Mac's early leans 2017

[Mac4Lyfe]

any thoughts north texas +21.5 @ iowa? i think with your background and your geographic location that you have great insight on texas and surrounding cfb programs.....
btw, what has happened to rice the last few years? such a great story and they have now regressed so badly

I don't know what happened to Rice. The program was coming along real well then it seems like they started recruiting sketchy dummies to get better talent instead of smart kids that understand football.

I really like North Texas here but Iowa is so damn unpredictable. It's going to be hot as hell today and Iowa can't rush the passer and NT QB can chuck the rock, plus they have a fast tempo. Iowa offense also can go 3 and out a lot which to me is a recipe for, dare I say, an upset. If NT defense can't stop the Iowa run game and occasional play action pass, they could tire out as well. So hard to say. I like NT but I have to tread lightly. I'll probably take them 1st half and live bet them in the 2nd half if they are ruling the time of possession.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Results from week 2 BLOODY HELL

10 Football - 324 North Carolina +11½ -108 for Game
11 Football - 321 Cincinnati U +32½ -108 for Game
12 Football - 341 Indiana -4 -108 for Game
13 Football - 346 Alabama -42½ -108 for Game
14 Football - 361 San Jose State +26½ -108 for Game
15 Football - 364 Arkansas +3 -108 for Game
16 Football - 398 Arizona U pk +105 for 1st Half
17 Football - 395 Utah -5 -110 for Game

3 – 5, 1-3 on BOLDED plays. Fukk me with a telephone pole.
-------------------------------
Season total

8 - 10, 2-4 on Bolded

[Mac4Lyfe]

Are you fukkking kidding me Duke. 2 straight trips on the goal line and a missed FG and now a pick. You mutherfukkers. That was an easy cover you stupid bitches. Damn you.

[Mac4Lyfe]

3 Added afternoon games... 2 BOLDED. I like all 3 of these.

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21 Football - 115 Notre Dame -14 -108 for Game
22 Football - 129 North Carolina -10 -120 buying ½ for Game
23 Football - 157 North Texas +19½ -108 for Game
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The more I've looked at the Iowa game, the more I'm liking North Texas. Hopefully the uptempo style will keep Iowa's defense on the field a lot in 90+ degree weather. I'm throwing a cnote on +820 too. Let's get it.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Refs in the Iowa game is giving the game to Iowa right now. Absolutely sickening. 2 penalties in a row that were both horrible. Ball was tipped and they call PI. Bullshit.

[Mac4Lyfe]

N Texas playing through a lot of resilience. Their playing against the refs and Iowa. The QB just got hurt but the backup throwing darts to go up before the half. Let's go.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Refs have taken over the NTexas/Iowa game. Absolute shame as UNT really played their hearts out. I hate when home teams bring in home refs.


Added evening plays
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24 Football - 188 Mississippi St +7 -103 for Game
25 Football - 202 USC -17 -108 for Game
26 Football - 192 Vanderbilt +4½ -108 for Game
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I really want Cincinnati ML but I can't pull the trigger.

[Mac4Lyfe]

CFB week 3 Results

18 Football - 142 Duke -7 -105 for 1st Half
19 Football - 138 Memphis +1 -115 for 1st Half
20 Football - 142 Duke -11 -108 for Game
21 Football - 115 Notre Dame -14 -108 for Game
22 Football - 129 North Carolina -10 -120 buying ½ for Game
23 Football - 157 North Texas +19½ -108 for Game
24 Football - 188 Mississippi St +7 -103 for Game
25 Football - 202 USC -17 -108 for Game
26 Football - 192 Vanderbilt +4½ -108 for Game

Weekly total
7–1-1 (0.875), 3 – 1 (0.75%) on Bolded Plays

Season Total
15–11-1 (58%), 5 – 5 (50%) on Bolded Plays


Much better week. Duke screwed up the 1st half cover but at least pushed. I got real lucky Iowa took a knee on the 2 yard line at the end of the North Texas game, even though UNT was playing well for most of the game. USC still vastly overrated, even though Texas may be on the upswing.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I really want Cincinnati ML but I can't pull the trigger.

I should have pulled the trigger on Cinci. Straight cash homie.

[Mac4Lyfe]

This weeks leans...

Friday

Virginia +13 at Boise. I really like UVA here. I think they can win straight up as I do not have a lot of faith in BSU, even at home. I think UVA has the better offense and defense. The only thing that would prevent me from betting this is it being on Friday. Friday is HS football folks, not CFB. I'll probably make a small play on this one. Over 52.5 looks nice as well.

Saturday

Duke at North Carolina +2.5. Vegas has this as a toss up but I think UNC is the correct play. They have better talent but Duke is better disciplined. I think UNC can put it together at home though.

