Mac's early leans 2017

[Mac4Lyfe]

NFL early plays

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Football - 477 Atlanta Falcons -1 -119 buying ½ for 1st Half
Football - 475 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -107 for 1st Half
Football - 467 Miami Dolphins -4 -129 buying 1½ for Game
Football - 463 Cleveland Browns -115 for Game
Football - 463 Cleveland Browns -116 for 1st Half
Football - 472 New England Patriots -13 -108 for Game
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[Mac4Lyfe]

Week 5 CFB
I hate Friday night CFB but I'm rolling with 2 plays
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41 Football - 108 Nebraska vs Illinois under 24 -115 for 1st Half
41 Football - 108 Illinois +3 -105 for 1st Half
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I really like (BYU -1) tonight as well but I'm sniffing shenanigans. I'll most likely take a 2nd half or live bet if I can tune in. Headed to HS football. BOL everyone.

[eastvan09]

BOL Mac!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Added play. Big play if you can get it
43 Nebraska Spread -½ +105 for 3rd Quarter

[Mac4Lyfe]

Illini look like they've quit. Seen this before. NB 2nd half and large 3rd quarter. 2 units and 5 units.

[eastvan09]

Good cap in game.

[eastvan09]

I have multi unit plays on Georgia and Auburn tomorrow.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Good cap in game.

I got fukked in that 3rd quarter. They score 90 seconds too late to cost me 5 bills. Took this dumb ass coach Riley 4 quarters to finally run the damn ball. They've been getting yards in chunks on the ground but kept passing like idiots. Freaking Friday football. I know better.

Ilike UGA and Auburn tomorrow. Good looking out

[Mac4Lyfe]

Early morning plays
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44 Football - 122 NC State -14 -108 for Game
45 Football - 135 Houston U -13½ -108 for Game
46 Football - 117 South Florida -21 -104 for Game
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[Mac4Lyfe]

Love this added play. Muschamp has had some success against Sumlin but I think this is the game for payback. USC's offense is a mess and TAM can put up points and are physical at the LOS.

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47 Football - 168 Texas A&M -4½ -110 for 1st Half
48 Football - 168 Texas A&M -8 -110 for Game
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[xdodger19]

Here is a scouting report on Georgia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLtZC79ZIcM

Texas A&M maybe win like 38-27

[Mac4Lyfe]

Here is a scouting report on Georgia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLtZC79ZIcM

Texas A&M maybe win like 38-27

I really want to play UGA but not ready to pull the trigger. UGA/UT winner has been by less than a TD the last 7 straight years. Rivalry game on the road, this is where UGA seems to always find a way to lose.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Houston/Temple line keeps coming down. Not sure why other than Houston has a QB controversy. I'm loading up more as I don't believe in Temple at all.

The more I look at Vanderbilt, the more I think they are overrated off the KState win. I'm fading Vandy and KState today and putting Baylor/Florida in a few parlays.

Added plays
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49 Football - 177 Vanderbilt team total under 15½ -120 for Game
50 Football - 139 Baylor +14.5 -108 for Game
51 Football - 178 Florida -9.5 -108 for Game
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[Mac4Lyfe]

I'm not liking the Cuse/NC State game. Cuse looks to be the play here. I'm cancelling this play, too many other games today.

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44 Football - 122 NC State -14 -108 for Game
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[Mac4Lyfe]

Added evening plays - 2 BOLDED
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52 Football - 198 Alabama -17½ -110 for 1st Half
53 Football - 190 Auburn -4½ -110 for 1st Half
54 Football - 190 Auburn -7 -113 for Game
55 Football - 169 Troy team total over 7 +105 for 1st Half
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[Mac4Lyfe]

Here is a scouting report on Georgiahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLtZC79ZIcM
Texas A&M maybe win like 38-27

[shadymcgrady]

Let's go mac! Lookin pretty decent so far on that day. This guy knows football

[Mac4Lyfe]

Let's go mac! Lookin pretty decent so far on that day. This guy knows football

Thanks Shady. I'm wishing I would have bet more money today. I really wanted to put a bunch on Troy but backed off a bit. They might win this game. Still early but they are winning the line of scrimmage. I really need TAM to cover this 1st half.

[shadymcgrady]

Mac, I've noticed that your football knowledge rly comes into play with the smaller schools like troy over the years.

