd fg on the road on Thursday, but today I'm on Overs and they start shanking again. Minn missed a 28 yarderComment -
Adding:
Mich St/Maryland Over 13.5 1Q (+110 w boost) DK
Maryland seems to start fast usually and hopefully Sparty won't completely shit the bed. Using one of the other Big Ten boostsComment -
Ole MIss 4th goal/5 and goes for it and fails. WTF? Take the 3 and you can put it away up 9 with a FG later or get the lead back w/a FG if Kentucky scores a TD. Both teams pissing away points. Probably losing nowComment -
Kentucky QB 2 fumbles in the red zone. Could've went OT. Kentucky also misses fg and 2 extra points. Kiffin doesn't take the FG 4th and goal from the 5. 19-12 at half and Over shits the bed.
That hurt, but moving onComment -
Adding:
Kansas +4 (-115) Bovada
Riding Daniels and the Jayhawks. They're feeling it and the home crowd is even pumped up in Lawrence for a change. $230-$200Comment -
Iowa St and Sparty both missed FGs
Maybe it will even out
Kansas is better then people think. Their defense can play a little bit too. Should've picked them in the challengeComment -
Adding:
Bazelak Indiana Over 256.5 passing (-120) DK
Nebraska 4 sacks in 4 games so I think Bazelak gets in range of 300 again
Comment -
[QUOTE=Fred The Hammer;31011081]Adding:
Kansas +4 (-115) Bovada
Riding Daniels and the Jayhawks. They're feeling it and the home crowd is even pumped up in Lawrence for a change. $230-$200
College kicking swung back my way just in time! Iowa State kicker can't make shit. Kansas offense was terrible, but it hit!
Bama was just trying to run the clock out and keep scoring TDs. Arkansas cut it from 28-0 to 28-23 and still won't coverComment -
A punt and a Bama personal foul. All set up for a garbage time cover, but Arkansas pulled Jefferson
Goddamn. Limp dick Arkansas WR catches the ball on 4th/5 and has the first down and goal to go if he runs over the guy, but he tries to dance and gets stopped a yard short. Lost
10-7 last 17 picksLast edited by Fred The Hammer; 10-01-22, 06:20 PM.Comment -
Must win for my Hoosiers. They haven't won a bowl since 1992 I think? 3-1 and really only 3 winnable games after this one with @Sparty, @Rutgers, and Purdue.Comment -
Yeah Indiana hasn't won a bowl since 1991 and lost 6 in a row. Thankfully I forgot about that Tennessee bs from a few years ago. They were up 22-9 with like 4 min left and didn't cover an onside kick and lost 23-22Comment -
10-8 last 8 picks
My Over was way Over at half Lost
S Alabama covering 4Q Lost
Arkansas covering 4Q Lost
Jeez. Really need Indiana +5.5 to cover and Bazelak Over 256.5 or whatever it is. The Bazelak bet was basically a hedge because if they were losing then he'd throw it 50 times atleast
Indiana & Nebraska are definitely the 2 dumbest and worst coached teams in the B10. Neb puts in the backup QB for no reason at their own 10 and he ends up fumbling in the end zone. IU has like 3 guys blast thru and gives up a punt block TD
21-21 tieComment -
Adding:
Caleb Williams USC Over 2.5 TD passes (+110) DK
They didn't look that great last week, but now they're at home and I'm expecting an effort like UCLA had last night.Comment -
Love to see Georgia lose. Some guy in the poker room was telling me 2 weeks ago that they were #1 far and away and the defense was even better then last year. News flash Missouri got blown out by KState. They're not that goodComment -
3 PICK PARLAY+402+483
Maryland, South Alabama, Indiana
OPEN
Wager: $56.09To Pay: $327.17
Be nice if I hit this ML parlay $60 wins $290.Comment -
Indiana covering 4Q lost
IU shutout 2H so far. Defense can only make so many stops before they wear out. This goddamn university just cannot field a football team that plays smart fb where offense/def/spec teams compliment each other.Comment -
AQ $700
Fred -$568
Probably put me away already. Glad I had so much on Mid Tenn Over because today has been a bitch. I really need Bazelak to get some garbage yards. IU had all the momentum and just pissed it away.