Michigan at Purdue +10, +305 ML. Smelly line alert. Play on the field says Purdue should only be 2 or 3 point dogs, if at all. This Purdue team is scrappy as hell and this feels like people are betting on name and an overrated Harbaugh. Purdue has more experienced guys playing and their depth may help in a hot muggy day. I wish the game started later, so the crowd could be more liquored up but the afternoon heat may play better for Purdue. I'm thinking about hammering this one but lets see what happens with this line the next couple of days.

NC State +13, +400 at FSU. Wow, this is another game that is calling my name. Early morning start at home for FSU where the crowd won't get there until halftime. Against an NC State team that always seem to have FSU's number. Plus, FSU has only played 1 game vs Bama where they lost Francois. So they've had to sit and possibly get rusty. NC State first half +7 and whatever the ML is a must play.

MSU +5.5 at UGA Under 48.5. I've already bet MSU +6.5 but I may be having buyer remorse. MSU blows the doors off LSU, UGA struggles against ND, so you think MSU is the play but then Vegas puts out this line. That's not good for MSU backers. UGA has a lot of talent on the defensive side and it will be very hard for MSU to run against that front. Can MSU QB pass the rock? I'm not sure. He likes to drop back and then run versus pass. UGA is going to limit that. UGA's offense may not be gang busters as well and we should see a heavy dose of run from them as well. I'm leaning Under 48.5 here.

La Tech +8, +265 ML at South Carolina Under 52.5. Hmmm, only 8 points. USC offense looked pedestrian against UK, especially when Deebo went down. Can Bentley do anything here? LA Tech has a respectable offense that can put up points. Remember when Skip Holtz left UConn HC gig to become OC at South Carolina with his dad? Remember when he said that he was promised the HC job at USC before they hire Spurrier? Well the chickens come home to roost in this one. You better believe that his kids will want to win one for him to get vindication. I like Tech, especially in the first half. This is a must see for me.

Florida -2 at UK. It's been over 30 years since UK beat UF back in 1986. All Gators know that we do not lose to UK, even when they have a quality team. This series has been competitive like 3 times in those 30 years (one game went to triple OT). Most of the time this is a blowout at halftime, like last year even though UF's offense was dog shit. For what ever reason, UK cannot get this monkey off their backs. I do not see it happening here either. UF's 4th quarter offense put up 20 points against a much better UT defense. UK DB's are awful, UF run game has been average, so I see a heavy dose of passes. UK's offense is one dimensional run and UF's defense is legit across the board. Most people slam UF for their offense but the defense and special teams are enough to win this one easily.

Syracuse +21.5 at LSU. Boy, 21 points seem like a ton of points for an LSU team that can't move the ball effectively on offense and that are horribly undisciplined. If this was an early start, I'd hammer Cuse but the Tigers Den is very tough at night, even with a slumping LSU team. I'm leaning Cuse but it's more of a fade LSU as their fanbase are very close to revolting against Orgeron.

Bama at Vanderbilt +18.5. I love Vandy in this one, especially in the 1st half. This is not your daddy's Vandy. They play tough nose defense and are hard to score on. I like them even though I think their offense won't do much in this game. I think they can limit Bama on offense as well and maybe get a turnover or 2 that will help the cover. Hopefully this is a low scoring game so that the cover is in play.

UAB at North Texas -12.5. I like NT at home in the evening air. They should manhandle UAB in the trenches. This line looks low which is the only reason it probably won't be a hammer time play.

These are only leans. I'll lock and load later.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Mac, great stuff........ thank you

[Mr KLC]

LSU star RB Derrius Guice is "very questionable" for Syracuse game, says Ed Orgeron.

[BreesIsTheGOAT]

LSU star RB Derrius Guice is "very questionable" for Syracuse game, says Ed Orgeron.

I live an hour and a half away from Baton Rouge so I hear everything local. Guice is 100% out Saturday

[Mac4Lyfe]

I live an hour and a half away from Baton Rouge so I hear everything local. Guice is 100% out Saturday

I heard he's playing... Coach O playing games??

[Wesley]

I really like a few of your leans

Bol this weekend mac

[BreesIsTheGOAT]

I heard he's playing... Coach O playing games??

Coach O being Coach O, personally announced he's out and comes back on Friday and announces he will play.

[Mac4Lyfe]

CFB week 4
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27 Football - 305 Virginia +13 -108 for Game
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I hate Friday night but I like UVA here.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Coach O being Coach O, personally announced he's out and comes back on Friday and announces he will play.

I didn't think we'd see anyone crazier than Les and they end up hiring Coach O. I'm still trying to understand anything he says.