Always on the right side of them, especially as we get into the season. No need to pile on, you'll start winning as usual once the season gets in full swing

[Mac4Lyfe]

Mac, I've noticed that your football knowledge rly comes into play with the smaller schools like troy over the years.
Always on the right side of them, especially as we get into the season. No need to pile on, you'll start winning as usual once the season gets in full swing

Thanks Shady - I seem to do better with the smaller schools for some strange reason. Maybe because the lines aren't so tight. I can't do anything right in the NFL right now. I'm ready to throw darts. I need to spend more time capping the NFL. I've just been so wrong that my compass is off. Always good to see you.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Early bet for next week
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56 Football - 409 Alabama -25½ -108 for Game
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This line opened at -22 and has already ballooned. It might close closer to 30 at the end of the week. TAM's offense is stuck in the mud, going against a very physical Bama team. Bama's offense has been improving each week and the defense is playing with an edge after having a come to Jesus meeting 2 weeks ago. I'm a bit worried with Bama's health at LB but they should be able to hold up well against a 1 dimensional Aggie offense.

Don't overthink the room. Bama most likely covers this line at halftime.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I've been so behind in keeping up my record

Week 4 results CFB

27 Football - 305 Virginia +13 -108 for Game Won outright
28 Football - 329 West Virginia -22½ -108 for Game What a kick in the nuts
29 Football - 328 Tennessee U -28 -108 for Game What a train wreck of a program
30 Football - 321 NC State +10½ -108 for Game Won outright
31 Football - 316 Georgia Tech -9½ -108 for Game
32 Football - 401 Oklahoma -28 -108 for Game OU really did not look good here
33 Football - 314 Purdue +6½ +100 for 1st Half Won the first half outright
34 Football - 380 Vanderbilt +12½ -115 for 1st Half Wow, what a beatdown
35 Football - 404 California +9½ -105 for 1st Half Good first half for Cal
36 Football - 404 California +16½ -108 for Game Lost the game in the 4^th quarter
37 Football - 395 Florida Intl +100 for Game Scrappy team
38 Football - 367 Syracuse +13½ -105 for 1st Half LSU’s decline is real
39 Football - 331 Florida -130 for 1st Half
40 Football - 373 Auburn -18 -108 for Game Covered this line at halftime

Total for the week: 9-4, 5-2 on BOLDED plays

Total on the season
24-15-2 (61.5%), 10-7 (58.5%) on BOLDED plays

[Mac4Lyfe]

Week 5 results CFB

41 Football - 108 Nebraska vs Illinois under 24 -115 for 1st Half
42 Football - 108 Illinois +3 -105 for 1st Half Illini is just an awful team
43 Nebraska Spread -½ +105 for 3rd Quarter So I back NB in the 3^rd and they go awful too
44 Football - 122 NC State -14 -108 for Game Good thing I cancelled this fishy line
45 Football - 135 Houston U -13½ -108 for Game What a bad beat in the last quarter
46 Football - 117 South Florida -21 -104 for Game Defense is shaky but offense is good
47 Football - 168 Texas A&M -4½ -110 for 1st Half Fukk you Sumlin
48 Football - 168 Texas A&M -8 -110 for Game I mean really fukk you Sumlin
49 Football - 177 Vanderbilt team total under 15½ -120 for Game Vanderbilt may soon on autofade
50 Football - 139 Baylor +14.5 -108 for Game Baylor better than their betting lines
51 Football - 178 Florida -9.5 -108 for Game Offense still sputtering and defense ??
52 Football - 198 Alabama -17½ -110 for 1st Half Just beating teams into the dirt. Injuries may slow them down though
53 Football - 190 Auburn -4½ -110 for 1st Half Another team that is starting to lay the wood
54 Football - 190 Auburn -7 -113 for Game
55 Football - 169 Troy team total over 7 +105 for 1st Half Cashed ML and Live bets on this game


8-6, 5-2 on BOLDED plays

Season totals
32-21-2 (60.4%), 15-9 (62.5%) on BOLDED plays

[Mac4Lyfe]

2 more early CFB bets for next week. Locked and loaded

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57 Football - 385 Georgia -16 -108 for Game
58 Football - 305 Louisville -3 +105 Selling ½ Pts for Game
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I think UGA may have a bit of a lull from last weeks great win but Vanderbilt has played 2 very physical teams back to back in Bama and Florida. Most teams do not do well after playing those matchups. Now they get an UGA team that is just as physical and this is where the wheels may fall off.