Nebraska is a shit program and literally gave IU a TD and they still got smoked. I'm done with them. Not watching another quarter. They'll go 4-8 at best. I knew better then to bet those dumb MFers, but I thought Nebraska was bad enough to give them a shotLast edited by Fred The Hammer; 10-01-22, 10:18 PM.Comment -
1-0 last 1 pick
My thread. My rules
Seriously if you tail me on Saturdays then you have your own problems anyway. Thurs/Friday games have been cashing regularly atleast.
My way of thinking thats what we're trying to do anyway. Learn from your losses and get on a heater!
I'm not rooting for you to lose either. You seem like an ok guy. I didn't realize you had your own thread before you posted here. Too many guys like to talk shit when you lose, but they don't have the balls to put themselves out there.
Actually I don't even play a ton of CFB normally. Maybe 3 games a week while I work and then I build up for the bowl season, but MLB was so good that I thought I'd cap a ton of CFB. Not horrible, but its been a rough start.Comment -
Fred, I only bet one sport. College Football. I create my own set of numbers, I look for difference between my lines and Vegas lines, and that is how I find opportunity. I'll hit around 60%, but I have had years that have been horrible. It is the nature of the beast.
As long as I have been posting a pick thread, I learned one thing- I DO NOT think you are doing it now, but when guys don't post their season record, and focus on "the last 10" or "the last 8"--historically they usually are trying to drum up some tout business.
I DO NOT think that is your intention. I think you are trying to remain positive in a tough business.
Remember, you pick first this week---- get after it. Win or lose, you can see, I will not talk smack.Comment -
Just trying to stay positive, but I'll quit for a while if I keep getting 4Q covers that lose. If you're capping with doubt then you're no good.
Anyway should be 2-0 NFL today. Seattle/Detroit Over 47.5 was my fav play since every Lions game has gone Over and Geno Smith has actually played pretty well. Picked up Colts/Tenn Live Over 47.5 too. Both look good, but I thought that with Ole Miss Over yesterdayLast edited by Fred The Hammer; 10-02-22, 01:44 PM.Comment -
Thats good that you're disciplined. Keep it up! How do you run with bowl season? I really study things like coaching changes, guys sitting out, etc. Teams expected to be top 25 preseason and now they're 7-5 and going to the SUn Bowl, etc
I remember a few years ago Oregon had this badass RB with 1500 yards and he sat out for their bowl vs Boise. It was Herberts freshman year actually and the Ducks were still -7. I said no fkn way are they covering, in fact Boise will win. Herbert wasn't great his freshman year. From memory he was like 15 TDs/10 picks I think? Boise gave up like 2 pick 6s from 90 yards out and still won easily! Could've beat them by 28. It was 2017 and Boise 38-28Last edited by Fred The Hammer; 10-02-22, 01:47 PM.Comment -
The Potato Bowl is a big winner for me nearly every year too. Think about it. Who TF wants to go to Idaho in January?
Central Mich was -1 over Josh Allen/Wyoming the day before the game. Wyoming will have the best player in the game and the crowd and the MAC is usually worse then the Mountain West. That was a layup. Team based closest to Boise has won 8 of the last 10 with many being dogs
2 years ago Nevada vs Tulane. No fkn way are a bunch of kids from the deep south going to be motivated to go to Idaho/January. Nevada easy winner
Going all the way back to 2007. Georgia Tech fired their coach and everyone was in turmoil, but they're favored vs Fresno? Fresno easyComment -
3-1 NFL and should've been 4-0 if Tenn would ever score 2H. Posted KC +0.5 1H and SF on Sbr somewhere
Had Milw Under 3.5 tonight MLB and squeaked that one out too (posted on Louisville Kids thread)
I might post other stuff on here too like Louisville does, but I don't usually do much on MLB playoffsComment