[daneblazer]

Against you on a few of these. Not really sure what to expect from FSU, I definitely wouldn't take them. Was looking at Syracuse, North Texas, & UGA under. Want to think Vandy can keep it relatively close but just can't do it. Alabama's LB's are banged up but they go 100 deep there. Good luck

[Mac4Lyfe]

Against you on a few of these. Not really sure what to expect from FSU, I definitely wouldn't take them. Was looking at Syracuse, North Texas, & UGA under. Want to think Vandy can keep it relatively close but just can't do it. Alabama's LB's are banged up but they go 100 deep there. Good luck

It's tough to go against Bama but they look meh to me. They run a very vanilla offense and hope to overwhelm you eventually. Vandy's defense should show up for at least a half and Bama's defense may not look good for a bit with the LB's out. I also don't like the way Bama DB's don't turn their heads to find the ball. Vandy may throw a few up for grabs and get a couple freebies.

The QB for FSU looked good in practice all week. Of course that's practice but the players are excited about him playing and say it's not a dropoff from Francois. That gives me pause, so I may not play it or real low. FSU still should struggle some early, so the 1st half looks good to me.

LSU should win easily but how often do they make it easy? They just seem to derp around the field all game without any conceivable plan. We'll know real early if LSU came to play or not.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Early CFB plays - 2 Bolded
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28 Football - 329 West Virginia -22½ -108 for Game
29 Football - 328 Tennessee U -28 -108 for Game
30 Football - 321 NC State +10½ -108 for Game
31 Football - 316 Georgia Tech -9½ -108 for Game
32 Football - 401 Oklahoma -28 -108 for Game
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Riding a lot of high lines here early morning. Hopefully these teams aren't still asleep.

[Wesley]

great hit on Virginia I just needed one more minute to cash a monsterodd

[Mac4Lyfe]

^^^ Damn, that would have been epic. Man, so close.

[shadymcgrady]

Bol today mac, I like the west Virginia play

[Mac4Lyfe]

Bol today mac, I like the west Virginia play

My God. WVU started off like they were sleep walking, then they started to wake up but now Kansas is just whipping them. Where the fukk is the WVU defense? Them and UT both look like shit.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Afternoon CFB plays
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33 Football - 314 Purdue +6½ +100 for 1st Half
34 Football - 380 Vanderbilt +12½ -115 for 1st Half
35 Football - 404 California +9½ -105 for 1st Half
36 Football - 404 California +16½ -108 for Game
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Who let them dogs out, woof, woof, woof, woof...

[Mac4Lyfe]

OMG - are you kidding me WVU? Played like shit all day and get a turnover on the goal line with 3 minutes to go and can't punch it in on 3 straight downs. Then instead of kicking the FG, they go for it and can't score, losing the cover. That was some foul shit right there. Someone needs to be investigated on that shit.

[trillz]

OMG - are you kidding me WVU? Played like shit all day and get a turnover on the goal line with 3 minutes to go and can't punch it in on 3 straight downs. Then instead of kicking the FG, they go for it and can't score, losing the cover. That was some foul shit right there. Someone needs to be investigated on that shit.

Fishy stuff right there...

[Pickem2win]

OMG - are you kidding me WVU? Played like shit all day and get a turnover on the goal line with 3 minutes to go and can't punch it in on 3 straight downs. Then instead of kicking the FG, they go for it and can't score, losing the cover. That was some foul shit right there. Someone needs to be investigated on that shit.

No doubt!! I pushed on my -22 and lost on my -23. Not happy

[Mac4Lyfe]

Fishy stuff right there...

It even looked like they were discussing the shenanigans on the sideline before they went for it on 4th down. That just looked strange the entire 4 downs.

No doubt!! I pushed on my -22 and lost on my -23. Not happy

That will be on SVP's bad beats for sure.

[Wesley]

yo mac, just one quick question:

how much units do you put on your bolded plays and how much on your normals plays?

have a good, one

[Mac4Lyfe]

Evening games CFB, 2 Bolded
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37 Football - 395 Florida Intl +100 for Game
38 Football - 367 Syracuse +13½ -105 for 1st Half
39 Football - 331 Florida -130 for 1st Half
40 Football - 373 Auburn -18 -108 for Game
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[Mac4Lyfe]

yo mac, just one quick question:
how much units do you put on your bolded plays and how much on your normals plays?
have a good, one

On average about 2.5 to 1.

[shadymcgrady]

Sick to my stomach on that WVU finish

[Mac4Lyfe]

Sick to my stomach on that WVU finish

Yeah, that left a mark. 1/2 a point made a thousand dollar difference.

I should have known that would happen. WVU looked like they weren't even interested in this game from the start. Whenever I see that I know it won't end well. I should have taken the other side for a little to reduce my exposure. Oh well.