NC State usually disappoints right after they enter the top 25. They're a bit inflated after the FSU win, which is not so big now. I see this as a shootout that UL will just put up more points. Look for alternate lines as I think UL will win by 10+

[eastvan09]

I really liked Georgia the last 2 weeks. Covering -3 and -7.5 was easy for me to swallow. Now laying 16. Georgia is really on fire but.. Curious to see how the line moves.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Early leans for next week... Games in bold I'm really interested in.

Memphis 10/6/2017 6:00PM - (CST)Spread -13½ -108 for Game
BYU 10/6/2017 9:15PM - (CST) Spread +7 -108 for GameIowa 10/7/2017 11:00AM - (CST) Spread -18 -108 for Game
Central Florida 10/7/2017 7:00PM - (CST) Spread -15½ -108 for Game
Penn State 10/7/2017 11:00AM - (CST) Spread -14 -108 for Game
Virginia 10/7/2017 11:20AM - (CST) Spread -2½ -116 for Game
Syracuse 10/7/2017 11:30AM - (CST) Spread -4½ -108 for Game
Virginia Tech 10/7/2017 6:15PM - (CST) Spread -16½ -108 for Game
Maryland 10/7/2017 3:00PM - (CST) Spread +31½ -108 for Game

Clemson 10/7/2017 11:00AM - (CST) Spread -21½ -108 for Game
Michigan State 10/7/2017 6:30PM - (CST) Spread +14 -108 for GameTex San Antonio 10/7/2017 6:00PM - (CST) Spread -10 -108 for Game
Colorado 10/7/2017 7:00PM - (CST) Spread -6½ -108 for Game
West Virginia 10/7/2017 2:30PM - (CST) Spread +12½ -108 for Game
Florida Atlantic 10/7/2017 5:00PM - (CST) Spread -3½ -108 for Game
Florida 10/7/2017 2:30PM - (CST) Spread -6 -108 for Game
Houston U 10/7/2017 6:00PM - (CST) Spread -5½ -108 for Game
Wisconsin 10/7/2017 7:00PM - (CST) Spread -12 -108 for Game
Auburn 10/7/2017 11:00AM - (CST) Spread -21 -108 for Game
Kansas State 10/7/2017 6:00PM - (CST) Spread +5½ -108 for Game
Miami Florida 10/7/2017 2:30PM - (CST) Spread -3 -108 for Game

[BigdaddyQH]

You had BETTER Start explaining yourself when it comes to your alleged wagers. First, if you can sell a hook, name the book that will allow that. I do not know of any. Second, explain how you "cancel" a wager. Third, explain your funny math. Fourth. Why do you always blame someone else for your losses? Now I happen to be a person who probably wagers more in one week than you do in a season. I have probably forgotten more about college football than you will ever know. You post way too much B.s. to be believable. If you dare question how good I am, simply look at my spreadsheet in here. http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[Mac4Lyfe]

You had BETTER Start explaining yourself when it comes to your alleged wagers. First, if you can sell a hook, name the book that will allow that. I do not know of any. Second, explain how you "cancel" a wager. Third, explain your funny math. Fourth. Why do you always blame someone else for your losses? Now I happen to be a person who probably wagers more in one week than you do in a season. I have probably forgotten more about college football than you will ever know. You post way too much B.s. to be believable. If you dare question how good I am, simply look at my spreadsheet in here. http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

What do you want me to explain BDQH? I'm using Heritage. What hook are you referring to? How do I cancel a wager? Easy, eat the juice. I'm not tracking units, $ won or loss. I'm just merely making plays. I bet more than what I post in this thread. I don't put all my bets in this thread because I don't always have the time. What math is funny to you? Will I make mistakes? Most likely but I can easily correct it. I really do not care about records. If my plays suck, then it should be good fade material for everyone.

My initial thoughts for creating this thread, which I do every CFB season for like the last 8 years is to first list games that I'm leaning. At the end of the week, I choose the plays that I like and post it. If you like it, bet it. If you don't, no big deal. I'm no tout and I damn sure not going to beg someone to follow me. Which is why I don't post units. I'm not trying to influence anyone to a line. Sometimes I may buy a point, sometimes I may sell a point, sometimes I'll take a large ML dog. If my hypothesis is correct, I count it as a win. If it's not, it's a loss.

I welcome your input. If you don't like a play, feel free to chime in. If something doesn't look right, let me know. I'm the last person to claim that I'm some prognosticator. But don't come in here like a dick on how I post too much BS and how good you are??? I don't do spreadsheets because I really don't care to fill them out.

[Mac4Lyfe]

http://bigdaddyqh.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Nice record...

[Mac4Lyfe]

I really liked Georgia the last 2 weeks. Covering -3 and -7.5 was easy for me to swallow. Now laying 16. Georgia is really on fire but.. Curious to see how the line moves.

Line up to 17.5 now. Vandy is offensively inept. I don't think they can put up more than 14 points and I think UGA can put up 35. That's enough for me to back the dawgs with anything below 20 points. Vandy should be pretty beat up from the last 2 weeks as well. These next 2 games are tune ups for UGA.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Alabama line up to -26.5 now. I hate to lay large lines on the road but this smells like a blowout. TAM offense is too one sided to have a shot in this one. Bama eats up one dimensional teams. 54.5 Over has to come into play as well because Bama might cover this themselves.

Another game I'm looking at is SMU/Houston. SMU hasn't been able to win on the road the last couple of years but they usually cover. UG looked like shit against Temple which is concerning. I think both teams have adequate offenses but UH defense is better than SMU's. I think this could be a low score game in which SMU will cover or a high scoring game where UH takes over for an easy cover late.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Early morning CFB picks
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59 Football - 312 Iowa -9 -110 for 1st Half
60 Football - 406 Auburn -12 -115 for 1st Half
61 Football - 406 Auburn team total over 39 -115 for Game
62 Football - 346 Clemson -21½ -108 for Game
63 Football - 334 East Carolina +3 +105 selling ½ for Game
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[gojetsgomoxies]

Thanks Shady - I seem to do better with the smaller schools for some strange reason. Maybe because the lines aren't so tight. I can't do anything right in the NFL right now. I'm ready to throw darts. I need to spend more time capping the NFL. I've just been so wrong that my compass is off. Always good to see you.

i agree with shady's comment......... i think with your high level football background - that none of us have - and your location in texas that you are very good with teams from texas through the the SEC/ACC. and of course sunbelt and some of AAC and CUSA.

i had a theory that i think you agreed with...... teams like north texas, troy, houston, southern miss etc. can swing like crazy season to season. it's pretty easy to reload in those geographic areas... and i also think that teams like troy can have very good players. so many good black players in louisiana, alabama etc.. just come up a bit short on OL and interior DL, which is where SEC dominates.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Afternoon CFB plays
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64 Football - 343 Maryland +17 +122 selling 2 for 1st Half
65 Football - 387 West Virginia +12 -108 for Game
66 Football - 343 Maryland +31 -108 for Game
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I really like Maryland to come out strong in this one. I think they stack the box and force OSU to beat them over the top. If they can get a turnover or 2 and move the ball with the pass, they should be able to cover this 1st half easily. I think they have a good chance of winning the first half as well so +1570 ML could come into play.

WVU has a solid QB that can move the ball in the air and run some. I think this is a high scoring affair which favors the dog.

[Mac4Lyfe]

i agree with shady's comment......... i think with your high level football background - that none of us have - and your location in texas that you are very good with teams from texas through the the SEC/ACC. and of course sunbelt and some of AAC and CUSA.

i had a theory that i think you agreed with...... teams like north texas, troy, houston, southern miss etc. can swing like crazy season to season. it's pretty easy to reload in those geographic areas... and i also think that teams like troy can have very good players. so many good black players in louisiana, alabama etc.. just come up a bit short on OL and interior DL, which is where SEC dominates.

Thanks GJGM - I try to stick with what I know and see. A lot of good talent in this area and these 2nd tier teams benefit from picking up guys that the big schools can't get due to academics and off field issues. They add 1 or 2 skill players and they can give a lot of P5 teams problems.

I'm kicking myself that I took Iowa 1st half instead of for the game which looks like they'll cover easily. Problem with these first halfs is if a team comes out lethargic, it's easy to not cover if they're sleep walking. I really though Iowa was going to be smarting after last week and come out with a huge chip.